Economic Outlook: Global and India. Ajit Ranade IEEMA T & D Conclave December 12, 2014
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1 Economic Outlook: Global and India Ajit Ranade IEEMA T & D Conclave December 12, 2014
2 Global scenario
3 US expected to drive global growth in 2015 Difference from % YoY Growth October Actual October Projections Projections World Output Advanced Economies United States Euro Area Japan Emerging Economies China India Brazil Russia Global GDP growth forecast was reduced by 0.2 pp to 3.8% in 2015
4 China s economic growth is slowing 10.0 China quarterly GDP growth (% YoY) Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Expect stimulus: fiscal, monetary, trade
5 Stock Markets doing well, Commodities not 40.0% YTD Returns (%) 30.0% 20.0% 10.0% 0.0% -10.0% S&P 500 (US) Nikkei 225 (Japan) DAX Index (Germany) MSCI Emerging Markets BSE Sensex (India) IBOV(Brazil) RTS (Russia) Commodity Index -20.0% -30.0% S&P 500 (US) Nikkei 225 (Japan) DAX Index (Germany) MSCI Emerging Markets BSE Sensex (India) IBOV(Brazil) RTS (Russia) Commodity Index Indian stock markets have performed the best; rose by 33% (YTD returns) Commodity prices have trended downwards in 2014 mainly due to China s economic slowdown Iron ore and brent prices sharply fell by 43% and 27%, respectively
6 Year of the Strong Dollar. But Rupee holding Dollar Index Euro How the currencies fared during 2014 (%) Japanese Yen Australian dollar Canadian dollar Developed market currencies Brazilian Real South African Rand Turkish Lira Indonesian Rupiah Termed Fragile Five in 2013 Indian Rupee Current account Country balance as a % of GDP Russia 2.6 Eurozone 2.3 Japan India -1.7 Canada -2.8 Indonesia -3.0 Australia -3.5 Brazil -3.8 South Africa -5.2 Turkey -6.0 As of June 2014
7 Indian Economy
8 All dressed up, but there are bottlenecks
9 Mismatched infrastructure!
10 Growth recovery expected to be gradual y-o-y% Jun-12 Dec-12 Jun-13 Dec-13 Jun-14 Jun-12 Dec-12 Jun-13 Dec-13 Jun-14 Jun-12 Dec-12 Jun-13 Dec-13 Jun-14 Jun-12 Dec-12 Jun-13 Dec-13 Jun-14 GDP Agriculture Industry Services Source: CSO Manufacturing growth fell sharply to 0.1%(y-o-y) in Q2 FY15 from 3.5% previously
11 Recent strong boost from government spending Jun-12 Sep-12 Dec-12 Mar-13 Jun-13 Sep-13 Dec-13 Mar-14 Jun-14 Sep-14 Jun-12 Sep-12 Dec-12 Mar-13 Jun-13 Sep-13 Dec-13 Mar-14 Jun-14 Sep-14 Jun-12 Sep-12 Dec-12 Mar-13 Jun-13 Sep-13 Dec-13 Mar-14 Jun-14 Sep-14 Pvt. Consumption Expenditure Govt. Consumption Expenditure Gross Fixed Cap. Formation Source: CSO Gross fixed capital formation showed negligible growth of 0.02% in Q2 FY15 after recovering sharply in Q1
12 PMI shows promise 10.0 Core Sector growth rate (%YoY) Apr-11 Jul-11 Oct-11 Jan-12 Apr-12 Jul-12 Oct-12 Jan-13 Apr-13 Jul-13 Oct-13 Jan-14 Apr-14 Jul-14 Oct-14 India s manufacturing PMI rose to a 21-month high of 53.3 in November from 51.6 in October (Jan-Sep average: 51.8) Eight core industries rose to a four-month-high of 6.3% in October on the back of better output in coal, refinery products and electricity
13 Railway freight and cargo growth is healthy Source: Morgan Stanley
14 Leading indicators: still mixed signals Source: Morgan Stanley Cement production picking up gradually ; steel production decelerating
15 Revival in stalled projects Rs Billion 9,000 8,000 7,000 6,000 5,000 4,000 3,000 2,000 1,000 0 Mar-08 Sep-08 Mar-09 Sep-09 Mar-10 New investments Sep-10 Mar-11 Sep-11 Mar-12 Sep-12 Mar-13 Sep-13 Mar-14 Sep-14 Rs Billion Mar-08 Sep-08 Mar-09 Sep-09 Revived Projects Mar-10 Sep-10 Mar-11 Sep-11 Mar-12 Sep-12 Mar-13 Sep-13 Mar-14 Sep-14 Source: CMIE Stuck up investments have been revived as the policy logjam has reduced New investments sharply fell in FY12-14 but improved sentiments should reverse the trend
16 Investment projects cleared
17 Inflation trending downwards 12.0% Inflation: WPI and New CPI(%) 100% Contribution to CPI inflation 10.0% 80% 8.0% 60% 6.0% 40% 4.0% 2.0% 0.0% WPI CPI 20% 0% Jan/12 Mar/12 May/12 Jul/12 Sep/12 Nov/12 Jan/13 Mar/13 May/13 Jul/13 Sep/13 Nov/13 Jan/14 Mar/14 May/14 Jul/14 Sep/14 Jan/12 Apr/12 Jul/12 Oct/12 Jan/13 Apr/13 Jul/13 Oct/13 Jan/14 Apr/14 Jul/14 Oct/14 CPI: Miscellaneous CPI: Clothing, Bedding and Footwear CPI: Housing CPI: Fuel and Light CPI: Food, Beverages and Tobacco Contribution of food inflation to CPI remains high at 55%- 60% Lower MSP increases, moderation in rural wages and falling commodity prices would help ease inflation next year RBI expects CPI inflation to average around 6% in the next 12 months RBI has hinted towards rate cuts early next year
18 Exports growth has decelerated Exports growth (%) Imports Growth (%) Trade Balance ($ bn) (RHS) Oil Imports(%YoY) Non-oil imports(%yoy) -30% -20% -10% 0% 10% 20% 30% 40% Apr/13 Jun/13 Aug/13 Oct/13 Dec/ Feb/14 Apr/14-23 Apr-13 Jun-13 Aug-13 Oct-13 Dec-13 Feb-14 Apr-14 Jun-14 Aug-14 Oct Jun/14 Aug/14 Oct/14 India s export growth turned negative (-5%) in Oct14, for the first time since Apr14 Import growth eased to 3.6% in Oct14, on the back of reduced oil imports Gold imports stood at 17-month high of $ 4.2 bn in Oct14 (driven by festive demand)
19 India Outlook Growth around 6 to 6.5% in FY16 Inflation moderating to 6 to 6.5% Crude oil and energy (coal) prices low Possibility of rating upgrade Interest rates down by around 1% GST possibility in FY17 Risks: inflation, water management, skills Biggest reform: GST, reduce inspector raj, enhance enforcement raj
20 Thank You
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