National and Maryland Economic Outlook

Transcription

1 National and Maryland Economic Outlook Sandy Spring Bank Briefing May 28, 2014 R. Andrew Bauer Senior Regional Economist

2 What to expect in

3 What to expect in 2014 Moderate economic growth in the US and Maryland 3

4 What to expect in 2014 Moderate economic growth in the US and Maryland Consumer spending to pick up as labor markets improve 4

5 What to expect in 2014 Moderate economic growth in the US and Maryland Consumer spending to pick up as labor markets improve Opportunities for growth and expansion will continue to drive business investment but likely to be modest 5

6 What to expect in 2014 Moderate economic growth in the US and Maryland Consumer spending to pick up as labor markets improve Opportunities for growth and expansion will continue to drive business investment but likely to be modest Cuts to federal spending less of a factor restraining growth in 2014 overall but will continue to impact Maryland 6

7 What to expect in 2014 Moderate economic growth in the US and Maryland Consumer spending to pick up as labor markets improve Opportunities for growth and expansion will continue to drive business investment but likely to be modest Cuts to federal spending less of a factor restraining growth in 2014 overall but will continue to impact Maryland Housing sector recovery to continue 7

8 What to expect in 2014 Moderate economic growth in the US and Maryland Consumer spending to pick up as labor markets improve Opportunities for growth and expansion will continue to drive business investment but likely to be modest Cuts to federal spending less of a factor restraining growth in 2014 overall but will continue to impact Maryland Housing sector recovery to continue Uncertainty still an impediment to stronger growth US policy changes and regulatory uncertainty 8

9 What to expect in 2014 Moderate economic growth in the US and Maryland Consumer spending to pick up as labor markets improve Opportunities for growth and expansion will continue to drive business investment but likely to be modest Cuts to federal spending less of a factor restraining growth in 2014 overall but will continue to impact Maryland Housing sector recovery to continue Uncertainty still an impediment to stronger growth US policy changes and regulatory uncertainty Slower growth abroad 9

10 What to expect in 2014 Moderate economic growth in the US and Maryland Consumer spending to pick up as labor markets improve Opportunities for growth and expansion will continue to drive business investment but likely to be modest Cuts to federal spending less of a factor restraining growth in 2014 overall but will continue to impact Maryland Housing sector recovery to continue Uncertainty still an impediment to stronger growth US policy changes and regulatory uncertainty Slower growth abroad Inflation is expected to remain low 10

11 FOMC anticipates moderate increase in growth Source: Federal Reserve/Bureau of Economic Analysis/Haver Analytics 11

12 FOMC anticipates moderate increase in growth Source: Federal Reserve/Bureau of Economic Analysis/Haver Analytics 12

13 Surveys indicate moderate growth Source: Federal Reserve Bank of Richmond/Haver Analytics 13

14 Surveys indicate moderate growth Source: Federal Reserve Bank of Richmond/Haver Analytics 14

15 Modest personal income growth in recent years Source: Bureau of Economic Analysis/Haver Analytics 15

16 Labor market weakened in Maryland over past year Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics/Haver Analytics 16

17 Maryland Industry Growth Percent Change in Employment from a Year Ago, NSA 17

18 Maryland Industry Growth Percent Change in Employment from a Year Ago, NSA 18

19 Maryland Industry Growth Percent Change in Employment from a Year Ago, NSA 19

20 Maryland Industry Growth Percent Change in Employment from a Year Ago, NSA 20

21 Maryland Industry Growth Percent Change in Employment from a Year Ago, NSA 21

22 Maryland Professional & Business Services Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics/Haver Analytics 22

23 Maryland Professional & Business Services Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics/Haver Analytics 23

24 Maryland Professional & Business Services Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics/Haver Analytics 24

25 Maryland Professional & Business Services Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics/Haver Analytics 25

26 Labor market slowly recovering Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics/Haver Analytics 26

27 Labor market slowly recovering Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics/Haver Analytics 27

28 Unemployment and Labor Force by County Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics/Haver Analytics 28

29 Housing market continues to improve Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics/Haver Analytics 29

30 Housing market continues to improve Source: Maryland Association of Realtors/Haver Analytics 30

31 Housing market continues to improve Source: Census Bureau/Haver Analytics 31

32 Housing market continues to improve Source: FHFA/Core Logic/Haver Analytics 32

33 But challenges remain in the mortgage market Source: Mortgage Bankers Association/Haver Analytics 33

34 Serious Delinquency Rate (90+ Day & In Foreclosure) March 2014 Source: Staff calculations based on data provided by LPS Applied Analytics 34

35 Serious Delinquency Rate (90+ Day & In Foreclosure) March 2013 Source: Staff calculations based on data provided by LPS Applied Analytics 35

36 In Summary Expectations for moderate growth in 2014 A number of factors continue to restrain consumer spending & business hiring/investment Housing market recovery has taken hold & set to continue Job growth expected to improve & unemployment rate to edge lower Uncertainty remains a significant factor Regulatory uncertainty financial sector, health care, environmental Monetary policy continues to be very accommodative to promote economic growth and price stability 36

37 The views expressed here are those of the author, and do not necessarily represent those of the Federal Reserve Bank of Richmond or the Federal Reserve System. 37