NATIONAL ECONOMIC OUTLOOK

Transcription

1 November 2017 NATIONAL ECONOMIC OUTLOOK Gus Faucher Stuart Hoffman William Adams Kurt Rankin Mekael Teshome Chief Economist Senior Economic Advisor Senior Economist Economist Economist THE PNC FINANCIAL SERVICES GROUP The Tower at PNC Plaza 300 Fifth Avenue Pittsburgh, PA Job Market Quickly Bounces Back after Hurricanes with Lowest Unemployment Rate since 2000 Real GDP increased at a very good 3.0% annual rate in the third quarter despite the drag from Hurricanes Harvey and Irma, just a slight slowing from the 3.1% growth in the second quarter. On a year-earlier basis, real GDP was up 2.3% in the third quarter, close to its average pace during the current economic expansion. Consumer spending growth slowed in the third quarter to 2.4% annualized from 3.3% in the second quarter, held back by the hurricanes. Investment in housing fell 6.0%, pushed lower by the storms. Business fixed investment rose a solid 3.9%. Investment in inventories added 0.7 percentage point to growth, but is likely to subtract from growth at the end of the year. The U.S. economy added 261,000 jobs in October, bouncing back from very weak job growth in September in the wake of Hurricanes Harvey and Irma. The October increase was below the consensus expectation of 315,000 jobs. September jobs were revised higher, however, from a loss of 33,000 to a small gain of 18,000. August job growth was also revised higher, by 39,000, to an increase of 208,000, for a very large combined upward revision of 90,000. Over the past three months, averaging through the hurricanes, the U.S. economy has added 162,000 jobs per month, very close to the average of 168,000 for all of This is down from the pace of 187,000 jobs per month in The unemployment rate fell to 4.1% in October from 4.2% in September; this is the lowest unemployment rate since December The hurricanes appear to have had little impact on the unemployment rate over the past couple of months. President Donald Trump nominated current Federal Reserve Governor and former investment banker and Treasury Department official Jerome Powell to be chair of the Federal Reserve Board when current chair Janet Yellen s term expires early next year. Mr. Powell is a continuity choice, with monetary policy likely to be similar to that under Ms. Yellen. The Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) is expected to continue along the path of gradual rate increases as has been the case over the past couple of years. Mr. Powell should be easily confirmed by the Senate, given that he is currently on the Board, has received bipartisan support previously (he is a Republican, but was appointed to the Board by President Barack Obama), and represents continuity with Ms. Yellen. Table 1 Baseline U.S. Economic Outlook Summary* 1Q17 2Q17 3Q17F 4Q17F 1Q18F 2Q18F 3Q18F 4Q18F F 2018F 2019F Output & Prices Real GDP (Chained 2009 Billions $) Percent Change Annualized CPI ( = 100) Percent Change Annualized Labor Markets Payroll Jobs (Millions) Percent Change Annualized Unemployment Rate (Percent) Interest Rates (Percent) Federal Funds Treasury Note, 10-year F=forecast * Please see Table 2, page 2, for more forecast series. Source: PNC, Federal Reserve, Bureau of Labor Statistics, Bureau of Economic Analysis pnc.com

2 Table 2 Baseline U.S. Economic Outlook 1Q17 2Q17 3Q17F 4Q17F 1Q18F 2Q18F 3Q18F 4Q18F F 2018F 2019F Output Nominal GDP (Billions $) Percent Change Annualized Real GDP (Chained 2009 Billions $) Percent Change Annualized Pers. Consumption Expenditures Percent Change Annualized Nonresidential Fixed Investment Percent Change Annualized Residential Investment Percent Change Annualized Change in Private Inventories Net Exports Government Expenditures Percent Change Annualized Industrial Prod. Index (2012 = 100) Percent Change Annualized Capacity Utilization (Percent) Prices CPI ( = 100) Percent Change Annualized Core CPI Index ( = 100) Percent Change Annualized PCE Price Index (2009 = 100) Percent Change Annualized Core PCE Price Index (2009 = 100) Percent Change Annualized GDP Price Index (2009 = 100) Percent Change Annualized Crude Oil, WTI ($/Barrel) Labor Markets Payroll Jobs (Millions) Percent Change Annualized Unemployment Rate (Percent) Average Weekly Hours, Prod. Works Personal Income Average Hourly Earnings ($) Percent Change Annualized Real Disp. Income (2009 Billions $) Percent Change Annualized Housing Housing Starts (Ths., Ann. Rate) Ext. Home Sales (Ths., Ann Rate) New SF Home Sales (Ths., Ann Rate) Case/Shiller HPI (Jan = 100) Percent Change Year Ago Consumer Household Economic Stress Index* Auto Sales (Millions) Consumer Credit (Billions $) Percent Change Annualized Interest Rates (Percent) Prime Rate Federal Funds Month Treasury Bill Year Treasury Note Year Fixed Mortgage F=forecast *PNC Household Economic Stress Index (HESI) = Unemployment Rate + CPI % change year earlier Home Price Index (HPI) % change year earlier. Source: PNC, Federal Reserve, Bureau of Labor Statistics, Bureau of Economic Analysis 2 November 2017

3 Solid Growth in Holiday Spending, but Traditional Retailers Will Likely Continue to Suffer The 2018 holiday season will likely be a good one, with solid economic fundamentals supporting moderate growth in consumer purchases. But traditional retailing, which has been under increasing pressure in recent months from the movement toward online sales, will probably continue to struggle, and employment in retail will likely continue to fall. Consumers are in good shape going into the holiday season. Abstracting from the hurricanes, the U.S. economy is now adding around 165,000 jobs per month, about double the number needed to keep up with long-run growth in the number of job seekers. Thus the slack in the job market that has persisted since the Great Recession is steadily receding, with the unemployment rate falling to 4.1% in October, its lowest in almost 17 years. In turn, the tighter labor market is helping boost workers pay. Wage growth has been disappointing throughout this expansion, but we believe there are encouraging signs that low unemployment and increasing competition for employees is finally leading businesses to raise pay, looking through hurricane-related distortions. More jobs and higher wages give households more money to spend on holiday purchases. There are other big supports to holiday spending in Even with higher energy prices this year inflation is very low, giving consumers more buying power. Record-high stock prices and rising home values have boosted household wealth, loosening up purse strings. Low interest rates make borrowing cheap for big ticket items, and households have historically low levels of debt. There is also the possibility of personal income tax cuts over the next year that would free up more cash. Given all of this, it is not surprising that consumer confidence measures are near their highest levels in decades. PNC is expecting holiday spending growth in 2017 of about 4.5% compared to With low inflation, about 3.5 percentage points of this will likely be an increase in volumes, and about 1 percentage point will probably come from higher prices. We think this will be somewhat stronger than the increase in spending in Traditional retailers will likely get little benefit from stronger holiday sales, however. In part this is because consumer spending generally is moving toward services and away from goods. But more important is the rapid shift to online spending. Sales at non-store retailers are increasing at a double-digit pace, while sales at traditional department stores are growing much more slowly. As a result, the retail industry is contracting. Employment in retail trade, which increased steadily through the economic expansion, has fallen in eight of the past nine months, and is down by more than 100,000 from its peak earlier this year. Although retailers will temporarily boost staffing for the holiday season, employment at traditional brick and mortar stores should steadily decline over the longer run. In addition, vacancy rates for retail space will probably remain much higher than for other commercial property types. However, online sales will likely continue to create new jobs in industries such as information technology, transportation, and warehousing, and we believe overall U.S. employment will steadily increase. The U.S. economy is in solid shape at the end of 2017 and should continue to improve well into With a good holiday season consumer spending will likely remain the bedrock for the expansion. Housing, business investment, and an expanding global economy are all positives for near-term growth, in our view, and rebuilding in the wake of Hurricanes Harvey and Irma should help contribute in late 2017 and early We believe Congress is likely to pass corporate and personal income tax cuts that could provide a temporary boost to growth in Real GDP will likely increase by 2.3% in 2017, accelerating to 2.7% next year. Job gains should gradually slow over the next few years, from around 165,000 per month currently to 115,000 per month by 2019, as businesses find it more and more difficult to hire as the labor market further tightens. The unemployment rate will probably fall a bit, bottoming out at around 3.7% in 2020; as a result wage growth will gradually accelerate, supporting continued growth in consumer spending. Inflation pressures will likely gradually build, and the FOMC will likely raise the federal funds rate in December of this year, and then three times next year. Visit to view the full listing of economic reports published by PNC s economists. 3

4 Chart 1 After a Hurricane Hit in September, Job Growth Bounces Back in October 3-Month Moving Average, Housands Monthly Change in Employment -100 Establishment Survey -200 Household Survey Source: Bureau of Economic Analysis Chart 3 Two Straight Quarters of 3% GDP Growth, but Softer on Year-over-Year Basis (As of 3Q2017) Real GDP, Annualized Percentage Change Source: Bureau of Economic Analysis Chart 5 With Recovery in Manufacturing, Broad-Based Job Growth in 2017 Percentage Change, Year Earlier Employment 0-1 Construction -2 Manufacturing Services, Excluding Government Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics Chart 2 Job Losses at Restaurants in September, Recovery in October, Have Skewed Wage Data Percentage Change Year Earlier Average Hourly Earnings (L) Unemployment Rate (R) Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics Chart 4 Output is Recovering from Hurricane-Related Losses (As of 9/30/17) Percentage Change Industrial Production (L) Capacity Utilization (R) /13 7/13 1/14 7/14 1/15 7/15 1/16 7/16 1/17 7/17 Source: Federal Reserve Chart 6 Gradually Rising House Prices are Boosting Household Wealth (As of 8/31/17) Percentage Change, Year Earlier FHFA Purchase Only Case- Shiller 20-City Source: Federal Housing Finance Agency, Standard & Poor s Percent Percent 4 November 2017

5 Chart 7 Home Sales Bounce Back in September Following Hurricanes (As of 9/30/17) Annual Rate, Thousands 5,200 5,000 4,800 4,600 4,400 4,200 4,000 3,800 3,600 3,400 3,200 Existing Single-Family Home Sales (L) New Single-Family Home Sales (R) 3, Source: National Association of Realtors Chart 9 Core Inflation Picked Up in October, Set to Accelerate in 2018 Percentage Change, Year Earlier Producer Price Index Consumer Price Index (CPI) Core CPI Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics Annual Rate, Thousands Chart 8 Hurricane Rebuilding Will Boost Fourth-Quarter Housing Starts (As of 9/30/17) Seasonally Adjusted Annualized Rate, Thousands 1,400 1,350 1,300 1,250 1,200 1,150 1,100 1,050 1,000 Permits Starts Completions Source: Census Bureau Chart 10 Gasoline Prices Fell in October as Gulf Coast Refineries Came Back Online Dollars per Barrel Brent Crude Oil (L) 40 Unleaded Gasoline (R) Source: Bloomberg L.P Dollars per Gallon Chart 11 Consumer Spending Surged in September with Higher Gasoline Prices (As of 9/30/17) Percentage Change Real After-Tax Income -0.2 Real Personal Consumption Expenditure /14 7/14 1/15 7/15 1/16 7/16 1/17 7/17 Source: Bureau of Economic Analysis Chart 12 Falling Gas Prices Restrained Retail Sales Growth in October, but Solid Details Percentage Change Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics Retail Sales Total Excluding Auto Excluding Auto, Gasoline 5

6 Chart 13 Another Great Month for Auto Sales in October Annualized Rate, Millions 20 Auto and Light Truck Sales (Domestic & Foreign) 19 Auto and Light Truck Assemblies (Domestic Only) Source: Bureau of Economic Analysis Chart 14 Expansion Likely to Continue in 2018 with Low Household Economic Stress (As of 8/31/17) Note: PNC calculates Household Economic Stress Index (HESI) with the Case-Shiller 20-City Composite Home Price Index -4 HESI = Unemployment Rate + CPI Inflation - House Price Growth Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics, Federal Housing Finance Agency, PNC, Standard & Poor s 6 November 2017

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