Stronger Q2, Less Drag from Energy, Labor Stutter Freezes Fed

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1 Economic Outlook: C Balance of Risk: Stronger Q, Less Drag from Energy, Labor Stutter Freezes Fed Recent economic data has generally been positive. The very weak first quarter real GDP growth has been revised up from the initial estimate of. percent annualized, to.8 percent. We expect to see another minor upward revision to GDP on June 8. Consumer spending in April was strong, gaining. percent after accounting for higher prices, a significant support to Q GDP growth. We expect the current quarter to show a moderate rebound in real GDP growth, up to about. percent, supported by stronger consumer spending and less drag from the energy sector. In early June, the rig count increased for the first time since last August. However, the May employment report from the Bureau of Labor Statistics landed with a thud. According to the BLS, only 8, net new payroll jobs were added to the economy in May, well below expectations. This could turn out to be an anomalous report, and it is reasonable to expect some bounce back in the June labor data, due out July 8. However, there is enough corroboration outside the June employment report to take the miss seriously. First, job growth in the ADP employment report has been trending down. We have been expecting a similar downtrend in the official BLS data. We could be seeing the start of a downtrend with the last two months of payroll data, when April saw a gain of just 1, jobs, followed by May s very weak 8,. Second, productivity growth has been very weak. Recent weak productivity growth has been an important debate topic amongst economists. University of Chicago economist Robert Gordon recently published a book focusing on productivity. productivity growth was just. percent in 1Q1 versus 1Q1. A pickup in GDP growth in Q, plus weak hiring over the quarter, could mark the reset in productivity growth that some economists have been waiting for. Third, both the May ISM Manufacturing Index and the May ISM Non-Manufacturing Index showed employment sub-indexes below, indicating a contraction in employment for the month. As is often the case, the May employment report went in two directions at once, showing weak job growth combined with a noticeable step down in the unemployment rate, from. percent in April, down to.7 percent in May. Strong increases in the labor force have kept the unemployment rate stable near. percent since last September. In May, the labor force gains reversed, bringing the unemployment rate down despite weak hiring. Timing is everything. The weak May employment report, released just 1 days before the upcoming Federal Open Market Committee meeting, over June 1 and 1, will likely keep an interest rate increase on hold. We still think that a fed funds rate increase for July 7 is on the table. But the economic data will need to be solid in front of that meeting. The upcoming BREXIT vote in the United Kingdom is also an issue for the Fed. The STAY camp is still ahead in the polls, but their lead is narrowing. A LEAVE vote is viewed as economically destabilizing in the near term for both the UK and the EU. Janet Yellen s speech in Philadelphia on June gave her an opportunity to set market expectations for the upcoming FOMC meeting. Her speech was generally positive, but highlighted several areas of uncertainty including the weak May employment data. Yellen s optimistic but cautious speech was consistent with no rate hike in June, but also consistent with the possibility of a rate hike at the end of July if the data is supportive. Q'1a 1Q'1a Q'1f Q'1f Q'1f 1Q'17f Q'17f Q'17f 1a 1f 17f Real GDP (Percent Change Annualized ) CPI (Percent Change Year-over-Year) Payroll Jobs (Average Monthly Diff., Ths.) Unemployment Rate (Percent) Federal Funds Rate (Effective) Yr. Treasury Rate a = actual f = forecast Economic Outlook, Summary

2 June 1 1 Q1 GDP Growth Revised Up to.8% Real GDP, Percent Change Annualized Non-Res. Fixed Investment Res. Fixed Investment Inventories Net Exports Government Trade, Inventories and Investment Drag Q1 GDP Contribution to GDP 1Q 1Q 1Q 1Q1-1 Source: BEA 11Q1 1Q1 1Q1 1Q1 1Q1 1Q1 Consumer Spending Source: BEA -1 1 May Payrolls Disappoint, Up Just 8k Jobs Rebound in Energy Prices Boosts Inflation 8 7 Unemployment Rate, Percent (R) Percent Change Year Ago Core CPI CPI PPI Total Nonfarm Employment (L) Total Employed (Household Survey) (L) J'1 J'1 J'1 Source: BLS Source: BLS J'1 J'1 J' Dollar Strengthened on Fed Outlook in May Canadian Dollar per USD (L) Mexican Peso per USD (R) Euro per USD (L) Source: Federal Reserve J'1 J'1 J' Starts and Permits Rebound in April SAAR, Thousands Source: Census Bureau J'1 J'1 J'1 Housing Completions Housing Permits Housing Starts Existing Home Sales Improved This Spring May Auto Sales Little Changed at 17. mln,, Source: NAR Auto and light truck sales, SAAR, mil.,, ,8 1 1, 1 1, J'1 J'1 J'1 Existing Home Sales, Ths. SAAR (L) Case Shiller Comp - HPI (R) 1 1 J'1 J'1 J'1 Source: MotorIntelligence Subscribe to economics publications at: Archives available at

3 June 1 Q'1a 1Q'1a Q'1f Q'1f Q'1f 1Q'17f Q'17f Q'17f 1a 1f 17f Output Nominal GDP (Billions $) Percent Change Annualized Real GDP (Chained 9 Billions $) Percent Change Annualized Pers. Consumption Expenditures Percent Change Annualized Nonresidential Fixed Investment Percent Change Annualized Residential Investment Percent Change Annualized Change in Private Inventories Net Exports Government Expenditures Percent Change Annualized Industrial Prod. Index (7=1) Percent Change Annualized Capacity Utilization (Percent) Prices CPI (198-8=1) Percent Change Annualized PCE Price Index (9=1) Percent Change Annualized GDP Price Index (9=1) Percent Change Annualized Producer Price Index, Finished Goods Percent Change Annualized Crude Oil, WTI ($/barrel) Labor Markets Payroll Jobs (Average Monthly Diff., Ths.) Unemployment Rate (Percent) Average Weekly Hours, Prod. Works Population (Millions) Percent Change Annualized Personal Income Average Hourly Earnings ($) Percent Change Annualized Real Disp. Income (9 Billions $) Percent Change Annualized Personal Saving Rate (Percent) Housing Housing Starts (Ths., Ann. Rate) Ext. SF Home Sales (Ths., Ann Rate) New SF Home Sales (Ths., Ann Rate) Case/Shiller HPI (Jan. =1) Consumer Household Economic Stress Index Auto Sales (Millions) Interest Rates (percent per year) Federal Funds Rate (Effective) Prime Rate Month LIBOR Month LIBOR Yr. Treasury Rate Yr. Treasury Rate Yr. Treasury Rate Year Fixed Rate Mortgage a = actual f = forecast June, 1 Subscribe to economics publications at: Archives available at

4 February 18, 1 Resilient Faces Ongoing Stress The economy has been remarkably resilient in the face of extreme pressure on its large oil and gas sector. Unfortunately, we expect to see more pressure from low oil prices at least through the first half of this year. Labor metrics shifted in the metro area in 1. Following strong and steady monthly job growth in 1, saw increasingly choppy data through 1. While still overall positive for the year, four months in 1 showed net job losses and one month was close to zero. Still, year-over-year job growth in the metro area was.8 percent in December, positive, but well below the peak. percent yearover-year growth from November 1, and below the average of. percent for the month. The area unemployment rate reached a low of. percent in February 1, and then increased to. percent by December. Going forward, we except to see more consistent net job losses for through the first half of 1, bringing the unemployment rate up to.8 percent in the third quarter of this year. Our metro area forecast is largely contingent on our oil price outlook. We currently expect the price for WTI crude oil to increase to about $ per barrel by year end. If this turns out to be an optimistic forecast, we would expect the economy to show even bigger net job losses through this year. While we are hopeful that oil prices are currently in a bottoming-out process, we believe that it is still too early to say that we have reached a bottom in oil prices. Global demand remains softer than expected while production remains stronger than expected. The recent lifting of the crude oil export ban is good news for Texas, but it does not alter the fundamental reality of an oversupplied global oil market. What it does is allow producers access to markets that are currently being supplied by higher priced oil. One impact of crude oil exports will be to put even more pressure on high cost production globally, including Canadian tar sands production and North Sea production. MSA Economic Outlook Q'1a 1Q'1f Q'1f Q'1f Q'1f 1Q'17f Q'17f Q'17f 1a 1f 17f Labor and Demographics Payroll Jobs (Thousands) Percent Change Annualized Unemployment Rate (Percent) Population (Thousands) Percent Change Annualized Net Migration (Thousands) Personal Income Total Personal Income (Nom., Millions $) Percent Change Annualized Housing Housing Starts (Total, Ann. Rate) Percent Change Annualized SF Housing Starts (# of Units, Ann Rate) MF Housing Starts (# of Units, Ann Rate) House Prices, FHFA (199 Q1=1, NSA) Bankruptcies Total Business (1 Months Ending) Total Personal (1 Months Ending) a = actual f = forecast

5 9:Q1 9:Q1 9:Q1 9:Q1 9:Q1 9:Q1 Job Growth Cooling Nonfarm Payrolls, 1 1 House Price Gains to Moderate FHFA Home Price Index, Source: FHFA, Comerica Bank 1 1 Income To Lag Personal Income, 1 9 Bankruptcies to Increase Business Bankruptcies, Total 1-Mos. Ending 1, 11, 8 7 Personal (R) 1, 9, - Business (L) 8, -1-1 Source: BEA, Comerica Bank Source: District Courts, Comerica Bank 7,, Housing Markets Cool Total Housing Starts, Annual Rate, ths (R) Labor Slack to Increase Unemployment Rate, Percent (L) Source: Census Bureau, Comerica Bank MSA is a Comerica Economics designation of the -The Woodlands-SugarLand metropolitan statistical area (MSA), as defined by the Office of Management and Budget (OMB). The 1 OMB definition of the -The Woodlands-SugarLand MSA consists of Austin, Brazoria, Chambers, Fort Bend, Galveston, Harris, Liberty, Montgomery and Waller counties.

6 November, 1 Faces Ongoing Energy Sector Consolidation There is much more to the economy than the price of oil, but the low price of oil continues to weigh heavily on the center of the North American oil market. Perversely, the Paris terrorist attacks may have provided some support for global oil prices, but downside momentum may continue as inventories of both crude and refined products increase. The price of West Texas intermediate crude oil is approaching $/barrel and may retest the late-august low. Natural gas prices also remain exceptionally weak at $. per mmbtu. Job growth in the metro area has clearly stepped down from the vigorous 8,1 net new payroll jobs per month average of 1. Through September, the 1 monthly average is a weak net new jobs per month. And this disguises the four months of net job losses seen so far this year. We expect the metro area economy to shed jobs on a net basis more consistently from the fourth quarter of 1 through the second quarter of 1, and the unemployment rate to increase through the third quarter of 1. Five smaller -based energy companies appear on the Security and Exchange Commission s list of distressed companies. The proposed Halliburton-Baker Hughes merger will likely not be approved by the Department of Justice until late-november. According to the Business Journal, Halliburton could cut as many as, jobs worldwide after the deal is finalized. office construction has already slowed down considerably, with new projects down percent this fall from one year ago. We expect residential construction to also cool through next year. Good news for came from the University of Texas, which announced plans to build a acre research facility in southwest. Also, a high speed rail terminal site appears to be one step closer for after the Federal Railroad Administration eliminated a downtown site, apparently favoring a site at the intersection of Highway 9 and Loop 1. Construction on the rail system could begin in 17. MSA Economic Outlook Q'1a Q'1f 1Q'1f Q'1f Q'1f Q'1f 1Q'17f Q'17f 1a 1f 1f Labor and Demographics Payroll Jobs (Thousands) Percent Change Annualized Unemployment Rate (Percent) Population (Thousands) Percent Change Annualized Net Migration (Thousands) Personal Income Total Personal Income (Nom., Millions $) Percent Change Annualized Housing Housing Starts (Total, Ann. Rate) Percent Change Annualized SF Housing Starts (# of Units, Ann Rate) MF Housing Starts (# of Units, Ann Rate) House Prices, FHFA (199 Q1=1, NSA) Bankruptcies Total Business (1 Months Ending) Total Personal (1 Months Ending) a = actual f = forecast

7 9:Q1 9:Q1 9:Q1 9:Q1 9:Q1 9:Q1 Job Growth Cooling Nonfarm Payrolls, 1 1 House Price Gains to Moderate FHFA Home Price Index, Source: FHFA, Comerica Bank 1 1 Income To Lag Personal Income, 1 9 Bankruptcies to Increase Business Bankruptcies, Total 1-Mos. Ending 1, 11, 8 7 Personal (R) 1, 9, - Business (L) 8, -1-1 Source: BEA, Comerica Bank Source: District Courts, Comerica Bank 7,, Housing Markets Cool Total Housing Starts, Annual Rate (L), ths (R) Source: Census Bureau, Comerica Bank Labor Slack to Increase Unemployment Rate, Percent MSA is a Comerica Economics designation of the -The Woodlands-SugarLand metropolitan statistical area (MSA), as defined by the Office of Management and Budget (OMB). The 1 OMB definition of the -The Woodlands-SugarLand MSA consists of Austin, Brazoria, Chambers, Fort Bend, Galveston, Harris, Liberty, Montgomery and Waller counties.

8 September, 1 Energy Sector Consolidation Weighs on Lower for longer is a painful refrain for the metro area, as the regional economy adjusts to ongoing low oil prices. After bouncing off the high s, West Texas intermediate crude oil has settled near $ per barrel for most of September. However, the global forces of supply and demand for crude oil may not yet be in a sustainable equilibrium. On the supply side we see consistent evidence of declining production over the summer, but we also see ongoing strong production from OPEC members as well as the expectation for more output from Iran. On the demand side, developed economies around the world, including the, simply do not need any more oil to continue expanding, due to the deep penetration of energy efficient technology. Suppliers look to developing economies for increased crude oil demand, and many developing economies, including China and Brazil, are cooling down. Some relief may come to Texas in the form of the end of crude oil export restrictions. The House of Representatives Energy and Commerce Committee approved a bill to end the ban on crude oil exports that dates back to the Nixon administration. The Energy Information Agency has recently released a study in support of the ending the ban. Even at current low oil prices, crude oil exports would help to bolster the liquidity of many stressed energy-related companies. Nonetheless, we will see still more signs of pain in the energy-sector this fall and winter. Stressed companies will be facing tightening credit availability even as protection from hedges rolls off. Ongoing consolidation in the energy sector will result in more cuts to operations and employment, and those will have further spillover effects on the rest of the state and regional economy. We expect the metro area economy to show small net jobs losses through the middle of next year. We expect to see softer conditions for area real estate markets in the months ahead. MSA Economic Outlook Q'1a Q'1f Q'1f 1Q'1f Q'1f Q'1f Q'1f 1Q'17f 1a 1f 1f Labor and Demographics Payroll Jobs (Thousands) Percent Change Annualized Unemployment Rate (Percent) Population (Thousands) Percent Change Annualized Net Migration (Thousands) Personal Income Total Personal Income (Nom., Millions $) Percent Change Annualized Housing Housing Starts (Total, Ann. Rate) Percent Change Annualized SF Housing Starts (# of Units, Ann Rate) MF Housing Starts (# of Units, Ann Rate) House Prices, FHFA (199 Q1=1, NSA) Bankruptcies Total Business (1 Months Ending) Total Personal (1 Months Ending) a = actual f = forecast

9 9:Q1 9:Q1 9:Q1 9:Q1 9:Q1 9:Q1 Job Growth Cooling Nonfarm Payrolls, 1 1 House Price Gains to Moderate FHFA Home Price Index, Source: FHFA, Comerica Bank 1 1 Income To Lag Personal Income, 11 1 Bankruptcies to Increase Business Bankruptcies, Total 1-Mos. Ending 1, 11, Business (L) Personal (R) 1, 9, 8, -1-1 Source: BEA, Comerica Bank Source: District Courts, Comerica Bank 7,, Housing Markets Cool Total Housing Starts, Annual Rate, ths (R) (L) Source: Census Bureau, Comerica Bank Labor Slack to Increase Unemployment Rate, Percent MSA is a Comerica Economics designation of the -The Woodlands-SugarLand metropolitan statistical area (MSA), as defined by the Office of Management and Budget (OMB). The 1 OMB definition of the -The Woodlands-SugarLand MSA consists of Austin, Brazoria, Chambers, Fort Bend, Galveston, Harris, Liberty, Montgomery and Waller counties.

10 May 1, 1 Energy Sector in Consolidation s energy sector is consolidating in response to the reset in the global oil market. Drilling, engineering and service companies are reducing operating budgets and reducing staff by the thousands. Not only are drilling crews idled, but everything from automobile sales to shipping activity is being affected. crude oil production appears to be levelling out after ramping up sharply since 9. Inventories of crude oil in storage are also levelling out. Both are positive signs for stabilizing crude oil prices. Interestingly, some Texas drillers are preparing to bring more rigs into play is response to recently higher crude oil prices, potentially changing the production/storage relationship. This feels like an oil market that is still searching for equilibrium in terms of both prices and drilling activity. The impact of the radical changes to the energy sector on the economy are still unfolding. So far, we have seen a one-way drag since rig counts started falling at mid-year 1. Recently we have seen oil prices firming to near $, but that does not reverse the shock to the oil and gas industry and will not be enough to turn the tide of energy sector consolidation. If oil prices stabilize at $ per barrel, or increase, we expect to see global drilling activity firm up in 1, as existing production from shale reservoirs follows a rapid decline curve. The metro area added an average of 9, net new payroll jobs per month through 1. In January,,7 jobs were shed. February saw a gain of 7, and then, were lost in March. We expect to see greater jobs losses in the metro area economy in the months ahead as energy industry consolidation continues. We are forecasting a regional recession beginning in the second quarter of 1 and extending through the first quarter of 1. The length and depth of a regional recession in will be, in large part, determined by the price of oil. Our assumption is that oil prices firm up gradually over the second half of 1, to hit about $ by the end of the year. We assume that the firming oil prices would stabilize drilling activity by 1, and give area companies more confidence in their hiring by mid-year 1. Metro Economic Outlook 1Q'1a Q'1f Q'1f Q'1f 1Q'1f Q'1f Q'1f Q'1f 1a 1f 1f Labor and Demographics Payroll Jobs (Thousands) Percent Change Annualized Unemployment Rate (Percent) Population (Thousands) Percent Change Annualized Net Migration (Thousands) Personal Income Total Personal Income (Nom., Millions $) Percent Change Annualized Housing Housing Starts (Total, Ann. Rate) Percent Change Annualized SF Housing Starts (# of Units, Ann Rate) MF Housing Starts (# of Units, Ann Rate) FHFA HPI, (199 Q1=1, NSA) Bankruptcies Total Business (1 Months Ending) Total Personal (1 Months Ending) a = actual f = forecast

11 - More Layoffs in Expected in 1 Nonfarm Payrolls, - 9Q1 1Q1 11Q1 1Q1 1Q1 1Q1 1Q1 1Q Real Estate Markets Will Cool FHFA Home Price Index, Source: FHFA, Comerica Bank -1 9Q1 1Q1 11Q1 1Q1 1Q1 1Q1 1Q1 1Q1 1 1 Personal Income Growth Will Ease Personal Income, 1, 1, Credit Conditions Reflect Weaker Economy Business (R) Bankruptcies, Total 1-Mos. Ending 1, 9-11, 1, 9, 8, Personal (L) Source: BEA, Comerica Bank -1 9Q1 1Q1 11Q1 1Q1 1Q1 1Q1 1Q1 1Q1 7, Source: District Courts, Comerica Bank, 9Q1 1Q1 11Q1 1Q1 1Q1 1Q1 1Q1 1Q1 7,, Housing Starts Will Decline in a Cooling Regional Economy Housing Starts, Total, Annual Rate 1, 1,1 1 9 Unemployment to Elevate Unemployment Rate, Percent,,, (L) 1, ,, Ths (R) 1, Source: Census Bureau, Comerica Bank 9Q1 1Q1 11Q1 1Q1 1Q1 1Q1 1Q1 1Q1 7 9Q1 1Q1 11Q1 1Q1 1Q1 1Q1 1Q1 1Q1 MSA is a Comerica Economics designation of the -The Woodlands-SugarLand metropolitan statistical area (MSA), as defined by the Office of Management and Budget (OMB). The 1 OMB definition of the -The Woodlands-SugarLand MSA consists of Austin, Brazoria, Chambers, Fort Bend, Galveston, Harris, Liberty, Montgomery and Waller counties.