Gus Faucher Stuart Hoffman William Adams Kurt Rankin Chief Economist Senior Economic Advisor Senior Economist Economist.

Transcription

1 January 218 Gus Faucher Stuart Hoffman William Adams Kurt Rankin Chief Economist Senior Economic Advisor Senior Economist Economist Executive Summary Another Fed Rate Hike in December, Inflation Remains Tame The U.S. economy added 18, jobs in December, below the consensus of 188,. The private sector added 16, jobs over the month, with government employment up by 2,. There was a slight net downward revision to job growth in October and November. Job growth has been gradually slowing over the past few years: from an average of 25, per month in 21, to 226, per month in 215, to 189, per month in 216, to 171, per month in 217. Still, this is well above the pace needed to absorb new entrants into the workforce, and thus labor market slack continues to decline. The unemployment rate was.1 percent for a third straight month in December; this is the lowest the rate has been in 17 years. The broader U6 rate, which also includes the underemployed and those who would like to work but have given up looking for a job, ticked up slightly to 8.1 percent in December, and it has almost recovered to its level prior to the Great Recession. As widely expected, the Federal Open Market Committee raised the federal funds rate on December 13 by a quarter of a percentage point, to a range of 5 to percent. That was the third increase in the funds rate in 217, and the fifth since the current tightening cycle began in late 215. The statement continued to say that further increases in the fed funds rate are likely to be gradual, and that the rate is likely to remain, for some time, below levels that are expected to prevail in the longer run. The Summary of Economics Projections, or dot plot, released along with the statement implied three more increases in the federal funds rate this year. Current Federal Reserve Governor Jerome Powell was confirmed by the Senate to be the new Chair of the Federal Reserve, and will take over from Janet Yellen in February. Inflation has been steady over the past few months. The consumer price index rose.1 percent in December, with core prices (excluding food and energy) up.3 percent. On a year-ago basis overall CPI inflation was 2.1 percent in December, around where it has been since September. Core CPI inflation was 1.8 percent year-over-year in December; it has been 1.7 or 1.8 percent every month since May. The FOMC would like to see a bit stronger core inflation. It has set an inflation goal of 2 percent using a different measure, the personal consumption expenditures price index, which tends to run a bit slower than CPI inflation. Baseline U.S. Economic Outlook, Summary Table* 1Q'17a 2Q'17a 3Q'17p Q'17f 1Q'18f 2Q'18f 3Q'18f Q'18f 216a 217f 218f 219f Output & Prices Real GDP (Chained 29 Billions $ ) Percent Change Annualized CPI ( = 1 ) Percent Change Annualized Labor Markets Payroll Jobs (Millions ) Percent Change Annualized Unemployment Rate (Percent ) Interest Rates (Percent) Federal Funds Treasury Note, 1-year a = actual f = forecast p = preliminary * Please see the Expanded Table for more forecast series.

2 Job Growth Averages 171, Per Month in 217, Solid But Slower Than in 216 Establishment Survey Household Survey Monthly Change in Employment (3-month MA, ths.) -3 '12 '13 '1 '15 '16 '17 Unemployment Rate Holds at.1% for Third Straight Month; Wage Growth Still Stuck at 2.5% '7 '8 '9 '1 '11 '12 '13 '1 '15 '16 '17 New Tax Law Will Boost Near-Term Growth, But Do Little for Economy s Long-Term Prospects The U.S. economy is on solid footing heading into 218, and growth will get a boost from cuts to corporate and personal income taxes. Real GDP growth, which was 1.6 percent in 216, came in at 2.3 percent in 217, and will accelerate to 2.7 percent this year Unemployment rate, % (R) Avg. hourly earnings, % change year ago (L) Business fixed investment will lead economic growth this year. With demand continuing to improve and the tight job market making it difficult to hire, businesses are investing to make their workers more productive and increase output. Although interest rates are rising they remain low on an historical basis, encouraging borrowing for investment; good business balance sheets are another positive. Near-record corporate profits and easing access to credit will also support business investment in 218. Additional support will come from the corporate income tax cut that Congress passed and President Trump signed into law in late 217. This will boost after-tax profits and provide more cash for investing. In particular, reduced taxes on corporate profits earned abroad will encourage U.S.-based businesses to repatriate profits from overseas, providing a source of investment funding. There are also incentives in the tax bill for near-term business investment. However, the corporate tax cut is unlikely to provide much of a longer-term boost to business investment. Businesses are already making near-record corporate profits, and using much of them to fund dividend payments and stock buybacks to boost share prices. Given this, businesses are likely to use much of their tax savings to further boost dividends and buybacks, not for investment. That being said, higher equity prices will provide support to consumer spending among stockholding households. Consumer spending will also expand in 218, supporting overall economic growth. The fundamentals for households remain solid: job and income gains, low interest rates, low levels of debt relative to income, and rising wealth. Personal income tax cuts in the new law will also provide a boost. However, with higher energy prices and mediocre wage growth, household spending rose more quickly than incomes in 216 and 217, causing the savings rate to decline from above 6 percent in late 215 to 2. percent at the end of 217. A need to boost saving will restrain spending growth this year. Housing will be another positive for growth in 218. Affordability remains good with the interest rate on a 3-year fixed mortgage near percent. Lending standards have eased after they tightened dramatically following the housing bust, and single-family homeownership is coming back into favor after it plunged in the wake of the Great Recession. Rising house prices will also spur new construction, and building is getting an additional boost from reconstruction in the aftermath of Hurricanes Harvey and Irma. However, a lack of skilled construction workers will limit the improvement in homebuilding. Although growth will accelerate in 218, it will gradually return to its long-run level of around 2 percent in subsequent years. The current tax bill reduces corporate income tax rates, but will do little to boost investment that would raise the economy s capacity over the longer run. The tax code remains filled with special interest provisions that benefit favored constituencies, leading to an inefficient allocation of capital in the economy. In addition, larger budget deficits because of reduced revenues will put upward pressure on interest rates, offsetting much of the benefit of the tax cuts. The job market will continue to improve in 218. Job gains will slow, from around 17, per month in 217 to 1, per month this year, as businesses find it more and more difficult to hire as the labor market further tightens. The unemployment rate will fall a bit, bottoming out at around 3.7%. As inflation pressures gradually build the Federal Open Market Committee will raise the federal funds rate three times this year, bringing it to a range of 2. to 2.25 percent at the end of

3 Growth Picks Up From 1.6% in 216 to 2.3% in 217 Real GDP, annualized % change '13 '1 '15 '16 ' With Higher Energy Prices, Weaker Dollar, Slump in Manufacturing and Mining Is Over Capacity utilization, % (R) Industrial production, % change (L) -.8 '13 A J O '1 A J O '15 A J O '16 A J O '17 A J O Tight Labor Market Will Restrain Job Growth in Employment, % change year ago % change year ago With Moderate House Price Growth No Signs of a Bubble Case-Shiller (2-city) Construction -1 Manufacturing -2 Services, ex-government -3 '11 '12 '13 '1 '15 '16 '17-5 FHFA purchase-only '9 '1 '11 '12 '13 '1 '15 '16 '17 5,2 5,,8,6,,2, 3,8 3,6 Housing Recovery in Its Seventh Year 3, Existing single-family home sales, annual rate, ths. (L) 3,2 New single-family home sales, 3, annual rate, ths. (R) '9 '1 '11 '12 '13 '1 '15 '16 ' , 1,35 1,3 1,25 1,2 1,15 1,1 1,5 1, Homebuilding Gets a Boost From Hurricane Reconstruction, But Fundamentals Solid Too Seasonally adjusted annualized rate, ths. Permits Starts Completions 65 '13 '1 '15 '16 '17 3

4 No Signs Yet of a Pickup in Core Inflation PPI CPI Core CPI % change year ago '13 '1 '15 '16 ' Higher Oil and Gasoline Prices Pushed Up Inflation in Second Half of Brent Crude Oil, $/BBL (L) Unleaded Gasoline, $/gal (R) 3 '5 '6 '7 '8 '9 '1 '11 '12 '13 '1 '15 '16 ' Consumers Are Spending Thanks to More Jobs and Rising Wages.8 % change Real after-tax income -.2 Real pers. consumption expenditure -.3 '1 A J O '15 A J O '16 A J O '17 A J O Another Good Month for Retail Sales in December 2.1 Retail sales, % change Total -.9 Ex-auto - Ex-auto, gasoline - '1 '15 '16 ' Auto Sales Dipped Slightly in 217, But Still Above 17 Million Auto and light truck sales (domestic & foreign) Auto and light truck assemblies (domestic only) Mil., annualized rate Household Economic Stress Right at Its Long-Run Level Household Economic Stress Index HESI = Unemployment rate + CPI inflation house price growth '1 '15 '16 '17 - Note: PNC calculates HESI with the Case-Shiller 2- City Composite HPI -8 '9 '1 '11 '12 '13 '1 '15 '16 '17 Disclaimer: The material presented is of a general nature and does not constitute the provision of investment or economic advice to any person, or a recommendation to buy or sell any security or adopt any investment strategy. Opinions and forecasts expressed herein are subject to change without notice. Relevant information was obtained from sources deemed reliable. Such information is not guaranteed as to its accuracy. You should seek the advice of an investment professional to tailor a financial plan to your particular needs. 218 The PNC Financial Services Group, Inc. All rights reserved.

5 PNC Economics Group January, 218 1Q'17a 2Q'17a 3Q'17p Q'17f 1Q'18f 2Q'18f 3Q'18f Q'18f 216a 217f 218f 219f Output Nominal GDP (Billions $ ) Percent Change Annualized Real GDP (Chained 29 Billions $ ) Percent Change Annualized Pers. Consumption Expenditures Percent Change Annualized Nonresidential Fixed Investment Percent Change Annualized Residential Investment Percent Change Annualized Change in Private Inventories Net Exports Government Expenditures Percent Change Annualized Industrial Prod. Index (212 = 1 ) Percent Change Annualized Capacity Utilization (Percent ) Prices CPI ( = 1 ) Percent Change Annualized Core CPI Index ( = 1) Percent Change Annualized PCE Price Index (29 = 1 ) Percent Change Annualized Core PCE Price Index (29 = 1 ) Percent Change Annualized GDP Price Index (29 = 1 ) Percent Change Annualized Crude Oil, WTI ($/Barrel ) Labor Markets Payroll Jobs (Millions ) Percent Change Annualized Unemployment Rate (Percent ) Average Weekly Hours, Prod. Works Personal Income Average Hourly Earnings ($ ) Percent Change Annualized Real Disp. Income (29 Billions $ ) Percent Change Annualized Housing Housing Starts (Ths., Ann. Rate ) Ext. Home Sales (Ths., Ann Rate ) New SF Home Sales (Ths., Ann Rate ) Case/Shiller HPI (Jan. 2 = 1 ) Percent Change Year Ago Consumer Household Economic Stress Index Auto Sales (Millions ) Consumer Credit (Billions $ ) Percent Change Annualized Interest Rates (Percent) Prime Rate Federal Funds Month Treasury Bill Year Treasury Note Year Fixed Mortgage a = actual f = forecast p = preliminary Baseline U.S. Economic Outlook, Expanded Table Disclaimer: The material presented is of a general nature and does not constitute the provision of investment or economic advice to any person, or a recommendation to buy or sell any security or adopt any investment strategy. Opinions and forecasts expressed herein are subject to change without notice. Relevant information was obtained from sources deemed reliable. Such information is not guaranteed as to its accuracy. You should seek the advice of an investment professional to tailor a financial plan to your particular needs. 218 The PNC Financial Services Group, Inc. All rights reserved.