Comparison of FRBNY Staff and Blue Chip Forecasts
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- Nathaniel Blair
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1 Comparison of and Forecasts Real GDP Growth Forecasts % Change (AR) % Change (AR) May Note: The blue band represents the top and bottom averages of the Blue Chip survey. Source: and Economic Indicators Staff GDP Forecast Summary Real GDP growth on roughly % trend over remainder of, moving up to around ½% in. Somewhat above consensus in. Headwinds gradually abating. Household wealth restored, deleveraging largely over. Excess supply of housing worked off. Fiscal drag largely behind us. Growth prospects of major trading partners somewhat improved. Continued accommodative monetary policy. Growth Contributions age Points Real GDP... Real Final Sales PCE Res. Inv. BFI Inv. Gov. Exp. Net Exports Source: Bureau of Economic Analysis Overall CPI Inflation Forecasts % Change (AR) % Change (AR) May - Note: The blue band represents the difference between the top and bottom average of the survey. Source: and Economic Indicators -
2 Comparison of and Forecasts Staff Inflation Forecast Summary Inflation Breakdown: Core Goods and Core Services Yr/Yr % Change Yr/Yr % Change Inflation expected to gradually move up toward FOMC s longer-run goal. % PCE deflator inflation (roughly ½% CPI inflation). Slightly above consensus. Core Services Underlying assumptions. Anchored inflation expectations. Gradually declining slack. Firming of global demand. - - Core Goods Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics Unemployment Rate Forecasts May Note: The blue band represents the difference between the top and bottom average of the survey. Source: and Economic Indicators Staff Unemployment Forecast Summary Increase in average monthly gains of nonfarm payroll employment leads to gradual decline in unemployment rate to around ½ % by Q. More rapid decline in than consensus. Factors underlying this forecast. Population growth returns to around %. Trend productivity growth of ½% NFBS ( ¼% GDP). Gradual increase in participation rate beginning in mid. Gradual increase in average weekly hours.
3 Forecast Distributions: and Probability of Growth of Real GDP: Probability of Growth of Real GDP: < - - to - - to - - to to to to to to Source: Survey of Professional Forecasters and Risks to Real Activity Outlook More uncertainty around staff GDP growth forecast than the for both and. to Risks skewed somewhat to upside in, balanced in. Major risks Upside: Improving fundamentals could inspire greater confidence by businesses and consumers. Downside: Global economy weaker than expected. Unexpected tightening of financial conditions. > < - - to - - to - - to to to to to to Source: Survey of Professional Forecasters and 8 < to.. to.9. to.. to.9. to.. to.9. to. to Probability of Core PCE Inflation: Q/Q Source: Survey of Professional Forecasters and. to.9 > > 8
4 Forecast Distributions: and Probability of Core PCE Inflation: Q/Q 8 < to.. to.9. to.. to.9. to.. to.9. to. Source: Survey of Professional Forecasters and. to.9 > 8 Risks to Inflation Outlook As with growth forecast, more uncertainty around staff inflation forecast than. Inflation risks are roughly balanced in both and. Upside: Both the level and growth rate of potential GDP are lower than currently estimated. Inflation expectations become unanchored because policy becomes too accommodative. Downside: Downside real risks induce more slack. Stronger global disinflationary pressures.
5 FRBNY Forecast Overview Forecast Q Q Q Q/Q Q/Q Q/Q Summary Advance / / / / / / Final / / / / / / Real GDP Total PCE Deflator Core PCE Deflator Fed Funds Rate Target* Nonfarm Business Sector Output Hours Productivity Growth Compensation Unit Labor Costs Real GDP Growth Contributions** Final Sales to Domestic Purchasers Private Consumption BFI: Equipment BFI: Nonresidential Structures BFI: Intellectural Property Products Residential Investment Government Federal State and Local Inventory Investment Net Exports Exports Imports Real GDP Components' Growth Rates Final Sales to Domestic Purchasers Consumption BFI: Equipment BFI: Nonresidential Structures BFI: Intellectural Property Products Residential Investment Government: Federal Government: State and Local Inventory Investment n/a n/a n/a n/a n/a n/a n/a n/a n/a n/a n/a n/a n/a n/a Net Exports n/a n/a n/a n/a n/a n/a n/a n/a n/a n/a n/a n/a n/a n/a Exports Imports Labor Market Nonfarm Payroll Employment (Average per Month, Thousands) Unemployment Rate*** Income Real Disposable Personal Income Personal Saving Rate*** *End-of-period value **Grow th contributions may not sum to total due to rounding. ***Quarterly values are the average rate for the quarter. Yearly values are the average rate for Q of the listed year. Blue and italic text indicate released data; darker colors indicate the most recent forecast.
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