National Economic Indicators. May 7, 2018

Transcription

1 National Economic Indicators May 7, 18

2 Table of Contents GDP Release Date Latest Period Page Table: Real Gross Domestic Product Apr :31 Q1-18 Real Gross Domestic Product Apr :31 Q Decomposition of Real Gross Domestic Product Apr :31 Q1-18 Households Retail Sales Apr :3 Mar-18 7 Consumer Spending and Income Apr :31 Mar-18 8 Sales of Automobiles and Light Trucks May--18 8:38 Apr-18 9 Personal Saving Rate Apr :31 Mar-18 1 Household Net Worth Mar :3 Q Existing Single-Family Home Sales Apr : Mar-18 1 New Single-Family Home Sales Apr--18 1: Mar Private Single-Family Housing Starts & Permits Apr :3 Mar-18 1 Private Multi-Family Housing Starts & Permits Apr :3 Mar Business Investment Real Investment in Nonresidential Structures Apr :31 Q Real Private Construction Put in Place May : Mar Real Nonresidential Fixed Investment Apr :31 Q Real Investment in Equipment Apr :31 Q Real Investment in Intellectual Property Apr :31 Q1-18 Trade Balance of International Trade May :31 Mar-18 1 Exchange Value of the USD Apr--18 9:5 Apr-18 Manufacturing Industrial Production Apr :1 Mar-18 3 Capacity Utilization Rate: Manufacturing Apr :1 Mar-18 Indexes of Manufacturing Activity May :1 Apr-18 5 Indexes of Non-Manufacturing Activity May :1 Apr-18 Table: ISM Business Survey Indexes May :1 Apr-18 7 Manufacturers' New Orders May : Mar-18 8 Core Capital Goods May : Mar-18 9 Business Inventory/Sales Ratios Apr :1 Feb-18 3

3 Table of Contents (continued) Labor Market Release Date Latest Period Page Nonfarm Payroll Employment May--18 8:3 Apr-18 31, 3 Unemployment Rate Measures May--18 8:3 Apr-18 33,3 Non-Employment Index Apr :3 Mar Labor Market Flows Apr : Feb-18 3 Labor Force Participation May--18 8:3 Apr Aggregate Weekly Hours Index May--18 8:3 Apr Average Hourly Earnings May--18 8:3 Apr Employment Cost Index Apr :31 Q1-18 Business Labor Productivity May :31 Q Unit Labor Costs, Nonfarm Business May :31 Q1-18 Inflation Table: Gauges of Inflation May--18 1:57 Apr-18 3 Expenditure Price Indexes Apr :31 Mar-18, 5 Consumer Price Indexes Apr :31 Mar-18 Producer Price Indexes Apr :35 Mar-18 7 Commodity Price Indexes May--18 1:57 Apr-18 8 Crude Oil Prices May May-18 9 TIPS Inflation Compensation Apr : -Apr-18 5 Monetary Policy & Financial Markets Federal Reserve System Assets May :3 -May Monetary Policy Instruments May :59 -May-18 5 Real Federal Funds Rate Apr :31 Apr FOMC Statement 5, 55 Eurodollar Futures May May-18 5 SEP: Federal Funds Rate 57 Monetary Base May :33 5-Apr M May :33 Mar Money Market Rates May :59 -May-18 Capital Market Rates May :59 -May-18 1 Treasury Yield Curve May--18 1:3 -May-18 Risk Premium May :59 -May-18 3

4 Real Gross Domestic Product Q1 Q Q3 Q Q1 CHANGE FROM PREVIOUS QUARTER AT COMPOUND ANNUAL RATE [Percent]: Gross Domestic Product Personal Consumption Expenditures Nonresidential Fixed Investment Structures Equipment Intellectual Property Residential Fixed Investment Exports of Goods & Services Imports of Goods & Services Government Consumption Expenditures & Gross Investment Final Sales to Domestic Purchasers LEVEL IN QUARTER AT SEASONALLY ADJUSTED ANNUAL RATE [Billions of Chained (5) Dollars]: Change in Private Inventories Net Exports of Goods & Services Source: Bureau of Economic Analysis via Haver Analytics

5 Real Gross Domestic Product Percent change from previous quarter at annual rate Q1.3% FOMC Projection Note: Projection is the median, central tendency, and range from the March 18 Summary of Economic Projections. Red dots indicate median projections. Projections of change in real gross domestic product (GDP) are from the fourth quarter of the previous year to the fourth quarter of the year indicated. 5 Source: Bureau of Economic Analysis via Haver Analytics & Federal Reserve Board

6 Decomposition of Real GDP Year Annual Growth Rates GDP Productivity Employment Note: Productivity is calculated as real GDP per employee, from the Household Survey. Source: Bureau of Economic Analysis and Bureau of Labor Statistics via Haver Analytics

7 Retail Sales 1 1 Month % Change Month Annualized % Change 1 Mar % Month over Month % Change Jan. Feb. Mar. Total x Gasoline Note: Retail sales includes food services. Source: Census Bureau via Haver Analytics 7

8 Consumer Spending and Income 8 1 Month % Change 8 Real Personal Consumption Expenditure March Real Disposable Personal Income Month over Month % Change January February March Income Expenditures Note: Income has been adjusted to account for temporary fiscal actions in 8 and Source: Bureau of Economic Analysis via Haver Analytics 8

9 Sales of Automobiles & Light Trucks Millions of Vehicles 18 Autos and Light Trucks Apr mil Light Trucks Autos Source: Autodata Corporation via Haver Analytics 9

10 Personal Saving Rate 1 Percent of disposable personal income Mar 3.1% Note: Income has been adjusted to account for temporary events Source: Bureau of Economic Analysis via Haver Analytics 1

11 Household Net Worth 7 Percent of disposable personal income 7 Q Source: Z.1 Financial Accounts of the United States via Haver Analytics 11

12 Existing Single-Family Home Sales Mar Source: National Association of Realtors via Haver Analytics 1

13 New Single-Family Home Sales 1. Millions Average Mar Source: Census Bureau via Haver Analytics 13

14 Private Single-Family Housing Starts & Permits. Millions of Starts & Permits, Annual Rate Average Housing Starts Starts Mar Permits Source: Census Bureau via Haver Analytics 1

15 Private Multi-Family Housing Starts & Permits.7 3-Month Moving Average, Millions of Starts & Permits, Annual Rate Mar.5. Permits Average Multi-Family Starts...1 Starts Source: Census Bureau via Haver Analytics 15

16 Real Investment in Nonresidential Structures Percent change from previous quarter at annual rate Q Source: Bureau of Economic Analysis via Haver Analytics 1

17 Real Private Construction Put In Place 7 9$, Billions 7 57 Real Private Residential Construction Real Private Nonresidential Construction March Notes: Private nonresidential construction deflated using the price index for private fixed investment in nonresidential structures and private residential construction deflated using the private residential investment chain price index. Source: Census Bureau via Haver Analytics 17

18 Real Nonresidential Fixed Investment Percent change from previous quarter at annual rate Q1.1% Source: Bureau of Economic Analysis via Haver Analytics 18

19 Real Investment in Equipment Percent change from previous quarter at annual rate Q1.7% Source: Bureau of Economic Analysis via Haver Analytics 19

20 Real Investment in Intellectual Property 1 Percent change from previous quarter at annual rate Q1 3.% Source: Bureau of Economic Analysis via Haver Analytics

21 Balance of International Trade -1 Current $, Billions Petroleum Balance Non- Petroleum Balance Mar -9 Bil Trade Balance Note: Customs Value of Trade Balance Source: Census Bureau via Haver Analytics 1

22 Exchange Value of the USD 135 Index, March 1973 = Apr Notes: Measured as the real broad trade-weighted exchange value of the United States Dollar. Source: Board of Governors via Haver Analytics

23 Industrial Production = Mining Overall Mar Manufacturing Source: Board of Governors via Haver Analytics 3

24 Capacity Utilization Rate: Manufacturing 8 Percent Mar 75.9% Source: Board of Governors via Haver Analytics

25 Indexes of Manufacturing Activity 5 Diffusion Index, percent ISM (Left Axis) Apr Richmond Fed Manufacturing Survey: Current Conditions Composite Index (Right Axis) Source: Institute for Supply Management & Richmond Fed via Haver Analytics 5

26 Indexes of Non-Manufacturing Activity 5 Diffusion Index, percent ISM (Left Axis) Apr Richmond Fed Service Sector Index: Revenues (Right Axis) Source: Institute for Supply Management & Richmond Fed via Haver Analytics

27 ISM: Business Survey Indexes MANUFACTURING BUSINESS: NON-MANUFACTURING BUSINESS: Mar. Apr. Mar. Apr. Purchasing Managers Index Non-Manufacturing Index Production Business Activity New Orders New Orders Employment Employment Supplier Deliveries. 1.1 Supplier Deliveries Inventories Inventories Prices Prices Backlog of Orders Backlog of Orders New Export Orders New Export Orders Imports Imports DIFFUSION INDEXES: Numbers above 5 percent indicate more favorable responses towards economic activity. Source: Institute for Supply Management via Haver Analytics 7

28 Manufacturers New Orders Billions Current $ Mar Month Moving Average Source: Census Bureau via Haver Analytics 8

29 Core Capital Goods 75 Current $, Billions 75 7 New Orders Mar Shipments Notes: Core capital goods are nondefense capital goods excluding aircraft. Source: Census Bureau via Haver Analytics 9

30 Business Inventory/Sales Ratio 1.7 Percent Retailers Total Business Feb Manufacturers Source: Census Bureau via Haver Analytics 3

31 Nonfarm Payroll Employment 15 Millions of Persons April 18. mil Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics via Haver Analytics 31

32 Nonfarm Payroll Employment 3 Quarterly average of monthly changes, thousands of persons Q Monthly Change Apr 1 Mar 135 Feb 3 Jan 17 Dec Notes: White bar on the right is based on an incomplete quarter Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics via Haver Analytics 3

33 Unemployment Rate 11. Percent Apr 3.9% FOMC Projection Notes: FOMC projection is the median, range, and central tendency for the Q levels, from the March 18 meeting. Red dots indicate median projections 3. Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics & Board of Governors via Haver Analytics 33

34 Measures of Labor Utilization 18 Percent U: U5 + Involuntary Part-Time Apr 9 U5: U3 + Discouraged + Marginally Attached U3: Official Unemployment Rate Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics via Haver Analytics 3

35 Non-Employment Index 1 Percent Non-Employment Index Including People Working Part-Time for Economic Reasons Non-Employment Index March Based on Measuring Resource Utilization in the Labor Market, Andreas Hornstein, Marianna Kudlyak, and Fabian Lange, Federal Reserve Bank of Richmond Economic Quarterly, First Quarter 1. 35

36 Labor Market Flows.5 Percent.5 Feb.. Hires Rate* Job Openings Rate** Quits Rate* Note: *Percent of total employment. **Percent of total employment plus job openings. Source: JOLTS via Haver Analytics 3

37 Labor Force Participation Percent of Population Apr Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics via Haver Analytics 37

38 Aggregate Weekly Hours Index 11 Index, 7= Apr Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics via Haver Analytics 38

39 Average Hourly Earnings Month % Change of 3-Month Moving Average Monthly % Change Apr.1% Mar.% Feb.1% Jan.3% Dec.% Apr.% Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics via Haver Analytics 39

40 Employment Cost Index. Year over Year % Change. 3.5 Benefits Cost Q1.5 Total Compensation Wages and Salaries Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics via Haver Analytics

41 Labor Productivity, Nonfarm Business Year over Year % Change Quarterly Change at Annual Rate 5 Q1 18.7% Q 17.3% Q3 17.% Q % 5 3 Post-War Average (Labor Productivity) 3 1 Q1 1.3% Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics via Haver Analytics 1

42 Unit Labor Cost, Nonfarm Business 5 3 Year over Year % Change Q1 1.1% Quarterly Change at Annual Rate Q1 18.7% Q 17.1% Q % Q 17-1.% Alternate Series Notes: Alternate series is derived from the Employment Cost Index. Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics via Haver Analytics

43 Gauges of Inflation Expenditure Price Indexes [Percent Change from Previous Month at Annual Rate]: Feb. Mar. YoY % Personal Consumption Expenditures... Core (excludes Food and Energy) Consumer Price Indexes [Percent Change from Previous Month at Annual Rate]: Feb. Mar. YoY % All Items Core (excludes Food and Energy)..1.1 Producer Price Indexes [Percent Change from Previous Month at Annual Rate]: Feb. Mar. YoY % Finished Goods Core (excludes Food and Energy) Core Intermediate Goods Crude Goods Spot Commodity Price Index [Percent Change from Previous Month]: Mar. Apr. YoY % CRB Spot Commodity Price Index Notes: Core PCE Price Index includes expenditures on food services. Source: BEA, BLS, & Commodity Research Bureau via Haver Analytics 3

44 Personal Consumption Expenditure Price Index 5 1 Month % Change % Longer-run Target FOMC Projection 1 Mar % Notes: FOMC projection is the median, range, and central tendency for Q/Q percent changes, from the March 18 meeting. Red dots indicate median projections. Source: Bureau of Economic Analysis & Board of Governors via Haver Analytics

45 Core Personal Consumption Expenditure Price Index 5 1 Month % Change month percentage change Mar 1.9% FOMC Projection 1 1 month percentage change Notes: FOMC projection is the median, range, and central tendency for Q/Q percent changes, from the March 18 meeting. Red dots indicate median projections. Core PCE Price Index excludes expenditures on gasoline and food services. Source: Bureau of Economic Analysis & Board of Governors via Haver Analytics 5

46 Consumer Price Indexes 1 Month % Change 5 All Items 5 3 Mar 3 1 Core CPI February March CPI: All Items.% -.1% Core CPI.%.% Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics via Haver Analytics

47 Producer Price Indexes Month % Change March (percent) All Finished Goods.9% Core Finished Goods 1.9% Core Finished Goods March All Finished Goods Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics via Haver Analytics 7

48 Commodity Price Indexes Month % Change 1 Month % Change PPI Core Intermediate Processed Materials (Left Axis) Commodity Research Bureau Spot Commodity Price Index (Right Axis) April Price Indexes March April PPI Core Intermed. Goods 3.5% --- CRBS Spot Commodities 1.%.9% Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics & Commodity Research Bureau via Haver Analytics 8

49 Crude Oil Prices 1 Current US$/Barrel Spot Price May-18 8 Futures Price Notes: Spot and Futures Prices are for Brent Crude Oil. Source: Financial Times & New York Mercantile Exchange via Haver Analytics & Bloomberg 9

50 TIPS Inflation Compensation 3.5 Percent Year 5 Years Ahead April Year Source: Federal Reserve Board /Haver Analytics 5

51 Federal Reserve System Assets 5, $, Billions,5, Agency Debt: $ Total: $,13 Miscellaneous: $58 3,5 3,,5, Agency Debt: $87 Total: $,85 Miscellaneous: $8 Agency MBS: $8 Agency MBS: $1,75 1,5 1, 5 Treasury Securities: $1,5 Treasury Securities: $, 9/1/1 5//18 Note: Numbers may not add up due to rounding. Source: Board of Governors via Haver Analytics 51

52 Monetary Policy Instruments Percent May Federal Funds Target Rate Primary Credit Rate Interest Rate Paid on Reserves Federal Funds Rate Target Range Source: Board of Governors via Haver Analytics 5

53 Real Federal Funds Rate Percent April Note: The Real Federal Funds Rate is the difference between the effect Fed Funds rate and the lagged year-over-year change in the core PCE price index. Source: Bureau of Economic Analysis & Board of Governors via Haver Analytics 53

54 FOMC Statement May, 18 Information received since the Federal Open Market Committee met in March indicates that the labor market has continued to strengthen and that economic activity has been rising at a moderate rate. Job gains have been strong, on average, in recent months, and the unemployment rate has stayed low. Recent data suggest that growth of household spending moderated from its strong fourth-quarter pace, while business fixed investment continued to grow strongly. On a 1-month basis, both overall inflation and inflation for items other than food and energy have moved close to percent. Market-based measures of inflation compensation remain low; survey-based measures of longer-term inflation expectations are little changed, on balance. Consistent with its statutory mandate, the Committee seeks to foster maximum employment and price stability. The Committee expects that, with further gradual adjustments in the stance of monetary policy, economic activity will expand at a moderate pace in the medium term and labor market conditions will remain strong. Inflation on a 1-month basis is expected to run near the Committee's symmetric percent objective over the medium term. Risks to the economic outlook appear roughly balanced. In view of realized and expected labor market conditions and inflation, the Committee decided to maintain the target range for the federal funds rate at 1-1/ to 1-3/ percent. The stance of monetary policy remains accommodative, thereby supporting strong labor market conditions and a sustained return to percent inflation. Source: Board of Governors 5

55 Continued In determining the timing and size of future adjustments to the target range for the federal funds rate, the Committee will assess realized and expected economic conditions relative to its objectives of maximum employment and percent inflation. This assessment will take into account a wide range of information, including measures of labor market conditions, indicators of inflation pressures and inflation expectations, and readings on financial and international developments. The Committee will carefully monitor actual and expected inflation developments relative to its symmetric inflation goal. The Committee expects that economic conditions will evolve in a manner that will warrant further gradual increases in the federal funds rate; the federal funds rate is likely to remain, for some time, below levels that are expected to prevail in the longer run. However, the actual path of the federal funds rate will depend on the economic outlook as informed by incoming data. Voting for the FOMC monetary policy action were Jerome H. Powell, Chairman; William C. Dudley, Vice Chairman; Thomas I. Barkin; Raphael W. Bostic; Lael Brainard; Loretta J. Mester; Randal K. Quarles; and John C. Williams. May, 18 Source: Board of Governors 55

56 Eurodollar Futures Percent 3.5 May, May 7, Source: CME Group via Bloomberg 5

57 Summary of Economic Projections: Federal Funds Rate 5 Percent Longer run Note: Each dot in the chart represents the value of an FOMC participant s judgment of the midpoint of the appropriate target range (or the appropriate target level) for the federal funds rate at the end of the calendar year. Projections made for the March 18 meeting. Source: Board of Governors 57

58 Monetary Base 5 Current $, Billions 5 April Source: Board of Governors via Haver Analytics 58

59 M Month % Change March 3 1 Source: Board of Governors via Haver Analytics 59

60 Money Market Rates.75 Percent May Primary Credit Rate IOER 3-Month T-Bill 3-Month LIBOR Federal Funds Rate Fed Reverse Repo Rate on Treasuries Source: Board of Governors & Financial Times via Haver Analytics & Bloomberg

61 Capital Market Rates Percent Corporate BBB Bond Rate 3-Year Conventional Mortgage Rate May Corporate AAA Bond Rate 1-Year Treasury Bond Rate Source: BofA Merrill Lynch & Board of Governors via Haver Analytics 1

62 Treasury Yield Curve 3. Percent March 19, 18 May, M Yrs 3 Yrs 5 Yrs 7 Yrs 1 Yrs Time to Maturity Source: Board of Governors via Haver Analytics

63 Risk Premium 8 Percent Year Rolling Average Risk Premium 3 May Note: Risk Premium is defined as the difference in yields between BofA Merrill Lynch BBB and 1-year Treasury. Source: BofA Merrill Lynch & Board of Governors via Haver Analytics 3