Moving On Up Today s Economic Environment
|
|
- Corey McKinney
- 5 years ago
- Views:
Transcription
1 Moving On Up Today s Economic Environment Presented by PFM Asset Management LLC Gray Lepley, Senior Analyst, Portfolio Strategies November 8, 2018 PFM 1
2 U.S. ECONOMY Today s Agenda MONETARY POLICY GEOPOLITICAL FACTORS INTEREST RATES FIXED INCOME MARKETS PFM 2
3 Current Economic Conditions 6% 4% 2% 0% -2% U.S. Real GDP (QoQ, SAAR) Rolling 4-Quarter Average 3.1% Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q % 2.5% 2.0% 1.5% 1.0% 0.5% Core CPI Core PCE Inflation Measures (YoY) Fed's Long Term Inflation Target 0.0% Sep '13 Sep '14 Sep '15 Sep '16 Sep '17 Sep '18 8% 7% 6% 5% 4% 7.2% 5.9% Unemployment Rate 5.0% 5.0% 4.2% 3.7% Consumer Confidence 3% Sep '13 Sep '14 Sep '15 Sep '16 Sep '17 Sep '18 40 Sep '13 Sep '14 Sep '15 Sep '16 Sep '17 Sep '18 Source: Bloomberg, latest data available as of 10/30/18. SAAR is seasonally adjusted annualized rate. PFM 3
4 2Q and 3Q GDP Grew at Fastest Pace Since 2014 U.S. GDP Contributors and Detractors Personal Consumption Fixed Investment Private Inventories Imports Exports Government Expenditures 6% 5% 4% 5.1% 4.9% 4.2% 3.5% 3% 2% 2.3% 2.2% 1% 0% -1% -2% 1Q 2Q 3Q 4Q 1Q 2Q 3Q 4Q 1Q 2Q 3Q 4Q 1Q 2Q 3Q 4Q 1Q 2Q 3Q Source: Bureau of Economic Analysis, as of October rd quarter contributions are based on the first GDP growth estimate. PFM 4
5 What We re Watching Basis Points 90 Spreads widened on a stock 85 market correction and concerns 80 about growth in Europe Year Corporate Spreads Recently, spreads have widen, amid lackluster corporate earnings, Italy s budget, and U.S. China trade tensions. 50 Oct '17 Jan '18 Apr '18 Jul '18 Oct '18 Yield 3.5% 3.0% 2.5% 2.0% 1.5% 1.0% 0.5% Flattening Yield Curve (10-Yr vs. 3-Mo) Spread 3-Month 10-Year Flattest curve since 2007: 78 bps 0.0% 0 Oct '16 Apr '17 Oct '17 Apr '18 Oct ' Implied Probability 100% 80% 60% 40% 20% 0% Market Implied Fed Rate Hike Probability Dec '18 Mar '19 Jun '19 Sep '19 Fed Meeting Dates Target Rate % % % % % 2-2.5% Economic Indicators are Strong Metrics At or Near Multi-Year Bests U.S. GDP (2018Q3) Unemployment Rate Consumer Confidence Job Openings Consumer Sentiment Avg. Hourly Earnings U.S. Manufacturing Inflation (Core PCE) Source: Bloomberg, yield spreads from ICE BofAML Indices, as of 10/29/18. Implied Fed Rate Hike Probability, as of PFM 10/30/
6 The Fed: Dual Mandate or Dueling Mandate? FED PRICE STABILITY MAXIMUM EMPLOYMENT PFM 6
7 Strong Labor Market Persists as Unemployment Rate Hits 49-Year Low Monthly Change in Nonfarm Payrolls Unemployment Rate Nonfarm Payrolls 12-Month Moving Average 400k 8% 7.2% 300k 7% 6% 5.9% 200k 5% 5.0% 5.0% 100k 4% 4.2% 3.7% 0k Sep '13 Sep '14 Sep '15 Sep '16 Sep '17 Sep '18 3% Sep '13 Sep '14 Sep '15 Sep '16 Sep '17 Sep '18 Source: Bloomberg, as of September PFM 7
8 U.S. Employers Struggle to Find Qualified Workers 1.8 Ratio of Hires to Job Openings Job Openings vs. Unemployed Workers Job Openings Unemployed 1.6 Millions Aug '06 Aug '08 Aug '10 Aug '12 Aug '14 Aug '16 Aug '18 2 Aug '06 Aug '08 Aug '10 Aug '12 Aug '14 Aug '16 Aug '18 Source: Bloomberg, as of 8/31/18. PFM 8
9 Differences Between Inflation Indicators Import Prices PPI CPI PCE measures Price of goods or services purchased from abroad by U.S. residents Selling prices received by domestic producers of goods and services Prices paid by urban consumers for a market basket of goods and services Prices paid for goods and services purchased by or on behalf of persons release Monthly Before the 15 th of the month 1-month lag Monthly Before the 15 th of the month 1-month lag Monthly Before the 15 th of the month 1-month lag Monthly End of month 1-month lag composition Goods Food Energy Services Goods Food Energy Services Goods Food Energy Services Goods Food Energy Services PFM 9
10 Core Inflation Hits the Fed s 2% Target Inflation Measures (YoY) Expectations for Average Inflation Rate over Next 5 Years 2.5% 2.5% 2.0% 2.0% 1.5% 1.5% 1.0% 0.5% Core CPI Core PCE Fed's Long Term Inflation Target 1.0% 0.0% Sep '13 Sep '14 Sep '15 Sep '16 Sep '17 Sep '18 0.5% Sep '13 Sep '14 Sep '15 Sep '16 Sep '17 Sep '18 Source: Bloomberg, latest data available as of September Inflation expectations based on yield difference between 5-year PFM Treasury note and 5-year Treasury Inflation Protected Securities (TIPS). 10
11 Has the Fed Achieved Its Dual Mandate? 4% Core PCE Inflation 3% 2% 1% current Q4 17 Q4 16 Q4 15 Q4 14 Q4 13 Q4 12 Q4 11 Q4 10 Q4 09 Fed s long-term projection for unemployment rate 0% 3% 4% 5% 6% 7% 8% 9% 10% Unemployment Rate Source: Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago, as of 9/26/18. PFM 11
12 FOMC s September Dot Plot Projects One More Rate Hike in 2018 Fed Participants Assessments of Appropriate Monetary Policy 5% 4% Sept-18 FOMC Projections Sept-18 Median Fed Funds Futures 3% 2% 1% 0% History of Recent Fed Rate Hikes Sept % Jun % Mar % Dec % Jun % Mar % Dec % Dec % Fed expects 1 more rate hike in 2018 & maintained future projections Longer Term Source: Federal Reserve and Bloomberg. Individual dots represent each Fed members judgement of the midpoint of the appropriate target range for the federal funds rate at each year-end. Fed funds futures as of 9/26/18. PFM 12
13 Divergence of Central Banks Central Bank Policy Rates 2.50% Fed Target Rate ECB Target Rate BOJ Target Rate Bank of England Target Rate 2.00% 1.50% 1.00% 0.50% 0.00% -0.50% Jan '15 Jul '15 Jan '16 Jul '16 Jan '17 Jul '17 Jan '18 Jul '18 Source: Bloomberg, as of 10/29/18. PFM 13
14 USMCA: the Renegotiated NAFTA Key changes to the proposed agreement include: Top 15 Trading Partners Total YTD Trade ($ billions) $0 $100 $200 $300 $400 $500 Requires a larger portion of auto parts come from a high wage factory paying a minimum of $16/hour in salaries to production workers. This provision will likely force automakers to shift suppliers from Mexico to Canada or the U.S. Requires Canada to allow more dairy imports into their country as well as ends a program in which they assist Canadian sellers of dairy products domestically and abroad. China Canada Mexico Japan Germany South Korea United Kingdom France India Italy Taiwan Brazil Netherlands Ireland Switzerland Source: Census Bureau data includes YTD figures as of August PFM 14
15 Geopolitical Risks Around the Globe U.S. mid-term elections Brexit, Italy s budget, and EU fragmentation Russia-NATO conflict U.S.-China trade tensions Turkey currency crisis North Korea tensions Iran sanctions U.S.- Mexico border tensions Venezuela political crisis South China Sea dispute Argentina currency crisis PFM 15
16 IMF Outlook For Lower Global Growth 8% World GDP Projections 6% -0.2% 4% Downward revisions from projections in April -0.2%-0.4% 2% -0.2% -0.4% -0.1% -0.1% 0% United States Euro Area Japan China Emerging Market and Developing Economies (Actual) (Projected) Source: IMF October 2018 Update and 2017 rates represent actual growth; 2018 and 2019 rates are projections. PFM 16
17 Volatility Re-Enters the Market; S&P Down over Year 2,950 Year-to-Date Change High: +9.6% YTD 2,900 2,850 2,800 2,750 2,700 2, close -0.6% YTD 2,600 2,550 Dec '17 Jan '18 Feb '18 Mar '18 Apr '18 May '18 Jun '18 Jul '18 Aug '18 Sep '18 Source: Bloomberg, as of 10/29/18. PFM 17
18 U.S. Yield Curve Has Flattened U.S. Treasury Yield Curve Tenor Current 9/29/18 Year-End 12/31/2017 Year-End 12/31/16 3.5% 3 month 2.30% 1.38% 0.45% 3.0% 6 month 2.46% 1.53% 0.61% 2.5% 1 year 2.63% 1.73% 0.82% 2 year 2.82% 1.88% 1.21% Yield 2.0% 1.5% 3 year 2.87% 1.97% 1.47% 5 year 2.92% 2.21% 1.95% 10 year 3.08% 2.41% 2.48% 1.0% 0.5% 0.0% 3 M 1 Y 2 Y 3 Y October 29, 2018 December 29, 2017 December 30, Y Y Maturity 10 Y Source: Bloomberg, as of 10/29/2018. PFM 18
19 Spread Between 10-Year and 2-Year Treasuries Tight 3.5% Spread 2-Year 10-Year Current: 28bps % % % 200 Yield 1.5% % % % 0 Oct-16 Jan-17 Apr-17 Jul-17 Oct-17 Jan-18 Apr-18 Jul-18 Oct-18 Source: Bloomberg, as of 10/29/2018. PFM 19
20 Yield Curve Inversions Historically Precede Recessions Spread Between 10-Year and 2-Year Treasury Yields 3% 2% 1% 0% -1% -2% yield curve inverts worth watching Recession % Source: Bloomberg, as of 10/29/2018. PFM 20
21 What Does the Flattening of the Yield Curve Mean? Source: LPL Research, FactSet. PFM 21
22 Where Are We in the Economic Cycle? Different Indicators Give Differing Views The Conference Board Leading Economic Index Continues to Rise The Conference Board Leading Economic Index (LEI) for the U.S. The Conference Board Coincident Economic Index (CEI) for the U.S '98 '00 '02 '04 '06 '08 '10 '12 '14 '16 '18 Supports the continuing solid growth in the economy Suggests no recession in the near-term Source (left): Wall Street Journal; Deutsche Bank (as of July 2018). Source (right): Conference Board (as of October 2018). PFM 22
23 Short-Term Credit Spreads Have Widened Due to Volatility Yield Spread of 6-month Commercial Paper over T-Bill Money Market Yield Curves 0.60% 3.20% 0.50% 3.00% CD/CP Average 0.40% 2.80% Treasuries 0.30% 0.20% +25 bps 2.60% 2.40% Agencies 0.10% 12-Month Low: +10 bps 2.20% 0.00% 2.00% Oct '17 Dec '17 Feb '18 Apr '18 Jun '18 Aug '18 Oct ' Maturity in Months Source: Bloomberg, PFMAM Trading Desk, as of 10/29/18. Not a specific recommendation. 6-mo CP yield spread based on PFM A1/P1 rated CP index. 23
24 Short-Term Treasuries Compensate Investors for Multiple Hikes in % Treasury Yield Estimated Average Overnight Repo Yield +5 bps 2.60% 2.50% +9 bps 2.40% +9 bps 2.30% +9 bps 2.20% 2.10% 2.00% 1 month 3 month 6 month 9 month 12 month Source: Bloomberg, as of October 29, Average overnight repo yield assumes an initial repo rate of 2.13% and 25 basis point (0.25%) interest rate hikes in December of 2018 and March, June, and September of 2019; it is calculated by determining the average resulting yield over each time horizon. PFM 24
25 Federal Agency Spreads Remain Tight 0.15% Federal Agency Yield Spreads Agency 10/29/18 Agency 12 Mos Max 0.10% 0.05% 0.00% -0.05% Years to Maturity Source: Bloomberg as of 10/29/2018. PFM 25
26 Volatility in Corporate Securities Yield Spread (OAS) of 1-5 Year Investment Grade Corporate Index basis points ( bps ) 2018Q1 +22 bps 2018Q2 +2 bps 2018Q3-10 bps 2018 Q4 Basis Points bps Dec '16 Feb '17 Apr '17 Jun '17 Aug '17 Oct '17 Dec '17 Feb '18 Apr '18 Jun '18 Aug '18 Oct '18 Source: Bloomberg, ICE BofA Merrill Lynch Indices, as of 10/29/2018. PFM 26
27 Yield Environment as of October 29, 2018 Maturity Treasury Federal Agency AA Corporate A Corporate 3-Month 2.31% 2.29% 2.45% 2.43% 6-Month 2.46% 2.42% 2.66% 2.71% 1-Year 2.63% 2.63% 2.83% 2.98% 2-Year 2.82% 2.87% 3.12% 3.26% 3-Year 2.87% 2.96% 3.24% 3.41% 5-Year 2.92% 3.07% 3.45% 3.60% Source: Bloomberg BVAL yield curves for Treasury and Corporate. TradeWeb for Federal Agency yields. 3 and 6 month corporate yields from commercial paper; A-1+ for AA and A-1 for A. Yields are for indicative purposes only; actual yields may vary by issue. PFM 27
28 Q3 Sector Returns Favor Spread Products 2018 Q3 1-5 Year Sector Returns 2018 Q3 Treasury Returns 0.7% 0.6% 0.5% 0.4% 0.3% 0.25% 0.66% 0.55% 1.0% 0.5% 0.0% -0.5% -1.0% -1.5% 0.49% 0.19% -0.16% -0.37% -0.79% 0.2% 0.1% 0.04% 0.10% -2.0% -2.5% 0.0% -3.0% -2.81% U.S. Treasury Agency Corporate (A-AAA) Agency MBS ABS (AAA) 0-1 Years 1-3 Years 3-5 Years 5-7 Years 7-10 Years 10+ Years Source: ICE BofAML Indices. MBS and ABS indices are 0-5 year, based on weighted average life. As of 9/30/18. PFM 28
29 Sector Returns over Time 2.00% 5-Year Return 1.75% 3-Year Return 1-Year Return 1.50% 1.51% 1.22% 1.47% 1.00% 0.73% 0.93% 0.73% 0.97% 0.50% 0.00% 0.17% 0.35% 0.44% 0.03% 0.06% -0.50% -0.58% -1.00% -0.82% U.S. Treasury Agency Corp (A-AAA) Agency MBS ABS (AAA) U.S. Treasury Agency Corp (A-AAA) 1-5 Year Treasuries Agency MBS ABS (AAA) U.S. Treasury Agency Corp (A-AAA) Agency MBS ABS (AAA) Source: ICE BofA Merrill Lynch Indices. MBS index is 0-5 year, based on weighted average life. As of 9/30/2018. Returns greater than 1-year are annualized. PFM 29
30 Return Benefits of Diversification Example 1-5 Year Portfolio Sector Allocation Portfolio Return 5-Year Returns 2017 Returns 15% 30% 25% 10% 10% 10% % 1.35% 15% 40% 25% 10% 10% % 1.29% 25% 40% 25% 10% % 1.19% 40% 50% 10% % 0.82% 50% 50% % 0.75% 100% % 0.65% Treasury Agency Corp A-AAA Mortgage-Backed Securities Supranationals Asset-Backed Securities Example portfolio returns are based on the ICE BofA Merrill Lynch 1-5 Year indices for all sectors except for Supranational which uses the 1-5 Year index and are annualized for trailing periods longer than one year. Source: ICE BofA Merrill Lynch PFM Indices, as of 9/30/18. 30
31 Total Return During Tightening Periods 12% 1-5 Year Treasury Index Total Return 18 Month Moving Average S&P LGIP 7 Day 10% 8% 6% 4% Fed tightening 2% 0% -2% Sep '95 Sep '97 Sep '99 Sep '01 Sep '03 Sep '05 Sep '07 Sep '09 Sep '11 Sep '13 Sep '15 Sep '17 Source: Bloomberg, as of 9/30/18. PFM 31
32 Total Return vs. Yield During Tightening Periods 1.4% 1-5 Year Treasury Index Total Return 18-month MA 5 Year Treasury Index Yield 1.2% 1.0% 0.8% 0.6% 0.4% Fed tightening 0.2% 0.0% -0.2% -0.4% Sep '95 Sep '97 Sep '99 Sep '01 Sep '03 Sep '05 Sep '07 Sep '09 Sep '11 Sep '13 Sep '15 Sep '17 Source: Bloomberg, as of 8/31/18. Includes the 1-5 Year Treasury Index Total Return 18-month MA and the 5 Year Treasury Index Yield. PFM 32
33 Long-Term Benefit of Longer Duration Investment Strategies Millions $35 $30 Fed tightening $25 $20 $15 $10 Sep '95 Sep '97 Sep '99 Sep '01 Sep '03 Sep '05 Sep '07 Sep '09 Sep '11 Sep '13 Sep '15 Sep ' Year Treasury Index Total Return 18 Month Moving Average 1-5 Year Treasury Index Total Return 18 Month Moving Average 1-10 Year Treasury Index Total Return 18 Month Moving Average S&P LGIP 7 Day Source: Bloomberg, as of 9/30/18. PFM 33
34 Questions? PFM 34
35 Disclosures This material is based on information obtained from sources generally believed to be reliable and available to the public, however PFM Asset Management LLC cannot guarantee its accuracy, completeness or suitability. This material is for general information purposes only and is not intended to provide specific advice or a specific recommendation. All statements as to what will or may happen under certain circumstances are based on assumptions, some but not all of which are noted in the presentation. Assumptions may or may not be proven correct as actual events occur, and results may depend on events outside of your or our control. Changes in assumptions may have a material effect on results. Past performance does not necessarily reflect and is not a guaranty of future results. The information contained in this presentation is not an offer to purchase or sell any securities. PFM is the marketing name for a group of affiliated companies providing a range of services. All services are provided through separate agreements with each company. Investment advisory services are provided by PFM Asset Management LLC, which is registered with the Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) under the Investment Advisers Act of The information contained is not an offer to purchase or sell any securities. Financial advisory services are provided by PFM Financial Advisors LLC and Public Financial Management, Inc. Both are registered municipal advisors with the SEC and the Municipal Securities Rulemaking Board (MSRB) under the Dodd-Frank Act of Applicable regulatory information is available upon request. For more information regarding PFM s services or entities, please visit PFM 35
Moving On Up Investing in Today s Rate Environment
Moving On Up Investing in Today s Rate Environment Presented by PFM Asset Management LLC Steve Faber, Managing Director Gray Lepley, Senior Analyst, Portfolio Strategies September 18, 2018 PFM 1 Today
More informationNational Economic Outlook
National Economic Outlook MSBO Financial Strategies Conference January 17, 2018 Presented by: Kyle Jones, Director of Portfolio Strategies PFM Asset Management LLC One Keystone Plaza, Suite 300 N. Front
More informationMonthly Market Update August 2016
Monthly Market Update August 2016 Steven Alexander, CTP, CGFO, CPPT, Managing Director D. Scott Stitcher, CFA, Director Richard Pengelly, CFA, CTP, Director Khalid Yasin, CHP, Senior Managing Consultant
More informationFixed Income Portfolio Management
Fixed Income Portfolio Management Presented By: Marty Hammond, Managing Director Samantha Myers, Senior Analyst February 2019 PFM Asset Management LLC 821 Alexander Road Suite 110 Princeton, NJ 08540 609.452.0263
More information2018 Investment and Economic Outlook
2018 Investment and Economic Outlook Presented 3/19/18 Jeffrey Neer, CFA Client Portfolio Manager 410-237-5592 jeffrey.neer@pnc.com 1 Monetary Policy: Key Factors Inflation U.S. U.S. Labor Market 2.4%
More informationHold on to Your Seat
Hold on to Your Seat Portfolio Considerations in Changing Markets August 25, 2017 Steven Alexander, 300 S. Orange Ave. (407) 648-2208 CTP, CGFO, CPPT Suite 1170 pfm.com PFM Asset Orlando, FL 32801 Management
More informationInvestment Grade Fixed Income Review
Investment Grade Fixed Income Review February 15, 2018 North Carolina Short Term Portfolio (STIF) December 31, 2017 STIF Allocation 1.40% 1.20% Monthly STIF Rate History 1.30% Repurchase Agreements 7.5%
More informationEconomic and Market Outlook
Economic and Market Outlook Third Quarter 2018 Investment Products: Not FDIC Insured No Bank Guarantee May Lose Value Past performance is no guarantee of future results. Financial term and index definitions
More informationFixed income market update
April 1, 216 Fixed income market update Taplin, Canida & Habacht, LLC BMO Global Asset Management 11 Brickell Bay Drive Suite 21 Miami, Florida 33131 p 35-379-21 f 35-379-4452 tchinc.com Fixed income market
More informationDecline in Economic Activity Larger Than Advance GDP Estimate February 27, 2009
Northern Trust Global Economic Research 5 South LaSalle Chicago, Illinois 663 northerntrust.com Asha G. Bangalore agb3@ntrs.com Decline in Economic Activity Larger Than Advance GDP Estimate February 27,
More informationFixed income market update. June BMO Fixed Income Brickell Bay Dr. Suite 2100 Miami, Florida bmogam.
Fixed income market update June 2018 BMO Fixed Income 1001 Brickell Bay Dr. Suite 2100 Miami, Florida 33131 bmogam.com/usfixedincome Fixed income market update Fixed Income Sectors Total Returns For the
More informationWorld Trade Powering Global Economic Growth
WEEKLY GUIDANCE ON ECONOMIC AND GEOPOLITICAL EVENTS Peter Donisanu Investment Strategy Analyst World Trade Powering Global Economic Growth August 1, 217 Key Takeaways» Evidence is mounting that global
More informationNational Economic Indicators. May 7, 2018
National Economic Indicators May 7, 18 Table of Contents GDP Release Date Latest Period Page Table: Real Gross Domestic Product Apr-7-18 8:31 Q1-18 Real Gross Domestic Product Apr-7-18 8:31 Q1-18 5 Decomposition
More information2015 Market Review & Outlook. January 29, 2015
2015 Market Review & Outlook January 29, 2015 Economic Outlook Jason O. Jackman, CFA President & Chief Investment Officer Percentage Interest Rates Unexpectedly Decline 4.5 10-Year Government Yield 4 3.5
More informationThe Macroeconomic Outlook
The Macroeconomic Outlook 2 nd Quarter, 2018 Ramirez & Co., Inc. 61 Broadway, 29th Floor New York, NY 10006 (800) 888-4086 Synopsis Almost a decade after the onset of the Great Contraction of 2007 2009,
More informationPFM Asset Management LLC Monthly Market Update April 2013
PFM Asset Management LLC Monthly Market Update April 2013 Steven Alexander, CTP, CGFO, Managing Director D. Scott Stitcher, CFA, Senior Managing Consultant Khalid Yasin, CHP, Senior Managing Consultant
More informationCity of Winter Springs, Florida
City of Winter Springs, Florida Investment Performance Review Quarter Ended June 30, 2015 Investment Advisors Steven Alexander, CTP, CGFO, CPPT, Managing Director Robert Cheddar, CFA, Chief Credit Officer,
More informationThree-speed recovery. GDP growth. Percent Emerging and developing economies. World
Three-speed recovery GDP growth Percent 1 8 6 4 2-2 -4-6 198 1985 199 1995 2 25 21 215 Source: IMF WEO; Milken Institute. Emerging and developing economies Advanced economies World Output is still below
More informationFixed income market update. April BMO Fixed Income Brickell Bay Dr. Suite 2100 Miami, Florida bmogam.
Fixed income market update April 218 BMO Fixed Income 11 Brickell Bay Dr. Suite 21 Miami, Florida 33131 bmogam.com/usfixedincome Fixed income market update For the quarter ended March 31, 218, the Bloomberg
More informationNational Economic Indicators. December 11, 2017
National Economic Indicators December 11, 17 Table of Contents GDP Release Date Latest Period Page Table: Real Gross Domestic Product Nov-9-17 8:3 Q3-17 Real Gross Domestic Product Nov-9-17 8:3 Q3-17 5
More informationEconomic and Market Outlook
Economic and Market Outlook Fourth Quarter 2018 Investment Products: Not FDIC Insured No Bank Guarantee May Lose Value Past performance is no guarantee of future results. Financial term and index definitions
More informationLiquidity Management: Beyond Quantitative Easing
Liquidity Management: Beyond Quantitative Easing June 2014 Agenda 1. Assessing Risk: Current Market Conditions a. Global Macroeconomics b. Monetary Policy c. Quantitative Easing (QE) d. Asset Bubbles e.
More informationFixed income market update
March 2, 215 Fixed income market update Taplin, Canida & Habacht, LLC BMO Global Asset Management 11 Brickell Bay Drive Suite 21 Miami, Florida 33131 p 35-379-21 f 35-379-4452 tchinc.com Fixed income market
More informationLiquidity is Relevant Again
Liquidity is Relevant Again April 2019 Not FDIC Insured May Lose Value No Bank Guarantee Not NCUA or NCUSIF insured. May lose value. No credit union guarantee. For institutional use only. l 2019 FMR LLC.
More informationFixed income market update. March BMO Fixed Income Brickell Bay Dr. Suite 2100 Miami, Florida bmogam.
Fixed income market update March 218 BMO Fixed Income 11 Brickell Bay Dr. Suite 21 Miami, Florida 33131 bmogam.com/usfixedincome Fixed income market update For the month ended February 28, 218, the Bloomberg
More informationECONOMIC OUTLOOK FINALLY, SYNCHRONIZED GLOBAL GROWTH
ECONOMIC OUTLOOK FINALLY, SYNCHRONIZED GLOBAL GROWTH Augustine Faucher Chief Economist November 13, 2017 Senior Economic Advisor Chief Economist BETTER GROWTH THIS YEAR, AND AN UPGRADE TO 2018 World output,
More informationManaging Public Funds Safely
Managing Public Funds Safely Scott Stitcher, CFA & Richard Pengelly, CFA, CTP November 9, 2016 2016 PFM Asset Management LLC The Mission Local Government Officials Have a Significant Fiduciary Responsibility
More informationEconomic and Financial Markets Monthly Review & Outlook Detailed Report January 2018
Economic and Financial Markets Monthly Review & Outlook Detailed Report January 1 NOT FDIC INSURED NO BANK GUARANTEE MAY LOSE VALUE Overview of the Economy Business and economic confidence continue to
More informationECONOMIC AND FINANCIAL HIGHLIGHTS
ECONOMIC AND FINANCIAL HIGHLIGHTS LABOR MARKET Contributions to Change in Nonfarm Payrolls 2 Unemployment and Labor Force Participation Rate 3 MANUFACTURING ISM Manufacturing Index 4 CONSUMERS Light Vehicle
More informationEconomic Outlook In the Shoes of an FOMC Member
Economic Outlook In the Shoes of an FOMC Member This material must be read in conjunction with the disclosure statement. 9 April 2018 PRESENTED BY: MARKUS SCHOMER Chief Economist PineBridge Investments
More informationThe First Phase of the U.S. Recovery and Beyond
The First Phase of the U.S. Recovery and Beyond James Bullard President and CEO Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis Global Interdependence Center Shanghai, China January 11, 2010 Any opinions expressed here
More informationB-GUIDE: Economic Outlook
Aug-12 Apr-13 Dec-13 Aug-14 Apr-15 Dec-15 Aug-16 Apr-17 Jul-15 Nov-15 Mar-16 Jul-16 Nov-16 Mar-17 Jul-17 Quarterly Economic Outlook: Quarter 4 2017 4 January 2018 B-GUIDE: Economic Outlook The economy
More informationThe School District of Brevard County Market Update and Portfolio Review May 25, 2010
The School District of Brevard County Market Update and Portfolio Review May 25, 2010 Asset Management LLC Presented By: Steven Alexander, Managing Director 300 South Orange Avenue, Suite 1170 Orlando,
More informationThe Wage Conundrum. coming months but likely fade as the year comes to a close. Chart 1. U.S., Eurozone and Japanese Core Inflation Remains Subdued
Peter Donisanu Investment Strategy Analyst WEEKLY GUIDANCE ON ECONOMIC AND GEOPOLITICAL EVENTS The Wage Conundrum September, 17 Key Takeaways» Some market participants have taken the recent rebound in
More informationThe Stimulus Didn t Work An Overlooked Fact that Needs Mention September 18, 2009
Northern Trust Global Economic Research 0 South LaSalle Chicago, Illinois northerntrust.com Asha G. Bangalore agb@ntrs.com The Stimulus Didn t Work An Overlooked Fact that Needs Mention September 18, 9
More informationFourth Quarter Market Outlook. Kim Huebner, CFA Don Powell, CFA Joseph Styrna, CFA
Fourth Quarter 2017 Market Outlook Kim Huebner, CFA Don Powell, CFA Joseph Styrna, CFA Economic Outlook Growth Increasing, Spending Modest, Low Unemployment 2017 2016 2015 2014 2013 2012 2011 GDP* Q3:
More informationOlivier Blanchard Economic Counsellor and Director of the Research Department, International Monetary Fund
Centre for Economic Performance 21st Birthday Lecture Series The State of the World Economy Olivier Blanchard Economic Counsellor and Director of the Research Department, International Monetary Fund Lord
More informationSchool District of Lake County
School District of Lake County Investment Performance Review Quarter Ended September 30, 2016 Investment Advisors Steven Alexander, CTP, CGFO, CPPT, Managing Director James Sims, CFA, Senior Portfolio
More informationFixed income market update
December 1, 217 Fixed income market update Taplin, Canida & Habacht, LLC BMO Global Asset Management 11 Brickell Bay Drive Suite 21 Miami, Florida 33131 p 35-379-21 f 35-379-4452 tchinc.com Fixed income
More informationMarch 22, 2017 Boston, MA
March 22, 2017 Boston, MA Make or Break: Five Pivotal Drivers in 2017 Holly H. MacDonald Chief Investment Strategist Past performance is no guarantee of future results. This material is provided for your
More informationCity of St. Louis. Review of Investment Portfolios First Quarter 2016
City of St. Louis Review of Investment Portfolios First Quarter 2016 77 West Port Plaza, Suite 220 St. Louis, MO 63146 (314)-878-5000 www.pfm.com First Quarter 2016 Summary Volatility ushered in the New
More informationThe Korean Economy: Resilience amid Turbulence
The Korean Economy: Resilience amid Turbulence Dr. Il SaKong Special Economic Advisor Adviser to the President Republic of Korea November 17, 17, 2008 November 17, 2008 1. Recent Macroeconomic Developments
More informationPRESENTATION BY JACOB A. FRENKEL AT THE FORUM: INTELLIGENCE ON THE WORLD, EUROPE, AND ITALY. Villa d'este, Cernobbio - September 7, 8 and 9, 2012
PRESENTATION BY JACOB A. FRENKEL AT THE FORUM: INTELLIGENCE ON THE WORLD, EUROPE, AND ITALY Villa d'este, Cernobbio - September 7, 8 and 9, 1 Working paper, September 1. Kindly authorized by the Author.
More information2018 MACRO OVERVIEW. More of the Same, Yet Less of the Same. March 9, 2018
2018 MACRO OVERVIEW More of the Same, Yet Less of the Same March 9, 2018 RICHARD FARR MERION CAPITAL GROUP 484-436-4764 rfarr@merioncapitalgroup.com Jan-04 Oct-04 Jul-05 Apr-06 Jan-07 Oct-07 Jul-08 Apr-09
More informationU.S. Chamber of Commerce Economic Outlook
U.S. Chamber of Commerce Economic Outlook December 211 Economic Policy Division Real GDP Outlook Percent Change, Annual Rate 2 1 1 - -1 197 197 198 198 199 199 2 2 21 U.S. GDP Actual and Potential Quarterly,
More informationInvestment Opportunities in Global Fixed Income Markets
Investment Opportunities in Global Fixed Income Markets GSAM Insurance Fixed Income May 217 GSAM Insurance Asset Management Key Themes for 217 Economic Backdrop End of the Distortion Monetary to Fiscal
More informationAugust 8, 2006 Authorized for Public Release 148 of 158. Appendix 1: Materials used by Mr. Kos
August 8, 6 Authorized for Public Release 148 of 158 Appendix 1: Materials used by Mr. Kos Class II -- Restricted FR Page 1 of 4 Realized Volatility of MSCI Equity Indices 35 25 15 5 22 August 8, 6 Authorized
More informationQ Economic Outlook
Q1 Economic Outlook Presented by: Craig Dismuke Chief Economic Strategist cdismuke@viningsparks.com 1/24/ Page 1 Q1 ECONOMIC OUTLOOK A. European Drama, Weak U.S. Growth, and Central Bank Intervention B.
More informationGLOBAL EQUITY MARKET OUTLOOK: FAVOR U.S.; STICK WITH EM
LPL RESEARCH WEEKLY MARKET COMMENTARY KEY TAKEAWAYS U.S. economic and earnings growth continue to stand out globally and support our positive view of U.S. equities. We continue to see upside potential
More informationKeynote Address: Jeff Gundlach Presenter Chief Executive Officer & Chief Investment Officer DoubleLine Capital
Keynote Address: Jeff Gundlach Presenter Chief Executive Officer & Chief Investment Officer DoubleLine Capital This Time It s Different 2 3 Past Fed Tightening Cycles Source: ValueWalk, Taking a Lesson
More informationVirginia GFOA. May 4, Reid Andrews Government Treasury Management. Vanessa Hubbard Fixed Income Market & Portfolio Strategy
Virginia GFOA May 4, 2016 Reid Andrews Government Treasury Management Vanessa Hubbard Fixed Income Market & Portfolio Strategy WFS and its investment representatives do not act as Municipal Advisors and
More informationWeekly Economic Commentary
LPL FINANCIAL RESEARCH Weekly Economic Commentary May 29, 2012 Policymakers, Pundits, and Politicians Eye the May Jobs Report John Canally, CFA Economist LPL Financial Highlights The May jobs report is
More informationMonetary Policy under Fed Normalization and Other Challenges
Javier Guzmán Calafell, Deputy Governor, Banco de México* Santander Latin America Day London, June 28 th, 2018 */ The opinions and views expressed in this document are the sole responsibility of the author
More informationOUTLOOK 2014/2015. BMO Asset Management Inc.
OUTLOOK 2014/2015 BMO Asset Management Inc. We would like to take this opportunity to provide our capital markets outlook for the remainder of 2014 and the first half of 2015 and our recommended asset
More informationWith the tax filing season in full swing, these summary
NationalEconomicTrends March Income Taxes: Who Pays and How Much? With the tax filing season in full swing, these summary figures may provide some perspective on the issue of who is paying federal individual
More informationCity of Winter Springs, Florida
City of Winter Springs, Florida Investment Performance Review Quarter Ended December 31, 2015 Investment Advisors Steven Alexander, CTP, CGFO, CPPT, Managing Director Robert Cheddar, CFA, Chief Credit
More information2018 Economic Outlook 3Q Update
2018 Economic Outlook 3Q Update The Sky Is Still the Limit And the U.S. Economy Is Closer Craig Dismuke Chief Economist, Vining Sparks cdismuke@viningsparks.com Dudley Carter Economist, Vining Sparks dcarter@viningsparks.com
More informationInvestment Performance Review For the Quarter Ended September 30, 2017
Investment Performance Review Investment Advisors Steven Alexander, CTP, CGFO, CPPT, Managing Director Robert Cheddar, CFA, Chief Credit Officer, Managing Director D. Scott Stitcher, CFA, Director Rebecca
More informationGlobal House View: Market Outlook
HSBC GLOBAL ASSET MANAGEMENT September 29 Global House View: Market Outlook Contents 1688/HSB1395a Market performance Macro-economic Picture Market Views: high level asset allocation Market Views: Equity
More informationThere has been considerable discussion of the possibility
NationalEconomicTrends February Housing and the R Word There has been considerable discussion of the possibility that ongoing troubles in the housing market could push the economy into recession 1 But
More informationBOMA National Advisory Council Meeting Seaport Hotel, Boston MA
BOMA National Advisory Council Meeting Seaport Hotel, Boston MA May 5, 2017 Jeff Fuhrer, EVP and Senior Policy Advisor Federal Reserve Bank of Boston 1 Raising rates? Raising rates more this year? Next?
More informationTrends & Long-Term Outlook for Fixed and Stable Value Funds
Trends & Long-Term Outlook for Fixed and Stable Value Funds CPPC Conference August 2013 Cathe Tocher CFA, Senior Vice President AGENDA Introduction: Short-term noise pay attention Preparing for the future:
More informationWeekly Economic Commentary
LPL FINANCIAL RESEARCH Weekly Economic Commentary April 30, 2012 New Paradigm in Global Growth John Canally, CFA Economist LPL Financial Highlights The composition of global economic growth has shifted
More informationThe U.S. Economic Outlook
The U.S. Economic Outlook Gering/Scottsbluff Economic Forum August 23, 216 George A. Kahn Vice President and Economist The views expressed are those of the author and do not necessarily reflect the opinions
More informationRECESSION AND RECOVERY IN MISSOURI AND THE U.S.
RECESSION AND RECOVERY IN MISSOURI AND THE U.S. Alison Felix Senior Economist Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City The views expressed are those of the presenter and do not necessarily reflect the positions
More informationTHE STATE OF THE ECONOMY
THE STATE OF THE ECONOMY ANGELA GUO Portland State University The United States economy in the fourth quarter of 2013 appears to have a more robust foothold pointing to a healthier outlook for 2014. Much
More informationA Global Economic and Market Outlook
A Global Economic and Market Outlook Presented by Dr Chris Caton December 2008 US Housing starts and Permits 2.3 (Millions) Permits Starts 2.1 1.9 1.7 1.5 1.3 1.1 0.9 0.7 96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05
More informationChart 1 Productivity of Major Economies
1980 1981 1982 1983 1984 1985 1986 1987 1988 1989 1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2013 2014 2015 2016 Chart 1 Productivity
More informationCity of St. Louis. Review of Investment Portfolios Second Quarter 2015
City of St. Louis Review of Investment Portfolios Second Quarter 2015 77 West Port Plaza, Suite 220 St. Louis, MO 63146 (314)-878-5000 www.pfm.com Second Quarter 2015 Summary Throughout the quarter, improving
More informationEconomic Indicators. Roland Berger Institute
Economic Indicators Roland Berger Institute November 2018 Overview Key points Economic Indicators A publication, compiled by the Roland Berger Institute, that provides you with the most important macroeconomic
More informationSanta Margarita Water District
Santa Margarita Water District MEMORANDUM TO: Board of Directors DATE: April 19, 2013 FROM: SUBJECT: Kristin Griffith Revised PFM Transaction Report Santa Margarita Water District PFM statements for investments
More informationThe Federal Reserve has set the target range for the federal
NationalEconomicTrends October Monetary Policy Stance: The View from Consumption Spending The Federal Reserve has set the target range for the federal funds at to 5 percent and intends to keep this near
More informationCity and County of Denver
Sr. I. Economic Commentary Volatility returned to capital markets during the first quarter of 2018, with declining U.S. equities and modest flattening of the treasury yield curve. While headline economic
More informationWorcester Business Journal Economic Forecast Breakfast February 13, Jeff Fuhrer, EVP and Senior Policy Advisor Federal Reserve Bank of Boston
Worcester Business Journal Economic Forecast Breakfast February 3, 25 Jeff Fuhrer, EVP and Senior Policy Advisor Federal Reserve Bank of Boston X Not this lady X Not this guy 2 26:Jan 26:Sep 27: 28:Jan
More informationCity and County of Denver
Report 06/30/2018 : Sr. I. Economic Commentary Volatility calmed in capital markets during the 2nd quarter of 2018. Most indices were able to gain back much of their losses seen in the first quarter. The
More informationNCLGIAWC Optimizing Investment Portfolios
NCLGIAWC Optimizing Investment Portfolios Wells Fargo Securities - Fixed Income Market & Portfolio Strategy February 2017 Garret Sloan, CFA Director WFS and its investment representatives do not act as
More informationVantage Investment Partners. Quarterly Market Review
Vantage Investment Partners Quarterly Market Review First Quarter 2016 Quarterly Market Review First Quarter 2016 This report features world capital market performance and a timeline of events for the
More informationGlobal Macroeconomic Outlook March 2017
March 2017 M E K E T A I N V E S T M E N T G R O U P 100 LOWDER BROOK DRIVE SUITE 1100 WESTWOOD MA 02090 781 471 3500 FAX 781 471 3411 Global Economic Outlook 1 For the first time in six years, the IMF
More informationThe chorus from Travis s 1947 song about the
NationalEconomicTrends December 7 What Do You Get for Sixteen Tons? You load sixteen tons, and what do you get? Another day older and deeper in debt Merle Travis The chorus from Travis s 197 song about
More informationMARCH 2018 Capital Markets Update
MARCH 2018 Market commentary ECONOMIC CLIMATE Hiring slowed from its fast pace last month the U.S. added 103,000 jobs to nonfarm payrolls in March, below the consensus estimate of 185,000. The U-3 unemployment
More informationSHAMBLING FORWARD. 02/13/2014 WORLD POPULATION 2 WALL STREET, MAIN STREET, AND CAPITOL HILL: AN ECONOMIC UPDATE
SHAMBLING FORWARD. WALL STREET, MAIN STREET, AND CAPITOL HILL: AN ECONOMIC UPDATE Shamble: To walk in an awkward, lazy, or unsteady manner, shuffling the feet FEBRUARY 12, 2014 David B. Hanson, CPA, CFA
More informationSeptember 20, 2006 Authorized for Public Release 119 of 132. Appendix 1: Materials used by Mr. Kos
September 2, 26 Authorized for Public Release 119 of 132 Appendix 1: Materials used by Mr. Kos September 2, 26 Authorized for Public Release 12 of 132 Class II Restricted FR 6. 5.75 5.5 5.25 5..75.5.25
More informationCity of El Segundo Office of the City Treasurer
City of El Segundo Office of the City Treasurer Date: September 15, 2015 From: Office of the City Treasurer To: El Segundo City Council RE: Investment Portfolio Report As of June 30, 2015 Introduction:
More informationThe U.S. Economic Outlook, Fiscal Issues and European Crisis
The U.S. Economic Outlook, Fiscal Issues and European Crisis October 1 Troy Davig Director of Research Outlook themes The US remains in a moderate growth environment The unemployment rate is 8.1%, close
More informationAngel Oak Capital Advisors, LLC
Angel Oak Capital Advisors, LLC Angel Oak Flexible Income Fund Quarterly Review March 31, 2018 Quarter in Review Risk assets were weaker in the first quarter driven primarily by rising rates, expectations
More informationBrevard County School District, Florida
Brevard County School District, Florida Investment Performance Review Quarter Ended September 30, 2012 Investment Advisors Steven Alexander, CTP, CGFO, Managing Director D. Scott Stitcher, CFA, Senior
More informationEconomic Outlook. William Strauss Senior Economist and Economic Advisor Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago
Economic Outlook CRF Credit & A/R Forum & EXPO Salt Lake City, UT October 23, 218 William Strauss Senior Economist and Economic Advisor Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago What I said In August The outlook
More informationOutlook for the Mexican Economy Alejandro Díaz de León Carrillo, Governor, Banco de México. April, 2018
Alejandro Díaz de León Carrillo, Governor, Banco de México April, Outline 1 External Conditions Current Outlook.1. Monetary Policy and Inflation Determinants in Mexico Evolution of Economic Activity Recent
More informationRECENT EVOLUTION AND OUTLOOK OF THE MEXICAN ECONOMY BANCO DE MÉXICO OCTOBER 2003
OCTOBER 23 RECENT EVOLUTION AND OUTLOOK OF THE MEXICAN ECONOMY BANCO DE MÉXICO 2 RECENT DEVELOPMENTS OUTLOOK MEDIUM-TERM CHALLENGES 3 RECENT DEVELOPMENTS In tandem with the global economic cycle, the Mexican
More informationINVESTMENT MARKET UPDATE UBC FACULTY PENSION PLAN
INVESTMENT MARKET UPDATE UBC FACULTY PENSION PLAN MIKE LESLIE, FACULTY PENSION PLAN NEIL WATSON, LEITH WHEELER FEBRUARY 12, 2014 Presenters Mike Leslie Executive Director, Investments Faculty Pension Plan
More informationThe National Bureau of Economic Research (NBER)
NationalEconomicTrends July Using Stock Market Liquidity to Forecast Recessions The National Bureau of Economic Research (NBER) Business Cycle Dating Committee (the committee that dates U.S. recessions)
More informationChart 1. U.S. Personal Saving Rate and Household Debt (consu plus mortgage) as a % of Disposable Personal Incom
Chart 1 U.S. Personal Saving Rate and Household Debt (consu plus mortgage) as a % of Disposable Personal Incom 16% 14% 12% 10% 8% 6% 4% Last Points 4Q 2015- Saving Rate, 5.4%; HH Debt, 1 140% 130% 120%
More informationDecember 2014 FINANCIAL MARKET REVIEW
December 2014 FINANCIAL MARKET REVIEW Buena Vista Investment Management LLC 241 Third Street South Wisconsin Rapids, WI 54494 715-422-0700 http://buenavistainv.com December 2014 Why Portfolios Remain Diversified
More informationMAY 2018 Capital Markets Update
MAY 2018 Market commentary U.S. ECONOMICS The U.S. added 223,000 jobs to payrolls in May, well above the consensus estimate of 180,000 and the expansion average of around 200,000. Sector job gains were
More informationHouse prices in the United States were 14.1 percent
NationalEconomicTrends August How Much Have US House Prices Fallen? House prices in the United States were 11 percent lower in the first quarter of than they were a year earlier, according to a widely
More informationTwin Problems: Employment and Consumer Spending
Twin Problems: Employment and Consumer Spending September 1, 11 Asha G. Bangalore agb3@ntrs.com The elevated unemployment rate remains at the top of the Fed s worry list. Nearly as important is the recent
More informationEconomic Indicators. Roland Berger Institute
Economic Indicators Roland Berger Institute October 2017 Overview Key points Economic Indicators A publication, compiled by the Roland Berger Institute, that provides you with the most important macroeconomic
More informationTURKEY: RECENT DEVELOPMENTS January March 2018
TURKEY: RECENT DEVELOPMENTS January March 218 3 81 4 698 961 7 34 7 96 9 66 8 98 1 931 1 6 11 2 11 88 11 19 1 883 1 97 12 48 12 112 Per capita GDP tripled while nominal GDP quadrupled in last 1 years 237
More informationHigh yield and emerging market bonds continue rally
Markit iboxx monthly report April 216 High yield and emerging market bonds continue rally April saw corporate and emerging market bond returns continue to gain amid a calmer economic backdrop. Calmer markets
More information2008 Economic and Market Outlook
Economic and Market Outlook Presented by: Gareth Watson Warren Jestin Vincent Delisle December 7 Economic Outlook Warren Jestin The Global Economic Landscape is Changing Rapidly Gears Down Emerging Powerhouses
More information