Economic Outlook June Economic Policy Division

Transcription

1 Economic Outlook June 215 Economic Policy Division

2 U.S. GDP Actual and Potential Quarterly, Q1 198 to Q4 215 Real GDP Trillion 29 Dollars Log Scale $18. Forecast $15. $12.5 Actual Potential $9. $ Potential GDP estimated by Congressional Budget Office

3 U.S. GDP: Estimates of Potential (Real $213 dollars)

4 % Change U.S. Potential GDP (Real $29 dollars) Forecast Potential GDP estimated by Congressional Budget Office

5 Real GDP Outlook Percent Change, Annual Rate

6 Personal Consumption Outlook Percent Change, Annual Rate Real Personal Consumption Expenditures

7 Real Disposable per Capita Personal Income % Change Year to Year

8 Household Net Worth Trillion $ 9 8 Household Wealth

9 Household Balance Sheet Trillion $ Household Assets Total Assets Nonfinancial Assets Financial Assets Trillion $ 2 15 Household Liabilities

10 Domestic Bank Lending Billions $ 3,5 Consumer Credit Outstanding 3,2 2,9 2,6 2,3 2, Billions $ Residential Real Estate Loans Billions $ 1,2 Consumer Revolving Loans 1,6 9 1,

11 Consumer Confidence University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment 11 Conference Board Consumer Confidence

12 Percent Change, Annual Rate 2 Real Business Fixed Investment

13 Investment Drivers Industrial Production Percent of Capacity Percent of Capacity Capacity Utilization Percent of Capacity Inventory-to Sales-Ratio

14 Sector Indicators SA, 2= month moving average; thous. tons 1,4 12 ATA Truck Tonnage Index 1,3 1,2 1,1 1 1, 9 Boxboard Production thous, 6-month moving average Total Rail Carloadings $ Bil, 3-month moving average Monthly Leasing and Finance Index

15 Domestic Bank Lending Billions $ 1, 9 C&I Loans at Commercial Banks small large

16 Domestic Bank Lending Percent Change Year to Year 25 2 C&I Loans at Commercial Banks small large

17 Business Confidence 7 65 ISM Manufacturing Index

18 U.S. Trade SAAR, Bil. Chn. 2$ Real Net Exports of Goods and Services Exchange Rate (Major Currencies/US$) U.S. Nominal Trade Weighted Exchange Rate

19 Eurozone Growth and Jobs Percent Change, Annual Rate 6. Real GDP Percent Unemployment Rates Source: Oxford Economics Percent Change, Year to Year Inflation: Eurozone CPI

20 European Growth Percent Change, Annual Rate 1. Real GDP France Italy Germany Spain Source: Oxford Economics

21 United Kingdom Growth and Jobs Percent Change, Annual Rate Real GDP Percent 1 8 Unemployment Rates Source: Oxford Economics

22 Emerging Markets Percent Change, Year to Year 14. Real GDP Mexico China India Brazil South Africa Russia Source: Oxford Economics

23 Labor Market Million Total Nonfarm Jobs Million Household Employment SA, Thousands, 4-week Moving Average Initial Unemployment Claims Percent Unemployment Rate April 5.4% 4 Unemployment Rate U

24 Labor Market Thousands Marginally Attached Discouraged Workers Thousands Part-time for Economic Reasons 1, 8, 6, 4, 2, SA, percent Civilian Participation Rate Median Weeks Unemployed, SA Duration of Unemployment

25 Employment-Population Ratio Percent

26 Inflation 7 Percent Change Year to Year 6 5 Consumer Price Index PCE Price Level

27 Interest Rate Spreads Percent Yield Spread 1-Year Treasury 3 month Treasury Percent TED Spread 3-Month LIBOR Minus 3-Month Treasury Risk Spread Moody's Seasoned Baa Corporate Bond Yield Minus Moody's Seasoned Aaa Corporate Bond Yield

28 Fed Policy Billions $ 4,5 4, Bank Assets and Liabilities 3,5 3, 2,5 2, 1,5 1, 5 Jan Apr. July Oct. Jan Apr Jul Oct Jan Apr Jul Oct Jan Apr Jul Oct Jan Apr Jul Oct Jan Apr Jul Oct Jan Apr Jul Oct Jan Apr Excess Federal Reserve Assets Money Supply (M1)

29 Housing Market Trends Thous. of Units, SAAR 5 Housing Starts Thous. of Units, SAAR New Home Sales (left axis) Home Sales 4 Existing Home Sales (right axis) Sales Price, Thous. $ Median Home Prices Existing Homes New Homes Housing Affordability Index

30 Housing Market Trends Millions Household Formation Thous. of Units, SAAR 7 New Homes (left axis) Existing Homes (right axis) 5 3 Housing Inventory Foreclosures: All Foreclosures: Subprime Delinquencies: Prime Delinquencies: Subprime Mortgage Delinquency and Foreclosure Rates Percent Home Mortgages with Negative Equity

31 Oil Thousands of Barrels per Day 9, 8, 7, 6, 5, 4, 3, US Crude Oil Production $/ Barrel Spot Oil Prices: West Texas Intermediate

32 Natural Gas Trillion Cubic Feet US Natural Gas Production $/ Barrel 14 Natural Gas Prices: Henry Hub

33 CBO s Baseline Deficit (January 215) Billions $ 5 Budget Deficit Percent of GDP 5 Deficit to GDP

34 Government Baseline Outside Debt (January 215) Billions $ 25, 2, 15, Debt 1, 5, Percent of GDP Debt to GDP

35 Government Gross Debt (January 215) Billions $ 3, 25, 2, Gross Debt 15, 1, 5, % 1% 8% Gross Debt to GDP 6% 4% 2% %

36 Government Revenues and Outlays ( percent of GDP) 3 25 Forecast 2 15 Revenues (%GDP) Outlays (%GDP) Source: CBO Baseline (January 215)