The Global Economy Heightened Risks
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1 The Global Economy Heightened Risks RISI Latin American Conference 16 August, 2016 David Katsnelson Director, Macroeconomics
2 Agenda 1. Global Snapshot A Two-Track World 2. Latin America Some Improvement 3. China Slowing, Not Crashing 4. The USA and Europe Growing Slowly 2
3 Global Economy Growing Moderately, with Heightened Risks Annual Real GDP Growth Euro Area USA 0.9% 1.6% 1.6% 1.3% 2.4% 2.6% 1.7% 2.3% Latin America China 7.3% 6.9% 6.4% 6.1% % 0.2% 0.6% 1.7% Source: IMF, RISI 3
4 Developed Economies Supporting Global Growth Global Real GDP* Growth *Measured at purchasing power parity exchange rates Source: IMF, RISI Advanced Emerging World 4
5 While Emerging Markets Have Slowed Annual Real GDP Growth 20% 15% Brazil India South Africa Russia China 10% 5% 0% -5% -10% Source: IMF, RISI 5
6 Oil Prices Staying Low on Oversupply West Texas Intermediate, Brent North Sea Crude Oil, Price per Barrel WTI Brent Copyright 2014 RISI, Inc. All rights reserved. Source: Energy Information Administration, RISI 6
7 Latin America Some Improvement, But Environment Remains Difficult Positives Commodity prices have stabilized Inflation manageable in most countries Negatives Slowing China Consumer over indebtedness Low investment Political risk Basket case economies
8 Difficult External Environment and Domestic Issues Weigh on Growth Latin America Annual Real GDP Growth* 7% 6% 5% 4% 3% 2% 1% 0% -1% -2% -3% *Measured at purchasing power parity exchange rates Source: IMF, RISI 8
9 Brazil Recession Continues Annual Real GDP Growth Brazil Chile Argentina Mexico Copyright 2014 RISI, Inc. All rights reserved. Copyright 2015 RISI, Inc. All rights reserved. Source: IMF, RISI 9
10 Inflation Spikes in Argentina Consumer Price Indexes, Annual Inflation Rate 50% 40% 30% Brazil Argentina Chile Mexico 20% 10% 0% % 10
11 Brazil s Consumption Growth Negative for Five Straight Quarters Export to Import Ratio and Year over Year Percentage Change in Consumption Exports/Imports (Left) Private Consumption (Right) 10% 8% 6% 4% 2% 0% -2% -4% -6% -8% Source: IBGE, BCB 11
12 Investment Low in Latin America Investment as a Percentage of GDP Brazil Emerging Economies Emerging Asia China Latin America Source: IMF 12
13 Brazilian Real to Weaken Again BRL/USD BRL/EUR
14 Chile s Economy Has Stabilized, But Near Term Growth May Be Slow Year over Year Change in GDP and Personal Consumption 16% 14% 12% GDP Consumption 10% 8% 6% 4% 2% 0% -2% % -6% Source: BCC 14
15 Chilean Peso Closely Linked to Copper Price CLP/USD Copper Inverse Scale 1,000 2,000 3,000 4,000 5,000 6,000 7,000 8,000 9, ,000 15
16 Mexican Economy Should Benefit from Improving US Consumption Year over Year Percentage Change in Exports and Industrial Production, Three Month Moving Average 50% 40% 30% 20% 10% 0% -10% -20% -30% -40% Exports (L) Industrial Output (R) 8% 6% 4% 2% 0% -2% -4% -6% -8% -10% Source: Inegi 16
17 Mexican Peso Weakness Does Not Fully Reflect Positive Fundamentals 18.0 MXN/USD
18 China in Transition Economy undergoing major restructuring Investment led growth to consumer based growth Days of 9 10% growth in the past Some financial liberalization Fiscal and monetary stimulus being implemented Increase in infrastructure spending New mechanisms for financing But how effective will it be? Debt has become a serious issue, and it is still rising Bank non performing loans near 20% Increased volatility for renminbi, but no major devaluation 18
19 Industrial Side of Economy Slowing Fixed Asset Investment, Year over Year Percentage Change; Industrial Production, Year over Year Percentage Change 50% 40% Industrial Production Growth Y/Y Fixed-Asset Investment Growth Y/Y 30% 20% 10% 0% -10% Source: PBC, CEIC 19
20 But Services Side of Economy Performing Better Purchasing Managers Index Manufacturing, Services PMI Manufacturing PMI Services Source: PBC, CEIC 20
21 Trade Remains Weak Exports and Imports, Year over Year Percentage Change 100% 80% Exports Imports 60% 40% 20% 0% -20% % -60% Source: China National Bureau of Statistics, CEIC 21
22 Industrial Imports Near All Time Highs Three Month Average of Imports by Quantity, Index 2005 = Iron Ore Copper Crude Oil Jan-00 Jul-00 Jan-01 Jul-01 Jan-02 Jul-02 Jan-03 Jul-03 Jan-04 Jul-04 Jan-05 Jul-05 Jan-06 Jul-06 Jan-07 Jul-07 Jan-08 Jul-08 Jan-09 Jul-09 Jan-10 Jul-10 Jan-11 Jul-11 Jan-12 Jul-12 Jan-13 Jul-13 Jan-14 Jul-14 Jan-15 Jul-15 Jan Source: CEIC
23 China s Economy Continues to Slow Real GDP Growth, Annual Percentage Change 14% 12% 10% 8% 6% 4% 2% 0% Source: NBS, RISI 23
24 Increasing Volatility for the Renminbi RMB/USD Source: Fed, RISI 24
25 The USA and Europe USA Oasis of Prosperity? Partially decoupling from the rest of the world Domestic based growth is healthy Employment and wage growth Cheap energy Housing Non domestic side of economy struggling Manufacturing Exports 25
26 Another Year of Healthy Job Growth in 2015 Change in US Total Payroll Employment, Millions Annualized Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics 26
27 Consumption Growth Driving US Economy Real Consumption Expenditure, Annualized Percentage Change; Unemployment Rate 11% 10% 9% 8% 7% 6% 5% 4% 3% 2% 1% 0% 1% 2% 3% 4% 5% 6% Consumption Unemployment Rate Source: Bureau of Economic Analysis, RISI 27
28 Strong Dollar, Weak External Environment, Oil Pressuring Manufacturing Index of Industrial Production, January 2000 = 1.00; PMI Industrial Production PMI Source: Federal Reserve, Institute for Supply Management 28
29 Dollar Strong on Decent Growth and Tighter Monetary Policy Trade Weighted US Dollar Index: Broad, January 1997 = Source: Federal Reserve 29
30 Low Natural Gas Prices Helping US Manufacturers Landed Prices of LNG May 2016, Dollars per MMBtu $5 $5 $4 $4 $3 $3 $2 $2 $1 $1 $ Source: Federal Energy Regulatory Commission 30
31 US Economy Growing, But Growth Is Unimpressive Real GDP Growth, Annualized Percent Change 9% 8% 7% 6% 5% 4% 3% 2% -1% 0% 1% -2% -3% -4% -5% -6% -7% -8% -9% Source: Bureau of Economic Analysis, RISI 31
32 Europe Slow and Steady The Positives Growth positive and steady Oil prices and the euro Bank lending improving The Negatives Risk of deflation Unemployment remains high Reforms have stalled The Risks Russia Quantitative Easing Migration crisis Brexit Fallout 32
33 Eurozone Economy Growing, But Weakly Annual Real GDP Growth Germany France Italy UK Eurozone Source: IMF, RISI 33
34 Consumer Leading the Recovery Real Consumption Expenditures, Year over Year Percentage Change 5% 4% 3% 2% 1% 0% -1% -2% -3% -4% -5% -6% Germany UK France Italy Spain Source: Eurostat 34
35 Unemployment Improving, But Still High Outside of Germany Harmonized Unemployment Rate 28% 26% 24% 22% 20% 18% 16% 14% 12% 10% 8% 6% 4% Eurozone Germany Greece Spain France Italy Portugal Source: Eurostat 35
36 Industrial Production Growth Tepid Industrial Production Indices, 2010= Euro Area Germany 0.80 France Italy Source: Eurostat 36
37 Deflation Still a Risk CPI, Core CPI; Year over Year Percentage Change 5.0% 4.0% 3.0% CPI Core CPI ECB Target 2.0% 1.0% 0.0% % Source: Eurostat 37
38 Euro Will Weaken Versus Dollar on Continuing Central Banks Actions USD/EUR $1.60 $1.50 $1.40 $1.30 $1.20 $1.10 $1.00 $0.90 $ Source: Fed, RISI 38
39 Conclusions Another difficult year for Latin America China s growth will be an important driver for other emerging economies Slowdown will continue, but no hard landing Increasing risks for emerging markets from the strong US dollar Revaluation of currencies 39
40 Conclusions US economy growing moderately Improving employment should support increased spending Housing market still presents upside risk Manufacturing side of the economy struggling Europe growing, but slowly Potential growth rate is lower QE helping somewhat Threat of deflation present, but low Risks around the world have increased 40
41 Thank you for your attention! For more information: Monthly Economic Commentary 41
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