The Global Economy Heightened Risks

Size: px
Start display at page:

Download "The Global Economy Heightened Risks"

Transcription

1 The Global Economy Heightened Risks RISI Latin American Conference 16 August, 2016 David Katsnelson Director, Macroeconomics

2 Agenda 1. Global Snapshot A Two-Track World 2. Latin America Some Improvement 3. China Slowing, Not Crashing 4. The USA and Europe Growing Slowly 2

3 Global Economy Growing Moderately, with Heightened Risks Annual Real GDP Growth Euro Area USA 0.9% 1.6% 1.6% 1.3% 2.4% 2.6% 1.7% 2.3% Latin America China 7.3% 6.9% 6.4% 6.1% % 0.2% 0.6% 1.7% Source: IMF, RISI 3

4 Developed Economies Supporting Global Growth Global Real GDP* Growth *Measured at purchasing power parity exchange rates Source: IMF, RISI Advanced Emerging World 4

5 While Emerging Markets Have Slowed Annual Real GDP Growth 20% 15% Brazil India South Africa Russia China 10% 5% 0% -5% -10% Source: IMF, RISI 5

6 Oil Prices Staying Low on Oversupply West Texas Intermediate, Brent North Sea Crude Oil, Price per Barrel WTI Brent Copyright 2014 RISI, Inc. All rights reserved. Source: Energy Information Administration, RISI 6

7 Latin America Some Improvement, But Environment Remains Difficult Positives Commodity prices have stabilized Inflation manageable in most countries Negatives Slowing China Consumer over indebtedness Low investment Political risk Basket case economies

8 Difficult External Environment and Domestic Issues Weigh on Growth Latin America Annual Real GDP Growth* 7% 6% 5% 4% 3% 2% 1% 0% -1% -2% -3% *Measured at purchasing power parity exchange rates Source: IMF, RISI 8

9 Brazil Recession Continues Annual Real GDP Growth Brazil Chile Argentina Mexico Copyright 2014 RISI, Inc. All rights reserved. Copyright 2015 RISI, Inc. All rights reserved. Source: IMF, RISI 9

10 Inflation Spikes in Argentina Consumer Price Indexes, Annual Inflation Rate 50% 40% 30% Brazil Argentina Chile Mexico 20% 10% 0% % 10

11 Brazil s Consumption Growth Negative for Five Straight Quarters Export to Import Ratio and Year over Year Percentage Change in Consumption Exports/Imports (Left) Private Consumption (Right) 10% 8% 6% 4% 2% 0% -2% -4% -6% -8% Source: IBGE, BCB 11

12 Investment Low in Latin America Investment as a Percentage of GDP Brazil Emerging Economies Emerging Asia China Latin America Source: IMF 12

13 Brazilian Real to Weaken Again BRL/USD BRL/EUR

14 Chile s Economy Has Stabilized, But Near Term Growth May Be Slow Year over Year Change in GDP and Personal Consumption 16% 14% 12% GDP Consumption 10% 8% 6% 4% 2% 0% -2% % -6% Source: BCC 14

15 Chilean Peso Closely Linked to Copper Price CLP/USD Copper Inverse Scale 1,000 2,000 3,000 4,000 5,000 6,000 7,000 8,000 9, ,000 15

16 Mexican Economy Should Benefit from Improving US Consumption Year over Year Percentage Change in Exports and Industrial Production, Three Month Moving Average 50% 40% 30% 20% 10% 0% -10% -20% -30% -40% Exports (L) Industrial Output (R) 8% 6% 4% 2% 0% -2% -4% -6% -8% -10% Source: Inegi 16

17 Mexican Peso Weakness Does Not Fully Reflect Positive Fundamentals 18.0 MXN/USD

18 China in Transition Economy undergoing major restructuring Investment led growth to consumer based growth Days of 9 10% growth in the past Some financial liberalization Fiscal and monetary stimulus being implemented Increase in infrastructure spending New mechanisms for financing But how effective will it be? Debt has become a serious issue, and it is still rising Bank non performing loans near 20% Increased volatility for renminbi, but no major devaluation 18

19 Industrial Side of Economy Slowing Fixed Asset Investment, Year over Year Percentage Change; Industrial Production, Year over Year Percentage Change 50% 40% Industrial Production Growth Y/Y Fixed-Asset Investment Growth Y/Y 30% 20% 10% 0% -10% Source: PBC, CEIC 19

20 But Services Side of Economy Performing Better Purchasing Managers Index Manufacturing, Services PMI Manufacturing PMI Services Source: PBC, CEIC 20

21 Trade Remains Weak Exports and Imports, Year over Year Percentage Change 100% 80% Exports Imports 60% 40% 20% 0% -20% % -60% Source: China National Bureau of Statistics, CEIC 21

22 Industrial Imports Near All Time Highs Three Month Average of Imports by Quantity, Index 2005 = Iron Ore Copper Crude Oil Jan-00 Jul-00 Jan-01 Jul-01 Jan-02 Jul-02 Jan-03 Jul-03 Jan-04 Jul-04 Jan-05 Jul-05 Jan-06 Jul-06 Jan-07 Jul-07 Jan-08 Jul-08 Jan-09 Jul-09 Jan-10 Jul-10 Jan-11 Jul-11 Jan-12 Jul-12 Jan-13 Jul-13 Jan-14 Jul-14 Jan-15 Jul-15 Jan Source: CEIC

23 China s Economy Continues to Slow Real GDP Growth, Annual Percentage Change 14% 12% 10% 8% 6% 4% 2% 0% Source: NBS, RISI 23

24 Increasing Volatility for the Renminbi RMB/USD Source: Fed, RISI 24

25 The USA and Europe USA Oasis of Prosperity? Partially decoupling from the rest of the world Domestic based growth is healthy Employment and wage growth Cheap energy Housing Non domestic side of economy struggling Manufacturing Exports 25

26 Another Year of Healthy Job Growth in 2015 Change in US Total Payroll Employment, Millions Annualized Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics 26

27 Consumption Growth Driving US Economy Real Consumption Expenditure, Annualized Percentage Change; Unemployment Rate 11% 10% 9% 8% 7% 6% 5% 4% 3% 2% 1% 0% 1% 2% 3% 4% 5% 6% Consumption Unemployment Rate Source: Bureau of Economic Analysis, RISI 27

28 Strong Dollar, Weak External Environment, Oil Pressuring Manufacturing Index of Industrial Production, January 2000 = 1.00; PMI Industrial Production PMI Source: Federal Reserve, Institute for Supply Management 28

29 Dollar Strong on Decent Growth and Tighter Monetary Policy Trade Weighted US Dollar Index: Broad, January 1997 = Source: Federal Reserve 29

30 Low Natural Gas Prices Helping US Manufacturers Landed Prices of LNG May 2016, Dollars per MMBtu $5 $5 $4 $4 $3 $3 $2 $2 $1 $1 $ Source: Federal Energy Regulatory Commission 30

31 US Economy Growing, But Growth Is Unimpressive Real GDP Growth, Annualized Percent Change 9% 8% 7% 6% 5% 4% 3% 2% -1% 0% 1% -2% -3% -4% -5% -6% -7% -8% -9% Source: Bureau of Economic Analysis, RISI 31

32 Europe Slow and Steady The Positives Growth positive and steady Oil prices and the euro Bank lending improving The Negatives Risk of deflation Unemployment remains high Reforms have stalled The Risks Russia Quantitative Easing Migration crisis Brexit Fallout 32

33 Eurozone Economy Growing, But Weakly Annual Real GDP Growth Germany France Italy UK Eurozone Source: IMF, RISI 33

34 Consumer Leading the Recovery Real Consumption Expenditures, Year over Year Percentage Change 5% 4% 3% 2% 1% 0% -1% -2% -3% -4% -5% -6% Germany UK France Italy Spain Source: Eurostat 34

35 Unemployment Improving, But Still High Outside of Germany Harmonized Unemployment Rate 28% 26% 24% 22% 20% 18% 16% 14% 12% 10% 8% 6% 4% Eurozone Germany Greece Spain France Italy Portugal Source: Eurostat 35

36 Industrial Production Growth Tepid Industrial Production Indices, 2010= Euro Area Germany 0.80 France Italy Source: Eurostat 36

37 Deflation Still a Risk CPI, Core CPI; Year over Year Percentage Change 5.0% 4.0% 3.0% CPI Core CPI ECB Target 2.0% 1.0% 0.0% % Source: Eurostat 37

38 Euro Will Weaken Versus Dollar on Continuing Central Banks Actions USD/EUR $1.60 $1.50 $1.40 $1.30 $1.20 $1.10 $1.00 $0.90 $ Source: Fed, RISI 38

39 Conclusions Another difficult year for Latin America China s growth will be an important driver for other emerging economies Slowdown will continue, but no hard landing Increasing risks for emerging markets from the strong US dollar Revaluation of currencies 39

40 Conclusions US economy growing moderately Improving employment should support increased spending Housing market still presents upside risk Manufacturing side of the economy struggling Europe growing, but slowly Potential growth rate is lower QE helping somewhat Threat of deflation present, but low Risks around the world have increased 40

41 Thank you for your attention! For more information: Monthly Economic Commentary 41

The Global Economy Heightened Risks

The Global Economy Heightened Risks The Global Economy Heightened Risks RISI North American Conference 5 October, 2016 David Katsnelson Director, Macroeconomics Agenda 1. Global Snapshot 2. USA Steady Growth 3. Europe Growing Slowly 4. China

More information

The Global Economy. RISI Asian Forest Products Summit 22 June, David Katsnelson Director, Macroeconomics

The Global Economy. RISI Asian Forest Products Summit 22 June, David Katsnelson Director, Macroeconomics The Global Economy Heightened drisks RISI Asian Forest Products Summit 22 June, 2016 David Katsnelson Director, Macroeconomics Agenda 1. Global Snapshot A Two-Track World 2. China Slowing, Not Crashing

More information

The Global Economy Modest Improvement

The Global Economy Modest Improvement Title line 1 Title line 2 The Global Economy Modest Improvement Name David Katsnelson, Director Title, date RISI Macroeconomic Service 3 June, 2015 1 Agenda 1. Global Snapshot 2. China 3. External Environment

More information

Global Economic Outlook

Global Economic Outlook Global Economic Outlook Will the growth continue and at what pace? Latin American Conference São Paulo August 2018 Lasse Sinikallas Director, Macroeconomics Copyright 2018 RISI, Inc. Proprietary Information

More information

Global Economic Outlook

Global Economic Outlook Global Economic Outlook Will growth continue and at what pace? International Containerboard Conference Chicago November 2018 Lasse Sinikallas Director, Macroeconomics Copyright 2018 RISI, Inc. Proprietary

More information

Global Economic Outlook

Global Economic Outlook Global Economic Outlook Will growth continue and at what pace? North American Conference San Francisco October 2018 Lasse Sinikallas Director, Macroeconomics Copyright 2018 RISI, Inc. Proprietary Information

More information

Global Economic Outlook Brittle Strength

Global Economic Outlook Brittle Strength Global Economic Outlook Brittle Strength RISI North American Conference October 2017 Lasse Sinikallas Director Macroeconomics Agenda 1. Global Snapshot Steady 2. North America Performing 3. China In Transition

More information

ECONOMIC OUTLOOK FINALLY, SYNCHRONIZED GLOBAL GROWTH

ECONOMIC OUTLOOK FINALLY, SYNCHRONIZED GLOBAL GROWTH ECONOMIC OUTLOOK FINALLY, SYNCHRONIZED GLOBAL GROWTH Augustine Faucher Chief Economist November 13, 2017 Senior Economic Advisor Chief Economist BETTER GROWTH THIS YEAR, AND AN UPGRADE TO 2018 World output,

More information

Summary. Economic Update 1 / 7 May Global Global GDP growth is forecast to accelerate to 2.9% in 2017 and maintain at 3.0% in 2018.

Summary. Economic Update 1 / 7 May Global Global GDP growth is forecast to accelerate to 2.9% in 2017 and maintain at 3.0% in 2018. Economic Update Economic Update 1 / 7 Summary 2 Global Global GDP growth is forecast to accelerate to 2.9% in 2017 and maintain at 3.0% in 2018. 3 Eurozone The eurozone s recovery appears to strengthen

More information

The GLOBAL and the EUROPEAN. Economic Outlook. Malaga, 19th May 2016 Christian Rebernig. handelsagenten.at

The GLOBAL and the EUROPEAN. Economic Outlook. Malaga, 19th May 2016 Christian Rebernig. handelsagenten.at The GLOBAL and the EUROPEAN Malaga, 19th May 2016 Christian Rebernig Economic Outlook handelsagenten.at The influences in 2016 handelsagenten.at 2 Growth forecasts 2015, 2016 and 2017 World 3,1 / 3,2 /

More information

Global Macroeconomic Monthly Review

Global Macroeconomic Monthly Review Global Macroeconomic Monthly Review August 14 th, 2018 Arie Tal, Research Economist Capital Markets Division, Economics Department 1 Please see disclaimer on the last page of this report Key Issues Global

More information

SEPTEMBER Overview

SEPTEMBER Overview Overview SEPTEMBER 214 Global growth. Global growth has been weaker than expected so far this year, as economic activity disappointed in a number of major countries in the first six months (Figure 1).

More information

Global Macroeconomic Outlook March 2016

Global Macroeconomic Outlook March 2016 Prepared by Meketa Investment Group Global Economic Outlook Projections for global growth continue to be lowered, as the economic recovery in many countries remains weak. The IMF reduced their 206 global

More information

PMI and economic outlook

PMI and economic outlook PMI and economic outlook Chris Williamson Chief Business Economist, IHS Markit 1 st November 2017 2 PMI coverage Current coverage Expansion pipeline 40+ Countries covered 27,000+ Companies surveyed every

More information

ECONOMIC OUTLOOK. World Economy Autumn No. 33 (2017 Q3) KIEL INSTITUTE NO. 33 (2017 Q3)

ECONOMIC OUTLOOK. World Economy Autumn No. 33 (2017 Q3) KIEL INSTITUTE NO. 33 (2017 Q3) KIEL INSTITUTE ECONOMIC OUTLOOK World Economy Autumn 7 Finalized September 6, 7 No. 33 (7 Q3) Klaus-Jürgen Gern, Philipp Hauber, Stefan Kooths, Galina Potjagailo, and Ulrich Stolzenburg Forecasting Center

More information

Economic Outlook January, 2012

Economic Outlook January, 2012 Economic Outlook January, 2012 Summary Global economy Low global growth scenario, tail risks have become smaller. Risks (Debt Ceiling, elections in Italy, growth in Europe). Brazil Activity shows signs

More information

North American Economic Outlook: Will the Recovery Be Sustained? U.S. Economic Outlook:

North American Economic Outlook: Will the Recovery Be Sustained? U.S. Economic Outlook: ECONOMICS I RESEARCH North American Economic Outlook: Will the Recovery Be Sustained? Presentation to the Canadian Association of Movers 11 Annual Conference Paul Ferley(1) 97-71 Assistant Chief Economist

More information

ECONOMIC OUTLOOK. World Economy Winter No. 37 (2017 Q4) KIEL INSTITUTE NO. 37 (2017 Q4)

ECONOMIC OUTLOOK. World Economy Winter No. 37 (2017 Q4) KIEL INSTITUTE NO. 37 (2017 Q4) NO. 7 (7 Q) KIEL INSTITUTE ECONOMIC OUTLOOK World Economy Winter 7 Finalized December, 7 No. 7 (7 Q) Klaus-Jürgen Gern, Philipp Hauber, Stefan Kooths, and Ulrich Stolzenburg Forecasting Center NO. 7 (7

More information

Global Sovereign Conference Singapore 6 September

Global Sovereign Conference Singapore 6 September Global Sovereign Conference Singapore September 1 --- --- Politics, Populism and the Global Economy Brian Coulton Chief Economist --- --- Key Messages World economy muddling along but global macro risks

More information

Leumi. Global Economics Monthly Review. Arie Tal, Research Economist. May 8, The Finance Division, Economics Department. leumiusa.

Leumi. Global Economics Monthly Review. Arie Tal, Research Economist. May 8, The Finance Division, Economics Department. leumiusa. Global Economics Monthly Review May 8, 2018 Arie Tal, Research Economist The Finance Division, Economics Department Leumi leumiusa.com Please see important disclaimer on the last page of this report Key

More information

Latin America Outlook. 1st QUARTER 2018

Latin America Outlook. 1st QUARTER 2018 Latin America Outlook 1st QUARTER Main messages 1. Strong global growth continues. Forecasts revised up in in most areas. Growth stabilizing in. 2. Growth recovers in Latin America, reaching close to potential

More information

Three-speed recovery. GDP growth. Percent Emerging and developing economies. World

Three-speed recovery. GDP growth. Percent Emerging and developing economies. World Three-speed recovery GDP growth Percent 1 8 6 4 2-2 -4-6 198 1985 199 1995 2 25 21 215 Source: IMF WEO; Milken Institute. Emerging and developing economies Advanced economies World Output is still below

More information

Teetering on the brink: is the world heading for another financial crisis?

Teetering on the brink: is the world heading for another financial crisis? Teetering on the brink: is the world heading for another financial crisis? Adrian Cooper CEO & Chief Economist acooper@oxfordeconomics.com Peter Suomi Director petersuomi@oxfordeconomics.com October 2011

More information

National Monetary Policy Forum. Chris Loewald, Head: Policy Development and Research 10 April 2016 Pretoria

National Monetary Policy Forum. Chris Loewald, Head: Policy Development and Research 10 April 2016 Pretoria National Monetary Policy Forum Chris Loewald, Head: Policy Development and Research 1 April 1 Pretoria In the April 17 MPR Executive summary & overview of the policy stance Overview of the world economy

More information

Economic Outlook. Macro Research Itaú Unibanco

Economic Outlook. Macro Research Itaú Unibanco Economic Outlook Macro Research Itaú Unibanco June, 2013 Agenda Economia Global Heterogeneous growth: U.S. growing faster, Europe in recession. Deceleration in the emerging economies. The Fed signals a

More information

Economic Outlook. Ottawa Chamber of Commerce/ Ottawa Business Journal: Mayor s Breakfast Series Ottawa, Ontario 27 April 2012.

Economic Outlook. Ottawa Chamber of Commerce/ Ottawa Business Journal: Mayor s Breakfast Series Ottawa, Ontario 27 April 2012. Economic Outlook Ottawa Chamber of Commerce/ Ottawa Business Journal: Mayor s Breakfast Series Ottawa, Ontario 27 April 2012 Mark Carney Mark Carney Governor Agenda Three global forces The consequences

More information

Summary. Economic Update 1 / 7 December 2017

Summary. Economic Update 1 / 7 December 2017 Economic Update Economic Update 1 / 7 Summary 2 Global Strengthening of the pickup in global growth, with GDP expected to increase 2.9% in 2017 and 3.1% in 2018. 3 Eurozone The eurozone recovery is upholding

More information

Management Report. Banco Espírito Santo do Oriente, S.A.

Management Report. Banco Espírito Santo do Oriente, S.A. Management Report Banco Espírito Santo do Oriente, S.A. Summary of Management Report International Economic Framework The year under review was marked by a slowdown in global economic activity and GDP

More information

Monetary Policy Report 1/12. Charts

Monetary Policy Report 1/12. Charts Monetary Policy Report / Charts Chart. Projected output gap¹) for Norway's trading partners. Percent. Q Q - - - - MPR / MPR / - - - - - 8 ) The output gap measures the percentage deviation between GDP

More information

Recent Recent Developments 0

Recent Recent Developments 0 Recent Developments 0 Global activity has slowed noticeably World Trade (annualized percent change of three month moving average over previous three month moving average) Purchasing Managers Index (PMI)

More information

The Outlook for the World Economy

The Outlook for the World Economy AIECE General Meeting Brussels, 14/15 November 218 The Outlook for the World Economy Downward risks are rising Klaus-Jürgen Gern Kiel Institute for the World Economy Forecasting Center Global growth has

More information

Global growth weakening as some risks materialise

Global growth weakening as some risks materialise OECD INTERIM ECONOMIC OUTLOOK Global growth weakening as some risks materialise 6 March 2019 Laurence Boone OECD Chief Economist http://www.oecd.org/eco/outlook/economic-outlook/ ECOSCOPE blog: oecdecoscope.wordpress.com

More information

Inflation Report. July September 2012

Inflation Report. July September 2012 July September 1 November 7, 1 1 Outline 1 External Conditions Economic Activity in Mexico 3 Monetary Policy and Inflation Determinants Forecasts and Balance of Risks External Conditions The growth rate

More information

Summary of macroeconomic forecasts GDP Growth Inflation Curr. Account / GDP Fiscal balances / GDP

Summary of macroeconomic forecasts GDP Growth Inflation Curr. Account / GDP Fiscal balances / GDP ECONOMIC RESEARCH DEPARTMENT Summary of macroeconomic forecasts GDP Growth Inflation Curr. Account / GDP Fiscal balances / GDP % 216 e 217 e 218 e 216 e 217 e 218 e 216 e 217 e 218 e 216 e 217 e 218 e

More information

Global Economic Prospects: Navigating strong currents

Global Economic Prospects: Navigating strong currents Global Economic Prospects: Navigating strong currents Andrew Burns World Bank January 18, 2011 http://www.worldbank.org/globaloutlook Main messages Most developing countries have passed with flying colors

More information

THE ECONOMIC OUTLOOK IN 2012 ILTA CONFERENCE. 9 May 2012 Vicky Pryce

THE ECONOMIC OUTLOOK IN 2012 ILTA CONFERENCE. 9 May 2012 Vicky Pryce THE ECONOMIC OUTLOOK IN 2012 ILTA CONFERENCE 9 May 2012 Vicky Pryce Contents Global and European economy UK economy Prospects for individuals and businesses Concluding remarks what next? Global and European

More information

GLOBAL OUTLOOK ECONOMIC WATCH. July 2017

GLOBAL OUTLOOK ECONOMIC WATCH. July 2017 GLOBAL OUTLOOK ECONOMIC WATCH July 2017 Positive global outlook, with projections revised across areas The global outlook remains positive. Our BBVA-GAIN model estimates global GDP growth at 1% QoQ in,

More information

World Economic outlook

World Economic outlook Frontier s Strategy Note: 01/23/2014 World Economic outlook IMF has just released the World Economic Update on the 21st January 2015 and we are displaying the main points here. Even with the sharp oil

More information

Global Investment Outlook & Strategy

Global Investment Outlook & Strategy PRUDENTIAL INTERNATIONAL INVESTMENTS ADVISERS, LLC. Global Investment Outlook & Strategy John Praveen, PhD Chief Investment Strategist FOR MORE INFORMATION CONTACT: Mayura Hooper Phone: 973-367-7930 Email:

More information

Global Economic Prospects: Update Global Recovery in Transition

Global Economic Prospects: Update Global Recovery in Transition Global Economic Prospects: Update Global Recovery in Transition April 2015 M. Ayhan Kose 1 Global Prospects: Three Questions 1. How have global economic conditions changed since December? Broadly as expected;

More information

ECONOMIC OUTLOOK. World Economy Winter No. 49 (2018 Q4) KIEL INSTITUTE NO. 49 (2018 Q4)

ECONOMIC OUTLOOK. World Economy Winter No. 49 (2018 Q4) KIEL INSTITUTE NO. 49 (2018 Q4) KIEL INSTITUTE ECONOMIC OUTLOOK World Economy Winter 8 Finalized December, 8 No. 9 (8 Q) Klaus-Jürgen Gern, Philipp Hauber, Stefan Kooths, Saskia Mösle, and Ulrich Stolzenburg Forecasting Center SLOWER

More information

Eurozone Economic Watch. July 2018

Eurozone Economic Watch. July 2018 Eurozone Economic Watch July 2018 Eurozone: A shift to more moderate growth with increased downward risks BBVA Research - Eurozone Economic Watch July 2018 / 2 Hard data improved in May but failed to recover

More information

Game-Changers in the Era of Dissonance

Game-Changers in the Era of Dissonance Game-Changers in the Era of Dissonance The research views expressed herein are those of the author and do not necessarily represent the views of the CME Group or its affiliates. All examples in this presentation

More information

The Saturday Economist UK Economic Outlook Q1 2015

The Saturday Economist UK Economic Outlook Q1 2015 The Saturday Economist The Saturday Economist UK Economic Outlook Q1 2015 Leisure and Construction driving recovery UK Economic Outlook March 2015 Page 1 The UK recovery continues. We expect growth of

More information

Can the Eurozone Remain at the Party? Howard Archer Country Intelligence Group Global Insight

Can the Eurozone Remain at the Party? Howard Archer Country Intelligence Group Global Insight Can the Eurozone Remain at the Party? Howard Archer Country Intelligence Group Global Insight Eurozone Growth Robust in First Half 4 (Percent change, q/q, real GDP) 3 2 1 0-1 GDP Dom Demand Cons Inv Govt.

More information

Economic Outlook June Economic Policy Division

Economic Outlook June Economic Policy Division Economic Outlook June 215 Economic Policy Division U.S. GDP Actual and Potential Quarterly, Q1 198 to Q4 215 Real GDP Trillion 29 Dollars Log Scale $18. Forecast $15. $12.5 Actual Potential $9. $6.5 198

More information

Macro Research Economic outlook

Macro Research Economic outlook Macro Research Economic outlook Macroeconomic Research Itaú Unibanco April 2017 Roadmap Global Economy The global outlook remains favorable Global growth positive momentum continues, with a synchronized

More information

INFLATION REPORT. March Recent trends and macroeconomic forecasts

INFLATION REPORT. March Recent trends and macroeconomic forecasts INFLATION REPORT March 2016 Recent trends and macroeconomic forecasts 2016-2017 INFLATION REPORT: Recent trends and macroeconomic forecasts 2016-2017 March 2016 International environment Public Monetary

More information

Chart 1. U.S. Personal Saving Rate and Household Debt (consu plus mortgage) as a % of Disposable Personal Incom

Chart 1. U.S. Personal Saving Rate and Household Debt (consu plus mortgage) as a % of Disposable Personal Incom Chart 1 U.S. Personal Saving Rate and Household Debt (consu plus mortgage) as a % of Disposable Personal Incom 16% 14% 12% 10% 8% 6% 4% Last Points 4Q 2015- Saving Rate, 5.4%; HH Debt, 1 140% 130% 120%

More information

Europe Outlook. Third Quarter 2015

Europe Outlook. Third Quarter 2015 Europe Outlook Third Quarter 2015 Main messages 1 2 3 4 5 Moderation of global growth and slowdown in emerging economies, with downside risks The recovery continues in the eurozone, but still marked by

More information

Quarterly Report. April June 2015

Quarterly Report. April June 2015 April June August 12, 1 1 Outline 1 2 Monetary Policy External Conditions 3 Economic Activity in Mexico Inflation Determinants Forecasts and Balance of Risks April-June 2 Monetary Policy Conduction in

More information

Economic Indicators. Roland Berger Institute

Economic Indicators. Roland Berger Institute Economic Indicators Roland Berger Institute October 2017 Overview Key points Economic Indicators A publication, compiled by the Roland Berger Institute, that provides you with the most important macroeconomic

More information

Using an index of 10, tell us how confident you are about the state of the U.S. economy. 17.0% (18) 31.1% (33) 15.1% (16) 14.5% (18) 23.

Using an index of 10, tell us how confident you are about the state of the U.S. economy. 17.0% (18) 31.1% (33) 15.1% (16) 14.5% (18) 23. 2009 Economic Survey 1. Using an index of 10, tell us how confident you are about the state of the U.S. economy. 1 very pessimistic 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 very confident rating average response count How confident

More information

Explore the themes and thinking behind our decisions.

Explore the themes and thinking behind our decisions. ASSET ALLOCATION COMMITTEE VIEWPOINTS Fourth Quarter 2016 These views are informed by a subjective assessment of the relative attractiveness of asset classes and subclasses over a 6- to 18-month horizon.

More information

Market Update. Market Update: Global Economic Themes. Overview

Market Update. Market Update: Global Economic Themes. Overview Market Update Late August 2013 Market Update: Global Economic Themes So far this summer, we have produced two Market Update papers covering capital market themes and geopolitical risks. In this final paper

More information

The Prospects Service

The Prospects Service The Prospects Service LEADING ECONOMIC ANALYSIS, FORECASTS AND DATA Global Prospects, January 2017 Toplines The world economy remains in a stage of heightened uncertainty, with ongoing Brexit negotiations,

More information

Quarterly Economic Outlook: Quarter on 25 September 2018 Strong Economic Expansions amidst Uncertainty of Trade War

Quarterly Economic Outlook: Quarter on 25 September 2018 Strong Economic Expansions amidst Uncertainty of Trade War Foregin Direct Investment (Billion USD) China U.S. Asia World Quarterly Economic Outlook: Quarter 3 2018 on 25 September 2018 Strong Economic Expansions amidst Uncertainty of Trade War Thai Economy: Thai

More information

World Economic Outlook. Recovery Strengthens, Remains Uneven April

World Economic Outlook. Recovery Strengthens, Remains Uneven April World Economic Outlook Recovery Strengthens, Remains Uneven April 214 1 April 214 WEO: Key Messages Global growth strengthened in 213H2, will accelerate further in 214-1 Advanced economies are providing

More information

Olivier Blanchard Economic Counsellor and Director of the Research Department, International Monetary Fund

Olivier Blanchard Economic Counsellor and Director of the Research Department, International Monetary Fund Centre for Economic Performance 21st Birthday Lecture Series The State of the World Economy Olivier Blanchard Economic Counsellor and Director of the Research Department, International Monetary Fund Lord

More information

Emerging Markets Weekly Economic Briefing

Emerging Markets Weekly Economic Briefing Emerging Markets Weekly Economic Briefing The risks of renewed capital flight from emerging markets Recent episodes of capital flight from emerging markets have highlighted the vulnerability of a number

More information

Inflation Report. January March 2013

Inflation Report. January March 2013 January March 2013 May 8, 2013 Outline 1 External Conditions 2 Economic Activity in Mexico 3 Monetary Policy and Inflation Determinants 4 Forecasts and Balance of Risks 2 External Conditions Global Environment

More information

Webinar: Credit crunch China and forward guidance in the UK why does it matter?

Webinar: Credit crunch China and forward guidance in the UK why does it matter? Webinar: Credit crunch China and forward guidance in the UK why does it matter? Simon Thompson, ICAEW Charles Davis, Cebr Making sense of the economic outlook Simon Thompson, Head of Corporate Communications

More information

Global Economic Watch

Global Economic Watch BBVA Research Global Economic Watch July 2018 / 1 Global Economic Watch July 2018 Steady global growth, but risks intensify Our BBVA-GAIN model projects that global growth could remain slightly above 1%

More information

Monetary Policy Report 3/12. Charts

Monetary Policy Report 3/12. Charts Monetary Policy Report / Charts Chart. Key rates and estimated forward rates as at June and October.¹) Percent. January December ²) US Euro area³) UK 9 ) Broken lines show estimated forward rates as at

More information

Economic Update. Port Finance Seminar. Paul Bingham. Global Insight, Inc. Copyright 2006 Global Insight, Inc.

Economic Update. Port Finance Seminar. Paul Bingham. Global Insight, Inc. Copyright 2006 Global Insight, Inc. Economic Update Copyright 26 Global Insight, Inc. Port Finance Seminar Paul Bingham Global Insight, Inc. Baltimore, MD May 16, 26 The World Economy: Is the Risk of a Boom-Bust Rising? As the U.S. Economy

More information

Chapter 1 International economy

Chapter 1 International economy Chapter International economy. Main points from the OECD's Economic Outlook A broad-based recovery has taken hold Asia, the US and the UK have taken the lead. Continental Europe will follow Investment

More information

Eurozone. Economic Watch FEBRUARY 2017

Eurozone. Economic Watch FEBRUARY 2017 Eurozone Economic Watch FEBRUARY 2017 EUROZONE WATCH FEBRUARY 2017 Eurozone: A slight upward revision to our GDP growth projections The recovery proceeded at a steady and solid pace in, resulting in an

More information

March PRUDENTIAL INTERNATIONAL INVESTMENTS ADVISERS, LLC. Global Investment Outlook & Strategy

March PRUDENTIAL INTERNATIONAL INVESTMENTS ADVISERS, LLC. Global Investment Outlook & Strategy PRUDENTIAL INTERNATIONAL INVESTMENTS ADVISERS, LLC. Global Investment Outlook & Strategy March 2016 Stocks likely to Recover Further with Improving Growth & Recession Fears Easing, Fresh Stimulus from

More information

Economic outlook Trump: Taxes, Trade & Treasuries

Economic outlook Trump: Taxes, Trade & Treasuries Economic outlook Trump: Taxes, Trade & Treasuries January 17, 2017 Douglas Porter, CFA Chief Economist, BMO Financial Group douglas.porter@bmo.com 416-359-4887 Please refer to the next page for Important

More information

Economic Outlook June Economic Policy Division

Economic Outlook June Economic Policy Division Economic Outlook June 215 Economic Policy Division U.S. GDP Actual and Potential Quarterly, Q1 198 to Q4 215 Real GDP Trillion 29 Dollars Log Scale $18. Forecast $15. $12.5 Actual Potential $9. $6.5 198

More information

Jason Henderson Vice President and Branch Executive Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City Omaha Branch September 27, 2011

Jason Henderson Vice President and Branch Executive Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City Omaha Branch   September 27, 2011 Jason Henderson Vice President and Branch Executive September 27, 211 The views expressed are those of the author and do not necessarily reflect the opinions of the Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City

More information

Three Big Global Questions

Three Big Global Questions Three Big Global Questions Nick Kounis Head Macro & Financial Markets Research Marine Money Singapore 22 September 2015 Will developed economies continue to recover? 2 US consumer making a comeback Job

More information

World Economic Trend, Spring 2006, No. 9

World Economic Trend, Spring 2006, No. 9 World Economic Trend, Spring, No. 9 Published on June 8 by the Cabinet Office Key Points of Chapter 1 (summary) 1. Global price stability: Global economy continues to show price stability and recovery

More information

Economic Outlook: Global and India. Ajit Ranade IEEMA T & D Conclave December 12, 2014

Economic Outlook: Global and India. Ajit Ranade IEEMA T & D Conclave December 12, 2014 Economic Outlook: Global and India Ajit Ranade IEEMA T & D Conclave December 12, 2014 Global scenario US expected to drive global growth in 2015 Difference from % YoY Growth October Actual October Projections

More information

Quarterly market summary 4th Quarter 2018

Quarterly market summary 4th Quarter 2018 POOLED PENSIONS Quarterly market summary 4th Quarter 2018 Economic overview As the quarter progressed, investors became increasingly concerned about the outlook for the world economy. The perception was

More information

Fed monetary policy amid a global backdrop of negative interest rates

Fed monetary policy amid a global backdrop of negative interest rates Fed monetary policy amid a global backdrop of negative interest rates Kathy Bostjancic Head of US Macro Investor Services kathybostjancic@oxfordeconomics.com April 2016 Oxford Economics forecast highlights

More information

Global Macroeconomic Monthly Review

Global Macroeconomic Monthly Review Global Macroeconomic Monthly Review October 16 th, 2018 Arie Tal, Research Economist Capital Markets Division, Economics Department Please see disclaimer on the last page of this report 1 Key Issues Global

More information

European Debt Crisis in Focus: Time to Re-Risk Portfolios?

European Debt Crisis in Focus: Time to Re-Risk Portfolios? Asset Management European Debt Crisis in Focus: Time to Re-Risk Portfolios? March 2012 Robert Parker Managing Director Senior Advisor - Credit Suisse Executive Summary WHITE PAPER Over the past year, the

More information

Eurozone Economic Watch

Eurozone Economic Watch BBVA Research - Global Economic Watch December 2018 / 1 Eurozone Economic Watch December 2018 Eurozone GDP growth still slows gradually, but high uncertainty could take its toll GDP growth could grow by

More information

Explore the themes and thinking behind our decisions.

Explore the themes and thinking behind our decisions. ASSET ALLOCATION COMMITTEE VIEWPOINTS First Quarter 2017 These views are informed by a subjective assessment of the relative attractiveness of asset classes and subclasses over a 6- to 18-month horizon.

More information

Global Economic Outlook John Hawksworth Chief Economist, PwC September 2012

Global Economic Outlook John Hawksworth Chief Economist, PwC September 2012 www.pwc.co.uk/economics Global Economic Outlook John Hawksworth Chief Economist, September 2012 Agenda Global overview Short term prospects for Europe, US and BRICs Long term trends: demographics, growth

More information

Brazil: the adjustment continues, GDP is contracting and inflation is taking off

Brazil: the adjustment continues, GDP is contracting and inflation is taking off Brazil: the adjustment continues, GDP is contracting and inflation is taking off Enestor Dos Santos BBVA Research Principal Economist: Emerging Economies Unit Brazil Economic Outlook 2T25 Madrid, 3 June

More information

Latin American Quarterly Outlook JULY 2011

Latin American Quarterly Outlook JULY 2011 Latin American Quarterly Outlook JULY 2011 LATIN AMERICA Real Estate Outlook Key Economic Themes Almost three years after the peak of the global crisis, Latin America has two contrasting stories: Mexico

More information

2. International developments

2. International developments 2. International developments (6) During the period, global economic developments were generally positive. The economy grew faster in the second quarter, mainly driven by the favourable financing conditions

More information

Previsions Macroeconòmiques. Macroeconomic scenario for the Catalan economy 2017 and June 2017

Previsions Macroeconòmiques. Macroeconomic scenario for the Catalan economy 2017 and June 2017 PM Previsions Macroeconòmiques Macroeconomic scenario for the Catalan economy 2017 and 2018 June 2017 Previsions macroeconòmiques Macroeconomic scenario for the Catalan economy June 2017 ISSN: 2013-2182

More information

Credit, Commodities, and Consumers: An Economic Update

Credit, Commodities, and Consumers: An Economic Update Credit, Commodities, and Consumers: An Economic Update ROBIN J. ANDERSON, Ph.D. SENIOR ECONOMIST PRINCIPAL GLOBAL INVESTORS June 2015 All expressions of opinion and predictions in this report are subject

More information

Economic Outlook. Macroeconomic Research Itaú Unibanco

Economic Outlook. Macroeconomic Research Itaú Unibanco Economic Outlook Macroeconomic Research Itaú Unibanco March 2015 Overview International Global growth on the rise. U.S. interest rates will soon follow U.S. economic fundamentals remain solid. Rates are

More information

Country Risk Conference Coface Country Risk

Country Risk Conference Coface Country Risk WORLD OVERVIEW OF COUNTRY RISK Country Risk Conference Coface Country Risk > Johannesburg, South Conference Africa 2014 > 12 th June 2013 Thursday, 15 th May 2014 Johannesburg, South Africa 1 Agenda 8.30

More information

Global Economic Outlook 2014 Year Ahead Outlook January 2014

Global Economic Outlook 2014 Year Ahead Outlook January 2014 PRUDENTIAL INTERNATIONAL INVESTMENTS ADVISERS, LLC. Global Economic Outlook 2014 Year Ahead Outlook January 2014 2014 Year Ahead - Global Economic Outlook Global Growth Strengthens as U.S. & U.K. GDP Growth

More information

Eurozone Economic Watch Higher growth forecasts for January 2018

Eurozone Economic Watch Higher growth forecasts for January 2018 Eurozone Economic Watch Higher growth forecasts for 2018-19 January 2018 Eurozone Economic Watch January 2018 Eurozone: Higher growth forecasts for 2018-19 Our MICA-BBVA model estimates a broadly stable

More information

Three Big Global Questions

Three Big Global Questions Three Big Global Questions Nick Kounis Head Macro & Financial Markets Research Marine Money Athens 14 October 2015 Will developed economies continue to recover? 2 US consumer making a comeback Job gains,

More information

Economic Outlook. William Strauss Senior Economist and Economic Advisor Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago

Economic Outlook. William Strauss Senior Economist and Economic Advisor Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago Economic Outlook CRF Credit & A/R Forum & EXPO Salt Lake City, UT October 23, 218 William Strauss Senior Economist and Economic Advisor Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago What I said In August The outlook

More information

The Economic and Political Outlook. By Roger Bootle

The Economic and Political Outlook. By Roger Bootle The Economic and Political Outlook By Roger Bootle 1. Agenda The World, China and America. Recovery in the euro-zone. Political worries in Europe. The UK economy. Brexit opportunities and challenges. The

More information

Monetary Policy Report 2/12. Charts

Monetary Policy Report 2/12. Charts Monetary Policy Report / Charts Chart. Yields on -year government bonds. Percent. January June Greece (left-hand scale) Germany Spain Italy 8 7 Jan- Jul- Jan- Jul- Jan- Source: Thomson Reuters Chart. Developments

More information

Latin America Outlook 3Q18

Latin America Outlook 3Q18 BBVA Research - Latin America Outlook 3Q18 / 1 Latin America Outlook 3Q18 July Key messages Global growth remains robust, but risks also increase. Robust growth in the US on the back of fiscal stimulus.

More information

ARUBA. April 5, IV. Internationa. l forecasts...4. A. United. States...4 and regions. tel Disclaimer: in relation

ARUBA. April 5, IV. Internationa. l forecasts...4. A. United. States...4 and regions. tel Disclaimer: in relation C CENTRALE BANK VAN ARUBA ECONOMIC FORECAST MONITOR A summary of global and national projections April 5, 2016 I. Executive summary... 1 II. Annual forecasts for Aruba... 2 III. Quarterly and annual forecasts

More information

Global Investment Outlook & Strategy

Global Investment Outlook & Strategy PRUDENTIAL INTERNATIONAL INVESTMENTS ADVISERS, LLC. Global Investment Outlook & Strategy February 2017 Global Stock Market Rally likely to Continue with Solid Q4 Earnings & Stronger 2017 Earnings, ECB

More information

The Korean Economy: Resilience amid Turbulence

The Korean Economy: Resilience amid Turbulence The Korean Economy: Resilience amid Turbulence Dr. Il SaKong Special Economic Advisor Adviser to the President Republic of Korea November 17, 17, 2008 November 17, 2008 1. Recent Macroeconomic Developments

More information

The Spanish economy in 2014

The Spanish economy in 2014 The Spanish economy in 2014 April 2014 World growth at differents speeds Forecasted real GDP growth in 2014 Changes in IMF forecasts for 2014 GDP growth since last summer Source: International Monetary

More information

Global economy in charts

Global economy in charts Global economy in charts Ian Stewart, Debapratim De, Tom Simmons & Peter Ireson Economics & Markets Research, Deloitte, London Summary 1. Global activity easing 2. Slowdown most apparent in euro area 3.

More information