Monthly Economic Indicators And Charts

Transcription

1 Monthly Economic Indicators And Charts December 17 Richard F. Moody- Chief Economist Steve Pfitzer Investor Relations Information contained herein is based on data obtained from recognized sources believed to be reliable. This information has not been verified by us, and we do not make any representations about accuracy, completeness or reliability. Any opinions expressed are solely those of the author and are subject to change without notice.

2 Monthly Highlights / Commentary U.S. Economy Picks Up Where It Left Off The BEA s second estimate puts Q real GDP growth at. percent, annualized, up from the first estimate of. percent. Fixed investment, inventories, net exports, and government spending were all revised up from the initial estimates. With the upward revision, real business investment in equipment and machinery is now shown to have risen at an annualized rate of 1. percent in Q, and we expect the Q GDP data to show another solid gain in business investment. The November employment report is mostly free of noise related to Hurricanes Harvey and Irma, and shows the labor market remains firmly on track. Total nonfarm employment rose by, jobs with private sector payrolls up by 1, jobs. Job growth remains notably broad based, and the length of the average workweek increased. Additionally, holiday-related hiring in retail trade was the strongest of any November since 1, suggesting brick and mortar retailers are still very much in the consumer spending game. We expect the FOMC to raise the mid-point of the Fed funds rate target range by basis points at their December meting. The FOMC will also release updated economic and financial projections, including an updated dot plot. We will caution, however, that this edition will have little signaling value given what will be significant changes in the composition of the FOMC over coming months. As the effects of the hurricanes fade from the data, it is increasingly clear the U.S. economy remains on a solid growth path while global economic growth is accelerating. At present, potential policy mistakes, at home or abroad, pose the biggest downside risks to growth.

3 ECONOMIC/FINANCIAL DATA HIGHLIGHTS December 17 Indicator: Last Observation: Reported As: Value: % Change Year Ago, or Year Ago Value: Real GDP Q 17 ( nd est.) Annualized % change.%.% Payroll Employment November 17 Monthly change, thousands of jobs + 1.% Private Sector Employment November 17 Monthly change, thousands of jobs +1 1.% Unemployment Rate November 17 % of labor force.1%.% U Unemployment/Underemployment November 17 % of labor force.% 9.% Unemployed 7 Weeks or More November 17 Millions of people Aggregate Private Sector Earnings November 17 Monthly % change.%.77% Real Personal Disposable Income October 17 Monthly % change.1%.1% Real Personal Disposable Income ex Transfers October 17 Monthly % change.9%.7% Real Personal Consumption Expenditures October 17 Monthly % change.11%.1% Personal Savings Rate October 17 % of disposable personal income.%.% Consumer Price Index Total October 17 Monthly % change.11%.% Consumer Price Index Core October 17 Monthly % change.% 1.77% Producer Price Index Final Demand October 17 Monthly % change.%.71% Producer Price Index Core Final Demand October 17 Monthly % change.%.% Single Family Housing Permits October 17 Seasonally adjusted annual rate 9, 7, Multi Family Housing Permits October 17 Seasonally adjusted annual rate, 9, Single Family Housing Starts October 17 Seasonally adjusted annual rate 77,, Multi Family Housing Stars October 17 Seasonally adjusted annual rate 1,, Industrial Production October 17 Monthly % change.9%.% ISM Manufacturing Index November 17 Index value, %.%.% ISM New Manufacturing Orders Index November 17 Index value, %.%.% ISM Non Manufacturing Index November 17 Index value, % 7.%.% ISM New Non Manufacturing Orders Index November 17 Index Value, %.7% 7.% Federal Funds Rate Target Range Mid Point December, 17 Percent 1.1%.7% One Month LIBOR Rate December, 17 Percent 1.%.% Month U.S. Treasury Bill Yield December, 17 Percent 1.%.1% Year U.S. Treasury Note Yield December, 17 Percent 1.79% 1.1% 1 Year U.S. Treasury Note Yield December, 17 Percent.%.% Dollar Euro Exchange Rate December, 17 Euros per U.S. dollar.1.91 Dollar Yen Exchange Rate December, 17 Yen per U.S. dollar Federal Reserve Broad U.S. Dollar Index December 1, 17 Index value, 1997 =

4 Real GDP Annualized Percentage Change Contribution To Real GDP Growth percentage points PCE Business Fixed Inv. Inventories Res. Fixed Inv. Net Exports Government Q '1 Q '1 Q '1 Q1 '17 Q '17 Q ' Total Payroll Employment monthly change, seasonally adjusted, thousands (L) 1-month change, not seasonally adjusted, millions (R) Unemployment Rate, % U (unemployment/underemployment) U (unemployment)

5 Civilian Labor Force 7 labor force participation rate (%) employment-to-population ratio, % Long-Term Unemployed Unemployed for 7 Weeks or Longer, Millions of People Consumers Assessment of Labor Market Conditions - Spread between jobs plentiful and "jobs hard to get", inverse scale (L) - Unemployment rate, % (R) Private Sector Hiring Diffusion Index -month moving averages Net % of private sector industries hiring compared to: one month ago six months ago

6 - - - Real Disposable Personal Income % change year ago Total Excluding transfers Personal Spending, Saving Personal consumption expenditures, % change year ago Personal saving rate, % of disposable personal income Real Consumer Spending % change year ago durable goods nondurable goods services Total Household Debt % of disposable personal income excluding transfer payments % of disposable personal income

7 1. Household Financial Obligations Ratio % of disposable income Consumer Confidence Index 19 = Present Conditions Expectations Industrial Production, Capacity Utilization All Sectors Capacity utilization rate, % (R) Industrial production, % change year ago (L) Industrial Production, Capacity Utilization Manufacturing Sector Capacity utilization rate, % (R) Industrial production, % change year ago (L)

8 7 ISM Index diffusion index, net percentage Manufacturing Index Non-Manufacturing Index 1 1 Core Capital Goods Orders -month moving averages 7 above. % indicates expansion; below.% indicates contraction % change year ago (L) - $ billion (R) , 1, Housing Permits ( s of units) not seasonally adjusted, 1-month moving sum Single Family (L) Multi-Family (R) 1, 1, Housing Starts ( s of units) not seasonally adjusted, 1-month moving sum Single Family (L) Multi-Family (R) 1, 1, 1, 1, 1, 1,

9 7, 7,,,,,,, Home Sales ( s of units) not seasonally adjusted, 1-month moving sum Existing Homes (L) New Homes (R), , 1, 1,1 1, 9 7,,,,,,,,,, 1, 1, Foreclosure Starts United States number of loans, Total Judicial States Non-Judicial States , Foreclosure Starts Regions Footprint number of loans Index of House Prices % change year ago,, 1 1 FHFA - Purchase Only Core Logic 17, 1, 1, 1, - 7, -,, Total Judicial States Non-Judicial States

10 Median Home Prices $ thousands, Existing Home Inventories Units available for sale, ths (L) Months Supply (R) 1, 1 7 New Homes Existing Homes, 1,,, , , New Home Inventories Units available for sale, ths (L) Months Supply (R) CoreLogic Loan Performance Data United States REO Inventory, ths (L) 9+day delinquency rate, % (R)

11 Survey of Senior Lending Officers C&I Loans net % of banks reporting rising loan demand from: large/medium firms small firms Survey of Senior Lending Officers Prime Mortgages net % of banks reporting: stronger loan demand tighter lending standards Bank Charge-Off Rates By Loan Type, % 1 1 HELOC Mortgage Credit Cards Other Consumer Loans Producer Price Index % change year ago Total Core

12 1-1 Consumer Price Index % change year ago Total Core WTI Crude Oil, Retail Gasoline Prices WTI, $ per bbl (L) gasoline, $ per gallon (R) Selected Interest Rates, % weekly data 1-year Treasury AAA Corporate Bond -year Fixed Rate Mortgage Spread Between Yields On 1-year and -year Treasury Notes. weekly data

13 TED Spread spread between -month LIBOR and -month T-bill, % Japanese Yen per U.S. Dollar weekly data Chinese Yuan per U.S. Dollar weekly data 1. Euros per U.S. Dollar weekly data