SEMA INDUSTRY INDICATORS
|
|
- Constance Anthony
- 5 years ago
- Views:
Transcription
1 SEMA INDUSTRY INDICATORS APR 2018 The final estimate of fourth quarter GDP, published in the last month, showed upwardly revised economic growth for the quarter of 2.9 percent. This in turn makes 2017 one of the strongest years of the expansion. While incoming data continues to dampen projections for first quarter GDP, this is likely driven by poor seasonal adjustment and not a decisive shift from trend. Underlying economic fundamentals remain broadly intact. CURRENT OUTLOOK FUTURE OUTLOOK NEGATIVE POSITIVE NEGATIVE POSITIVE Consumer sentiment hit new highs and it is worth noting that sentiment was propelled higher by households in the bottom third of household income. The Commerce Department estimates bonuses from the Tax Cut and Jobs Act adds $30 billion to personal income at an annual rate and households are probably starting to feel this increase. Average hourly earnings are also starting to pick-up. Average hourly earnings are 2.7 percent above their year-ago levels - a pace pushing to break out of the roughly 2.5 percent trend we ve seen over the last year. The recently released March employment report showed sub-par job growth during the month. The economy added only 103,000 jobs but that comes on the heels of phenomenal job growth in February. The unemployment rate remains at 4.1 percent - what many economists would consider an economy at full employment. We ve now had 90 months of consecutive job gains. Manufacturing continues to be a bright spot for the U.S. economy. Manufacturing added 22,000 jobs in the prior month. The ISM manufacturing survey was higher in February, suggesting a continuing expansion. Recently released data show new orders for manufactured durable goods rose strongly in February - led by increases in the transportation category. Both autos and aircraft contributed. The value of unfilled orders for motor vehicles and parts industries is over seven percent higher than a year ago. Recent threats of proposed tariffs and reciprocal tariffs to and from some of our largest trading partners is an offsetting force. These tariffs will stymie growth. Expect volatility to remain until we have greater clarity. SEMA INDUSTRY INDICATORS APR
2 ECONOMICS Revised data show the economy grew a robust 2.9 percent in the final quarter of 2017 and 2.6 percent for all of Consumer spending for the year was a strong 2.8 percent on average. The most promising aspect was the return of business fixed investment which grew 6.3 percent after an average decline of 0.2 percent in the prior six quarters. Early projections for the first quarter suggest sub-two-percent growth, but this is likely a poor gauge of underlying economic health for the year ahead and we expect growth to improve in subsequent quarters. Consumer sentiment reached its highest level since 2004, though it declined marginally from the mid-month reading. Gains in sentiment this month were driven by households with incomes in the bottom third. This bodes well for spending among this cohort of households. The index actually fell for households in the top third - driven lower by uncertainty related to the impact of tariffs and government economic policy. As interest rates rise, consumers will weigh the trade-off between spending and savings. The employment report noted strong wage growth which should support near-term consumer sentiment, even in the face of rising uncertainties. Consumer spending has slowed since the start of the year and has caused concern that the consumer is faltering. The slowdown is not worrisome yet. Rather the slowdown in spending is most likely driven by consumers taking a breather after strong holiday spending. This is a pattern we ve seen in recent years. A healthy job market is keeping unemployment low and starting to exert upward pressure on wage growth. Household balance sheets remain solid despite volatility in the equity markets. Moreover, the enacted tax cuts will provide further support to spending in the course of the year. U.S. ECONOMIC GROWTH Real GDP (Q/Q % Change SAAR) 12 per. Mov. Avg. (Real GDP (Q/Q % Change SAAR)) Bureau of Economic Analysis, Astra Insights CONSUMER SENTIMENT Consumer Sentiment (1966:Q1=100) 12 per. Mov. Avg. (Consumer Sentiment (1966:Q1=100)) University of Michigan, Astra Insights CONSUMER SPENDING 2.9% 6% 2% -2% - Consumer Spending (Y/Y % change) 12 per. Mov. Avg. (Consumer Spending (Y/Y % change)) % Bureau of Economic Analysis, Astra Insights SEMA INDUSTRY INDICATORS APR
3 ECONOMICS Employers added just 103,000 jobs to payroll over the last month. The unemployment rate remains unchanged at 4.1 percent. With a low unemployment rate, weak job growth isn t completely unexpected. We ve now had 90 consecutive months of job gains. We also had very strong gains in February so weakness over the last month could be viewed as payback. Over the last month we did see strong gains in wage growth. Average hourly earnings are up 2.7 percent over the last year. Manufacturing reported 22,000 new jobs over the last month. U.S. UNEMPLOYMENT 11% 1 9% 8% 7% 6% 4.1% 3% U.S. Unemployment Rate 12 per. Mov. Avg. (U.S. Unemployment Rate) Bureau of Labor Statistics, Astra Insights The US dollar exchange rate against other world currencies increased 0.4 percent over the last month. It is now down 5.6 percent on a year-over-year basis. Concerns of a trade war driven by reciprocal tariffs between China and the United States place downward pressure on the dollar. Volatility and risk also drive investors away from the U.S. dollar and towards safehaven currencies like the Japanese Yen. At the same time, strong underlying economic fundamentals and expectations of rising interest rates bolster the dollar because the currency becomes more attractive from a yield perspective. Auto parts production in the United States increased 0.8 percent in February and is up 6.7 percent since last year. February saw strong gains in overall industrial production, driven by broad-based improvements in manufacturing activity. Strength in the manufacturing sector pushed factory utilization rates higher. At 76.9 percent, factory utilization is the highest it has been in the current expansion. TRADE WEIGHTED U.S. DOLLAR INDEX Trade Weighted U.S. Dollar Index (Y/Y % change) 12 per. Mov. Avg. (Trade Weighted U.S. Dollar Index (Y/Y % change)) Federal Reserve, Astra Insights INDUSTRIAL PRODUCTION: AUTO PARTS % 6.7% Industrial Production: Auto Parts 12 per. Mov. Avg. (Industrial Production: Auto Parts) Federal Reserve, Astra Insights SEMA INDUSTRY INDICATORS APR
4 AUTOMOTIVE New vehicle sales increased 2.5 percent in March from the prior month on a seasonally adjusted basis. This marks only the fourth monthly increase in the last 15 months. New vehicle sales increased 4.1 percent last month compared to March Hurricane-related replacement had supported sales in final months of 2017, but that is tailing off. Total light vehicle sales totaled million units in 2017, down from million units in Astra Insights expects new vehicle sales will decline another 1.6 percent in Gas prices remained roughly flat in March, up a penny from February Gas prices are up 27 cents from last March, roughly 11 percent higher than the year-ago period. We are beginning to move into the spring maintenance season when refineries switch over to more expensive blends. Gas prices should climb in the coming months as a result. We expect to see prices 5-8 cents higher over the next two months. Gas prices are anticipated to average just over $2.60 in 2018 and trend slightly lower in Travel on all roads and streets in the U.S. increased by 0.4 percent in January 2018, compared with January Travel for January 2018, the most recent month for which data are available, was estimated to be billion vehicle miles, up 0.93 billion vehicle miles from a year ago. This total includes 69.8 billion vehiclemiles on rural roads and billion vehicle-miles on urban roads and streets. MONTHLY NEW LIGHT VEHICLE SALES 2,050 1,550 1, Light Vehicle Sales - SA Thousands 12 per. Mov. Avg. (Light Vehicle Sales - SA Thousands) Bureau of Economic Analysis, Astra Insights GAS PRICES U.S. All Grades All Formulations Gas Price 12 per. Mov. Avg. (U.S. All Grades All Formulations Gas Price) U.S. Energy Information Administration, Astra Insights VEHICLE MILES TRAVELED 1,450 $2.71 3% 2% 1% -1% -2% -3% 1.1% Total Vehicle Miles Driven 12 MA (Y/Y % Change) U.S. Federal Highway Administration, Astra Insights SEMA INDUSTRY INDICATORS APR
5 INSIGHTS FROM SEMA VEHICLES IN OPERATION (VIO) DATA There are approximately 271 million light vehicles in operation in the United States today, of which over 122 million are passenger cars and 149 million are light trucks. Together, mid-range / traditional cars and pickup trucks represent almost half of the vehicles on the road. The specialty equipment market is a $41 billion dollar industry. Customers spend the most money on pickup upgrades, followed by mid-range / traditional and SUV upgrades. Mid-Range / Traditional Pickup CUV SUV Small Car Van Upscale Sports Car Alt Power 1% 7% 6% 11% 1 13% 2 % of Vehicles on Road Source: SEMA Member VIO, Powered by Experian, Data as of December 31, 2017 SPECIALTY EQUIPMENT MARKET SIZE BY VEHICLE SEGMENT Pickup Mid-Range / Traditional SUV CUV Upscale Small Car Sports Car Van Alt Power $4.10 $3.36 $2.85 $2.77 $1.44 $0.33 Source: 2016 SEMA Consumer Market Data $7.42 $6.47 USD Billions $ HIGHLIGHTS FROM THE SEMA INDUSTRY PERSPECTIVES REPORT CHANGE IN COMPANY SALES OVER PAST 12 MONTHS The specialtyequipment industry is growing. Most companies have benefited from increased sales over the past year and expect this trend to continue next year. EXPECTED CHANGE IN INDUSTRY-WIDE SALES OVER NEXT 12 MONTHS Most expect the industry as a whole to continue to grow. INCREASED STAYED SAME DECREASED MANUFACTURER 6 22% 13% DISTRIBUTOR 59% 31% 9% RETAILER 56% 31% 13% INCREASE STAY SAME DECREASE MANUFACTURER 63% 27% DISTRIBUTOR 59% 26% 8% RETAILER 58% 27% 6% TOP 3 ISSUES FACING INDUSTRY OVER NEXT 5 YEARS Retail and regulatory changes are key concerns for the future, as well as increasing vehicle complexity. TOP 3 ISSUES Increasing government, regulatory, or social pressure Change in retail landscape / pricing pressure Increasing vehicle complexity / vehicles becoming harder to modify WANT TO FIND OUT MORE? Download the SEMA Industry Perspectives Report at: SEMA INDUSTRY INDICATORS APR
6 APPENDIX U.S. ECONOMIC GROWTH: Gross Domestic Product, or GDP, is a measure of a country s total economic activity. It represents the value of all goods and services produced within a country. More simply, it s the sum of a country s consumption, government expenditures, investments, and net exports. This graph shows the percent change per quarter at a seasonally adjusted annualized rate. CONSUMER SENTIMENT: The Index of Consumer Sentiment comes from the University of Michigan s Survey of Consumers. The index captures consumers opinions on a variety of factors, such as how their current financial situation compares to a year ago, how they expect their financial situation to change and whether the next 12 months are a good time to buy a new vehicle. CONSUMER SPENDING: Personal consumption expenditures (PCE) is the primary measure of consumer spending on goods and services in the U.S. economy. The index is adjusted for inflation and seasonality. CIVILIAN UNEMPLOYMENT RATE: The unemployment rate is the number of unemployed individuals as a percent of the total labor force. The Labor force includes all individuals 16 years of age and older who reside in 1 of the 50 states or the District of Columbia. Unemployed individuals are individuals who have actively sought work within the past four weeks. TRADE-WEIGHTED U.S. DOLLAR INDEX: The trade-weighted U.S. dollar index provides a measure of the foreign exchange value of the U.S. dollar against the currencies of a broad group of major U.S. trading partners. It provides a gauge for how the U.S. dollar is performing against global currencies. A weaker dollar vis-à-vis other world currencies will make U.S. produced goods more attractive to foreign buyers. It can also mean a higher relative price for imported goods. INDUSTRIAL PRODUCTION - AUTO PARTS: Industrial production of auto parts is a measure of real output for all facilities located in the United States manufacturing auto parts and allied goods. Growth in the production index from month to month is an indicator of growth in the industry. TOTAL LIGHT VEHICLE SALES (THOUSANDS OF UNITS): Total U.S. cars and light trucks sold per month, including both domestic and foreign brands. CONTACT INFO sema.org Kyle Cheng kylec@sema.org AstraInsights.com Shawn DuBravac, PhD, CFA Shawn@AstraInsights.com AVERAGE U.S. GAS PRICE (PER GALLON): Weekly average U.S. retail gasoline prices per gallon. This includes all grades and formulations. VEHICLE MILES TRAVELED: The Federal Highway Administration s Traffic Volume Trends is a monthly report based on traffic count data. These data are collected at approximately 4,000 continuous traffic counting locations nationwide. Estimates are re-adjusted annually to match the vehicle miles of travel from the Highway Performance Monitoring System and are continually updated with additional data. Copyright 2018 SEMA and Astra Insights. All Rights Reserved. SEMA INDUSTRY INDICATORS APR
SEMA INDUSTRY INDICATORS
SEMA INDUSTRY INDICATORS FEB 2018 The overall economy clocked growth of 2.6 percent in the final quarter of 2017. While this is below growth realized in the prior two quarters of 2017, the year closed
More informationSEMA INDUSTRY INDICATORS
SEMA INDUSTRY INDICATORS SEPTEMBER 2018 The U.S. economy is looking good as we head into September. August brought another solid month of job gains - adding 201,000 new jobs during the month. The economy
More informationSEMA INDUSTRY INDICATORS
SEMA INDUSTRY INDICATORS JULY 2018 The first half of 2018 is now in the books and the economy has shown resilience in the face of a myriad of concerns. These fears have included low overall economic growth
More informationSEMA INDUSTRY INDICATORS
SEMA INDUSTRY INDICATORS Economic data strengthened over the last month. The employment report led the way, but across the board incoming economic data was firm, setting up what could be an extremely strong
More informationU.S. Economic Update and Outlook. Laurel Graefe, REIN Director Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta October 2, 2013
1 U.S. Economic Update and Outlook Laurel Graefe, REIN Director Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta October 2, 213 Following the deepest recession since the 193s, the economic recovery is well under way, though
More informationWorld trade rises 5.3% in Q1 2010
June 2010 TABLE OF CONTENTS World trade rises 5.3% in Q1 2010 1 Highlights 2 The Canadian economy 2 The U.S. economy 3 Oil prices tumble after US jobs report 4 Flight to quality hits Canadian dollar 4
More informationCOMPTROLLER LEMBO REPORTS EARLY INDICATIONS THAT STATE COULD END FISCAL YEAR 2019 IN SURPLUS
COMPTROLLER LEMBO REPORTS EARLY INDICATIONS THAT STATE COULD END FISCAL YEAR 2019 IN SURPLUS Comptroller Kevin Lembo today said that there are reasons for cautious optimism that the state could end Fiscal
More informationThe U.S. Economic Outlook
The U.S. Economic Outlook November, Economic Club of Sheboygan George A. Kahn Vice President and Economist Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City Outlook themes Growth has rebounded following a soft first
More informationBaseline U.S. Economic Outlook, Summary Table*
March 19 Gus Faucher Stuart Hoffman William Adams Kurt Rankin Abbey Omodunbi Chief Economist Senior Economic Advisor Senior Economist Economist Economist Executive Summary Weak February Job Growth, and
More informationW HIGHLIGHTS - EXECUTIVE SUMMARY
FURNITURE INSIGHTS Smith Leonard PLLC s Industry Newsletter June 2018 W HIGHLIGHTS - EXECUTIVE SUMMARY e had heard at the High Point Market that business seemed to have picked up a bit. We also heard that
More informationSUBJECT: PRELIMINARY NOVEMBER 2011 ECONOMIC FORECAST
October 26, 2011 STATE OF WASHINGTON ECONOMIC AND REVENUE FORECAST COUNCIL - 34-1560 TO: FROM: Governor s Council of Economic Advisors Arun Raha, Executive Director Economic and Revenue Forecast Council
More informationMichigan Economic Update
Michigan Economic Update Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago Detroit Branch October 30, 2015 Paul Traub Senior Business Economist The Midwest Economy declined to -0.15 in September while Michigan s contribution
More informationMarket Month: July 2017
Market Month: July 2017 The Markets (as of market close July 31, 2017) The last day of July saw each of the indexes listed here post gains over their June closing values. Despite slumping tech stocks at
More informationSmith Leonard PLLC Kenneth D. Smith, CPA Mark S. Laferriere, CPA
FURNITURE INSIGHTS Smith Leonard PLLC s Industry Newsletter August 2018 N HIGHLIGHTS - EXECUTIVE SUMMARY ew orders in June 2018 were up 5% over June 2017, according to our recent survey of residential
More informationECONOMIC & REVENUE UPDATE
January 11, 2018 Summary summary The U.S. labor market gained 148,000 net new jobs in December. U.S. housing starts in November 2017 were 12.9% above their year-ago level. Consumer confidence declined
More informationU.S. Automotive Outlook
2004 FTA Revenue Estimation and Tax Research Conference September 19-22, 2004 Burlington, VT U.S. Automotive Outlook David P. Teolis Senior Economist North America Global Market & Industry Analysis Presentation
More informationGus Faucher Stuart Hoffman William Adams Kurt Rankin Chief Economist Senior Economic Advisor Senior Economist Economist
August 18 Gus Faucher Stuart Hoffman William Adams Kurt Rankin Chief Economist Senior Economic Advisor Senior Economist Economist Executive Summary Excellent Second Quarter Growth as Labor Market Continues
More information- US LEI & CEI - Yardeni Research, Inc.
- US LEI & CEI - 11 1 Figure. LEADING & COINCIDENT ECONOMIC INDICATORS (=, ratio scale) 11 1 Leading Economic Indicators recovering rapidly. Coincident Economic Indicators recovering slowly. 9 9 9 9 7
More information2014: Started with a Deep Hole, Ending with a Whimper Growth Received an Upgrade But Some Payback is in the Cards
2014: Started with a Deep Hole, Ending with a Whimper The year 2014 will be remembered for its roller-coaster pattern of economic growth. The unusually cold winter weather helped put growth in deep negative
More informationQuarterly Market Review: July-September 2018 The Markets (as of market close September 28, 2018)
Quarterly Market Review: July-September 2018 The Markets (as of market close September 28, 2018) The third quarter proved to be very strong for domestic stocks. July saw the major benchmark indexes listed
More informationKEY ECONOMIC AND MARKET INDICATORS
KEY ECONOMIC INDICATORS Latest Report Current Report Previous Report 2017 ECONOMIC GROWTH GDP Q4 2.9% 2.5% 2.3% EMPLOYMENT Non-farm Payrolls (000s) Mar 103 326 2,173 Private Payrolls (000s) Mar 102 320
More informationO HIGHLIGHTS - EXECUTIVE SUMMARY
FURNITURE INSIGHTS Smith Leonard PLLC s Industry Newsletter February 2018 O HIGHLIGHTS - EXECUTIVE SUMMARY ur latest survey of residential furniture manufacturers and distributors revealed some disappointing
More informationWeb Slides.
Economic Conditions NC Local Government Budget Association July 11, 2013 William W. (Woody) Hall, Jr. Professor of Economics and Senior Economist H. David and Diane Swain Center for Business and Economic
More information2015: FINALLY, A STRONG YEAR
2015: FINALLY, A STRONG YEAR A Cushman & Wakefield Research Publication U.S. GDP GROWTH IS ACCELERATING 4% 3.5% Percent Change Annual Rate 2% 0% -2% -4% -5.4% -0.5% 1.3% 3.9% 1.7% 3.9% 2.7% 2.5% -1.5%
More informationGus Faucher Stuart Hoffman William Adams Kurt Rankin Mekael Teshome Chief Economist Senior Economic Advisor Senior Economist Economist Economist
September 217 Gus Faucher Stuart Hoffman William Adams Kurt Rankin Mekael Teshome Chief Economist Senior Economic Advisor Senior Economist Economist Economist Executive Summary Job Growth Slows in August,
More informationThe President s Report to the Board of Directors
The President s Report to the Board of Directors April 4, 214 Current Economic Developments - April 4, 214 Data released since your last Directors' meeting show the economy was a bit stronger in the fourth
More informationMetro Milwaukee Economic Trends August 2018
Metro Milwaukee Economic Trends August 2018 Prepared by: Economic Research Division October 5, 2018 Metropolitan Milwaukee Association of Commerce www.mmac.org www.mmac.org August Economic Trends Metro
More informationLETTER. economic. The price of oil and prices at the pump: why the difference? NOVEMBER bdc.ca
economic LETTER NOVEMBER 211 The price of oil and prices at the pump: why the difference? Since the end of April the price of crude oil based on the West Texas Intermediate (WTI) benchmark has dropped
More informationGrowth Picks Up as Expected, No Thanks to Housing
Q1-2008 Q3-2008 Q1-2009 Q3-2009 Q1-2010 Q3-2010 Q1-2011 Q3-2011 Q1-2012 Q3-2012 Q1-2013 Q3-2013 Q1-2014 Q3-2014 Q1-2015 Q3-2015 Q1-2016 Q3-2016 Q1-2017 Q3-2017 Q1-2018 Personal Saving Rate (SA) Personal
More informationMarket Month: August 2017
Market Month: August 2017 The Markets (as of market close August 31, 2017) Equities in August saw many peaks and valleys throughout the month, finally rallying at the end of the month. Strong second-quarter
More informationBoost from Fiscal Policy to Fade in 2019
Real PCE: Motor Vehicles & Parts (SAAR, 29$, Annualized % Change) Regular Grade, Avg Dollars per Gallon Economic Developments May 28 Boost from Fiscal Policy to Fade in 29 First quarter economic growth
More informationQuarterly Market Review: April - June 2018 The Markets (as of market close June 30, 2018)
Quarterly Market Review: April - June 2018 The Markets (as of market close June 30, 2018) The second quarter of the year can be called a lot of things, but boring isn't one of them. The potential for a
More informationEditor: Thomas Nilsson. The Week Ahead Key Events Jul, 2017
Editor: Thomas Nilsson The Week Ahead Key Events 10 16 Jul, 2017 European Sovereign Rating Reviews Recent rating reviews Upcoming rating reviews Source: Bloomberg Monday 10, 08.00 NOR: CPI (Jun) SEB Cons.
More informationMonthly Economic Indicators And Charts
Monthly Economic Indicators And Charts June Richard F. Moody- Chief Economist Steve Pfitzer Investor Relations Information contained herein is based on data obtained from recognized sources believed to
More informationExecutive Cotton Update U.S. Macroeconomic Indicators & the Cotton Supply Chain
Executive Cotton Update U.S. Macroeconomic Indicators & the Cotton Supply Chain January 2018 www.cottoninc.com Macroeconomic Overview: Over the past couple years, economic growth slowed in the fourth and
More informationGus Faucher Stuart Hoffman William Adams Kurt Rankin Mekael Teshome Chief Economist Senior Economic Advisor Senior Economist Economist Economist
July 217 Gus Faucher Stuart Hoffman William Adams Kurt Rankin Mekael Teshome Chief Economist Senior Economic Advisor Senior Economist Economist Economist Executive Summary Job Growth Picked Back Up Again
More informationBaseline U.S. Economic Outlook, Summary Table*
January 19 Gus Faucher Stuart Hoffman William Adams Kurt Rankin Abbey Omodunbi Chief Economist Senior Economic Advisor Senior Economist Economist Economist Executive Summary Great December Jobs Report;
More informationGlobal and U.S. Automotive Outlook
Global and U.S. Automotive Outlook 2018-2019 Presented to the 25 th Annual Automotive Outlook Symposium Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago June 1, 2018 Haig Stoddard Senior Industry Analyst Wards Intelligence
More informationEconomic Highlights. ISM Purchasing Managers Index 1. Sixth District Payroll Employment by Industry 2. Contributions to Real GDP Growth 3
December 1, 2010 Economic Highlights Manufacturing ISM Purchasing Managers Index 1 Employment Sixth District Payroll Employment by Industry 2 Economic Activity Contributions to Real GDP Growth 3 Prices
More informationBaseline U.S. Economic Outlook, Summary Table*
December 18 Gus Faucher Stuart Hoffman William Adams Kurt Rankin Abbey Omodunbi Chief Economist Senior Economic Advisor Senior Economist Economist Economist Executive Summary Continued Solid Job Growth;
More informationPRESIDENT TRUMP The First 100 Days and the U.S. Economy
PRESIDENT TRUMP The First 100 Days and the U.S. Economy MBAFCPA.COM June 2017 INTRODUCTION During his campaign and after the election President Trump has mentioned the importance of what he would accomplish
More informationEditor: Felix Ewert. The Week Ahead Key Events Mar 2018
Editor: Felix Ewert The Week Ahead Key Events 12 18 Mar 2018 Monday 12, 08.00 SWE: Unemployment, registered (Feb) SEB Cons. Prev. Open 3.9 --- 4.0 Open, seas. adj. 3.8 --- 3.8 Total seas. adj. 7.1 ---
More informationGus Faucher Stuart Hoffman William Adams Kurt Rankin Chief Economist Senior Economic Advisor Senior Economist Economist
May 218 Gus Faucher Stuart Hoffman William Adams Kurt Rankin Chief Economist Senior Economic Advisor Senior Economist Economist Executive Summary Slower but Still Solid Economic Growth in the First Quarter;
More informationNovember 2014 Solid October Jobs Report Boosts Workers Incomes real Baseline U.S. Economic Outlook, Summary Table*
November 21 Executive Summary Solid October Jobs Report Boosts Workers Incomes October payroll jobs growth was a "soft" 21, jobs. Private-sector employment was up by 2, jobs, while state and local government
More informationNonfarm Payroll Employment
PRESIDENT'S REPORT TO THE BOARD OF DIRECTORS, FEDERAL RESERVE BANK OF BOSTON Current Economic Developments - June 10, 2004 Data released since your last Directors' meeting show the economy continues to
More informationA More Dovish Fed Helps Improve Economic and Housing Market Conditions
Light Vehicle Retail Sales [Imported+Domestic] (SAAR, Mil. Units) Economic Developments February 2018 A More Dovish Fed Helps Improve Economic and Housing Market Conditions Over the full year of 2019 we
More informationModest Economic Growth and Falling GDP Gap
Modest Economic Growth and Falling GDP Gap -. -. U.S. Economic Output (Real GDP - Quarterly Growth Rate).................................... : : : : : : : : : : -. -. -. -. -. -. -. -. -. -. -. -. -. -.
More informationNevada Economy More Firmly in Recovery than Previously Realized
A monthly report produced for Commerce Real Estate Solutions by Stephen P. A. Brown, PhD, Center for Business & Economic Research University of Nevada, Las Vegas Issue 14 February 2012 Nevada Economy More
More informationBaseline U.S. Economic Outlook, Summary Table*
October 2014 Solid U.S. Economic Data Belie Market Turmoil Executive Summary September payroll job growth was above consensus with 248,000 jobs added over the month. September private-sector employment
More informationEconomic Growth Expected to Slow and Housing to Stabilize in 2019
Consumer Confidence Expectations in the Next Six Months (%) Economic Developments December 218 Economic Growth Expected to Slow and Housing to Stabilize in 219 The U.S. economy is expected to grow 2.6
More informationNortheast Minnesota Economic and Business Conditions Report First Quarter 2014
Northeast Minnesota Economic and Business Conditions Report First Quarter TABLE OF CONTENTS Executive Summary...1 Northeast Minnesota Leading Economic Indicators Index...2 Northeast Minnesota Business
More informationGus Faucher Stuart Hoffman William Adams Kurt Rankin Mekael Teshome Chief Economist Senior Economic Advisor Senior Economist Economist Economist
May 217 Gus Faucher Stuart Hoffman William Adams Kurt Rankin Mekael Teshome Chief Economist Senior Economic Advisor Senior Economist Economist Economist Executive Summary With Job Market in Good Shape,
More informationMarket Month: April 2017
Market Month: April 2017 The Markets (as of market close April 28, 2017) Equities continued their positive trend in April, spurred by favorable corporate earnings reports, proposed federal tax cuts, and
More informationQuarterly Market Review: January - March 2018 The Markets (as of market close March 29, 2018)
Quarterly Market Review: January - March 2018 The Markets (as of market close March 29, 2018) The first quarter of 2018 began as the fourth quarter of 2017 ended: with strong market gains. The Nasdaq led
More informationMarket Month: August 2018 The Markets (as of market close July 31, 2018)
Market Month: August 2018 The Markets (as of market close July 31, 2018) Favorable economic indicators and encouraging corporate earnings reports helped propel stocks forward in July. Market growth has
More informationIt s Déjà Vu All Over (and Over) Again
Mar-16 Apr-16 May-16 Jun-16 Jul-16 Aug-16 Sep-16 Oct-16 Nov-16 Dec-16 Jan-17 Feb-17 Mar-17 Personal Consumption Expenditures (SAAR, Chn.2009$, M-o-M % Change) Q3:2009 Q4:2009 Q1:2010 Q2:2010 Q3:2010 Q4:2010
More informationMarket Month: January 2018
Market Month: January 2018 The Markets (as of market close January 31, 2018) Equities pulled back off of their record-setting gains at the end of January, but not enough to forestall a month of significant
More informationDemystifying Economic Indicators
Demystifying Economic Indicators Jonathan Jackson, CFA Advisor, Catalyst Strategic Solutions 1 Agenda: Discuss the most influential economic indicators. Look at why these economic indicators can move markets
More informationLETTER. economic COULD INTEREST RATES HEAD UP IN 2015? JANUARY Canada. United States. Interest rates. Oil price. Canadian dollar.
economic LETTER JANUARY 215 COULD INTEREST RATES HEAD UP IN 215? For six years now, that is, since the financial crisis that shook the world in 28, Canadian interest rates have stayed low. The key interest
More informationNATIONAL ECONOMIC OUTLOOK
May 218 NATIONAL ECONOMIC OUTLOOK Gus Faucher Stuart Hoffman William Adams Kurt Rankin Chief Economist Senior Economic Advisor Senior Economist Economist THE PNC FINANCIAL SERVICES GROUP The Tower at PNC
More informationSmith Leonard PLLC Kenneth D. Smith, CPA Mark S. Laferriere, CPA
FURNITURE INSIGHTS Smith Leonard PLLC s Industry Newsletter April 2018 HIGHLIGHTS - EXECUTIVE SUMMARY N ew orders in February 2018 were 5% higher than orders in February 2017, according to our latest survey
More informationIn this report we discuss three important areas of the economy that have received a great deal of attention recently, namely:
March 26, 218 Executive Summary George Mokrzan, PH.D., Director of Economics In this report we discuss three important areas of the economy that have received a great deal of attention recently, namely:
More informationSmith Leonard PLLC Kenneth D. Smith, CPA Mark S. Laferriere, CPA
Smith Leonard PLLC s Industry Newsletter January 2018 HIGHLIGHTS - EXECUTIVE SUMMARY A ccording to our latest survey of residential furniture manufacturers and distributors, new orders in November 2017
More informationDistrict Economic. Structurally Deficient Bridges, 2001 (Percent)
District Economic BY ROBERT LACY Apprehension about terrorism and political developments regarding Iraq cast a pall over the Fifth District economy in the last three months of. Many businesses continued
More informationOutlook and Market Review Fourth Quarter 2013
Outlook and Market Review Fourth Quarter 2013 Economic growth remains sluggish and inflation is not on the radar screen. The Bureau of Economic Analysis revised fourth quarter GDP growth to a 2.4% rate
More informationModerating Growth Expected in the Second Half; Housing Supply Still Lagging
Corporate Profits with IVA and CCAdj (SAAR, $, Year-over-Year % Change) Nominal Broad Trade-Weighted Exchange Value of the US$ Economic Developments July 2017 Moderating Growth Expected in the Second Half;
More informationECONOMIC AND FINANCIAL HIGHLIGHTS
ECONOMIC AND FINANCIAL HIGHLIGHTS FEDERAL RESERVE BALANCE SHEET Assets and Liabilities 2-3 REAL ESTATE Construction Spending 4 CoreLogic Home Price Index 5 Mortgage Rates and Applications 6-7 CONSUMER
More informationLETTER. economic. China: Towards a floating exchange rate regime? MAY bdc.ca
economic LETTER MAY 212 China: Towards a floating exchange rate regime? For many years now, the West has been reproaching China for keeping the yuan below its balanced value, that is, the value that would
More informationOutlook for the Auto Industry. Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago Annual Automotive Outlook Symposium June 4, 2004
Outlook for the Auto Industry Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago Annual Automotive Outlook Symposium June 4, 2004 2004 U.S. Outlook: Risk and Opportunities Theme GDP Industry CPI Key Driver Oil Interest Rates
More informationInterest Rate Forecast
Interest Rate Forecast Economics January Highlights Global growth firms Waiting for Trumponomics Bank of Canada on hold Recent growth momentum in the global economy continued in December and looks to extend
More informationValentyn Povroznyuk, Edilberto L. Segura
National real GDP grew by 2.3% quarter-over-quarter (qoq) in Q2 2015. Average real GDP growth for Q4 2011-Q1 2015 was revised downwards by 0.2% from the previously published 2.2%. US industrial output
More informationThe real change in private inventories added 0.22 percentage points to the second quarter GDP growth, after subtracting 0.65% in the first quarter.
QIRGRETA Monthly Macroeconomic Commentary United States The U.S. economy bounced back in the second quarter of 2007, growing at the fastest pace in more than a year. According the final estimates released
More informationMarket/Index 2016 Close Prior Month As of August 31 Month Change YTD Change DJIA % 11.06%
MARKET MONTH: AUGUST 2017 The Markets (as of market close August 31, 2017) Equities in August saw many peaks and valleys throughout the month, finally rallying at the end of the month. Strong second-quarter
More informationSmith Leonard PLLC Kenneth D. Smith, CPA Mark S. Laferriere, CPA
FURNITURE INSIGHTS Smith Leonard PLLC s Industry Newsletter May 2018 HIGHLIGHTS - EXECUTIVE SUMMARY A fter hearing about how sluggish business was in the first quarter, our survey of residential furniture
More informationSoutheast Minnesota Economic and Business Conditions Report: First Quarter 2014
St. Cloud State University therepository at St. Cloud State Southeast Minnesota Economic and Business Conditions Report Minnesota Regional Economic and Business Conditions Report 5-22- Southeast Minnesota
More informationSmith Leonard PLLC Kenneth D. Smith, CPA Mark S. Laferriere, CPA
FURNITURE INSIGHTS Smith Leonard PLLC s Industry Newsletter October 2018 HIGHLIGHTS - EXECUTIVE SUMMARY A ccording to our latest survey of residential furniture manufacturers and distributors, new orders
More informationTwin Cities Area Economic and Business Conditions Report Fourth Quarter 2014
Twin Cities Area Economic and Business Conditions Report Fourth Quarter TABLE OF CONTENTS Executive Summary...1 Twin Cities Leading Economic Indicators Index...2 Twin Cities Business Filings...4 Twin Cities
More informationQuarterly Economic Monitor
Overview of Quarterly Economic Monitor December 214 Queenstown s economy boomed during 214, with ' provisional estimate of GDP showing that the Queenstown-Lakes District economy grew by 4.5% over the year
More informationAustria s economy will grow by 2¾% in 2017
Gerhard Fenz, Friedrich Fritzer, Martin Schneider 1 In the first half of 217, Austria s economy gathered further momentum. With growth rates by.8% in both the first and the second quarters, Austria recorded
More informationfile:///c:/users/cathy/appdata/local/microsoft/windows/temporary Int...
1 of 5 9/25/17, 8:57 AM A Publication of the National Association of Manufacturers September 25, 2017 As expected, the Federal Reserve opted to not raise short-term interest rates at its September 19 20
More informationMetropolitan Area Economic and Business Conditions Report First Quarter 2014
Metropolitan Area Economic and Business Conditions Report First Quarter TABLE OF CONTENTS Executive Summary...1 Twin Cities Leading Economic Indicators Index...2 Twin Cities Business Filings...4 Twin Cities
More informationFlorida: An Economic Overview
Florida: An Economic Overview December 26, 2018 Presented by: The Florida Legislature Office of Economic and Demographic Research 850.487.1402 http://edr.state.fl.us Shifting in Key Economic Variables
More informationThe economic recovery remains intact. Absent
Business-Cycle Conditions, April 213 AMERICAN INST ITUTE for ECONOMIC RESEARCH www.aier.org April 15, 213 Labor Market Recovers Unevenly High-skilled jobs account for most employment growth in a steady
More informationEconomic Overview Q Quarterly data is as of March 31, Monthly data as of March 31, 2018
Economic Overview Q1 2018 Quarterly data is as of March 31, 2018 1 Monthly data as of March 31, 2018 Gross Domestic Product 2 Economic Overview GDP IS IMPROVING Real GDP Components and Percentage Net Exports
More informationThe real change in private inventories added 0.15 percentage points to the second quarter GDP growth, after subtracting 0.65% in the first quarter.
QIRGRETA Monthly Macroeconomic Commentary United States The U.S. economy rebounded in the second quarter of 2007, growing at an annual rate of 3.4% Q/Q (+1.8% Y/Y), according to the GDP advance estimates
More informationGauging Current Conditions: The Economic Outlook and Its Impact on Workers Compensation
Gauging Current Conditions: The Economic Outlook and Its Impact on Workers Compensation The exhibits below are updated quarterly to reflect the current economic outlook for factors that typically impact
More informationAustria s economy set to grow by close to 3% in 2018
Austria s economy set to grow by close to 3% in 218 Gerhard Fenz, Friedrich Fritzer, Fabio Rumler, Martin Schneider 1 Economic growth in Austria peaked at the end of 217. The first half of 218 saw a gradual
More informationSmith Leonard PLLC Kenneth D. Smith, CPA Mark S. Laferriere, CPA
FURNITURE INSIGHTS Smith Leonard PLLC s Industry Newsletter September 2018 N HIGHLIGHTS - EXECUTIVE SUMMARY ew orders in July 2018 were up 5% over July 2017, according to our recent survey of residential
More informationEconomic and Financial Markets Monthly Review & Outlook Detailed Report. June 2014
Economic and Financial Markets Monthly Review & Outlook Detailed Report June 1 Overview of the Economy In the U.S., the Federal Reserve s Beige Book report on the economy through late May indicated that
More informationThe Outlook for the U.S. Economy March Summary View. The Current State of the Economy
The Outlook for the U.S. Economy March 2010 Summary View The Current State of the Economy 8% 6% Quarterly Change (SAAR) Chart 1. The Economic Outlook History Forecast The December 2007-2009 recession is
More informationGus Faucher Stuart Hoffman William Adams Kurt Rankin Chief Economist Senior Economic Advisor Senior Economist Economist
March 218 Gus Faucher Stuart Hoffman William Adams Kurt Rankin Chief Economist Senior Economic Advisor Senior Economist Economist Executive Summary Job Growth Picks Up in 218, Inflation Pressures Are Building
More informationDiversifying growth is beneficial
Craig Holke Investment Strategy Analyst WEEKLY GUIDANCE ON ECONOMIC AND GEOPOLITICAL EVENTS December 4, 2018 Resilient U.S. Economy Continues Its Solid Growth Key takeaways» The U.S. economy continues
More informationConsolidated Investment Report
Consolidated Investment Report September 2015 As Palm Beach County s Chief Financial Officer, the Clerk & Comptroller is charged with safeguarding and investing all County funds. The Clerk s management
More informationJan-Mar nd Preliminary GDP Estimate
Japan's Economy 8 June 2016 (No. of pages: 5) Japanese report: 08 Jun 2016 Jan-Mar 2016 2 nd Preliminary GDP Estimate Real GDP growth rate revised upwards slightly from 1 st preliminary; results in accordance
More informationThe Economic Outlook: Downshift
The Economic Outlook: Downshift Karen Dynan Harvard University and Peterson Institute for International Economics Spring 2019 Global Economic Prospects Meeting Washington, DC April 2, 2019 The global outlook:
More informationMBA Forecast Commentary Joel Kan
MBA Forecast Commentary Joel Kan Economy & Labor Markets Strong Enough, First Rate Hike Expected in December MBA Economic and Mortgage Finance Commentary: November 2015 This month s outlook largely mirrors
More informationMetro Milwaukee Economic Trends October, 2014
Metro Milwaukee Economic Trends October, 2014 Prepared by: Economic Research Division December 3, 2014 Metropolitan Milwaukee Association of Commerce www.mmac.org www.mmac.org October Economic Trends Metro
More informationThe Changing Nature of Las Vegas Tourism
A monthly report produced for Commerce Real Estate Solutions by Stephen P. A. Brown, PhD, Center for Business & Economic Research University of Nevada, Las Vegas Issue 16 April 2012 The Changing Nature
More informationOutlook and Market Review First Quarter 2016
Outlook and Market Review First Quarter 2016 The U.S. economy grew at a 0.8% annual rate in the first quarter according to thesecond estimate of the Bureau of Economic Analysis. U.S. economic growth in
More informationLETTER. economic. Canada and the global financial crisis SEPTEMBER bdc.ca
economic LETTER SEPTEMBER Canada and the global financial crisis In the wake of the financial crisis that shook the world in and and triggered a serious global recession, the G-2 countries put forward
More information