Editor: Thomas Nilsson. The Week Ahead Key Events Jul, 2017

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1 Editor: Thomas Nilsson The Week Ahead Key Events Jul, 2017

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3 European Sovereign Rating Reviews Recent rating reviews Upcoming rating reviews Source: Bloomberg

4 Monday 10, NOR: CPI (Jun) SEB Cons. Norges Bank Prev. Headline 0.0/ / /2.1 CPI-ATE 0.2/ / /1.6 CPI-ATE has dropped considerably from the peak in July last year and strong comparison months from last summer imply that the inflation rate will continue lower in June and July. However, we think that most likely temporarily low prices on air fares and to some extent food will normalize in June and July, offsetting some of the downward pressure. Our forecast for June is therefore slightly above Norges Bank s estimate. Inflation pressure continues to be subdued but the combination of renewed exchange rate weakness and a turn in the base effects after the summer imply the inflation rate is close to a trough. We expect CPI-ATE to accelerate slightly in the second half of this year, largely in line with Norge Bank s forecast.

5 Monday 10, SWE: Unemployment, registered (Jun) % mom/yoy SEB Cons. Prev. Open Open, seas. adj Total seas. adj Registered unemployment (incl. labour market measures) has moved sideways since the middle of last year and is even showing some signs of increasing. Unemployment according to the more important Labour Force Survey (LFS) declined markedly in April and a certain divergence between the measures seem reasonable as a larger part of the unemployed are likely to show up at the unemployment offices. Monthly data imply that registered unemployment may decline slightly in June.

6 Monday 10, DEN: CPI (Jun) % mom/yoy SEB Cons. Prev. CPI -0.1/ / /0.8 Headline inflation is heading lower again driven by base effects and new declines from energy prices. Core inflation declined markedly throughout last year, but has recovered over the last 3 months. Parts of the upturn in April and May is judged to be driven by temporary high prices on travels. Food inflation is picking up from a low level and the upward trend is likely to continue in the second half of this year. Wage inflation has accelerated slightly in the last 2-3 years but declined somewhat in Q1 this year. The wage rate is still far below the historical average. We predict core inflation will recover, partly due to slightly higher international price pressures. Downside risks dominate.

7 Tuesday 11, US: NFIB Small business optimism (Jun) SEB Cons. Prev. Advance Small business optimism was unchanged in May following three consecutive months of weakening. Optimism surged following Trump s election victory and promises of tax cuts and deregulation. The index is still at a very high level historically. Hiring intensions rebounded to the recent high in January and is at the highest level since 2006, suggesting that the rate of unemployment should fall further. The share of firms saying that vacant positions are hard to fill increased to 34%, the highest share since November Compensation plans also rose, providing further support to our assessment that wage growth is set to accelerate. The ISM manufacturing index rose sharply in June. We expect that the NFIB rose slightly compared to May.

8 Wednesday 12, SWE: Prospera inflation expectations (Jul) Money market player SEB Prev. 1y y y Money market inflation expectations have stabilized since the beginning of 2017 at or slightly below the inflation target. BEI inflation rates have continued to drop slightly on the 5y horizon and this is a downside risk for the 5y Prospera inflation expectations in June (May was 1.96%). Higher than expected inflation in April and May should exert some upward pressure and we predict expectations to be stable in June.

9 Wednesday 12, UK: Average weekly earnings (May) % SEB Cons Prev. Average weekly earnings 3M/YoY Weekly earnings (ex bonuses, 3M/YoY) Weekly earnings growth (ex bonuses) have been lower than expected since Dec last year with annual growth falling to 1.7% 3m y/y in April. In fact this was the weakest annual growth rate since wage growth started to accelerate in Despite low unemployment, which historically has supported stronger wage growth, wages continue to rise very modestly and there are no signs of an acceleration. The BOE has suggested that one reason for weak wage growth could be subdued productivity growth. It could also be related to a shift in the composition of employment towards jobs with lower pay.

10 Wednesday 12, UK: Unemployment/Employment (May) ILO Unempl. rate Employment change (3m/3m) Cons 4.6% 123k Prev. 4.6% 109k Unemployment: Employment growth has recovered slightly in recent months and has been strong enough to lower the unemployment rate to 4.6%, which is the lowest since Job creation. Employment growth picked up again in March after being quite weak since the end of last year. The employment component according to the composite PMI improved in May, suggesting strong employment growth. However, it was in particular employment within the manufacturing sector which employs much fewer people than the services sector, where demand appears to be more stable. This could explain why correlation with actual employment growth has been weak. The consensus forecast of around 123k new jobs in May seems balanced.

11 Wednesday 12, EMU: Industrial production (May) SEB Cons. Prev. SA mom WDA yoy The EZ manufacturing PMI has continued to improve and reached a 6-year high in June. Manufacturing order books are at levels indicating a faster increase in industrial production ahead. Given the high confidence levels of industry in major European regions (see lower rhs chart) recently-weak industrial production can be expected to improve in the coming months. On Friday, strong May IP data were published by Germany (+1.2% m/m), France (+1.9% m/m) and Spain (+1.2% m/m).

12 Wednesday 12, US: Fed Beige Book The previous Beige Book (released May 31, covering the period from early April through late May) indicated that most of the 12 Federal Reserve Districts saw activity continuing to expand at a modest or moderate pace. However, the May report was a bit more tempered compared to the April report as activity in Boston and Chicago slowed a bit and flattened out in New York. This is worth keeping an eye on. Labour markets continued to tighten. Most Districts noted labour shortages across a broadening range of occupations. Wage growth continued to be modest or moderate. Prices were rising modestly, indicating little change from the prior report. While we expect the Fed to maintain the federal funds rate in a target range of per cent during the July policy meeting uncertainty about the timing of the next rate hike has increased. Although it is obvious that the Fed is not worried about economic activity, weaker than expected inflation has caused some concerns. This means that arguably the most interesting aspect of the current edition of the Beige Book will be the information on prices and wages. Any indications of rising price pressures would increase the probability of a September hike. Accelerating wage growth would also support a hike since it is expected to feed through to inflation. Indications of intensifying labour shortages also strengthen the case for a September hike since a continuing tightening of the labour market could provide the Fed with an argument to look past the recent weakness in inflation.

13 Thursday 13, SWE: CPI (Jun) % mom/yoy SEB Cons. Riksbank Prev. Headline -0.1/ / /1.7 CPIF -0.1/ / /1.9 CPIF ex. energy The inflation rate is expected to fall back slightly in June driven by lower energy prices, but CPIF ex energy is predicted to edge higher due to higher prices on travels and food. Near term risks are skewed to the upside and our CPIF forecast later this summer is slightly above the Riksbank s. Despite waning upward pressure from energy, a weaker exchange rate and higher food prices will exert upward pressure on the inflation rate in the second half of this year, keeping CPIF close to the Riksbank s target. In July tax hikes on electricity and electrical products will add slightly more than 0.1%-point to CPI. The pass-through to CPI from the tax on electrical products is uncertain. In its July Monetary Policy Report the Riksbank lifted the near term inflation forecast, while the outlook for CPIF at the end of this year and the beginning of next was lowered. Our CPIF forecast is close to the Riksbank s until the 3 rd quarter next year.

14 Friday 14, EMU: Trade balance (May) SEB Cons. Prev. SA WDA The trade balance has had a volatile year so far but the seasonally adjusted trend is slightly falling from the peak a year ago. Imports will edge up as demand rises in the region. Exports will at the same time benefit from the surge of the business cycle, but on the margin the trade balance is expected to fall slightly and fluctuate around EUR 20bn/month in the coming months. A last-minute indication for the EZ aggregate will be provided on Monday (July 10) by the German trade & current account balance data.

15 Friday 14, US: CPI (Jun) % mom/yoy SEB Cons. Prev. Headline 0.1/ / /1.9 Core 0.3/ / /1.7 Headline inflation has turned around and is expected to continue lower in June driven by lower energy prices. Core inflation over the last 3 months has been the lowest since Although we think that underlying inflation pressures are subdued we expect a rebound to the low readings. Further ahead a tighter labour market will exert upward pressure on wages and we predict core inflation to rise next year. There are some signs that rents inflation, which has been the main driver for core inflation over the last 3-4 years could be easing. Risks are tilted towards a more gradual upturn in inflation.

16 Friday 14, US: Retail sales (Jun) SEB Cons. Prev. Advance Less auto Ex auto & gas Retail control group Headline retail sales declined by 0.3% m/m in May. This was weaker than expected and driven by a fall in gasoline station sales and continuing weakness in auto sales. Control group sales, used to calculate GDP, also performed worse than expected and were unchanged in May. However, the May weakness was more than outweighed by upward revisions to March and April sales. Weak vehicle sales continue to weigh on headline and the number of units sold fell slightly in June compared to May. Sales to rental agencies, businesses and government decreased while sales to consumers were flat. Gasoline prices fell in June and will weigh on station sales. Our forecast is that headline retail sales rose by 0.2% and that control group sales rose by 0.4% in June.

17 Friday 14, US: Industrial production, capacity util. (Jun) % mom SEB Cons. Prev. Industrial prod Capacity util Manuf. prod Industrial production failed to live up to expectations in May and was unchanged compared to April. This followed a large rise in April. Mining posted another large monthly increase and utility output continued to climb. Manufacturing production fell by 0.4% m/m. However, this also followed a strong 1.2% gain in April. The fall in May was mainly driven by decreased production of motor vehicles and parts. The ISM production sub-index rose sharply in June to This is still slightly below the recent peak in February but at a historically high level, suggesting that manufacturing output will rebound. Capacity utilization edged down to 76.6%. However, utilization increased for the three preceding months and is trending toward the 80%-level at which investments usually take off. Our forecast is that industrial and manufacturing production increased by 0.4% m/m and 0.2% m/m, respectively, in June.

18 Friday 14, US: University of Michigan consumer conf. (Jul, p) SEB Cons. Prev. Preliminary The Michigan consumer confidence index unexpectedly weakened in June to a seven-month low. Despite this, the index is still at a fairly strong level, consistent with a sharp consumption rebound. Confidence is supported by low gasoline prices, a tight labor market and strong stock markets, all of which continued to improve in the period covered by the survey. Trump s failure to enact tax cuts is a downside risk, however. In June, households 12-month ahead inflation expectations remained at 2.6%. Expected inflation in five years time rose from 2.4% to 2.6%. This contradicts the message from five year break-even expectations that fell. The Conference Board index rose in June but correlation to the Michigan index has weakened in recent months as Conference Board has shown greater optimism. We expect that the Michigan index rebounded in July and forecast 96.0, above the Bloomberg consensus.

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