Economic Outlook June Economic Policy Division
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1 Economic Outlook June 215 Economic Policy Division
2 U.S. GDP Actual and Potential Quarterly, Q1 198 to Q4 215 Real GDP Trillion 29 Dollars Log Scale $18. Forecast $15. $12.5 Actual Potential $9. $ Potential GDP estimated by Congressional Budget Office
3 U.S. GDP: Estimates of Potential (Real $213 dollars)
4 % Change 4. U.S. Potential GDP (Real $29 dollars) Forecast Potential GDP estimated by Congressional Budget Office
5 Real GDP Outlook Percent Change, Annual Rate
6 Percent Change, Annual Rate 9 Personal Consumption Outlook Real Personal Consumption Expenditures
7 Real Disposable per Capita Personal Income % Change Year to Year
8 Trillion $ Household Net Worth 9 8 Household Wealth
9 Household Balance Sheet Trillion $ Household Assets Total Assets Nonfinancial Assets Financial Assets Trillion $ 2 15 Household Liabilities
10 Domestic Bank Lending Billions $ 3,5 Consumer Credit Outstanding 3,2 2,9 2,6 2,3 2, Billions $ Residential Real Estate Loans Billions $ 1,2 Consumer Revolving Loans 1,6 9 1,
11 Consumer Confidence University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment Conference Board Consumer Confidence
12 Percent Change, Annual Rate 2 Real Business Fixed Investment
13 Investment Drivers SA, 27 = Industrial Production Percent of Capacity Capacity Utilization SAAR $Bil SA Corporate Profits Inventory-to Sales-Ratio
14 Sector Indicators SA, 2= ATA Truck Tonnage Index 6 month moving average; thous. tons 1,4 1, , Boxboard Production thous, 6-month moving average Total Rail Carloadings $ Bil, 3-month moving average Monthly Leasing and Finance Index
15 Domestic Bank Lending Billions $ 1, 9 C&I Loans at Commercial Banks small large
16 Domestic Bank Lending Percent Change Year to Year 25 2 C&I Loans at Commercial Banks small large
17 Business Confidence 7 65 ISM Manufacturing Index
18 SAAR, Bil. Chn. 2$ U.S. Trade Real Net Exports of Goods and Services Exchange Rate (Major Currencies/US$) U.S. Nominal Trade Weighted Exchange Rate
19 Eurozone Growth and Jobs Percent Change, Annual Rate Percent Unemployment Rates Source: Oxford Economics Real GDP Percent Change, Year to Year Inflation:
20 European Growth Percent Change, Annual Rate 1. Real GDP France Italy Germany Spain Source: Oxford Economics
21 United Kingdom Growth and Jobs Percent Change, Annual Rate 5. Real GDP Percent 1 8 Unemployment Rate Source: Oxford Economics
22 Emerging Markets Percent Change, Year to Year Real GDP Mexico China India Brazil South Africa Russia Source: Oxford Economics
23 Million 15 Total Nonfarm Jobs Labor Market Million 15 Household Employment SA, Thousands, 4-week Moving Average Initial Unemployment Claims Percent Unemployment Rate May 5.5% Unemployment Rate U
24 Labor Market Thousands SA, percent Marginally Attached Discouraged Workers Civilian Participation Rate Thousands 1, Part-time for Economic Reasons 8, 6, 4, 2, Median Weeks Unemployed, SA Duration of Unemployment
25 Employment-Population Ratio Percent
26 Inflation Percent Change Year to Year Consumer Price Index PCE Price Level
27 Percent 4. Interest Rate Spreads Yield Spread 1-Year Treasury 3 month Treasury Percent TED Spread 3-Month LIBOR Minus 3-Month Treasury Percent Risk Spread Moody's Seasoned Baa Corporate Bond Yield Minus Moody's Seasoned Aaa Corporate Bond Yield
28 Fed Policy Billions $ 4,5 4, Bank Assets and Liabilities 3,5 3, 2,5 2, 1,5 1, 5 Jan Apr. July Oct. Jan Apr Jul Oct Jan Apr Jul Oct Jan Apr Jul Oct Jan Apr Jul Oct Jan Apr Jul Oct Jan Apr Jul Oct Jan Apr Excess Federal Reserve Assets Money Supply (M1)
29 Market Trends Housing Thous. of Units, SAAR Housing Starts Thous. of Units, SAAR 12 Home Sales 7 New Home Sales (left axis) Existing Home Sales (right axis) Sales Price, Thous. $ Median Home Prices 15 Existing Homes 1 New Homes Housing Affordability Index
30 Housing Market Trends Millions Household Formation Thous. of Units, SAAR New Homes (left axis) Existing Homes (right axis) Housing Inventory Foreclosures: All Foreclosures: Subprime Mortgage Delinquency and Foreclosure Rates 15 Delinquencies: Prime 1 Delinquencies: 5 Subprime Percent Home Mortgages with Negative Equity
31 Thousands of Barrels per Day 9, Oil 7, 5, US Crude Oil Production 3, $/ Barrel Spot Oil Prices: West Texas Intermediate
32 Trillion Cubic Feet Natural Gas US Natural Gas Production $/ Barrel 14 Natural Gas Prices: Henry Hub
33 CBO s Baseline Deficit (January 215) Billions $ 5 Budget Deficit Percent of GDP 5 Deficit to GDP
34 Billions $ 25, 2, 15, 1, 5, Percent of GDP Government Baseline Outside Debt (January 215) Debt Debt to GDP
35 Government Gross Debt (January 215) Billions $ 3, 25, 2, Gross Debt 15, 1, 5, % 1% Gross Debt to GDP 8% 6% 4% 2% %
36 Government Revenues and Outlays ( percent of GDP) 3 25 Forecast Revenues (%GDP) Outlays (%GDP) Source: CBO Baseline (January 215)
Economic Outlook June Economic Policy Division
Economic Outlook June 215 Economic Policy Division U.S. GDP Actual and Potential Quarterly, Q1 198 to Q4 215 Real GDP Trillion 29 Dollars Log Scale $18. Forecast $15. $12.5 Actual Potential $9. $6.5 198
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