BUENA VISTA INVESTMENT MANAGEMENT

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1 BUENA VISTA INVESTMENT MANAGEMENT FOURTH QUARTER 2015 FINANCIAL MARKET REVIEW Buena Vista Investment Management LLC P.O. Box rd Street South Wisconsin Rapids, WI buenavistainv@buenavistainv.com

2 BUENA VISTA INVESTMENT MANAGEMENT FOURTH QUARTER 2015 THE STOCK MARKET

3 Disclosures The strategic investment tools listed below are used by Buena Vista Investment Management to assist in its investment process. The tools are primarily used in the formulation of asset allocation decisions relating to the allocation between equity investments and risk free money market investments. The tools are focused on intermediate to long term market trends and do not forecast shortterm movements. Do not rely on these tools to make investment decisions. December 24, 2015 Leuthold Major Trend Index Neutral 0.89 (as of Dec3mber 18th) The index status is considered to be positive, neutral or negative based on its underlying components. A reading above 1.05 is considered positive, between 0.95 and 1.05 is considered neutral and a reading below 0.95 is negative. The Leuthold Major Trend Index is considered by Buena Vista Investment Management to be a leading indicator. Investech Negative Leadership Composite Negative Selling Vacuum +0 Bearish Distribution 100 The Composite has two components: 1) Selling Vacuum (Bullish) A reading of +20 is considered very bullish and may signal the start of a new bull market. Readings of above zero signals an ongoing bullish stock environment; and 2) Distribution (Bearish) A reading below zero is considered to be bearish. The Investech Negative Leadership Composite is considered by Buena Vista Investment Management to be a leading indicator. Buena Vista Conservative Buy/Sell Discipline Negative 5 S&P POINTS / 0% To Sell The Buena Vista Conservative Buy/Sell Discipline utilizes the 300 day moving average of the S&P 500 stock index as a trigger for longterm buy and sell decisions. The discipline is either Bullish or Bearish depending on the relationship of the moving average and the index. The Buena Vista Conservative Buy/Sell Discipline is considered by Buena Vista Investment Management to be a lagging indicator.

4 HISTORIC DATA FOR STRATEGIC INVESTMENT TOOLS BUENA VISTA LEUTHOLD INVESTECH CONSERVATIVE MAJOR TREND NEGATIVE LEADERSHIP BUY/SELL DATE INDEX COMPOSITE DISCIPLINE December 24, 2015 Negative +0/ 100 Negative 5 points / 0% To Sell December 18, Negative +0/ 100 Negative 0 points / 0% To Sell December 11, Negative +0/ 97 Negative 0 points / 0% To Sell December 4, Neutral +0/ 71 Negative 40 points / 1.91% To Sell November 27, Neutral +0/ 78 Negative 42 points / 2.00% To Sell November 20, Neutral +0/ 80 Negative 42 points / 2.01% To Sell November 13, Neutral +0/ 75 Negative 0 points / 0% To Sell November 6, Neutral +0/ 75 Negative 54 points / 2.57% To Sell October 30, Neutral +0/ 92 Negative 36 points / 1.73% To Sell October 23, Negative +0/ 100 Negative 34 points / 1.63% To Sell October 16, Negative +0/ 100 Negative 0 points / 0% Negative October 9, Negative +0/ 100 Negative 0 points / 0% Negative October 2, Negative +0/ 100 Negative 0 points / 0% Negative September 25, Negative +0/ 100 Negative 0 points / 0% Negative September 18, Negative +0/ 100 Negative 0 points / 0% Negative September 11, Negative +0/ 100 Negative 0 points / 0% Negative September 4, Negative +0/ 100 Negative 0 points / 0% Negative August 28, Negative +0/ 100 Negative 0 points / 0% Negative August 21, Negative +0/ 100 Negative 0 points / 0% Negative August 14, Negative +0/ 100 Negative 53 points / 2.53% To Sell August 7, Negative +0/ 100 Negative 42 points / 2.02% To Sell July 31, Neutral +0/ 100 Negative 71 points / 3.37% To Sell July 24, Neutral +1/ 82 Negative 51 points / 2.45% To Sell July 17, Neutral +1/ 44 Negative 97 points / 4.57% To Sell July 10, Neutral +4/ 46 Negative 55 points / 2.64% To Sell July 2, Neutral +6/ 23 Negative 58 points / 2.79% To Sell

6 S&P 500 valuation measures GTM U.S. 5 Equities S&P 500 Index: Forward P/E ratio 26x 24x 22x Valuation measure Description Latest 25-year avg.* Std. dev. over/undervalued P/E Forward P/E 16.4x 15.7x 0.2 CAPE Shiller s P/E Div. Yield Dividend yield 2.0% 2.1% 0.1 P/B Price to book P/CF Price to cash flow x +1 Std. dev.: 19.0x EY Spread EY minus Baa yield 1.3% -0.6% x Current: 16.4x 16x Average: 15.7x 14x 12x -1 Std. dev.: 12.4x 10x 8x '90 '92 '94 '96 '98 '00 '02 '04 '06 '08 '10 '12 '14 5 Source: FactSet, FRB, Robert Shiller, Standard & Poor s, J.P. Morgan Asset Management. Price to Earnings is price divided by consensus analyst estimates of earnings per share for the next 12 months. Shiller s P/E uses trailing 10-years of inflation adjusted earnings as reported by companies. Dividend Yield is calculated as the trailing 12-month average dividend divided by price. Price to Book Ratio is the price divided by book value per share. Price to Cash Flow is price divided by NTM cash flow. EY Minus Baa Yield is the forward earnings yield (consensus analyst estimates of EPS over the next 12 months divided by price) minus the Moody s Baa seasoned corporate bond yield. Std. dev. over/undervalued is calculated using the average and standard deviation over 25-years for each measure. *P/CF is a 20-year avg. due to cash flow data availability. Guide to the Markets U.S. Data are as of June 30, 2015.

7 Corporate profits and leverage GTM U.S. 7 Equities S&P 500 earnings per share Index quarterly operating earnings $34 S&P consensus analyst estimates $29 $24 1Q15*: $25.81 Profit margins 11% S&P 500 operating EPS % of sales per share** 10% After-tax, adj. corp. profits, % of GDP 9% 8% 7% 6% 1Q15*: 9.4% 1Q15: 8.0% 5% $19 $14 $9 4% '60 '65 '70 '75 '80 '85 '90 '95 '00 '05 '10 '15 Total leverage S&P 500, ratio of total debt to total equity, quarterly 220% 200% 180% $4 -$1 '01 '02 '03 '04 '05 '06 '07 '08 '09 '10 '11 '12 '13 '14 '15 160% 140% 120% 100% 80% Average: 161% '96 '98 '00 '02 '04 '06 '08 '10 '12 '14 Source: BEA, Compustat, FactSet, Standard & Poor s, J.P. Morgan Asset Management. EPS levels are based on operating earnings per share. *Most recently available data is 1Q15 which is a Standard & Poor s estimate. Future earnings estimates are Standard & Poor s consensus analyst expectations. **S&P 500 Operating EPS % of Sales per Share fell to 0% in 4Q2008 and is adjusted on the chart. Past performance is not indicative of future returns. Guide to the Markets U.S. Data are as of June 30, Q15: 105% 7

8 BUENA VISTA INVESTMENT MANAGEMENT FOURTH QUARTER 2015 EMPLOYMENT

9 Unemployment and wages GTM U.S. 24 Civilian unemployment rate and year-over-year growth in wages of production and non-supervisory workers Seasonally adjusted, percent 12% Economy 10% 8% Unemployment Oct. 2009: 10.0% 6% 50-yr. average: 6.1% 4% 50-yr. average: 4.3% Jun. 2015: 5.3% 2% 0% Wage growth '70 '80 '90 '00 '10 Jun. 2015: 1.9% Source: BLS, FactSet, J.P. Morgan Asset Management.. Guide to the Markets U.S. Data are as of June 30,

10 Labor market perspectives GTM U.S. 25 Employment Total private payroll Total job gain/loss, thousands Labor force participation rate 68% 67% 66% Economy mm jobs lost 12.4mm jobs gained 65% 64% 63% Jun. 2015: 62.6% 62% '90 '92 '94 '96 '98 '00 '02 '04 '06 '08 '10 '12 '14 Net job creation since Feb Millions of jobs ,000 '06 '07 '08 '09 '10 '11 '12 '13 '14-1 Info. Fin & Bus. Svcs. Mfg. Trade & Trans. Leisure, Hospt. & Other Svcs. Edu. & Health Svcs. Mining & Construct. Gov't Source: BLS, FactSet, J.P. Morgan Asset Management. Guide to the Markets U.S. Data are as of June 30,

11 BUENA VISTA INVESTMENT MANAGEMENT FOURTH QUARTER 2015 ENERGY & THE DOLLAR

12 Energy: Supply, demand and prices GTM U.S. 29 Change in production and consumption of oil Production, consumption and inventories, million barrels per day Price of oil Brent crude, nominal prices, USD/barrel Production * 2016* Growth since 2013 $160 $140 Jun. 2008: $ Economy U.S % OPEC % Other % Global % $120 $100 Jun. 2014: $ Consumption $80 U.S % Europe % $60 Japan % China % Other % Global % $40 $20 Dec. 2008: $39.53 Jan. 2015: $48.40 Jun. 2015: $61.18 Inventory Change Source: EIA, IMF, FactSet, J.P. Morgan Asset Management. Brent crude are monthly averages in USD using global spot ICE prices. *Forecasts are from the April 2015 EIA Short-Term Energy Outlook and start in Guide to the Markets U.S. Data are as of June 30, $0 '96 '98 '00 '02 '04 '06 '08 '10 '12 '14 29

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14 Trade and the U.S. dollar GTM U.S. 28 Economy Trade balance Current account balance, % of GDP -7% -6% -5% 4Q05: -6.3% U.S. Dollar Index Monthly avg. of major currencies nominal trade-weighted index % 95 Jun. 2015: % 1Q15: -2.6% Mar. 2009: % % 0% '96 '98 '00 '02 '04 '06 '08 '10 '12 ' Mar. 2008: 70.3 Aug. 2011: 69.0 '96 '98 '00 '02 '04 '06 '08 '10 '12 '14 Source: BEA, Federal Reserve, FactSet, J.P. Morgan Asset Management. Currencies in the Trade Weighted U.S. Dollar Major Currencies Index are: British Pound, Euro, Swedish Kroner, Australian Dollar, Canadian Dollar, Japanese Yen, and Swiss Franc. Guide to the Markets U.S. Data are as of June 30,

15 BUENA VISTA INVESTMENT MANAGEMENT FOURTH QUARTER 2015 INTEREST RATES

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18 BUENA VISTA INVESTMENT MANAGEMENT FOURTH QUARTER 2015 ECONOMIC GROWTH

19 Economic growth and the composition of GDP GTM U.S. 18 Real GDP Year-over-year % change 10% Real GDP 1Q15 Components of GDP 1Q15 nominal GDP, USD trillions $19 3.3% Housing 8% YoY % chg: 2.9% QoQ % chg: -0.2% $ % Investment ex-housing Economy 6% 4% Average: 2.9% $15 $13 $ % Gov t spending 2% $9 0% -2% Expansion average: 2.2% $7 $5 68.5% Consumption $3-4% $1-6% '70 '75 '80 '85 '90 '95 '00 '05 '10 '15 -$1-3.2% Net exports Source: BEA, FactSet, J.P. Morgan Asset Management. Values may not sum to 100% due to rounding. Quarter over quarter percent changes are at an annualized rate. Average represents the annualized growth rate for the full period. Expansion average refers to the period starting in the second quarter of Guide to the Markets U.S. Data are as of June 30,

20 Consumer finances GTM U.S. 19 Economy Consumer balance sheet 1Q15, trillions of dollars outstanding, not seasonally adjusted $100 $90 $80 $70 $60 Total Assets: $99.1tn Homes: 24% Other tangible: 6% Deposits: 9% 3Q- 07 Peak: $82.0tn 1Q- 09 Low: $69.1tn Household debt service ratio Debt payments as % of disposable personal income, SA 14% 13% 12% 11% 10% 1Q80: 10.6% 4Q07: 13.2% 2Q15**: 9.9% 9% '80 '85 '90 '95 '00 '05 '10 '15 $50 $40 $30 $20 Pension funds: 21% Other financial assets: 39% Other non-revolving: 1% Revolving*: 6% Auto loans: 7% Other liabilities: 9% Student debt: 10% Total liabilities: $14.2tn Household net worth Not seasonally adjusted, USD billions $90,000 $80,000 $70,000 $60,000 $50,000 $40,000 2Q07: $67,866 2Q15**: $85,772 $10 $0 Mortgages: 68% $30,000 $20,000 $10,000 '90 '92 '94 '96 '98 '00 '02 '04 '06 '08 '10 '12 '14 Source: BEA, FactSet, FRB, J.P. Morgan Asset Management. Data include households and nonprofit organizations.sa seasonally adjusted. *Revolving includes credit cards. **1Q15 household debt service ratio and 1Q15 household net worth are J.P. Morgan Asset Management estimates. Values may not sum to 100% due to rounding. Guide to the Markets U.S. Data are as of June 30,

21 Consumer confidence and the stock market GTM U.S. 31 Consumer Sentiment Index University of Michigan Economy Aug % Impact on Consumer Sentiment from a 10% y-o-y rise in gasoline prices 10% y-o-y rise in home prices 10% y-o-y rise in the S&P 500 1% y-o-y rise in the unemployment rate May % Mar % -1.4 pts Jan % Jan % Jan % Jun. 2015: Average: Mar % Oct % Feb % May % Oct % Sentiment cycle low and subsequent 12-month S&P 500 Index return Nov % Aug % 40 '72 '74 '76 '78 '80 '82 '84 '86 '88 '90 '92 '94 '96 '98 '00 '02 '04 '06 '08 '10 '12 '14 Source: Standard & Poor s, University of Michigan, FactSet, J.P. Morgan Asset Management. Peak is defined as the highest index value before a series of lower lows, while a trough is defined as the lowest index value before a series of higher highs. Subsequent 12-month S&P 500 returns are price returns only, which excludes dividends. Impact on consumer sentiment is based on a multivariate monthly regression between 1/31/2000 5/31/2015. Guide to the Markets U.S. Data are as of June 30,

22 Cyclical sectors GTM U.S. 20 Economy Light vehicle sales Millions, seasonally adjusted annual rate Average: 15.3 Jun. 2015: 17.2 '96 '98 '00 '02 '04 '06 '08 '10 '12 '14 Manufacturing and trade inventories Days of sales, seasonally adjusted Apr. 2015: 41.4 '96 '98 '00 '02 '04 '06 '08 '10 '12 '14 Housing starts Thousands, seasonally adjusted annual rate 2,400 2,000 1,600 Real capital goods orders Non-defense capital goods orders ex. aircraft, USD billions, SA $70 $65 $60 1, Average: 1,337 May 2015: 1,036 0 $40 '96 '98 '00 '02 '04 '06 '08 '10 '12 '14 '95 '97 '99 '01 '03 '05 '07 '09 '11 '13 '15 Source: BEA, Census Bureau, FactSet, J.P. Morgan Asset Management. SA seasonally adjusted. Capital goods orders deflated using the producer price index for capital goods with a base year of Guide to the Markets U.S. Data are as of June 30, $55 $50 $45 Average: 56.5 May 2015:

23 Residential real estate GTM U.S. 21 Home prices Indexed to 100, seasonally adjusted 115 Housing Affordability Index Avg. mortgage payment as a % of household income 40% Economy Case Shiller 20-city FHFA purchase only Average existing home 35% 30% 25% 20% 15% Average: 19.7% May 2015: 12.2% % '75 '78 '81 '84 '87 '90 '93 '96 '99 '02 '05 '08 '11 '14 Lending standards for approved mortgage loans Average FICO score based on origination date Jun. 2015: '05 '06 '07 '08 '09 '10 '11 '12 '13 ' '04 '05 '06 '07 '08 '09 '10 '11 '12 '13 '14 '15 Sources: (Left) National Association of Realtors, Standard & Poor s, FHFA, FactSet, J.P. Morgan Asset Management. (Top right) Census Bureau, J.P. Morgan Asset Management. Monthly mortgage payment assumes the prevailing 30-year fixed-rate mortgage rates and average new home prices excluding a 20% down payment. (Bottom Right) McDash, J.P. Morgan Securitized Product Research, J.P. Morgan Asset Management. Guide to the Markets U.S. Data are as of June 30,

Federal finances GTM U.S. 23 The 2015 federal budget CBO Baseline forecast, USD trillions $4.0 Federal budget surplus/deficit % of GDP, 1990 2025, 2015 CBO Baseline -12% Forecast Economy $3.5 $3.0 $2.

24 Federal finances GTM U.S. 23 The 2015 federal budget CBO Baseline forecast, USD trillions $4.0 Federal budget surplus/deficit % of GDP, , 2015 CBO Baseline -12% Forecast Economy $3.5 $3.0 $2.5 $2.0 $1.5 $1.0 $0.5 Total Spending: $3.7tn Other $619bn (17%) Net Int.: $229bn (6%) Non-defense disc.: $536bn (15%) Defense: $586bn (16%) Social Security: $738bn (20%) Medicare & Medicaid: $969bn (26%) Borrowing: $486bn (13%) Other: $302bn (8%) Social insurance: $1,056bn (29%) Corp.: $328bn (9%) Income: $1,506bn (41%) -10% -8% -6% -4% -2% 0% 2% 4% 120% 100% 80% 60% 40% 2015: -2.7% '90 '95 '00 '05 '10 '15 '20 '25 Federal net debt (accumulated deficits) % of GDP, , 2015 CBO Baseline, end of fiscal year 2015: 74.2% Forecast 2025: 77.1% $0.0 Total Government Spending Sources of Financing 20% '40 '48 '56 '64 '72 '80 '88 '96 '04 '12 '20 Source: U.S. Treasury, BEA, CBO, St. Louis Fed, J.P. Morgan Asset Management Federal Budget is based on the CBO s March 2015 Baseline Budget Forecast. Other spending includes, but is not limited to, health insurance subsidies, income security, and federal civilian and military retirement. Note: Years shown are fiscal years (Oct. 1 through Sep. 30) numbers are CBO estimates as of March Guide to the Markets U.S. Data are as of June 30,

25 Voya Global Perspectives World Economy Gross Domestic Product (GDP) Global economic growth has more than doubled in the last 11 years driven by growth in emerging and developing economies. Fundamentals % of World GDP 2003 $38.1 Trillion 2008 $56.8Trillion 2014 $77.6Trillion Advanced Economies 80% 72% 61% Emerging and Developing Economies 20% 28% 39% Advanced economies: Comprised of 36 countries. Developing economies: Comprised of 153 countries. Source: International Monetary Fund (IMF) as of

26 Voya Global Perspectives Global Consumer Global household consumption of goods and services has increased 100% in the last decade but 95% of consumers reside outside the U.S. China is now the largest auto market in the world. Fundamentals Global Retail Sales Y/Y % Change Global Automobile Sales (Monthly Level Millions Annualized) U.S. Recession China Auto Sales 5 0 Great Britain Germany Greece Brazil Japan U.S. Auto Sales Global Retail Sales: Brazil, Germany and Japan as of 04/30/15; Greece as of 03/31/15; Great Britain as of 04/30/15. Global Automobile Sales: China auto as of 05/29/15; U.S. auto sales as of 05/29/15. Source: The World Bank, OICA, Factset 12

27 Voya Global Perspectives Developing Markets Drive Growth World GDP accelerated in the last decade, supported by the largest emerging markets, which now outproduce the largest developed economies, where generally higher debt levels hinder economic growth. Fundamentals World GDP 100 Gross Government Debt to GDP G7 $ Trillions % of GDP All Advanced Economies Emerging and Developing Economies Data as of 12/31/14. Source: IMF World Economic Outlook database Note: The G7 countries are comprised of the U.S., U.K., France, Germany, Italy, Canada and Japan 14

December 2014 FINANCIAL MARKET REVIEW

December 2014 FINANCIAL MARKET REVIEW Buena Vista Investment Management LLC 241 Third Street South Wisconsin Rapids, WI 54494 715-422-0700 http://buenavistainv.com December 2014 Why Portfolios Remain Diversified