2008 Economic and Market Outlook
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1 Economic and Market Outlook Presented by: Gareth Watson Warren Jestin Vincent Delisle December 7 Economic Outlook Warren Jestin
2 The Global Economic Landscape is Changing Rapidly Gears Down Emerging Powerhouses In High Gear 11 Real GDP, annual average % change 11 Real GDP, annual average % change f f Eurozone Japan Brazil Mexico Russia India China Emerging Nations Are Shifting Global Demand Population 1. billions CHINA Global GDP (PPP) % of global GDP, Other Americas & the Caribbean % 1. INDIA China 1% 1. & 1% India %... JAPAN EU-1 RUSSIA Europe % Other Asia & Oceania 1%.. CAN- MEXICO BRAZIL Africa 3% Source: IMF
3 Underpinning Commodities... Oil and Natural Gas 9 7 US$/bbl Natural Gas (Nymex) (RHS) US$/mmbtu WTI Oil 3 futures (LHS) Nickel & Uranium 13 US$/pound Uranium 7 Nickel World Oil Reserves estimated recoverable reserves, billions of barrels Venezuela Russia Iraq Saudi Arabia 1... & Reshaping Financial Markets Current Account Balances Foreign Exchange Reserves 1 % of GDP, 7 est India Mexico Source: IMF 7 estimates Euro zone Latin America Japan Russia Taiwan China & H.K. China & H.K. Japan Taiwan S. Korea India Russia Euro zone Latin America NAFTA US$ billions, Sept
4 For, These Trends Point to Ongoing Competitive Challenges... Major Canadian Exports Index: = Crude Petroleum Natural Gas Imports 1 % share of total ex. Energy Euro zone 1 Mining Vehicles & Parts Forest Products ytd 1 China Mexico Japan ytd and Economic Restructuring Canadian Manufacturing Lags Services & Construction Lead GDP, Index: = 1 GDP, Index: = Manufacturing Autos & Parts 1 Wholesale & Retail Trade Pulp & Paper Products 13 Construction Information & Communication 7 Computers & Electric Products Textiles ytd 1 11 Health & Education Financial Services & Real Estate ytd
5 With Inflation Poised to Move Lower Canadian Inflation 3 1 Canadian Core CPI y/y% change Core CPI CPI, y/y% change Rest of s Inflation Dichotomy Index: = New Housing Price Index Total CPI Gasoline Motor Vehicle Prices Electricity Computers & Consumer Electronics ytd & The Housing Recession Deepening Soaring Inventories Put Housing Sector in Recession 11 1 months supply 7 Index NAHB Sentiment Index (LHS) mn units Balanced market Existing Homes 3 Housing Starts (RHS) New Homes
6 The Fed Will Continue to Lead the Bank of Central Bank Rates 7 % Mortgage and Prime Rates 9 % 3 7 -year Conventional Mortgage 1 Prime Central Bank Spread Underpinning the Loonie Tops G7 In Fiscal & Trade Trends C$ billions Energy Balance Trade Balance Motor Vehicles & Parts -1 Federal Provincial Balance Balance The Leapin Loonie CAD/USD -year Average (19-) Canadian Dollar
7 At a Time of Heightened Dollar Vulnerability Twin Deficits Will Be Slow To Turn 3 US$ billions Balance ex. Social Security Federal Budget Balance Global Currency Realignment (US /currency), Index: Q1=* 1 1 Euro $ CAD -3 1 Yen - -7 Trade Balance 11 9 $ Mexican Peso 元 Yuan * Last data point: December 3, 7 Western Provinces Give a Performance Edge Spending Stronger in annual y/y % change Real Consumption Energy Boosts Non-Residential Construction Index: = 19 Non-Residential Construction annual y/y % change Ontario B.C Index: = B.C. Quebec Quebec Ontario
8 Housing Conditions Much Stronger in Housing Starts Index: = 7 Household Equity % of home value Housing Starts Index: = Quebec B.C Debt Service % of Personal Disposable Income 1 Ontario Canadian Job Gains & Spending Remain Tilted West Unemployment Rate Retail Sales B.C. Saskatchewan Manitoba CANADA Ontario Quebec Saskatchewan Manitoba B.C. Atlantic Quebec Atlantic %, 7ytd Ontario y/y % change, 7ytd
9 Government Surpluses Provide Room for Fiscal Stimulus Substantial Budget Surpluses Underpin Program Spending British Columbia British Columbia Federal Federal Manitoba Manitoba New Brunswick Saskatchewan Nova Scotia Ontario Newfoundland & Labrador New Brunswick Saskatchewan Nova Scotia Ontario Newfoundland & Labrador Quebec P.E.I. Quebec $ per capita, FY7 P.E.I. annual % change in $ per capita, FY-FY7 1, 1,,, 1 Canadian Growth Will Remain Best in the West Real GDP average annual % change Canadian Average, f B.C. Man. - Sask. Ontario Quebec Atlantic
10 Equity Market Outlook Vincent Delisle Repricing Risk Wake-Up Call: Premiums Are Back! Bond Market Spreads-Now versus Historical Levels Current spread July-7 Historical Average ACBP - 3-M Tbills Investment grade Emerging markets Source: Scotia Capital, Bloomberg, S&P, Moody's Economy.com
11 Flight-To-Quality Helps Large Caps Large Cap & Small Cap Performance 1 Normalized Large Cap (Russell ) Small Cap (Russell ) 9 9 Jun- Aug- Oct- Dec- Feb-7 Apr-7 Jun-7 Aug-7 Oct-7 Source: Scotia Capital, Bloomberg & Emerging Markets??? S&P & Emerging Markets Performance 1 17 Normalized 1 1 S&P MSCI EM Jun- Aug- Oct- Dec- Feb-7 Apr-7 Jun-7 Aug-7 Oct-7 Source: Scotia Capital, Bloomberg
12 Fed Easing & Equities Equity Gains Take Off months After Start Of Fed Rate Cuts S&P, TSX and US Yield Curve Performance Prior/After First Fed CUT 1 1 Normalized (T- = ) First 1 Months S&P (C$) - LHS TSX - LHS US Yield Curve (bp) - RHS # of Months Prior/After the First fed Easing Source: Scotia Capital, Bloomberg Fed Easing & Resources Slower Growth & Rate Cuts = Weaker Spot Prices CRB & Fed Funds Tend To Move Together 1 1 Fed Funds (%) - LHS CRB index - RHS Dec-7 Dec-77 Dec-79 Dec-1 Dec-3 Dec- Dec-7 Dec-9 Dec-91 Dec-93 Dec-9 Dec-97 Dec-99 Dec-1 Dec-3 Dec- Dec-7 Source: Scotia Capital, Bloomberg
13 Main Challenge Will Come From Earnings YOY Profit Growth (red line) Will Dip Below % Through Q/ S&P Earnings Growth & Yield Curve YC (bp) - LHS EPS Growth (T+1-M) - RHS Correlation: +% % % 3% % 1% % -1% -% -3% - -% Mar-7 Mar-1 Mar- Mar-9 Mar-73 Mar-77 Mar-1 Mar- Mar-9 Mar-93 Mar-97 Mar-1 Mar- Source: Scotia Capital, Bloomberg and Negative Earnings Revisions Revisions Will Challenge Equities In 1H EPS Growth Forecasts: Bottom-Up in Double Digits! MSCI World MSCI World (Ex-) Europe EAFE EM Source: Scotia Capital, Thomson Financial
14 Valuations Remain Supportive Below Average PE Multiples & Very Low Bond Yields S&P 1-M Forward P/E S&P : 1.3X vs. Avg. of 1.X Jan- Jan- Jan-7 Jan- Jan-9 Jan-9 Jan-91 Jan-9 Jan-93 Jan-9 Jan-9 Jan-9 Jan-97 Jan-9 Jan-99 Jan- Jan-1 Jan- Jan-3 Jan- Jan- Jan- Jan-7 Source: Scotia Capital, Thomson Financial Market Will Lead EPS Rebound By 9 Months S&P Performance & Earnings Growth % % 3% % 1% % -1% -% -3% -% S&P Performance EPS Growth (%) Mar-7 Mar-1 Mar- Mar-9 Mar-73 Mar-77 Mar-1 Mar- Mar-9 Mar-93 Mar-97 Mar-1 Mar- Source: Scotia Capital, Bloomberg
15 How Long Does Phase Last? Equity Market & Economic Cycle Investment Cycle: Early Cycle Mid-Cycle Late Cycle Cycle Peak Interest Rates 3 BUY Resources Energy Base Metals BUY Business Spending Industrials Growth Stocks Technology BUY Defensive Consumer Staples Health Care Utilities Gold 1 BUY Early Cyclical Consumer Discretionary Financials Retailing Economic Cycle: Early Recovery Full Recovery Early Recession Full Recession 1 Source: Scotia Capital Equities Over Bonds In Tougher 1H Expected For Equities Weights Recommended Expected total Min Max Weight Return (%) Equities TSX 1 3 % S&P 1 3 % MSCI EAFE % Bonds 3 7 -% Cash 7 % Source: Scotia Capital
16 Sector Strategy - Defensive Failure Of TSX Index Is A Challenge Scotia Capital Sector Allocation Scotia Capital Sector Recommendation Defensive & Interest Sensitive Financials Overweight Telecommunication Overweight Utilities Market Weight Health Care Underweight Resources Energy Underweight Materials Market Weight Economic Sensitive Industrials Overweight Information technology Overweight Consumer Consumer Staples Market Weight Consumer Discretionary Underweight Source: Scotia Capital
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