Economic Indicators December 2017

Size: px

Start display at page:

Download "Economic Indicators December 2017"

Leslie Garrett
5 years ago
Views:

1 Economic Indicators December 2017

2 General Economy

3 GDP % Change U.S. GDP Growth First two consecutive quarters over 3% in 3 years 6.0% 4.0% 2.0% 0.0% -2.0% -4.0% -6.0% Last 3 quarters: 3Q17: 3.2% 2Q17: 3.0% 1Q17: 1.2% -8.0% -10.0% Source: Bureau of Economic Analysis (Real GDP). Prior quarters subject to revision.

4 GDP Global Comparison U.S. and world growth rates are expected to improve somewhat in 2017 and continue the trend in % GDP Growth E 2018E Mexico Italy Canada China Brazil Spain United States European Union World Source: IMF World Economic Outlook update as of October 2017 (updated semi-annually)

Unemployment Rate The national rate continues to decline to historic lows. Even states with historically higher rates such as the west and the rust belt are showing improvement.

5 Unemployment Rate The national rate continues to decline to historic lows. Even states with historically higher rates such as the west and the rust belt are showing improvement. Selected State Data (Nov 2017) U.S. national unemployment rate Better than average: Virginia: 3.7% Florida: 3.6% Texas: 3.8% Worse than average: Pennsylvania: 4.6% Ohio: 4.8% Michigan: 4.6% New York: 4.7% New Jersey: 5.1% Nevada: 5.0% California: 4.6% Illinois: 4.9% Other key states: Georgia: 4.3% North Carolina: 4.3% South Carolina: 4.0% Last 3 months: Sep 2017: 4.2% Oct 2017: 4.1% Nov 2017: 4.1% Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics

6 Personal Savings Rate (%) Personal Savings Rate. Rates continue to decline and are currently at their lowest point since the financial crisis. Some concern from economists that rates are too low Source: Bureau of Economic Analysis, Monthly Personal Income and Outlays, Table 1: personal savings as a % of disposable personal income. Prior months subject to revision.

7 Consumer Sentiment Index December was slightly weaker than expected, but Q4 average was still high Last 3 months: Oct 17: Nov 17: 98.5 Dec 17: 95.9 Source: University of Michigan Survey of Consumer Sentiment as reported in Previous months subject to revision

8 Residential Housing Economy / Residential Remodel

9 (000's Units) Annual Housing Starts Growth rates remain positive but are slowing. Multi-family is expected to decline 2,200 2,000 1, %chg 2017 %chg 2018 Single family: 784 8% 844 8% 911 Multi family: % 347-1% 343 TOTAL % % ,600 1,400 1,200 1, Source: NAHB Housing/Economic Forecast (projection as of November 2017) NAHB Projection

10 Thousands of Starts Housing Starts Seasonal Trend Starts in the first three quarters of 2017 grew around 3%, growth has slowed since Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Starts (000 s): 1Q 2Q 3Q 4Q Total Source: U.S. Census Bureau for historical figures; may differ slightly from other published annual figures

11 Thousands of Units Existing Home Sales Fourth quarter sales are showing an increase over prior years Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Sales (000 s): 1Q 2Q 3Q 4Q Total Source: National Association of REALTORS (

12 Number of Months Month-End Supply Existing Home Supply Supply has tightened in recent months, dipping back below the 4 month level 14 4, Last 3 months: Sep 17: 4.2 Oct 17: 3.9 Nov 17: 3.4 3,600 3, , , ,600 Months Supply of Inventory Month-End Inventory (000's) Source: National Association of REALTORS (prior months subject to revision)

13 Foreclosures Overall U.S. foreclosures are still at historically low levels. Illinois and New Jersey continue to lead among high population states Source: RealtyTrac.com, November 2017

14 LIRA Remodeling Index Remodeling projected to continue to grow in 2018 Factors in Harvard s LIRA Index: Pending home sales Building material shipments Contractor sentiment and hours worked Cash out refinancing data General economic indicators 16.6%

15 Commercial Construction Economy

16 ABI Rating Architecture Billings Index ABI is a leading indicator of future construction activity (50 = no change from prior month) Index dipped in September but has come back in the last two months Nov 2017: Billings 55.0 Inquiries ABI Billings Inquiry Index Source: American Institute of Architects ( Prior months subject to revision

17 ABI Rating ABI Rating ABI Rating ABI Rating Architecture Billings Index - Regions ABI is a leading indicator of future construction activity (50 = no change from prior month) The West picked up in November. Activity is positive in all regions. Northeast Midwest Nov: Nov: South 70 West Nov: Nov: 54.8 Source: American Institute of Architects (

18 Commercial Lending Market Mortgage Bankers Association commercial loan origination index 2017 is trending higher than prior year with strong second and third quarter performance Source: Mortgage Bankers Assoc. (mba.org) Quarterly index: 2001 = 100.

19 Ceramic Tile Industry

20 ($billions) U.S. Ceramic Tile Market Market size approximately $3.5 billion; larger than pre-recession levels. +4% $3.2-13% $2.8-11% $2.5-24% $1.9 +9% $2.1 +6% $2.2 +7% $ % $2.6 +9% $2.9 +7% $3.1 +6% $3.3 $ E 2017E Source: Floor Covering Weekly; internal estimates. Prior year data subject to periodic restatement.

21 U.S. Market by Segment Total = Total = Total = Total = Total = Total = Total = Total = +9% +6% +7% +12% +9% +7% +6% +4% E 15% 15% 14% 11% 10% 8% 9% 7% 8% 9% 10% 10% 8% 9% 7% 7% 7% 5% 6% 6% 5% 6% 5% 5% 5% 4% 3% 0% Note: Industry data from prior years is subject to periodic restatement. New Res Res Remodel Commercial

Nonfarm Payroll Employment

Nonfarm Payroll Employment PRESIDENT'S REPORT TO THE BOARD OF DIRECTORS, FEDERAL RESERVE BANK OF BOSTON Current Economic Developments - June 10, 2004 Data released since your last Directors' meeting show the economy continues to