Economic Update: Will Tailwinds Offset Headwinds in 2012? Asha Bangalore
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1 N O R T H E R N T R U S T Economic Update: Will Tailwinds Offset Headwinds in 2? Asha Bangalore Senior Vice President & Economist, Northern Trust (3) , agb3@ntrs.com 1 2 Northern Trust Corporation northerntrust.com
2 Is uninterrupted self-sustained economic growth likely in the quarters ahead? 8 Real Gross Domestic Product % Change - Annual Rate SAAR, Bil.Chn.25$ Source: Bureau of Economic Analysis /Haver Analytics Insurance Executive Roundtable March 21, 2
3 Recent economic recoveries in perspective. Index, Trough =1 14 Real Gross Domestic Product Quarters before and after trough 3 Insurance Executive Roundtable March 21, 2
4 Unemployment & Inflation 2 Northern Trust Corporation northerntrust.com
5 Recent improvements in the labor market are noteworthy but the elevated unemployment rate remains a major source of concern for the Fed. Civilian Unemployment Rate: 16 yr + SA, % Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics /Haver Analytics Insurance Executive Roundtable March 21, 2
6 The duration of unemployment has a significant impact not only in the near term but also in the long run. Unemployed for 27 Weeks and Over: % of Civilians Unemployed 5 SA, % Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics /Haver Analytics Insurance Executive Roundtable March 21, 2
7 Payroll employment has been showing encouraging signs in the last few months. 8 Change in Total Nonfarm Employment SA, Thous Change in Total Nonfarm Employment 3-month MovingAverage SA, Thous Sources: Bureau of Labor Statistics /Haver Analytics Insurance Executive Roundtable March 21, 2
8 Current US inflation data show a moderating trend. However, the threat of higher energy prices remains a valid risk factor. 4 CPI-U: All Items % Change - Year to Year NSA, =1 CPI-U: All Items Less Food and Energy % Change - Year to Year NSA, = Sources: Bureau 1 of Labor Statistics /Haver Analytics 11 8 Insurance Executive Roundtable March 21, 2
9 Inflation expectations are non-threatening, for now. 3 Inflation Expectations 5-Year Nominal minus 5-Year TIP Rate % Source: Federal Reserve Board/Haver Analytics Insurance Executive Roundtable March 21, 2
10 Headwinds & Tailwinds 2 Northern Trust Corporation northerntrust.com
11 Bank credit and federal funds rate in the post-war period. 2 Bank Credit: All Commercial Banks % Federal Funds [effective] Rate % p.a Sources: Federal Reserve Board /Haver Analytics Insurance Executive Roundtable March 21, 2
12 The economy has experienced the most severe credit contraction of the entire post-war period. Recent data point to a noticeable turnaround. Bank Credit: All Commercial Banks SAAR, % Federal Funds [effective] Rate % p.a Sources: Federal Reserve Board /Haver Analytics Insurance Executive Roundtable March 21, 2
13 The historical relationship between credit and economic activity is significant and compelling Gross Domestic Product % Change - Year to Year SAAR, Bil.$ Break-Adjusted Bank Credit: All Commercial Banks % Change - Year to Year SA, Bil.$ r = Sources: BEA, FRB/H /Haver Insurance Executive Roundtable March 21, 2
14 Tepid projections of growth in consumer spending reflect feeble support from income and net worth of households Real Personal Consumption Expenditures SAAR, Bil.Chn.25$ Real Personal Consumption Expenditures % Change - Year to Year SAAR, Bil.Chn.25$ Sources: Bureau 1 of Economic Analysis /Haver Analytics Insurance Executive Roundtable March 21, 2
15 Tepid projections of growth in consumer spending reflect feeble support from net worth and income of households. Households: Net worth as a percent if Disposable Personal Income Real Disposable Personal Income % Change - Year to Year SAAR, Bil.Chn.25$ Source: Haver Analytics Source: Bureau 1 of Economic Analysis /Haver Analytics Insurance Executive Roundtable March 21, 2
16 Consumer borrowing shows a change, which is small but nevertheless noteworthy. Households & Nonprofit Orgs: Credit Market Instruments: Liability 15 SAAR, Bil.$ Source: Federal Reserve Board /Haver Analytics Insurance Executive Roundtable March 21, 2
17 Sales and starts of homes remain close to recession lows, with latest reports pointing to small improvements. 8 6 Total Existing Home Sales, United States (SAAR, Thous) New 1-Family Houses Sold: United States (SAAR, Thous) Housing Starts (SAAR, Thous.Units) 8 6 Existing home sales rose 4.3% in January 2 to an annual rate of 4.57 million units New home sales fell.9% to an annual rate of 321, units in in January Sources: National Association of Realtors/Haver Analytics, Census Bureau 11 Housing starts rose 1.5% in Jan. 2 to an annual rate of 699, units 17 Insurance Executive Roundtable March 21, 2
18 Homes are affordable. If employment gains continue in 2, home sales should follow. 2 Composite Housing Affordability Index Median Inc=Qualifying Inc= Source: National Association of Realtors /Haver Analytics Insurance Executive Roundtable March 21, 2
19 Based on current projections of moderate growth, capital spending should also post moderate growth. Real Private Nonresidential Investment: Equipment & Software 4 % Change - Annual Rate SAAR,Bil.Chn.25$ Source: Bureau of Economic Analysis /Haver Analytics Insurance Executive Roundtable March 21, 2
20 Destination of U.S Exports Rest of World, 8% Mexico, Central & South America, 25% Europe, 22% Canada, 19% Pacific Rim excluding China & Japan, 14% Japan, 5% China, 7% 2 Insurance Executive Roundtable March 21, 2
21 The European sovereign debt crisis and a slower pace of business activity in developing economies are factors that will trim export growth in 2. 3 Exports, f.a.s.: Goods % Change - Year to Year NSA, Mil.$ Source: Census Bureau /Haver Analytics Insurance Executive Roundtable March 21, 2
22 China: Another episode of soft landing? 14 China: Real GDP: Year-to-Year Percent Change % Source: China National Bureau of Statistics /Haver Analytics Insurance Executive Roundtable March 21, 2
23 China is not only a large exporter but also a significant importer of goods. The global ramifications of slow growth in exports and imports of China are significant. 4 China: Merchandise Exports, fob % Change - Period to Period SA, Mil.US$ China: Merchandise Imports, cif % Change - Period to Period SA, Mil.US$ Sources: China Customs /Haver Analytics Insurance Executive Roundtable March 21, 2
24 Europe has to overcome a debt crisis, address banking problems and a credit crunch in an environment of fiscal austerity. 1 EU 27: GDP at 2 Prices {Flash Estimate} SA/WDA, qtr/qtr %chg Source: Statistical Office of the European Communities /Haver Analytics Insurance Executive Roundtable March 21, 2
25 Monetary & Fiscal Policy Issues 2 Northern Trust Corporation northerntrust.com
26 The nature of recent economic data allow the Fed to watch from the sidelines, for now, and offer it room to ease if the pace of economic activity fades. Federal Open Market Committee: Fed Funds Target Rate: Upper Limit 6 EOP, % Source: Federal Reserve Board /Haver Analytics Insurance Executive Roundtable March 21, 2
27 Projections suggest that containing growth of federal outlays, particularly entitlement expenditures, should be the focus of fiscal policy discussions. 26 CBO Outlays: Percent of GDP Fiscal Year, % CBO Revenues: Percent of GDP Fiscal Year, % Sources: Congressional Budget Office /Haver Analytics Insurance Executive Roundtable March 21, 2
28 Reasons behind the sharp increase in future outlays - Medicare, Medicaid, Social Security, and interest on federal debt. CBO Baseline Budget Projections, Outlays: Mandatory Spending CBO Baseline Budget Projections, Outlays: Net Interest Baseline Projection of Discretionary Spending: Outlays (Bil.$) Sources: Congressional Budget Office /Haver Analytics Insurance Executive Roundtable March 21, 2
29 The changing economic watch list Positive Signals: ISM factory survey Industrial production Private sector payrolls Unemployment rate Jobless claims Homebuilders survey Single-family housing starts Sales of existing homes Bank credit Inflation Worrisome Issues: Labor market challenges Housing market woes Home foreclosures Underwater mortgages Exports European debt crisis Slowing economic conditions in China Geopolitical concerns 29 Insurance Executive Roundtable March 21, 2
30 U.S. Economic Outlook 21a 211a 2f Real Gross Domestic Product (Q4-to-Q4 % change) Unemployment Rate (Q4 Average) Consumer Price Index (Q4-to-Q4 % change) a=actual f=forecast Federal funds rate (Q4 Average) year U.S. Treasury note yield (Q4 Average) Source: Haver Analytics / The Northern Trust Company 3 Insurance Executive Roundtable March 21, 2
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