Midwest Perspectives. Bill Testa Vice President Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago
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1 Midwest Perspectives Community Banking Conference University of Wisconsin--Whitewater April 27, 2018 Bill Testa Vice President Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago
2 Topics Today U.S. Economy (doing well) Midwest Economy Near Term (doing well except ag) Long run challenges (slow growth of pop and workforce, especially small places and rural areas) April 27, 2018 Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago 2
3 Overview of U.S. 1. Upward revision to Q GDP estimate together with strengthening business and consumer optimism has lead to higher economic expectations for Consumer sentiment increased to 14 year high in April, aided by improving incomes and strength in the labor markets. 3. Business activity (Investment and Export Recovery) remains strong especially in manufacturing. 4. The prospect of high tariff environment has added to market volatility and business uncertainty. 5. Economy running close to potential as labor markets tighten. 6. Wage and price growth firming while inflation (and expectations) remains below the 2-percent objective. 7. Many forecasts revised higher for this year and next with fiscal stimulus of tax reform and higher federal spending
4 U.S. Real GDP Billions Chained $2009, % Change Q/Q at SAAR $ Billions 18,000 17,000 Q4 17 $17,287 Percent , ,000 14, % , ,000 '00 '01 '02 '03 '04 '05 '06 '07 '08 '09 '10 '11 '12 '13 '14 '15 '16 ' Source: U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis
5 U.S. Real GDP CBO Projections Percent Change, Fourth Quarter to Fourth Quarter In Billions of Chained $2009 Percent Jun '17 Fcst Apr '18 Fcst Source: Congressional Budget Office.
6 Real Personal Consumption Real Personal Consumption Expenditures 1 and Retail Sales 2 Percent Change Year-over-year PCE Retail Feb % 1.7% 1. Real Personal Consumption Expenditures - SAAR 2. Real Retail Sales and Food Services - SA Source: Author s calculation using U.S. Census Bureau of Economic Analysis data.
7 Consumer Sentiment University of Michigan Index January Mar '82 '84 '86 '88 '90 '92 '94 '96 '98 '00 '02 '04 '06 '08 '10 '12 '14 '16 '18 Source: Thomson Reuters / University of Michigan
8 Income and Savings Rate Percent Change and Percent of DPI Percent 10.0 Real DPI - % Chg. Yr./Yr., $2009 Percent 12.0 Personal Saving Rate - % of DPI 8.0 Pre-recession 3.1% Post recession Average 5.5% Feb % Post Recession 1.8% Pre-recession average 4.0% Feb % -6.0 '00 '02 '04 '06 '08 '10 '12 '14 '16 ' '00 '02 '04 '06 '08 '10 '12 '14 '16 Source: U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis
9 ISM Purchasing Managers Index Manufacturing & Composite, SA - Greater than 50 = Expansion Index Mar Jan-17 Apr-17 Jul-17 Oct-17 Jan-18 Mfg. PMI (LHA) Composite (LHA) Source: Institute for Supply Management, Haver Analytics and FRED
10 Industrial Production & New Orders Index, 2012 = 100 Index Industrial Production Index New Orders Feb Feb '17 '17 '17 '17 '17 '17 '17 '17 '17 '17 '17 '17 '18 ' A J O 2018 Total Manufacturing All Mfg. Mfg. Durable Goods Source: Board of Governors, Federal Reserve and U.S. Census Bureau
11 Unemployment Rate & Prices Percent Unemployed, PCE / CPI % Change Yr./Yr. Percent 11.0 Unemployment Percent 4.0 PCE Inflation All Items Target 2.0% Feb % 1.6% Mar % '09 '10 '11 '12 '13 '14 '15 '16 '17 ' '11 '12 '13 '14 '15 '16 '17 '18 Actual Target PCE - All Items PCE - Core Source: U.S. Department of Labor: Bureau of Labor Statistics, Bureau of Economic Analysis and the Federal Reserve
12 We re likely at potential and headed above it April 27, 2018 Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago 12
13 Labor Conditions Job Openings and Quit & Layoff Rates Ratio 6.0 Unemployed / Job Adds Percent Quits and Layoffs & Discharges Divided by Nonfarm Payroll Jan % Mar % '08 '09 '10 '11 '12 '13 '14 '15 '16 '17 ' '08 '09 '10 '11 '12 '13 '14 '15 '16 '17 '18 Quit Rate Layoffs & Discharge Rate Sources: U.S. Department of Labor Job Openings and Labor Turnover Survey (JOLTS) and Conference Board Help Wanted Online Data (HWOL)
14 Topics Today U.S. Economy Midwest Economy Near Term Long run challenges April 27, 2018 Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago 14
15 Our District s labor market is in good shape too April 27, 2018 Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago 15
16 Things are going well in our District April 27, 2018 Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago 16
17 Things are going particularly well for manufacturers April 27, 2018 Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago 17
18 Things are going well in the rest of the world too IMF real GDP growth forecast for 2018 April 27, 2018 Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago 18
19 Agricultural economy April 27, 2018 Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago 19
20 7th District Agriculture Products (as % of U.S. total, 2017) 50% 40% 30% 20% 10% 0% Grain Corn Soybeans Hogs Eggs Milk Production Cattle Source: Calculations based on data from USDA, National Agricultural Statistics Service April 27, 2018 Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago 20
21 Real Cash Crop Prices 40 ($/bushel for Central IL, adjusted by CPI-U for January 2010) Corn Soybeans Sources: The Wall Street Journal and U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics April 27, 2018 Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago 21
22 Real USDA Livestock Prices 250 ($/hundredweight, adjusted by CPI-U for January 2010) Hogs Cattle Sources: USDA, National Agricultural Statistics Service and U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics April 27, 2018 Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago 22
23 Price per cwt. Billion dollars Dairy exports and milk prices $26 $22 $18 $ $ Exports Price 2018 USDA forecast Source: USDA, World Agricultural Outlook Board April 27, 2018 Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago 23
24 billion 2018$ Real net farm income and direct government payments to farmers * government payments *USDA forecast Source: USDA, Economic Research Service April 27, 2018 Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago 24
25 Percent Annual change in farmland values in 7th Federal Reserve District Source: Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago April 27, 2018 Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago 25
26 percent Farm loan volume with major or severe repayment problems in 7th Federal Reserve District Source: Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago April 27, 2018 Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago 26
27 Topics Today U.S. Economy Midwest Economy Near Term Long run challenges April 27, 2018 Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago 27
28 A rich, prosperous region with world class assets, but challenged We are a goods-producing region with technology displacing labor, especially manual labor Many large cities are an asset during an era of globalization/urbanization but older industrial/ag cities struggling to become service-oriented small cities and rural areas struggling We are a populous and diverse region (but Sunbelt migration challenging) World-class skilled workforce (but aging and becoming closed to immigration on U.S. side) April 27, 2018 Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago 28
29 Manufacturing as share of total jobs percent Midwest U.S. April 27, 2018 Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago 29
30 Changing technology/globalization not kind to small places April 27, 2018 Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago 30
31 Population change region and county April 27, 2018 Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago 31
32 Demographics: Sunbelt trends return April 27, 2018 Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago 32
33 Aging adding to workforce dearth April 27, 2018 Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago 33
34 Loss of political representation Congressional Delegates Loss Change (%) U.S % WI % MN % IL % IN % MI % OH % PA % NY % GLS % 34
35 QUESTIONS? April 27, 2018 Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago 35
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