Indicators of the Kansas Economy

Transcription

1 Governor s Council of Economic Advisors Indicators of the Kansas Economy A Review of Economic Trends and the Kansas Economy 1000 S.W. Jackson St. Suite 100 Topeka, KS Phone: (785) Fax: (785) sahlerich@kansascommerce.com February 2016

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3 Millions of dollars 140, , , , ,000 90,000 80,000 Personal Income, Kansas Review and Analysis of the February 2016 IKE Report The Indicators of the Kansas Economy (IKE) began as a research program under the stewardship of Kansas, Inc. The Governor s Council of Economic Advisors continues the initiative as a service to its members and the public at large. IKE tracks a select set of economics oriented metrics published by government sources. In many cases, these metrics come with a time lag, perhaps as much as one or two years. Even with a relatively long time lag, the most recently reported numbers often undergo one or more future revisions, as the government agencies reporting the data obtain access to more or better information. The metrics reported by IKE offer the best available indicators at the time they are published. While IKE tracks the mid west six state region due to geographical and logistical reasons, these states are not homogenous in nature: some states have twice the population and others have an entirely different sector mix. The figures should be interpreted with those differences in mind. This most recent edition of the IKE report includes 17 updated metrics and 4 revised metrics. A select summary of those follows: Personal income: Personal income for Kansas has increased to 133,498 million dollars based on the 2015 Q1 Q3 average, up from 130,364 million in Per Capita: Kansas surpassed the region on per capita personal income with a figure of $45,860 based on the 2015 Q1 Q3 average, versus the 6 state region average of $44,850. Kansas also outpaced the region on a percentage basis with an increase of 2.2% versus the region percentage increase of 1.8%. Private Industry Wage Levels: Kansas experienced an increase in private industry wage levels to $44,200 in 2015 based on preliminary figures, a net increase of $670 from $43,530 in $50,000 $45,000 $40,000 $35,000 $30,000 $25,000 Per Capita Personal Income Levels Kansas 46,000 44,000 42,000 40,000 38,000 36,000 34,000 32,000 30,000 Private Industry Wage Levels, Kansas 1

4 Private Establishment Data: From 2014 to 2015, preliminary estimates show Kansas total private establishments increased from 79,516 to 80,758. Oil production was down in October 2015 from 4,431,527 bbl in October 2014, to 3,602,016 bbl in October Building permits: In December 2015, 481 building permits were issued in Kansas, up from 397 in December Unemployment: As of December 2015, unemployment in Kansas was 54,515, down from 56,557 unemployed in December 2014, a decrease of 3.6%. Unemployment Rate: Kansas leads the region and the nation with a lower unemployment rate of 3.6%. The unemployment rate for the region was 3.9%, and the U.S. was 4.8%. 85,000 80,000 75,000 Private Establishments, Kansas Monthly Production (Thousands) 5,000 4,000 3,000 2,000 1,000 Oil Production, Kansas 70, ,000 1,800 Building Permits, Kansas Unemployment Rate, Kansas 1,600 1,400 7% 1,200 1,000 6% % % 2

5 Indicators of the Kansas Economy - Population Year-over-year/annual comparison Description This sheet provides both a year-over-year and annual comparison of growth in population. The data used to create this sheet illustrates year-over-year growth by comparing current year to previous year figures. (i.e to 2014, 2014 to 2013, 2013 to 2012, etc.); and overall growth since 2005 (i.e. base year is 2005). 2% Population Growth (based on annual estimates) (Year-over-year growth) 1 9% 8% Population Growth (based on annual estimates) (Base year is 2005) 7% 6% 1% 4% 3% 2% 1% Annual Data Population Year-over-Year Growth Growth 2015 Population Estimates 2015 Annual Estimates (Base year is previous year) (Base year is 2005) Year Kansas 6-St Region U.S. Kansas 6-St Region U.S. Kansas 6-St Region U.S ,741,771 21,477, ,753, ,755,700 21,728, ,593, % % ,775,586 21,955, ,579, % % 2.2% ,797,375 22,179, ,374, % % % 2.9% ,818,747 22,393, ,006, % % 2.8% 4.3% 3.8% ,858,824 22,607, ,346, % % 4.3% 5.3% 4.6% ,869,917 22,763, ,718, % 0.7% 0.8% 4.7% % ,886,281 22,916, ,102, % 0.7% 0.8% 5.3% 6.7% 6.2% ,894,630 23,087, ,427, % 0.7% 0.7% 5.6% ,902,507 23,258, ,907, % 0.7% 0.8% 5.9% 8.3% 7.8% ,911,641 23,449, ,418, % 0.8% 0.8% 6.2% 9.2% 8.7% Source 2015 annual data - U.S. Census Bureau Region Population Kansas 2,911,641 Arkansas 2,978,204 Colorado 5,456,574 Iowa 3,123,899 Missouri 6,083,672 Nebraska 1,896,190 Oklahoma 3,911,338 6-State Region 23,449,877 U.S. 321,418,820 The U.S. Census Bureau publishes total resident population estimates and demographic components of change (births, deaths, and migration) each year. The reference date for estimates is July 1. Estimates usually are for the present and the past, while projections are estimates of the population for future dates. These estimates are developed with the assistance of the Federal State Cooperative Program for Population Estimates (FSCPE). These estimates are used in federal funding allocations, as denominators for vital rates and per capita time series, as survey controls, and in monitoring recent demographic changes. With each new issue of July 1 estimates, the estimates are revised for years back to the last census. 3

6 Indicators of the Kansas Economy - Gross State Product Year-over-year/annual comparison Description This sheet provides both a year-over-year and annual comparison of growth in gross state product. The data used to create this sheet illustrates year-over-year growth by comparing current year to previous year figures (i.e to 2014, 2014 to 2013, 2013 to 2012, etc.); and overall growth since 2004 (i.e. base year is 2005). 1 Gross State Product Growth (based on annual estimates) (Year-over-year growth) 5 4 Gross State Product Growth (based on annual estimates) (Base year is 2005) Annual Data (millions of current dollars) Gross State Product Year-over-Year Growth Growth 2015 Gross State Product Annual Estimates (Base year is previous year) (Base year is 2005) (millions of current dollars) Year Kansas 6-St Region U.S. Kansas 6-St Region U.S. Kansas 6-St Region U.S. Region Gross State Product , ,337 13,022, , ,724 13,781, % 5.3% 5.8% 6.4% 5.3% 5.8% , ,079 14,399, % 4.9% % 10.6% , ,163 14,635, % % % 12.4% , ,314 14,329, % % 14.2% ,947 1,006,795 14,869, % 3.9% 3.8% 19.7% 16.9% 14.2% ,613 1,046,866 15,416, % % 27.8% % ,441 1,089,407 16,060, % 4.1% 4.2% 31.4% % ,449 1,136,155 16,665, % 4.3% 3.8% 33.3% 31.9% ,075 1,178,793 17,316, % 3.8% 3.9% 37.6% 36.9% ,387 1,180,034 17,664, % 0.1% % Kansas Arkansas Colorado Iowa Missouri Nebraska Oklahoma 6-State Region U.S. GSP captures state economic growth, providing an overall analysis of the performance of the economy. GSP is the value added in production by the labor and property located in the state. In concept, an industry's GSP, referred to as its "value added," is equivalent to its gross output (sales or receipts and other operating income, commodity taxes, and inventory change) minus its intermediate inputs (consumption of goods and services purchased from other U.S. industries or imported.) All GSP data are displayed in millions of current dollars and are not adjusted for inflation figures are the average of Q1 and Q2 data. Source 2014 annual data, 2015 quarterly data - U.S. Department of Commerce - Bureau of Economic Analysis 145, , , , , , ,716 1,180,034 17,664,363 4

7 Indicators of the Kansas Economy Personal Income/Per Capita Personal Income Short-Term (2014 to 2015) Personal Income Estimates (PI) - (millions of dollars) - Kansas PI up $3,134 million (2.4%) 2015Q1-Q yr Chg 5-yr Chg 10-yr Chg - 6-State Region PI up $27,794 million (2.7%) Kansas 133, , ,171 91, % % - U.S. PI up $570,421 million (3.9%) 6-State Region 1,052,419 1,024, , , % 23.7% 47.4% - Kansas PCPI up $969 (2.2%) U.S. 15,253,568 14,683,147 12,459,613 10,610, % 22.4% 43.8% - 6-State Region PCPI up $780 (1.8%) Per Capita Personal Income Estimates (PCPI) - ($) - U.S. PCPI up $1,481 (3.2%) 2015Q1-Q yr Chg 5-yr Chg 10-yr Chg Kansas 45,860 44,891 39,235 33, % 16.9% 37. Long-Term (2005 to 2015) 6-State Region 44,850 44,070 37,528 32, % % - Kansas PI up $41,578 million (45.2%) U.S. 47,530 46,049 40,277 35, % % - 6-State Region PI up $338,365 million (47.4%) - U.S. PI up $4,643,248 million (43.8%) - Kansas PCPI up $12,377 (37.) - 6-State Region PCPI up $11,886 (36.1%) - U.S. PCPI up $11,626 (32.4%) Personal income is the income that is received by all persons from all sources and is reported quarterly and is seasonally adjusted at annual rates. Per capita personal income is the annual personal income divided by the population. Personal income is calculated as the sum of wage and salary disbursements, supplements to wages and salaries, proprietors' income with inventory valuation and capital consumption adjustments, rental income of persons with capital consumption adjustment, personal dividend income, personal interest income, and personal current transfer receipts, less contributions for government social insurance. The personal income of an area is the income that is received by, or on behalf of, all of the individuals who live in the area; therefore, the estimates of personal income are presented by the place of residence of the income recipients. All state estimates are in current dollars (not adjusted for inflation) $50,000 $45,000 $40,000 $35,000 $30,000 $25, % 2.2% 3.2% Per Capita Personal Income Growth 1yr, 5yr, 10yr Change 16.9% % % 1-yr Chg 5-yr Chg 10-yr Chg Per Capita Personal Income Levels Personal Income Growth 1yr, 5yr, 10yr Change 2.7% 2.4% 3.9% % 22.4% 47.4% 45.2% 43.8% 1-yr Chg 5-yr Chg 10-yr Chg Personal Income Growth Source: 2014 annual data, 2015 quarterly data U.S. Department of Commerce - Bureau of Economic Analysis 5

8 Indicators of the Kansas Economy Consumer Price Index Short-Term (2014 to 2015) Consumer Price Index (CPI) - Midwest Urban CPI down 0.1 (-0.) - U.S. City Average CPI up 1.7 (0.7%) Dec-15 Dec-14 Dec-10 Dec-05 1-yr Chg 5-yr Chg 10-yr Chg Midwest Urban % 17.4% Long-Term (2005 to 2015) U.S. City Average % 7.9% 20.2% - Midwest Urban CPI up 33.0 (17.4%) - U.S. City Average CPI up 39.7 (20.2%) Consumer Price Index Midwest Urban & U.S. City Average Consumer Price Index Growth (monthly figures) 1yr, 5yr, 10yr Change (based on Dec. figures) % 17.4% % 6.4% 7.9% yr Chg 5-yr Chg 10-yr Chg Midwest Urban U.S. City Average 200 Jan-13 Jul-13 Jan-14 Jul-14 Jan-15 Jul-15 Jan-16 Midwest Urban U.S. City The CPI program produces monthly data on changes in the prices paid by urban consumers for a representative basket of goods and services. It is the most widely used measure of inflation. The U.S. City Average is a measure of the average change over time in the prices paid by urban consumers throughout the United States for a market basket of consumer goods and services. It is adjusted to equal 100 during the base period of The U.S. City Average CPI reflects spending patterns for all urban consumers, who represent about 87 percent of the total U.S. population. The Midwest Urban Consumer Price Index is calculated in the same way as the U.S. City Average CPI, however, the Midwest CPI is limited to urban consumers within the Midwest Census region Consumer Price Index Growth Midwest Urban & U.S. City Average (based on annual average figures) Source: 2015 monthly data U.S. Department of Labor - Bureau of Labor Statistics Midwest Urban U.S. City Average 6

9 Indicators of the Kansas Economy Chicago Fed National Activity Index (CFNAI) April January 22, , Led by The declines Chicago in production- Fed National and Activity employment-related Index (CFNAI) indicators, moved up the to CFNAI 0.22 decreased in December to from in 0.36 March in from November in Two February. of the four Three broad of the categories four broad of categories indicators of that indicators make that up the make index up increased the index from decreased November, from but February, three of and the only four one categories of the four made categories negative made contributions a positive contribution to the index to in the December. index in March. The contribution from production-related indicators to the CFNAI increased to 0.26 in ####### December ####### from 0.40 in ####### November. ####### Industrial production ####### decreased ####### by ####### 0.4 percent in December after Production-related indicators contributed to the CFNAI in March, down from in February. Manufacturing production decreased 0.1 percent in March after increasing 0.9 percent in February, CFNAI and declining manufacturing by 0.9 percent capacity in utilization November. edged Moreover, down to manufacturing 76.4 percent in production March from decreased 76.6 percent by in 0.1 the percent previous in month. December Employment-related after decreasing indicators by the same contributed percentage 0.06 in to the the previous CFNAI in month. March, The down sales, from orders, in and February. inventories While category the unemployment made a contribution rate decreased of 0.02 to 7.6 to percent the CFNAI in March in December, from 7.7 percent up slightly in February, from 0.03 nonfarm in November. payrolls rose The by contribution just 88,000 in from March employment-related after increasing by indicators 268,000 in to February. the The CFNAI contribution was unchanged from the at sales, orders, in December. and inventories Nonfarm category payrolls to the rose CFNAI by 292,000 in March in was December also negative, after increasing moving down by 252,000 to 0.02 in from November, in February. and the unemployment The contribution rate from remained the consumption at 5.0 percent and in housing December. category The to contribution the CFNAI of remained the personal at 0.14 consumption in March. While and housing starts category increased to the to CFNAI 1,036,000 edged annualized down to 0.07 units in in March December from 968,000 from 0.05 in February, in November. housing Housing permits starts decreased decreased to 902,000 to annualized 1,149,000 annualized units in March units from in 939,000 December in the from previous 1,179,000 month. in November. In addition, housing permits moved down to 1,232,000 annualized units in December from 1,282,000 in the previous month. The The CFNAI CFNAI was was constructed constructed using using data data available available as as of April of January 18, , At that time, At that March time, data December for 51 of data the 85 for indicators 49 of the had 85 indicators been published. had been For all published. missing data, For all estimates missing were data, used estimates in constructing were used the index. in constructing The February the index. monthly The index November was revised monthly to index from value an initial was revised estimate to of from Revisions an initial to the estimate monthly of index can Revisions be attributed to the to monthly two main index factors: value revisions can be in attributed previously to published two main data factors: and differences between the estimates of previously unavailable data and subsequently published data. The revision to the February monthly index was due primarily to the latter. That said, the revisions in revisions in previously published data and differences between the estimates of previously unavailable data and subsequently published data. The revision to the November monthly index previously published data for February were significant. value was due primarily to the former. The performance of the U.S. economy has a major impact on the performance of the Kansas economy. Since January 1990 the CFNAI has demonstrated excellent predictive power as CFNAI values have fallen substantially prior to recent recessions, including from July 1990 to March 1991, from March 2001 to November 2001, and most recently December The Chicago Fed National Activity Index (CFNAI) is a monthly U.S. index designed to better gauge overall economic activity and inflationary pressure. The index uses 85 economic indicators from four broad categories of data: production and income; employment, unemployment and hours; personal consumption and housing; and sales, orders and inventories. A positive number indicates above average growth while a negative number indicates below average growth. Sustained CFNAI readings above zero suggest increased inflationary pressures over the coming year (0.50) (1.00) Chicago Federal Reserve National Activity Index Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sept Oct Nov Dec Chicago Federal Reserve National Activity Index January December Jan-05 Jan-06 Jan-07 Jan-08 Jan-09 Jan-10 Jan-11 Jan-12 Jan-13 Jan-14 Jan-15 Jan-16 Source: 2015 monthly data Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago 7

10 Indicators of the Kansas Economy - Building Permits Year-over-year comparison Description This sheet provides a year-over-year comparison of growth in building permits. The data used to create this sheet illustrates year-over year growth by comparing current year to previous year figures. (i.e to 2014, 2014 to 2013, 2013 to 2012, etc.) Building Permits Growth (based on December monthly figures) (Year-over-year growth based on the most recent month available) Building Permits Growth (based on annual total figures) (Year-over-year growth calculated for complete years only) Monthly Data - December 2015 Annual Total Data to 2015 Building Permits Year-over-Year Growth Building Permits Year-over-Year Growth December Monthly Figures (Base year is previous year) Annual Total Figures (Base year is previous year) Year Kansas 6-St Region U.S. Kansas 6-St Region U.S. Kansas 6-St Region U.S. Kansas 6-St Region U.S ,059 9, , , ,332 2,114, , , % -27.6% -23.4% 13, ,230 1,815, % -15.3% -14.2% ,995 74, % -27.9% -34.2% 10,107 92,792 1,368, % -24.6% ,467 39, % -50.6% ,471 63, , % -31.7% ,830 47, % 55.2% 19. 6,760 45, , % -35.9% ,641 46, % -4.9% -1.4% 4,704 47, , % 3.9% 4.8% ,177 49, % -12.7% 6.9% 4,959 49, , % 3.6% 2.9% ,627 65, % 45.6% 30.4% 6,300 67, , % ,158 75, % 7,607 78, , % % ,532 83, % 26.6% 10.6% 7,945 84,393 1,024, % 7.8% ,653 96, % 17.2% 16. 7,699 85,401 1,170, % 1.2% 14.2% Regarding building permits, a housing unit is a house, an apartment, a group of rooms or a single room intended for occupancy as separate living quarters. Separate living quarters are those in which the occupants live separately from any other individuals in the building and which have a direct access from the outside of the building or through a common hall. Source 2015 monthly data - U.S. Census Bureau 8

11 Indicators of the Kansas Economy Kansas Sales Tax Collections Short-Term (2014 to 2015) Sales Tax Collections - Kansas sales tax collections up $17,766,400 (8.6%) - $2,157,106,352 collected ytd during 2015 Oct-15 Oct-14 Oct-10 Oct-05 1-yr Chg 5-yr Chg 10-yr Chg - $2,539,208,639 collected total during 2014 Kansas $ 224,322,345 $ 206,555,945 $ 185,177,786 $ 140,471, % 21.1% 59.7% (difficult to compare short-term percentages from 2014 to 2015 due to state sales tax increase from 6.1 to 6. in July 2015) Long-Term (2005 to 2015) - Kansas sales tax collections ytd up $83,850,393 (59.7%) - $1,744,411,563 collected total during 2005 Monthly sales tax collections have trended higher as the economy has grown and two sales tax rate increases have been enacted. Annually, December typically collects the highest sales tax revenue, with January and February collecting the least. Consumers tend to delay purchases during a downturn in the economy, which can be reflected in lower sales tax collections in months preceding and during a recession. Monthly sales tax collections tend to increase as the economy improves and consumer spending increases. Tracking sales tax collections in Kansas gives insight into consumer behavior and demand. Sales tax collections can fluctuate widely from month to month. Since January 1990, state sales tax rates have changed on five occasions. In June 1992, the state sales tax rate increased from 4.2 to 4.9; in July 2002 the state sales tax rate increased to 5.3; in July 2010 the state sales tax rate increased to 6.3; in July 2013 the state sales tax rate changed to 6.1; and in July 2015 the state sales tax rate changed to 6.5. Various cities and counties in Kansas have an additional local sales tax. The entire listing of local sales tax rates is available at Millions Millions $250 $240 $230 $220 $210 $200 $190 $180 $170 $160 $150 $140 $130 $ $260 $240 $220 $200 $180 $160 $140 $120 $100 Monthly Kansas Sales Tax Revenue Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sept Oct Nov Dec Monthly Kansas Sales Tax Revenue Jan Oct 2015 $80 Jan-05 Jan-06 Jan-07 Jan-08 Jan-09 Jan-10 Jan-11 Jan-12 Jan-13 Jan-14 Jan-15 Jan-16 Source: 2015 monthly data Kansas Department of Revenue 9

12 Indicators of the Kansas Economy - Total Nonfarm Employment Year-over-year comparison Description This sheet provides a year-over-year comparison of growth in total nonfarm employment. The data illustrates year-over year growth by comparing current year to previous year figures. (i.e to 2014, 2014 to 2013, 2013 to 2012, etc.) Total Nonfarm Employment Growth (based on December monthly figures) Total Nonfarm Employment Growth (based on annual average figures) (Year-over-year growth based on the most recent month available) (Year-over-year growth calculated for complete years only) - - Monthly Data - December 2015 Average Annual Data to 2015 Total Nonfarm Employment, 1,000's Year-over-Year Growth Total Nonfarm Employment, 1,000's Year-over-Year Growth December Monthly Figures (Base year is previous year) Average Annual Figures (Base year is previous year) Year Kansas 6-St Region U.S. Kansas 6-St Region U.S. Kansas 6-St Region U.S. Kansas 6-St Region U.S , , , , , , , , , % 1.6% 1.6% 1, , , % 1.9% 1.8% , , , % 1.1% 0.8% 1, , , % 1.4% 1.1% , , , % % 1, , , % % , , , % -3.7% -3.7% 1, , , % % , , , % 0.7% 1, , , % -0.8% -0.7% , , , % 1.3% 1.6% 1, , , % % , , , % 1.6% 1.7% 1, , , % % , , , % 1.8% 1, , , % 1.4% 1.7% , , , % 1.6% 2.3% 1, , , % 1.9% , , , % 1.9% 1, , , % % The Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) publishes several monthly data series on employment by sector from its Current Employment Statistics (CES) program. Data for the series come from a monthly survey of employers. The data are subject to major and minor revisions. The series counts the number of jobs in the state or region, not the number of employed people. Hence a person with two jobs, one in the manufacturing sector and one in the service sector, would be counted in both sectors. The data series chosen for IKE are not adjusted for seasonal variation. BLS total nonfarm employment calculations does not include non-civilian employment. Current month employment figures are preliminary (p). Source 2015 monthly data - U.S. Department of Labor - Bureau of Labor Statistics 10

13 Indicators of the Kansas Economy - Private Sector Employment Year-over-year comparison Description This sheet provides a year-over-year comparison of growth in private sector employment. The data illustrates year-over year growth by comparing current year to previous year figures. (i.e to 2014, 2014 to 2013, 2013 to 2012, etc.) Private Sector Employment Growth (based on December monthly figures) Private Sector Employment Growth (based on annual average figures) (Year-over-year growth based on the most recent month available) (Year-over-year growth calculated for complete years only) Monthly Data - December 2015 Average Annual Data to 2015 Private Sector Employment, 1,000's Year-over-Year Growth Private Sector Employment, 1,000's Year-over-Year Growth December Monthly Figures (Base year is previous year) Average Annual Figures (Base year is previous year) Year Kansas 6-St Region U.S. Kansas 6-St Region U.S. Kansas 6-St Region U.S. Kansas 6-St Region U.S , , , , , , , , , % 1.6% 1.7% 1, , , % , , , % 0.8% 1, , , % 1.1% , , , % % 1, , , % 0.3% -0.9% , , , % -4.7% -4.4% 1, , , % -4.6% -5.2% , , , % 1.1% 1, , , % , , , % 1.6% 2.2% 1, , , % 1.4% 1.8% , , , % 1.9% 2.1% 1, , , % 1.8% 2.2% , , , % 1, , , % 1.6% 2.1% , , , % 1.9% 2.6% 1, , , % 1.9% 2.3% , , , % 1.3% 2.2% 1, , , % 1.6% 2.4% The Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) publishes several monthly data series on employment by sector from its Current Employment Statistics (CES) program. Data for the series come from a monthly survey of employers. The data are subject to major and minor revisions. The series counts the number of jobs in the state or region, not the number of employed people. Hence a person with two jobs, one in the manufacturing sector and one in the service sector, would be counted in both sectors. The data series chosen for IKE are not adjusted for seasonal variation. BLS private sector calculations include all nonfarm sectors, while excluding Federal, State, and Local government sectors. Current month employment figures are preliminary (p). Source 2015 monthly data - U.S. Department of Labor - Bureau of Labor Statistics 11

14 Indicators of the Kansas Economy - Manufacturing Employment Year-over-year comparison Description This sheet provides a year-over-year comparison of growth in manufacturing employment. The data illustrates year-over year growth by comparing current year to previous year figures. (i.e to 2014, 2014 to 2013, 2013 to 2012, etc.) Manufacturing Employment Growth (based on December monthly figures) (Year-over-year growth based on the most recent month available) Manufacturing Employment Growth (based on annual average figures) (Year-over-year growth calculated for complete years only) Monthly Data - December 2015 Average Annual Data to 2015 Manufacturing Employment, 1,000's Year-over-Year Growth Manfacturing Employment, 1,000's Year-over-Year Growth December Monthly Figures (Base year is previous year) Average Annual Figures (Base year is previous year) Year Kansas 6-St Region U.S. Kansas 6-St Region U.S. Kansas 6-St Region U.S. Kansas 6-St Region U.S , , , , , , % -0.9% -1.3% , , % 0.1% , , % % , , % % , , , , % -2.2% -3.4% , % -11.3% -10.8% , % -11.2% -11.6% , % 1.7% , % -2.9% -2.7% , % 1.6% 1.7% , % % , % % , % % , % 0.8% 1.1% , % 0.6% 0.8% , , % 1.9% 1.8% , , % % , % -1.1% 0.3% , % -0.1% 1.1% The Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) publishes several monthly data series on employment by sector from its Current Employment Statistics (CES) program. Data for the series come from a monthly survey of employers. The data are subject to major and minor revisions. The series counts the number of jobs in the state or region, not the number of employed people. Hence a person with two jobs, one in the manufacturing sector and one in the service sector, would be counted in both sectors. The data series chosen for IKE are not adjusted for seasonal variation. The manufacturing sector comprises establishments engaged in the mechanical, physical, or chemical transformation of materials, substances, or components into new products. Current month employment figures are preliminary (p). Source 2015 monthly data - U.S. Department of Labor - Bureau of Labor Statistics 12

15 Indicators of the Kansas Economy - Service Employment Year-over-year comparison Description This sheet provides a year-over-year comparison of growth in service employment. The data illustrates year-over year growth by comparing current year to previous year figures. (i.e to 2014, 2014 to 2013, 2013 to 2012, etc.) Service Employment Growth (based on December monthly figures) Service Employment Growth (based on annual average figures) (Year-over-year growth based on the most recent month available) (Year-over-year growth calculated for complete years only) - - Monthly Data - December 2015 Average Annual Data to 2015 Service Employment, 1,000's Year-over-Year Growth Service Employment, 1,000's Year-over-Year Growth December Monthly Figures (Base year is previous year) Average Annual Figures (Base year is previous year) Year Kansas 6-St Region U.S. Kansas 6-St Region U.S. Kansas 6-St Region U.S. Kansas 6-St Region U.S , , , , , , % % , , % , , % 1.4% 1.4% , , % 1.8% 1.7% , , % -2.2% , , % -0.2% , , % -2.6% -2.6% , , % -2.7% -3.4% , , % 1.3% , , % -0.2% -0.1% , , % , , % 1.3% 1.9% , , % 1.9% 2.2% , , % 1.7% 2.2% , , % 1.4% 2.2% , , % 1.6% 2.2% , , % 1.6% , , % 1.7% 2.2% , , % 1.4% 2.4% , , % 1.7% 2.6% The Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) publishes several monthly data series on employment by sector from its Current Employment Statistics (CES) program. Data for the series come from a monthly survey of employers. The data are subject to major and minor revisions. The series counts the number of jobs in the state or region, not the number of employed people. Hence a person with two jobs, one in the manufacturing sector and one in the service sector, would be counted in both sectors. The data series chosen for IKE are not adjusted for seasonal variation. While BLS service sector calculations include government, for clarification purposes this page only includes the following BLS sectors: trade, transportation, and utilities; information; finance; professional and business; education and health; leisure and hospitality; and other services. Current month employment figures are preliminary (p). Source 2015 monthly data - U.S. Department of Labor - Bureau of Labor Statistics 13

16 Indicators of the Kansas Economy - Public Sector Employment Year-over-year comparison Description This sheet provides a year-over-year comparison of growth in public sector employment. The data illustrates year-over year growth by comparing current year to previous year figures. (i.e to 2014, 2014 to 2013, 2013 to 2012, etc.) Public Sector Employment Growth (based on December monthly figures) Public Sector Employment Growth (based on annual average figures) (Year-over-year growth based on the most recent month available) (Year-over-year growth calculated for complete years only) - - Monthly Data - December 2015 Average Annual Data to 2015 Public Sector Employment, 1,000's Year-over-Year Growth Public Sector Employment, 1,000's Year-over-Year Growth December Monthly Figures (Base year is previous year) Average Annual Figures (Base year is previous year) Year Kansas 6-St Region U.S. Kansas 6-St Region U.S. Kansas 6-St Region U.S. Kansas 6-St Region U.S , , , , , , , , % 0.8% , , % 1.4% 1.3% , , % 1.1% , , % 1.8% 0.8% , , % % , , % % , , % 0.2% , , % , , % % , , % % , , % -0.9% -1.8% , , % -0.2% , , % -0.8% , , % 0.1% -0.3% , , % -0.3% , , % , , % 0.1% , , % 0.4% , , % 0.4% The Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) publishes several monthly data series on employment by sector from its Current Employment Statistics (CES) program. Data for the series come from a monthly survey of employers. The data are subject to major and minor revisions. The series count the number of jobs in the state or region, not the number of employed people. Hence a person with two jobs, one in the public sector and one in retail, would be counted in both sectors. The data series chosen for this page are not adjusted for seasonal variation; hence the short term employment graph shows substantial decreases in July and August when many public school personnel are off the job. This page includes Federal, State, and Local Government figures. Current month employment figures are preliminary (p). Source 2015 monthly data - U.S. Department of Labor - Bureau of Labor Statistics 14

17 Indicators of the Kansas Economy - Unemployment Rate Year-over-year comparison Description This sheet provides a year-over-year comparison of growth in unemployment rate. The data illustrates year-over year growth by comparing current year to previous year figures. (i.e to 2014, 2014 to 2013, 2013 to 2012, etc.) Unemployment Rate Growth (based on December monthly figures) (Year-over-year growth based on the most recent month available) Unemployment Rate Growth (based on annual average figures) (Year-over-year growth calculated for complete years only) - - Monthly Data - December 2015 Average Annual Data to 2015 Unemployment Rate Year-over-Year Growth Unemployment Rate Year-over-Year Growth December Monthly Figures (Base year is previous year) Average Annual Figures (Base year is previous year) Year Kansas 6-St Region U.S. Kansas 6-St Region U.S. Kansas 6-St Region U.S. Kansas 6-St Region U.S % % % 5.1% % 4.1% 4.3% -0.4% -0.4% -0.3% 4.4% 4.3% 4.6% -0.6% % 4.3% 4.8% 0.2% 0.2% % 4.3% 4.6% -0.2% % 7.1% 0.9% 1.6% 2.3% 4.6% 4.9% 5.8% 0.4% 0.6% 1.2% % 7.7% 9.7% 1.8% 1.9% 2.6% 6.9% 7.4% 9.3% 2.3% % 7.6% 9.1% -0.4% -0.1% -0.6% 7.1% 7.9% 9.6% 0.2% % % 6.7% 8.3% -0.7% -0.9% -0.8% % 8.9% -0.6% -0.6% -0.7% % 6.2% 7.6% % 5.8% 6.4% 8.1% -0.7% -0.8% -0.8% % % -0.7% -1.1% 5.3% 6.1% 7.4% % -0.7% % 4.4% 5.4% -0.6% -1.1% -1.1% % 6.2% -0.8% -0.9% -1.2% % 3.9% 4.8% -0.2% % 4.2% 4.4% 5.3% -0.3% -0.7% -0.9% The unemployment rate represents the number unemployed as a percent of the labor force. As defined in the Current Population Survey, unemployed persons are persons aged 16 years and older who had no employment during the reference week, were available for work, except for temporary illness, and had made specific efforts to find employment sometime during the 4-week period ending with the reference week. Persons who were waiting to be recalled to a job from which they had been laid off need not have been looking for work to be classified as unemployed. The data series chosen for IKE are not adjusted for seasonal variation. Source 2015 monthly data - U.S. Department of Labor - Bureau of Labor Statistics 15

18 Indicators of the Kansas Economy Initial Claims for Unemployment Short-Term (2014 to 2015) Initial Claims for Unemployment - Kansas initial claims down 933 (-5.) (all employees) - 6-State Region initial claims down 4,179 (-3.4%) Dec-15 Dec-14 Dec-10 Dec-05 1-yr Chg 5-yr Chg 10-yr Chg - U.S. initial claims down 121,117 (-7.) Kansas 15,927 16,860 21,004 16, % -3.2% 6-State Region 118, , , , % -29.7% -8.6% Long-Term (2005 to 2015) U.S. 1,617,232 1,738,349 2,382,661 1,820, % -11.2% - Kansas initial claims down 529 (-3.2%) - 6-State Region initial claims down 11,204 (-8.6%) - U.S. intial claims down 203,736 (-11.2%) Initial Claims for Unemployment Growth 1yr, 5yr, 10yr Change (based on Dec. figures) 40,000 35,000 30,000 25,000 20,000 15,000 10,000 5,000 - Initial Claims for Unemployment in Kansas Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sept Oct Nov Dec Initial claims for unemployment count the number of applications of workers who separated from their jobs and who wish to begin unemployment compensation or to extend the period of eligibility. The data are collected by the U.S. Department of Labor, Employment and Training Administration. The data produced by this agency are not seasonally adjusted. Initial claims for unemployment typically rise as the economy moves into recession and fall as the economy recovers. Initial claims for unemployment traditionally peak in the winter months of November, December, and January % % -29.7% -32.1% -3.2% Initial Claims For Unemployment Growth (based on annual average figures) -8.6% 1-yr Chg 5-yr Chg 10-yr Chg -11.2% Source: 2015 monthly data U.S. Department of Labor - Employment and Training Administration 16

19 Indicators of the Kansas Economy Private Industry Wage Levels Short-Term (2014 to 2015) Private Industry Wage Levels - Kansas private industry wage level up $670 (1.) (average annual wages, all employees, all private establishments) - 6-State Region private industry wage level up $385 (0.9%) 2015 (p) yr Chg 5-yr Chg 10-yr Chg - U.S. private industry wage level up $1,094 (2.1%) Kansas $ 44,200 $ 43,530 $ 39,431 $ 34, % State Region $ 44,417 $ 44,032 $ 39,451 $ 34, % 12.6% 30.1% Long-Term (2005 to 2015) U.S. $ 52,390 $ 51,296 $ 46,455 $ 40, % 12.8% 29.3% - Kansas private industry wage level up $9,935 (29.) - 6-State Region private industry wage level up $10,285 (30.1%) - U.S. private industry wage level up $11,885 (29.3%) Private Industry Wage Growth 1yr, 5yr, 10yr Change 2015 Private Industry Wage Levels (average annual wages, all employees, all private establishments) State Annual Wage Kansas $ 44,200 Arkansas $ 39,806 Colorado $ 54,210 Iowa $ 42,276 Missouri $ 45,084 Nebraska $ 41,158 Oklahoma $ 43,966 The Quarterly Census of Employment and Wages Program is a cooperative program involving the Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) of the U.S. Department of Labor and the State Employment Security Agencies (SESAs). The QCEW program produces a comprehensive tabulation of employment and wage information for workers covered by State unemployment insurance (UI) laws and Federal workers covered by the Unemployment Compensation for Federal Employees (UCFE) program. Private Industry wage levels were calculated using QCEW program data. Wage levels were calculated as an average of all private industries and establishments data is based on 2015 Q1-Q2 average weekly data % 2.1% 12.1% 12.6% 12.8% % 1-yr Chg 5-yr Chg 10-yr Chg Private Industry Wage Growth % Source: 2014 annual data, 2015 Q1-Q2 weekly data U.S. Department of Labor - Bureau of Labor Statistics 17

20 Indicators of the Kansas Economy Private Establishment Data Short-Term (2014 to 2015) Private Establishment Data - Kansas total establishments up 1,242 (1.6%) (total private establishments, all employee sizes) - 6-State Region total establishments up 18,642 (2.7%) 2015 (p) yr Chg 5-yr Chg 10-yr Chg - U.S. total establishments up 185,777 (2.1%) Kansas 80,758 79,516 81,318 76, % -0.7% 5.3% 6-State Region 706, , , , % % Long-Term (2005 to 2015) U.S. 9,180,427 8,994,650 8,628,774 8,203, % 6.4% 11.9% - Kansas total establishments up 4,072 (5.3%) - 6-State Region total establishments up 84,886 (13.7%) - U.S. total establishments up 977,234 (11.9%) Kansas Private Establishment Data (total private establishments, by employee size) Year ,480 15,283 2,031 1, ,502 15,425 2,053 1, ,837 15,682 2,147 1, ,870 15,781 2,180 1, ,598 16,042 2,194 1, (p) 60,610 16,266 2,183 1,699 1-yr Chg 1.7% 1.4% yr Chg % (p) - preliminary According to the U.S. Small Business Administration, small businesses provide approximately 75 percent of the net new jobs added to the economy and employ 50.1 percent of the private work force. This data tracks the number of business establishments by employee size to help understand what size businesses are growing. The Quarterly Census of Employment and Wages (QCEW) program includes data on the number of establishments, monthly employment, and quarterly wages, by NAICS industry, by county and by ownership sector, for the entire United States. This variable includes private establishments only, as determined by the QCEW program % 4.8% 2.7% 2.1% Private Establishment Growth 1 yr, 5yr, 10yr Change -0.7% % 5.3% 13.7% 1-yr Chg 5-yr Chg 10-yr Chg 15.2% Private Establishment Growth by Employee Size (p) 13.1% 8.7% 8.3% % 7.6% 7.7% 11.9% 7.1% 6.3% 6.1% Source: 2015 annual data U.S. Department of Labor - Bureau of Labor Statistics Kansas Department of Labor - Labor Market Information 18

21 Indicators of the Kansas Economy USDA Farm and Agriculture Data January 29, 2016 Agricultural Prices U.S. The December Prices Received Index for agricultural production is 90 percent of its 2011 base, down 2.2 percent from the November index and 11 percent below the December 2014 index. Feed grain: The December index, at 62, is up 3.3 percent from November but is 3.1 percent below a year ago. The corn price, at $3.65 per bushel, is up 5 cents from last month but is down 14 cents from December At $5.76 per cwt, sorghum grain is 7 cents below November and $1.57 lower than December a year earlier. Food grain: At 71, the index for December is 2.7 percent lower than the previous month and is 18 percent below a year earlier. The December price for all wheat, at $4.71 per bushel, is down 15 cents from November and is $1.43 below December Oilseed: At 70, the index for December is up 1.4 percent from November but 15 percent lower than December The soybean price, at $8.76 per bushel, increased 8 cents from November but is $1.54 below December a year earlier. Other crop: The December index, at 81, is up 1.3 percent from November but is 2.4 percent below December The all hay price, at $142 per ton, is unchanged from November but $14.00 lower than December Livestock Production: The index for December, at 97, is down 7.6 percent from November and 24 percent lower than December a year earlier. Compared with a year ago, prices for cattle, hogs, broilers, milk, market eggs, and calves are down but prices are higher for turkeys. Meat animal: At 96, the December index is down 7.7 percent from November and 28 percent lower than a year earlier. At $42.80 per cwt, the December hog price is down $3.10 from November and $21.50 lower than a year earlier. The December beef cattle price of $122 per cwt is down $7.00 from the previous month and $42.00 lower than December Dairy: The index for December, at 86, is down 5.5 percent from November and 15 percent lower than December a year earlier. The December all milk price of $17.20 per cwt is down $1.00 from November and $3.20 less than December $/cwt $350 $300 $250 $200 $150 $100 $50 $- Steer/Heifer U.S. Livestock Prices All Beef Cattle Calves Cows Hogs $/bu $18 $16 $14 $12 $10 $8 $6 $4 $2 $- U.S. Crop Prices Soybeans Wheat Corn Source: 2015 monthly data United States Department of Agriculture - NASS National Drought Mitigation Center

22 Indicators of the Kansas Economy Kansas Farm Management Association Data Short-Term (2014) KFMA Average Net Farm Income by Region - 1,175 farms reported farm operation data to KFMA - KFMA farms averaged $613,243 in value of farm production Region NW NC NE SW SC SE Avg. All Assn. - KFMA farms averaged $491,053 in total farm expense 2013 $ 48,966 $ 137,633 $ 160,350 $ 105,061 $ 151,464 $ 162,281 $ 140,356 - KFMA average net farm income was $122, $ 108,532 $ 102,508 $ 149,476 $ 56,101 $ 52,996 $ 183,899 $ 122,190 - SE region had the highest net farm income at $183,899 5-yr avg $ 243,068 $ 122,802 $ 155,547 $ 99,684 $ 121,552 $ 156,876 $ 149,114 - SC region had the lowest net farm income at $52, yr avg $ 185,078 $ 98,113 $ 126,401 $ 82,155 $ 101,631 $ 125,323 $ 119,558 Long-Term (2004 to 2014) - KFMA average net farm income varies widely from year to year - 5-yr average net farm income was $149, yr average net farm income was $119,558 The Kansas Farm Management Association (KFMA) program is one of the largest publicly funded farm management programs in the U.S. With more than 80 years of experience serving producers, the Kansas Farm Management Association (KFMA) maintains a long term commitment to Kansas agriculture. The goals of the KFMA program are to provide each member with information about business and family costs to improve farm business organization, farm business decisions, and farm profitability; and minimize risk. Through on-farm visits, whole-farm analysis, and other educational programs, Association Economists assist producers in developing sound farm accounting systems; improving decision making; comparing performance with similar farms; and integrating tax planning, marketing, and asset investment strategies. The KFMA program is organized into six regional associations. $200,000 $175,000 $150,000 $125,000 $100,000 $75,000 $50,000 $25,000 $- $180,000 $160,000 $140,000 $120,000 $100,000 $80,000 $60,000 $40,000 $20,000 $- $108,532 $102, Kansas Farm Management Association Average Net Farm Income by Region $149,476 $56,101 $52,996 $183,899 $122,190 NW NC NE SW SC SE Avg. All Assn. $62,604 $56,131 $46,930 Kansas Farm Management Association Average Net Farm Income $115,312 $124,617 $107,021 $157,299 $166,375 $159,352 $140,356 $122, Source: 2014 annual data Kansas State University - Kansas Farm Management Association 20