West Michigan Economy Dr. Paul Isely

Transcription

1 West Michigan Economy 2017 Dr. Paul Isely

2 How I did last year West Michigan Employment Prediction: 2.6% to 3.0% December 2015 December 2016 Actual: 2.4% November November 2016* US GDP Growth Prediction: 2.1% 2016 Actual: 1.9% - 2.1% with 3 quarters known *CES estimates include Barry, Kent, Montcalm, Muskegon, Ottawa

3 The US Economy To understand the local economy, start with the US economy What is the strength for 2017? When is the next recession expected?

4 GDP GROWTH Consensus Forecasts 2017 Wall Street Journal Survey (Dec) 2.4% Livingston Survey (Dec) 2.3% RSQE Model (University of Michigan Nov) 2.3% Federal Open Market Committee (Dec) 2.2% Simple polynomial forecast 1.8%

5 Billions of Dollars (2009) 16,000 Recession Relationship to Potential GDP Source: BEA, CBO, and Isely 14,000 12,000 10,000 8,000 6,000 4,000 REAL GDP POTENTIAL

6 Billions of Dollars (2009) When will REAL GDP cross POTENTIAL GDP? 18,500 18,000 17,500 17,000 16,500 16,000 15,500 15,000 14,500 14, POTENTIAL REAL GDP Poly. (REAL GDP) Source: BEA, CBO, and Isely

7 Year of the Consumer Median real wage if you have a full time job at a Record High Employment Population Ratio slowly growing Still low compared to last 30 years High compared to the rest of the 20 th century Quit rates almost back to Normal U-6 continues to drop Currently 9.3 Average of 1994 to 2007 is 8.9 Debt Service compared to income record low

8 The US Story GDP Growth in 2016 projected to be 2.0 to 2.4% Employment Growth Slowing Recession probability starts growing late in 2018 with a high probability it will occur before the end of 2020.

9 The West Michigan Economy Still Manufacturing

10 The Slowdown of 2016

11 Annual Percent Change Dec 2008 Dec 2009 Dec 2010 Dec 2011 Dec 2012 Dec 2013 Dec 2014 Dec KOMA Employment Growth Source: BLS and Isely KOMA 3MMA KOMA 12MMA

12 WEST MICHIGAN ISM INDEX Source: GVSU Supply Chain JAN MAR MAY JULY SEP NOV 16 JAN SALES INDEX Linear (SALES INDEX) MAR MAY JULY SEP NOV EMPLOYMENT INDEX

13 <- - Worse Than Year Before Better --> 20% Michigan Retail Index -- SALES Year over Year Change 12 MMA Source: Michigan Retail Association And Isely 15% 10% 5% 0% Current Trend: -5% -10% -15% 2013 January2014 January2015 January2016 January

14 Muskegon

15 Annual Percentage Change Dec 2001 Dec 2002 Dec 2003 Dec 2004 Dec 2005 Dec 2006 Dec 2007 Dec 2008 Dec 2009 Dec 2010 Dec 2011 Dec 2012 Dec 2013 Dec 2014 Dec 2015 Employment Growth - Muskegon County Muskegon County 3MMA Muskegon County 12MMA Source: BLS and Isely

16 What are people in Muskegon Doing? Industry November Information 800 Financial activities 1900 Mining, Logging and Construction 2200 Other services 2300 Professional and business services 4100 Leisure and hospitality 6900 Government 7700 Education and health services Trade, transportation, and utilities Manufacturing Source: BLS

17 5000 November 2010 to November 2016 Employment Change Muskegon County

18 Weekly Wages in KOMA Source: BLS QCEW 2016 Increase Since 2000 Adjusted for Inflation Manufacturing $1,143 36% -3% Health Care $865 54% 10% Retail Trade $551 42% 2%

19 POTENTIAL

20 2,000 1,800 1,600 1,400 1,200 1, Jobs In Young Firms Muskegon County (55% of the Job Gains in 2014 from New Firms) 0-1 Years 2-3 Years 4-5 Years Source: On the Map

21 Muskegon Worker Flows Source: On The Map

22 Excess Workers in Muskegon County Live - Work 2014 Live - Work 2004 Agriculture, Forestry, Fishing and Hunting Construction Manufacturing 4,721 5,289 Wholesale Trade Retail Trade Transportation and Warehousing Finance and Insurance Real Estate and Rental and Leasing Professional, Scientific, and Technical Services Management of Companies and Enterprises Administration & Support 2, Educational Services Health Care and Social Assistance Accommodation and Food Services Other Services Public Administration

23 Housing What s up with all the building?

24 Index Year 2000 = Housing Price Index Muskegon Index Whole County Muskegon City

25 Housing Trends in Grand Rapids Area

26 10, ,000-20,000-30,000-40,000-50,000-60,000-70,000-80,000 Net Migration Kent, Ottawa, Muskegon and Allegan (KOMA) and Michigan MI KOMA Source: Census

27 Hundreds of Permits Single Family Building Permits - KOMA Source: Census

28 Looking Forward to 2017 KOMA

29 100 West Michigan Confidence Index Winter Government

30 50% Anticipated Change in Sales for 2017 Compared to Expectations in 2015 and % 30% 20% 10% 0% less than 0% from 0% to 1% from 1.01% to 2% from 2.01% to 3% more than 3%

31 50% Anticipated Change in Employment for 2017 Compared to Expectation in 2015 and % 30% 20% 10% 0% less than 0% from 0% to 1% from 1.01% to 2% from 2.01% to 3% more than 3%

32 70.0% 60.0% 50.0% 40.0% 30.0% 20.0% 10.0% 0.0% Anticipated Change in Exports for 2017 Compared to Expectations in 2015 and 2016 Less than 0% 0% to 4.99% % % 15% or more

33 Possible Problems?

34 Questions?