2015 and 2016 Economic Outlook for Calhoun County

Transcription

1 2015 and 2016 Economic Outlook for Calhoun County George A. Erickcek Brian Pittelko W.E. Upjohn Institute for Employment Research January 15, 2015

2 Thanks to Our Sponsors 2

3 Outline The national economy is speeding forward on $2.00 per gallon gasoline and low interest rates Robust car and truck sales are fueling Michigan s economy Calhoun County had a good year in 2014 Forecast: continued employment growth 3

4 GDP Grew by a Robust 5.0 Percent in the Third Quarter, and Forecasters Are Promising Continued Growth 6 Gross Domestic Product and Nonfarm Employment 1,500 Percentage change in GDP Employment gains have been outstanding, more than 800,000 jobs in the fourth quarter. Forecast 1, ,000-1,500-2,000 Employment change (000s) Q1 10 Q1 11 Q1 12 Q1 13 Q1 14 Q1 15 Q1 16 Q1 GDP Nonfarm employment -2,500 Source: BLS, BEA, University of Michigan RSQE. 4

5 Employment Conditions Have Improved; the Number of Job Seekers Per Opening Has Dropped Below 2 6,000 U.S. Job Openings and New Hires 8 5,000 Job openings at end of month 7 Thousands (000s) 4,000 3,000 2,000 1,000 Job seekers per opening Unemployed / job openings Source: BLS. 5

6 Prices and Interest Rates Remain Low: Prices may be too low but who is complaining about $2.00 per gallon gas? 6.0 Interest Rates and Inflation Annual percentage rate year Treasury bill 12-month change in CPI-U 30-year mortgages 3-month Treasury bill Source: Federal Reserve, BLS. 6

7 Consumer Confidence Is Rising Despite Stagnant Wages; However, Other Polls Have Not Been as Positive Real Hourly Earnings and Consumer Confidence $ Per hour 2014 dollars Consumer Confidence Index Real hourly earnings Consumer confidence Source: Conference Board and BLS. 7

8 So Let s Sum Up The national economy was surprisingly strong in the third quarter and continued growth is forecasted Inflation and interest rates are low and expected to stay low. Gas prices may stay low for the year. National employment is on the rise but wages remain flat The Fed has stopped its purchasing of bonds but will likely keep interest rates low On the negative side, the nation is standing alone in the global economy 8

9 Michigan Forecast Strong auto sales are pushing the state forward and most are forecasting that auto sales will remain high until at least 2017 The state s unemployment is down to prerecession levels but still higher than the nation s Employment growth is expected in 2015 and

10 In 2014, State Employers Added Nearly 30,000 Workers Manufacturing Mining, logging, const. Employment Change, 2013 to 2014 (in thousands) Wholesale Transport. and util. Retail If you are will to accept a 2.8 manufacturing employment multiplier, manufacturers are driving the entire state economy. Information Financial activities Prof. and business Leisure and hospitality Education and health Other services Government Source: BLS CES. 10

11 Auto Sales Continue to Pick Up and Are Forecast to Drive Past 16 Million Units in 2015 and Strong sales years are expected in 2015 and 2016; and what about $2.00 per gal gas? Source: BEA. 11

12 The State s Unemployment Rate Is Back to Prerecession Levels and Now Stands at 7.1 Percent 16 Unemployment Rate Percent of labor force Source: BLS LAUS. 12

13 Latest University of Michigan Employment Forecast for the State Is Very Bullish Employment forecast: ,250 jobs ,140 jobs Source: University of Michigan RSQE Nov,

14 Calhoun County 2014 was a strong year for manufacturing employment growth The county s unemployment rate is down to 5.3 percent (seasonally unadjusted) The county s overall economic performance was similar to its peers Why isn t the county s service sector doing better? Forecast for 2015 and Good news 14

15 Manufacturers Are Clearly Driving the County Economy by Itself Employment Change, 2013 to Estimated 2014 Total Construction Manufacturing Retail Financial Business and professional Education and health Leisure and hospitality Other services Government Source: BLS CES. 15

16 Again, the Employment Gains in Manufacturing More than Offset Losses in Government 800 Employment Change, 2013 to Estimated Manufacturing Financial Mining, logging, and const. Trade, transport., and util. Education and health Prof. and business Leisure and hospitality Other services Government Source: BLS CES. 16

17 Auto Suppliers Are Supplying the Growth Manufacturing Employment Change, Q to Q Transportation Printing Chemical Plastics and rubber Nonmetallic mineral Fabricated metal Primary metal Machinery Elec. equip Misc Food ,000 Source: BLS QCEW. 17

18 The County s Unemployment Rate is Down to the 2002 level and. 14 Unemployment Rate for Calhoun County Source: BLS LAUS and Upjohn Institute. 18

19 It Is for the Right Reasons The Unemployed and Those Who Had Previously Given up Are Finding Jobs Year November-to-November Change, Calhoun County Labor Force Change Employment Change Unemployment Change , , ,018 2,082-1,243 Source: MI Labor Market Indicators, Local Area Unemployment Statistics. 19

20 Calhoun County Has Bounced Back from the Recession in Terms of Job Growth 110 Total Employment Index (2000=100) The county lost 3,800 jobs during the recession and 85 gained 4,300 jobs, so far in the 80 recovery United States Michigan Calhoun County Source: BLS LAUS and Upjohn Institute. 20

21 The County s Service Sector Has Also Regained Its Losses; However at a Much Slower Pace than the Nation Private Services Employment Index (2000=100) United States Michigan Calhoun County Source: BLS LAUS and Upjohn Institute. 21

22 Outstanding Manufacturing Growth 105 Manufacturing Employment Index (2000=100) United States Michigan Calhoun County Source: BLS LAUS and Upjohn Institute. 22

23 Not Surprising, Manufacturers Had the Largest Increase in Job Postings for the Year Manufacturing Retail trade Hospitality Educational services Transport. and warehouse Public administration Arts, ent., and rec. Real estate Other services Construction Information Management Wholesale trade Agriculture Mining Finance Prof., sci., and tech. Admin. and support Health care Job Posting Change, 2013 to 2014, All Industries Source: BurningGlass Labor Insight. 23

24 However for Individual Occupations, the Increase in Job Postings Is More Diversified Job Posting Change, 2013 to 2014, All Occupations Sales and related Food prep. and serving Transportation Installation, maintenance, and repair Production Office and admin. Education Arts, design, ent., etc. Personal care and service Cleaning and maintenance Construction Architecture and eng. Health care support Computer and mathematical Community and social services Life, physical, and social science Protective service Management Business and financial Health care Source: BurningGlass Labor Insight. 24

25 Comparison Analysis Comparison Areas: Altoona, PA Jackson, MI Johnstown, PA Lebanon, PA Mansfield, OH Monroe, MI Muncie, IN Springfield, OH Wausau, WI Williamsport, PA 25

26 Comparison Criteria All one-county metropolitan areas Within Midwest region Not college town or state capitol All within 15% population of Calhoun County (plus Jackson) 26

27 Par for the Course Percent Change in Total Employment, Jan Nov 2013 through Jan Nov 2014 Battle Creek, MI Comparison Average Muncie, IN Springfield, OH Williamsport, PA Monroe, MI Lebanon, PA Altoona, PA Mansfield, OH Wausau, WI Johnstown, PA Jackson, MI -0.2% -0.5% 0.6% 0.3% 0.1% 1.3% 1.1% 1.3% 2.4% 2.1% 1.8% 3.3% -1.0% -0.5% 0.0% 0.5% 1.0% 1.5% 2.0% 2.5% 3.0% 3.5% Source: BLS. 27

28 Again, Right in the Pack Average Unemployment Rate, Jan Nov 2014 Battle Creek, MI Comparison Average Jackson, MI Muncie, IN Monroe, MI Johnstown, PA Mansfield, OH Williamsport, PA Wausau, WI Altoona, PA Springfield, OH Lebanon, PA Source: BLS.

29 Clearly, the County s Manufacturing Growth Is Uniquely Strong Percent Change in Manufacturing Employment, Jan Nov 2013 through Jan Nov 2014 Battle Creek, MI Comparison Average Jackson, MI Monroe, MI Springfield, OH Wausau, WI Williamsport, PA Altoona, PA Lebanon, PA Mansfield, OH Muncie, IN Johnstown, PA -5.3% -0.8% -0.5% -0.8% -1.5% -1.8% -2.2% -2.7% 0.8% 3.3% 2.7% 5.6% -6% -4% -2% 0% 2% 4% 6% 8% Source: BLS. 29

30 This Is the Challenge and Clearly Jackson Is Not the Problem Percent Change in Service-Providing Employment, Jan Nov 2013 through Jan Nov 2014 Battle Creek, MI Comparison Average Muncie, IN Springfield, OH Lebanon, PA Williamsport, PA Altoona, PA Mansfield, OH Wausau, WI Johnstown, PA Monroe, MI Jackson, MI -1.4% -0.2% -0.1% -0.2% 0.9% 1.6% 1.3% 0.8% 0.5% 0.3% 2.3% 4.1% -2.0% -1.0% 0.0% 1.0% 2.0% 3.0% 4.0% 5.0% Source: BLS. 30

31 To Me, This Is a Welcome Surprise and Warrants Further Research Self-Employed Professional, Scientific Technical Employed Battle Creek, MI Comparison Average Jackson, MI Altoona, PA Mansfield, OH Monroe, MI Lebanon, PA Muncie, IN Springfield, OH Williamsport, PA Wausau, WI Johnstown, PA 17.4% 18.4% 18.3% 18.1% 17.8% 17.0% 16.7% 16.3% 15.3% 14.5% 22.1% 21.8% 0% 5% 10% 15% 20% 25% Percent of industry Source: ACS

32 Given KCC, It Is Not Surprising that Battle Creek Is Similar to the Comparison MSAs Associate s Degree or Higher, Age Battle Creek, MI Comparison Average Wausau, WI Johnstown, PA Williamsport, PA Monroe, MI Springfield, OH Mansfield, OH Lebanon, PA Altoona, PA Jackson, MI Muncie, IN 8.9% 9.4% 11.7% 10.7% 10.4% 9.1% 8.8% 8.3% 7.3% 7.1% 5.1% 16.0% 0% 5% 10% 15% 20% 25% 30% Percent of age group Source: ACS

33 However, for Bachelor Degrees the County Still Lags Behind Nationwide, It Is 33 Percent Bachelor s Degree or Higher, Age Battle Creek, MI Comparison Average Muncie, IN Altoona, PA Johnstown, PA Wausau, WI Williamsport, PA Lebanon, PA Monroe, MI Springfield, OH Jackson, MI Mansfield, OH 18.7% 22.5% 27.8% 27.5% 25.7% 25.4% 23.7% 21.9% 21.3% 18.5% 18.0% 15.5% 0% 5% 10% 15% 20% 25% 30% Percent of age group Source: ACS

34 Exploring Reasons Why Employment Trends in Services Are So Lackluster Services depend upon the population growth and current building permit data suggests little to no growth Housing prices show no new demand for home purchases More than 50 percent of people working in the Battle Creek area commute from outside the region 34

35 A Serious Factor in Explaining the Lack of Service Employment Growth Construction Permits Issued, Calhoun County Total, all structure types Source: U.S. Census. Single-family houses Year to date, November

36 Price Trends Strongly Suggest There Is Simply a Lack of Demand For New Housing FHFA Housing Price Index (1995=100) Source: FHFA Housing Index. 36

37 About 57 Percent of Workers in the Battle Creek Area Commute from Outside Area includes Battle Creek, Springfield, Bedford, Pennfield, and Emmett Townships Source: Census On the Map

38 The Percent of Workers Commuting into the Area Is Approximately the Same Regardless of Age or Income Commuters Pct. of Income Commuters Pct. of Age Percent of workers Less than $1,250 $1,250 to $3,333 $3,333 and higher 0 29 and younger 30 to and over Source: Census On the Map

39 Before Turning to the Forecast I Want to Give Special Thanks to the Participants of the Annual Forecasting Advisory Group for Accepting the Errors of Last Year s Forecast 39

40 Review of Last Year s Forecast: Not Bad Because of Offsetting Errors Percent change in employment 6.0% 5.0% 4.0% 3.0% 2.0% 1.0% 0.0% -1.0% -2.0% -3.0% 2014 Employment Growth 4.8% 2.4% 1.1% 1.5% 1.6% 0.5% -0.3% -2.6% Total Goods producing Service providing Government Current estimate Forecasted 40

41 Battle Creek MSA Employment Forecast for 2015 and % 5.0% 4.0% 3.0% 2.0% 1.0% 0.0% -1.0% -2.0% -3.0% Annual Percent Change in Employment 4.8% 4.4% 2.7% 2.1% 1.6% 1.1% 1.8% 1.7% 0.5% -0.3%-0.1% -2.6% Total Goods producing Service providing Government

42 So What Keeps Me up at Night? The global economy The U.S. is the only game on the planet. Can we do it alone? Lack of improvement in income equality Polls suggest that households are more pessimistic not only about their economic future, but for their kids as well The continued mystery of why employment gains in manufacturing have a very small impact on service employment in Battle Creek 42

43 2015 and 2016 Economic Outlook for Calhoun County George A. Erickcek Brian Pittelko W.E. Upjohn Institute for Employment Research January 15, 2015