Forecast for Muskegon County was a great year!

Transcription

1 Forecast for Muskegon County 2013 was a great year! George A. Erickcek Brian Pittelko W.E. Upjohn Institute for Employment Research January 31, 2014

2 A special thanks to: 1

3 Outline Most think that the economy is stronger than it looks only 74,000 new jobs in December The state economy continues to be driven by the car industry Muskegon County had a great year Forecast: more employment growth 2

4 GDP grew by 3.2 percent in the fourth quarter (surprising me) and the forecast is positive Percent change in GDP (average annual rate) The consumer returned and our exports rocked. Residential construction was off

5 Capacity utilization has not yet fully recovered but business confidence is up 70 Purchasing Managers Index for Manufacturing and Industrial Capacity Utilization 85.0 PMI (>50 = expansion; <50 = contraction) Manufacturing PMI Capacity utilization Percent utilization (%) 4

6 Employment conditions have improved; however, the number of job seekers per opening is still double what it was in

7 Employment has been slow to recover Employment Index (100 = Trough) Current Months from the trough 6

8 Yes, we are coming off a bad one Recession Employment Loss in Recession Employment Gains in Expansion Net Change Current -7,464 6,299-1, ,593 4,933 3, ,242 9,287 8, months since the trough and we are still off more than a million jobs in the nation. 7

9 Unemployment is falling, but there are still too many long-term unemployed workers Unemployment rate U.S. Unemployment Rate and Long-Term Unemployment In December, the unemployment rate dropped because 347,000 individuals left the workforce Unemployment rate Percentage unemployed 27 weeks or more Percentage unemployed 27 weeks or more 8

10 Consumers appear to be holding more debt and not feeling that good about it Consumer Confidence and Change in Consumer Debt Billions ($) Index: 1995 = Consumer debt Consumer confidence 0 Source: Conference Board and the Federal Reserve. 9

11 Interest rates and inflation are moving upward but are still at historically low levels 7.0 Interest Rates and Inflation 6.0 Annual percentage rate year mortgages 10-year Treasury bill 3-month Treasury bill 12-month change in CPI-U

12 There isn t a lot of demand for loans Net percentage of respondents Federal Reserve Senior Loan Officers Survey: Demand and Lending Standards for Commercial and Industrial Loans by Medium-to-Large Firms Reporting tightening standards Reporting stronger loan demand Q Q Q Q Q Q1 11

13 So let s sum up The economy is expected to grow faster in 2014 than last year, but will still be below what we want The major problem is the lack of demand as seen in our capacity utilization rates and loan demand This means the number of job seekers per job will remain too high Don t expect anything from Congress and the Fed will slowly and I mean slowly tighten the money supply But there is something else as well 12

14 Starting in 1981 and continuing until today, most of the nation s income growth has been earned by the top 5 percent Household income ($000s) Income Level Quintiles, 2012 Dollars Lowest Second Third Fourth Lower limit of top 5 percent Source: Census Historic Income. 13

15 Why does it matter? Inequality limits consumer spending and, hence, slows the economy Research suggests that historical trends in upward mobility are declining Consumer confidence surveys indicate that households future expectations are at record lows 14

16 What should be done? That is the question Very little political will to make the tax code more progressive Increasing educational opportunities is a standard response but it is a long-term solution Current efforts are to increase the minimum wage 15

17 The state s minimum wage of $7.40 has not changed since Minimum Wage, , Nominal Wage ($) Michigan US 16

18 In real terms, the minimum wage has not kept its value 10 Minimum Wage, , Real Oct 2013 $ Wage ($) Michigan US

19 Impacts: So should we increase the minimum wage? Modest impact on employment Recent research indicates that this will be the case It will increase wages for those who are making slightly more than the minimum wage Thus, have a bigger impact on wages than expected Could raise prices for goods and services purchased by low-wage workers Could cause difficulties for industries that compete solely on price 18

20 So should we increase the minimum wage? My preferred solution is to increase the Earned Income Tax Credit Strong incentive to work Is directed at the low-income individuals Will have little impact on prices except an increase in demand for consumer goods Either the minimum wage or the EITC will directly impact the structure issue of income inequality Bottom line: this issue will not go away 19

21 Turning to Michigan 2013 Employment Growth Estimates: 52,600 total jobs created, up 1.3% 17,800 manufacturing jobs, up 3.3% U of M s Forecast is positive 66,730 additional jobs in ,050 additional jobs in 2015 Source: University of Michigan. 20

22 In 2013 the state s employment increased by 52,600 Employment Change, Jan Nov 2012 to Jan Nov 2013 Total Construction Manufacturing Wholesale Retail Transportation & utilities Information Financial Business & professional Education & health Leisure & hospitality Other services Government Implied manufacturing multiplier is 3 which could be about right Employment (in 000s) Source: Michigan Labor Market Information, CES. 21

23 Auto sales continue to pick up and are forecast to drive past 16 million units in million units in Source: BEA. 22

24 The auto outlook is promising The current fleet on the road is old, very old 11.4 years Incentives are back New selections there will be 40 new launches in 2014 Financing is available 23

25 Construction activity has a long way to go 60,000 Number of Building Permits Issued* 50,000 40,000 30,000 20,000 10, Total units Single family *2013 is an estimate Source: U.S. Census. 24

26 Muskegon-Norton Shores MSA Simply a great year 1,700 more jobs, 2.8 percent increase Unemployment falling for the right reasons The peer group of MSAs cannot touch you However, talent remains an issue and according to research, a serious issue The forecast calls for further growth 25

27 Total employment increased by 1,700 workers but can that 700-job increase in leisure and hospitality be believed? Employment Change 2012 to 2013 Total Construction Manufacturing Wholesale, Trans, Util. Retail Information Financial Prof. & Business Education health Leisure & hospitality Other Services Government 11.3% increase

28 If we alternatively assume that leisure and hospitality increased by 3 percent, the county would still grow by 1.9 percent during the year Total Construction Manufacturing Wholesale, Trans, Util. Retail Information Financial Prof. & Business Education health Leisure & hospitality Other Services Government Employment Change 2012 to

29 The county s employment growth was powered by a large jump in leisure & hospitality 1, Employment Change 2012 to 2013 Leisure & hospitality Manufacturing Retail Education & health Prof. & business Information Financial Mining, logging, const. Other services Wholesale, transport., util. Government Source: BLS CES. 28

30 Unemployment is still stubbornly high but falling for the right reason Unemployment Rate for Muskegon MSA Source: BLS LAUS and Upjohn Institute. 29

31 Individuals are finding jobs and their success is pulling other individuals back into the labor market Year November-to-November Change Labor Force Change Employment Change Unemployment Change ,302-2, ,088 1, Source: MI Labor Market Indicators, Local Area Unemployment Statistics. 30

32 Total employment is just 3 percent below pre-recession highs 110 Total Employment Index (2000=100) Recession loss: 6,800 jobs Recovery gain: 4,700 jobs Net loss 2,100 jobs United States Michigan Muskegon Source: BLS LAUS and Upjohn Institute. 31

33 Services employment is also coming back and is only 3 percent below 2008 levels Private Services Employment Index (2000=100) United States Michigan Muskegon Source: BLS LAUS and Upjohn Institute. 32

34 Manufacturing has fully recovered from the recession. It is almost V shaped. 105 Manufacturing Employment Index (2000=100) United States Michigan Muskegon Source: BLS LAUS and Upjohn Institute. 33

35 The county s manufacturing sector is NOT being powered solely by autos Food Textile Wood Printing Chemical Plastic & rubber Nonmetallic mineral Primary metal Fabricated metal Machinery Computer Elec. equip. Transport. Furniture Misc. Employment Change, Q to Q Source: BLS QCEW. 34

36 Except for primary metals, most of the county s major manufacturers are reporting growth Employment Change, Q to Q Chemical Electrical equip. Machinery Food Textile Wood Plastics & rubber Chemical Nonmetallic mineral Computer Elec. equip. Furniture Transport. Misc -150 Primary metal Source: BLS QCEW. 35

37 Wage pressures are starting to build reflecting the strength of the county s manufacturing base Annual income ($000s) Full-Time Production Wages in Muskegon 10th Percentile 25th Percentile Median 75th Percentile 90th Percentile Source: IPUMS USA. 36

38 Don t see it statewide Annual Income ($000s) Full-Time Production Wages in Michigan 10th Percentile 25th Percentile Median 75th Percentile 90th Percentile Source: IPUMS USA. 37

39 Not much to report Construction Permits Issued, Muskegon Total, All Structure Types Single Family Houses Source: U.S. Census. 38

40 Slowly rising but still pretty flat FHFA Housing Price Index (1995=100) Source: FHFA Housing Index. 39

41 Comparison Analysis Comparison Areas Elkhart-Goshen, IN Jackson, MI Janesville, WI Monroe, MI Niles Benton Harbor, MI Oshkosh-Neenah, WI Pueblo, CO Racine, WI Saginaw Saginaw Township North, MI 40

42 Comparison Criteria All one-county metropolitan areas Within Midwest region Not college town or state capitol All within 16% population of Muskegon County 41

43 But should we care given since it is a troubled statistic? Average Unemployment Rate, Jan Nov 2012 Muskegon Average Oshkosh, WI Monroe, MI Janesville, WI Elkhart, IN Jackson, MI Racine, WI Saginaw, MI Benton Harbor, MI Pueblo, CO Source: BLS. 42

44 Muskegon leaves the others in the dust Percent Change in Total Employment, Jan Nov 2011 to Jan Nov 2012 Muskegon Average Elkhart, IN Pueblo, CO Janesville, WI Oshkosh, WI Benton Harbor, MI Jackson, MI Monroe, MI Racine, WI -0.6% -0.2% 0.4% 1.8% 1.2% 1.1% 1.1% 0.1% 0.1% 2.8% -3% -1% 1% 3% 5% Source: BLS. 43

45 Same story Percent Change in Service Employment, Jan Nov 2011 to Jan Nov 2012 Muskegon Average Janesville, WI Elkhart, IN Pueblo, CO Oshkosh, WI Benton Harbor, MI Jackson, MI Monroe, MI Saginaw, MI -1.0% -0.2% -0.3% 0.4% 0.3% 1.9% 1.8% 1.3% 1.0% 2.4% -2% -1% 0% 1% 2% 3% Source: BLS. 44

46 At least, Monroe made it interesting Percent Change in Manufacturing Employment, Jan Nov 2011 to Jan Nov 2012 Muskegon Average Monroe, MI Jackson, MI Elkhart, IN Oshkosh, WI Racine, WI Benton Harbor, MI Pueblo, CO Saginaw, MI -2.1% -0.9% 0.3% 1.8% 1.6% 1.1% 0.8% 0.8% 3.1% 2.9% -3% -2% -1% 0% 1% 2% 3% 4% Source: BLS. 45

47 This remains the challenge for the area. How to attract and retain knowledge-based workers. It is both job offers and amenities. Muskegon, MI Average Oshkosh, WI Racine, WI Benton Harbor, MI Monroe, MI Metro Janesville, WI Saginaw, MI Jackson, MI Elkhart, IN Pueblo, CO Percent of 25- to 34-Year-Olds with Bachelor's Degree or Higher 16.7% 22.2% 27.7% 25.7% 23.1% 22.9% 21.4% 18.5% 14.4% 13.3% 32.5% 0% 10% 20% 30% 40% Source: ACS

48 Numerous studies clearly show that talent is key to future growth 35 Bachelor s Degree or Higher Muskegon Michigan United States 25 to to to and Over Source: Census ACS

49 Just a reminder: education does matter for the individual as well Unemployment rate Unemployment Rate by Educational Attainment 2012 Less than HS High school 29 percent of the county s employed workforce has some college. Some college Associate's Bachelor's Graduate Source: IPUMS USA. 48

50 Education pays even as its cost increases Annual income (in $000s) Total Income by Educational Attainment 2012 Less than HS High school Some college Associate's Bachelor's Graduate Source: IPUMS USA. 49

51 Employers are looking for talent Caution: only 48% of job postings provide the education requirements of the position Education Requirements of Postings 2013 Educational Attainment of Employed % 5% 8% 17% 29% 47% 9% 32% 13% 29% Dropout High school Post. Sec. Source: IPUMS USA 2012 & BurningGlass Assoc. Bach. Grad. Note: Job postings contain an unknown mix of certifications and Associate s degrees. 50

52 Job postings have increased in Utilities Construction Manufacturing Wholesale trade Retail trade Transport. & warehouse Information Finance & insurance Real estate Prof., sci., tech Management Admin, support, waste Educational services Health care & social asst. Arts, ent., & rec. Accommodation & food Other services Public admin. tourism-related activities Job Posting Index, 2012 to 2013 All Industries The number of job postings increased by 47 percent from 2012 to Ratio to total growth Source: Burning Glass Labor Insight. 51

53 The growth in postings for knowledgebased positions is not so strong... Grand Rapids Kalamazoo Monroe Battle Creek Jackson Muskegon Ann Arbor Holland Lansing Detroit Flint Saginaw Benton Harbor Bay City Job Posting Index, 2012 to 2013 Architecture and Engineering Occupations Ratio to Total Growth Source: Burning Glass Labor Insight. 52

54 Nor for geeks Kalamazoo Monroe Grand Rapids Jackson Detroit Ann Arbor Lansing Muskegon Saginaw Battle Creek Flint Holland Bay City Benton Harbor Job Posting Index, 2012 to 2013 Computer and Mathematical Occupations Ratio to total growth Source: Burning Glass Labor Insight. 53

55 Turning to next year Special thanks to the economic forecast focus group members although you blew it again last year We reviewed business reports for Muskegon during the past year 54

56 So, how did we do last year? Too hot to handle or about right Muskegon MSA Estimated and Forecasted Employment Growth for 2012 Percent change 5.0% 4.0% 3.0% 2.0% 1.0% 0.0% -1.0% -2.0% -3.0% Total Goods-producing Service-providing Government 4.0% 4.0% 3.3% 2.8% 1.9% 1.9% 1.5% 1.1% 1.2% 0.2% -2.0% -2.0% Forecast Estimate Alternative The alternative estimate assumes leisure and hospitality grew by 3.0 percent during the year. Source: Upjohn Institute. 55

57 2014 and 2015 Employment Forecast for Muskegon-Norton Shores MSA 5.0% Total Goods producing Private services Government Percent change 4.0% 3.0% 2.0% 1.0% 0.0% -1.0% 2.8% 1.6% 1.9% 4.0% 1.4% 3.3% 2.2% 2.1% 1.9% -0.3% 0.0% -2.0% -2.0% -3.0%

58 Forecast for Muskegon County 2013 was a great year! George A. Erickcek Brian Pittelko W.E. Upjohn Institute for Employment Research January 31, 2014