Economic Perspective

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Emily Gallagher
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1 Economic Perspective Roanoke Valley Chamber of Commerce Rick Niswander, Ph.D., CPA Vice Chancellor for Administration and Finance East Carolina University January 24, 2012

2 Tonight Provide some perspective Give a lesson (I m in education) Look at key economic indicators Look into the (bit-less-cloudy) crystal ball

3 The Lesson Demands of workplace are increasingly diverging from the skills of the workforce. Unskilled / Skilled / Professional

4 The Lesson 1990 to 2010: NC jobs up 709K (23%) 20 broad categories of employment Utilities, manufacturing, retail trade, wholesale trade, finance/insurance, health care & social asst, accommodation/food, education, etc

5 The Lesson Over past 20 years, 9 of 20 categories have more workers, but smaller % of total employment (smaller piece of pie) 3 of 20 down in # and in % Manufacturing, utilities, mining Mfg 26% to 11% (820K to 430K) Double-down categories employ unskilled and skilled (bias to unskilled)

6 The Lesson 5 of 20 up in # and in %: Prof & Tech Svcs, Administrative Svcs, Accommodation & Food, Education, Healthcare & Social Assistance , total workforce +709K jobs These 5 categories: +770K jobs. From 29% to 44% of total employment Think of unskilled/skilled/professional

7 The Lesson NC ESC projections Shrinking %: mfg, mining, utilities, govt Growing %: prof & business svcs, info related, leisure & hosp, educ, health Shrinking towards unskilled end, growth toward professional end.

8 The Lesson Federal BLS projections to Jobs in goods producing industries = flat Jobs in service industries = mill Five largest category increases: healthcare & social asst, prof & tech svcs, education, admin, accommodation & food.

9 The Lesson Top 20 growing occupations Half require bachelors degree or more 4 require education beyond HS Rest (6) require OJT from ST to extensive For top 20 growing occupations with median wages over $50K, all but one require bachelors or more (exception is dental hygienist with assoc degr)

10 The Lesson Bottom 20 declining occupations Every single one does not require anything beyond HS education Every single one is heavily unskilled. Through 2018 the only job categories to grow more than overall growth rate require education beyond HS.

11 The Lesson So, 70% of fastest growing jobs require associates or bachelors or more 100% of declining jobs don t require more than a HS degree Growth is in skilled and professional, not unskilled. Shift in proportions.

12 Education Matters

13 General Economic Indicators

14 Economy continues to recover As was the case a year ago, the levels and trend of almost all (but not all) economic indicators are moving in the right direction As last year, construction is an exception and employment growth is lagging.

15 Real Personal Income

16 Real Disposable Personal Income

17 Real Personal Consumption

18 Real Private Investment

19 Real Retail & Food Sales

20 Car & Light Truck Sales

21 Business Inventories

22 New Orders Index (start 48, 09 lowest ever)

23 Industrial Production

24 Manufacturing Index (50 is neutral)

25 Commercial Loans Monthly Percent Change

26 Real GDP (since 47 never had 4 consec. negative quarters)

27 Inflation not an issue yet

28 Housing

29 Housing Starts

30 Construction Spending

34 Prices % Change 3Q11 to 3Q10 % Change 3Q11 to 2008 Charlotte + 5.5% + 6.7% Durham ( 9.7%) ( 7.6%) Greensboro ( 1.9%) (14.1%) Raleigh + 7.3% +.04% Total US ( 4.7%) (13.8%)

35 Employment Markets (a lagging indicator) Clear signs of recovery, but it will continue to be slow

36 Unemployment Rate Since 1950

37 Unemployment Rate Since 2006

38 Job Openings

39 Monthly Job Gain or Loss (BE = +150K)

40 Employment United States

41 Employment North Carolina

42 Employment & Labor Force Halifax+Northampton

43 # Unemployed Halifax+Northampton

44 Unemployment Rate NC, Halifax+Northampton

45 Initial Unempl. Claims 4-week moving average

46 Initial Unempl. Claims North Carolina

47 Initial Unempl. Claims Roanoke Rapids

48 Insured Unemployment Claims Halifax+North.

49 The Crystal Ball

50 Unemployment rate (lagging indicator) will continue to get better. Slowly. Some acceleration over last years pace. By Dec 2012, expect low end of 7.5% to 8.0%. NC +1%. Halifax+Northampton +2% to +3% LT risk is the changing composition of job market Mismatch between required education & training levels demanded by job market and the skills held by the workforce.

51 GDP 2012 = 3%-3.5% nominal growth. Interest rates OK, OK, I believe Bernanke. Absent credit shock (EU or such) rates should be fairly flat over the year. Still threat of asset bubbles because of huge liquidity in market. Low (but not zero) risk of deflation.

52 Housing Remains very slow recovery. Foreclosure overhang is drag on industry. Mobility remains constrained. Hurts NC. State Budget Fiscal budget has stabilized, but Eastern NC has higher education/military component; areas under budget stress.

53 Risks to sustained recovery European Union Implosion=30%, muddle through=50%, good=20% Energy price spike due to Middle East flareup. Continued lack of political will (take care to separate the rhetoric from the reality) The madness of crowds. Things are not as they are, they are as they seem. Something out of left field.

54 Bottom Line Keep things in perspective Unemployment, stock market, economy When prosperity comes, do not use all of it Confucius Take a deep breath Don t hyperventilate Turn off the screaming heads on TV

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