EMBARGOED UNTIL MARCH 2, 2011

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1 Outlook FORECAST: March 2011 BUREAU OF BUSINESS AND ECONOMIC RESEARCH COLLEGE OF BUSINESS AND ECONOMICS WEST VIRGINIA UNIVERSITY Executive Summary The Morgantown metropolitan statistical area (MSA) accelerated during 2010, after posting slow growth in The includes Monongalia and Preston counties. Local job growth hit 1.0 percent in 2010, well above growth in 2009 (of 0.6 percent) and much better than the job losses posted by the state and the nation. The Morgantown unemployment rate remained relatively high in 2010 (at 6.2 percent), but that was well below the state (9.2 percent) and national (9.6 percent) rates. Overall, the Morgantown area came through the severe global downturn in much better shape than either the state or the nation and it continues to be the most dynamic economy in West Virginia. Job growth in 2010 was concentrated in Monongalia County, although Preston County added jobs as well. For Preston County, that is a welcome return to growth, after large job losses in Overall job gains in the metropolitan area were concentrated in the service-providing sectors, as the goods-producing sector lost jobs (primarily in natural resources and mining, as well as construction). Job gains were widespread across service-providing sectors, with government (state and federal); professional and business services; leisure and hospitality; and health care driving gains. Assuming the national economy continues to expand, the forecast calls for the Morgantown economy to continue to generate job, population, and real income growth during the next five years. Job growth in the local area is forecast to average 1.8 percent per year from 2010 to That is well above growth during the past two years and well above the expected state rate (1.0 percent). Both the goods-producing and service-providing sectors add jobs during the forecast, but most of the gains are in the service-providing sectors. The largest job gains are expected in health care; government; professional and business services; trade, transportation and utilities; and leisure and hospitality. The baseline outlook assumes that the national economy continues to grow during the next five years. If, instead, the national economy falls back into recession, then that will mean slower local economic growth or even outright declines in the level of economic activity. Further, health care and government jobs are expected to contribute significantly to overall growth. However, these sectors face risks related to the sustainability of the current local/state/federal budget path. If health care and/or overall government spending is cut significantly during the forecast, it will likely generate slower job growth in these sectors. Finally, Morgantown is likely to continue to be one of the fastest growing regions in the state. This makes it important for the local area to invest in the infrastructure (particularly for transportation) needed to support continued growth.

2 In Perspective The North Central Region of West Virginia is comprised of three areas: the Clarksburg MicroSA, the Fairmont MicroSA, and the. The Clarksburg MicroSA includes Doddridge, Harrison, and Taylor counties, while the Fairmont MicroSA is comprised of Marion County. The includes two counties: Monongalia and Preston. Metropolitan statistical areas (MSAs) are defined by the Federal Office of Management and Budget around urbanized areas with a population of at least 50,000 residents. Micropolitan statistical areas (MicroSAs) are defined around urbanized areas with a population of at least 10,000 residents but less than 50,000. The county including the urbanized area is the central county in the statistical area. Nearby counties are also included if commuting connections are strong enough. Figure 1 displays these geographic areas in more detail. Figure 1 North Central Region Fairmont Micro Area Marion County Monongalia County Preston County PCPI* Population Unemp. Rt. Region 2008($) 2009e 2010(%) North Central Region 32, , , , Clarksburg MicroSA 32,451 92, Fairmont MicroSA 32,709 56, West Virginia 31,634 1,819, U.S. 40, ,006, *PCPI is Per Capita Personal Income Clarksburg Micro Area Taylor County Harrison County Doddridge County Fairmont Micro Area Clarksburg Micro Area According to Table 1, the population of the North Central Region of West Virginia in 2009 was 269,474. The had 120,327 residents in 2009, which was 44.7 percent of the total population of the North Central Region. Comprising the remainder of the region s population were the Clarksburg MicroSA (92,441 residents) and the Fairmont MicroSA (56,706 residents) in Demographic characteristics vary significantly across the nation and across regions in the state. For instance, the median age in West Virginia during 2009 was 40.5 years. This was nearly four years above the national median age of 36.8 years. The Clarksburg MicroSA median age was about one year higher than that of West Virginia s at 41.6 years. The, however, was relatively young at 33.5 years. This can be attributed to the presence of West Virginia University in Morgantown. 2 WVU Bureau of Business and Economic Research

3 Another important regional characteristic to consider is educational attainment. In 2009, 17.3 percent of the state s population age 25 or older held a Bachelor s degree or higher. This rate was 10.6 percentage points lower than the national educational attainment rate of 27.9 percent. The Clarksburg MicroSA level of education attainment was below both the state and national level at 17.0 percent. On the other hand, the posted a substantially higher share than the state at a rate of 26.8 percent. However, this rate was lower than the national average by 1.1 percentage points. A higher rate for educational attainment in the than other areas of West Virginia can be explained by the existence of West Virginia University in Morgantown. Table 1 North Central Region Selected Economic Indicators by County Value of Nonfarm Median New Const. Per Capita Job Unempl. Household Educational Population Contracts Personal Income Growth Rate Income Attainment Census Av. An. G.R. Median Age Mil. $ Av. An. G.R. Av. An. G.R. 2009e (%) ($) (%) (%) 2010(%) 2009($) 2009(%) Doddridge, W.Va. 7, , Harrison, W.Va. 68, , , Marion, W.Va. 56, , Monongalia, W.Va 90, , , Preston, W.Va. 30, , Taylor, W.Va. 16, , Clarksburg MicroSA 92, , , Fairmont MicroSA 56, , , , , North Central Region 269, , West Virginia 1,819, , , , U.S. 307,006, , , North Central Region includes: Doddridge, Harrison, Marion, Monongalia, Preston, and Taylor counties in West Virginia. Population data are estimates from U.S. Census Bureau. Value of new construction contracts data are from FW Dodge. Per capita personal income data are from the U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis. Median household incomes are from the American Community Survey. Nonfarm Job data are from BLS and Workforce WV. Educational attainment measures the percent of residents age 25+ that hold a BA or better (American Community Survey). The per capita personal income (PCPI) of the North Central Region in 2008 was $32,958, which was slightly above West Virginia s 2008 PCPI of $31,634, but far below the national PCPI of $40,166. The had a PCPI of $33,468. This was higher than both the Clarksburg ($32,451) and the Fairmont ($32,709) MicroSAs. Of all the counties in the North Central Region in 2008, Monongalia County, at $35,287, recorded the highest PCPI, but this fell short of the national PCPI. In 2009, the median household income registered in West Virginia was $37,435. This was almost $13,000 less than the national median household income of $50,221. The median household income of the in 2009, at $34,471, was below both the state and the national level. The median household income for the Clarksburg MicrosSA, at $39,010, was above the state s level but still shy of the national level. In 2010, the North Central Region experienced an unemployment rate of 7.0 percent. This rate was significantly lower than the rate of the state (9.2 percent) and that of the nation (9.6 percent). The had a rate lower than that of the North Central Region at 6.2 percent. The Fairmont MicroSA (7.7 percent) and the Clarksburg MicroSA (8.0 percent) also posted unemployment rates lower than both the state and the nation. Monongalia County recorded the lowest unemployment rate (5.6 percent) out of all the counties in the North Central Region in Doddridge County had for the highest unemployment rate, at 8.9 percent, in the North Central Region. Outlook

4 The total value for new construction starts in West Virginia in 2010 was $1.85 billion. The North Central Region accounted for 28.6 percent of all construction starts in West Virginia in 2010, at $528.3 million. The registered $361.5 million new starts, which was 68.4 percent of the North Central Region. The Clarksburg MicroSA ($110.2 million) and the Fairmont MicroSA ($56.6 million) in 2010 accounted for the rest of the North Central Region s new starts. The largest component of construction starts within the was $282.5 million in new nonresidential starts in 2010, which was 40.2 percent of the value of West Virginia s nonresidential starts. These starts accounted for 78.1 percent of total starts in the Morgantown MSA. The recorded $62.8 million new nonbuilding starts and $16.2 million new residential starts. The posted the third largest per capita real GDP of any MSA in West Virginia. At $34,838 in 2008, this was $6,899 less than the average for all U.S. metropolitan areas ($41,737). Of all the MSAs in West Virginia, the Washington MSA posted the highest per capita real GDP, at $61,834. This was just over $20,000 higher than the U.S. metropolitan portion and almost $27,000 higher than the. In West Virginia, the Charleston MSA recorded the second highest GDP per capita ($37,385), and the Cumberland MSA had the lowest, at $20,520. Figure 2 compares employment shares by industry in 2010 for the, West Virginia, and the United States. The had a relatively high share of natural resources and mining employment, at 1.2 percent, compared to the national share of 0.5 percent, but it was well below the state share of 3.9 percent. Also compared to the state and nation, the accounted for a relatively low share (14.0 percent) in the trade, transportation, and utilities industry in In this sector the nation had a share of 19.0 percent, and West Virginia posted a share of 18.0 percent. Figure 2 Employment Shares* Compared To The State And Nation For 2010 Nat. Resources & Mining Construction W.Va. U.S. Manufacturing Trade, Trans., and Utilities Information Financial Activities Prof. and Business Services Education and Health Services Leisure and Hospitality Other Services Total Government 0% 5% 10% 15% 20% 25% 30% *Employment shares are based on nonfarm employment data. The also accounted for a low share of financial activities employment, at 2.5 percent, compared to 3.7 percent for West Virginia and 5.9 percent for the nation. In addition, manufacturing accounted for a smaller share in the (5.9 percent) as well. In this sector, the state had a share of 6.7 percent, and the nation had a share of 8.9 percent. The 4 WVU Bureau of Business and Economic Research

5 also posted a lower share of employment within the information sector (1.1 percent). The state and the nation recorded an employment share of 1.4 percent and 2.1 percent, respectively, in the information sector. The had a similar employment share (7.9 percent) to that of West Virginia (8.0 percent) in the professional and business services sector. The nation recorded a higher share in this industry, at 12.9 percent. Construction employment shares were similar for the metropolitan area, the state, and the nation (between percent). There were two industries in which the recorded a noticeably higher share of employment: education and health services and government. In 2010, the posted a share of 20.0 percent in the education and health services sector. This was 3.8 percentage points above West Virginia s employment share (16.2 percent) and 4.9 percentage points above the nation s share of 15.1 percent. This reflects the presence of the West Virginia University Health Sciences Center and Monongalia General Hospital in the Monongalia MSA. The other industry in which the had a noticeably higher share of employment was within the government sector (28.1 percent), compared to the state (20.3 percent) and the nation (17.3 percent). This reflects the presence of West Virginia University (state government) and federal government employers like the U.S. Department of Justice (federal prisons, especially in Preston County), a National Institute for Occupational Health and Safety facility, and a National Energy Technology Lab site, among others. Local government jobs, primarily education, are also included in the government sector. Recent Developments From 2004 to 2009, population growth averaged 0.5 percent per year in the North Central Region of West Virginia. This was higher than the West Virginia rate of 0.2 percent, but it was lower than the national rate of 0.9 percent. The had the fastest growth rate within the North Central Region, at 0.9 percent. This growth rate was on par with the nation, but was well above both the Clarksburg and Fairmont MicroSAs, which recorded growth rates of 0.3 and 0.2 percent, respectively. Of all the counties in the North Central Region, Monongalia posted the highest average annual population growth rate of 1.1 percent from 2004 to Doddridge County was the only county to experience negative population growth during this time period at a rate of -0.2 percent per year. From 2003 to 2008, PCPI growth averaged 5.1 percent per year in the North Central Region. This outpaced the growth rate for both the nation (4.5 percent) and West Virginia (4.9 percent). The Fairmont MicroSA and the recorded growth rates above that of West Virginia and the nation at 5.2 percent and 5.1 percent, respectively. On the other hand, the Clarksburg MicroSA posted the same rate as the state but still surpassed national growth during the same time period. Preston County experienced the highest average annual PCPI growth rate from 2003 to 2008 (5.9 percent) of all of the counties in the North Central Region. Monongalia County posted the second lowest growth rate of 4.9 percent. The lowest growth rate of 3.1 percent was in Doddridge County during the same time period. Real GDP growth is an additional economic indicator that can be used to analyze the economic conditions within a region. From 2003 to 2008, the reported the highest per capita real GDP growth rate (2.8 percent per year) of any MSA in West Virginia. This surpassed Outlook

6 the average of all U.S. metropolitan areas, which had a growth rate of 1.4 percent per year. Three other state MSAs also outpaced the average growth rate of all U.S. metropolitan areas, including the Washington MSA (2.2 percent), the Cumberland MSA (2.0 percent), and the Wheeling MSA (1.8 percent). The Charleston MSA posted a real GDP growth rate on par with that of the national metropolitan average. There were no MSAs in West Virginia which posted a negative growth rate, but the Hagerstown-Martinsburg MSA experienced a growth rate of 0.0 percent. House prices in the rose by 1.7 percent from the third quarter of 2009 to the third quarter of This outpaced both West Virginia (0.7 percent) and the nation (-1.2 percent) during the period. The Steubenville-Weirton MSA was the only MSA in West Virginia which experienced faster house price appreciation (2.5 percent) than the. West Virginia lost jobs at a rate of -0.2 percent per year from 2005 to However, this was better than the nation, which lost jobs at a rate of -0.6 percent per year during the same period. Not all regions in West Virginia experienced job losses, however. Indeed, the North Central Region added jobs at a rate of 1.0 percent per year. In addition, the registered an employment growth rate of 2.0 percent per year, making it the fastest growing statistical area in the North Central Region. Of all the counties in the North Central Region, Monongalia County posted the fastest employment growth rate at 2.3 percent during the 2005 to 2010 period. Conversely, Taylor County recorded the fastest decline in jobs at a rate of -1.5 percent. Figure 3 displays annual job growth rates from 2005 to 2010, comparing the to the state and the nation. Only two industries declined in employment in the during this time period: natural resources and mining and financial activities. Indeed, natural resources and mining employment in the declined at a rate of -2.3 percent per year. This rate was well below both state and national gains of 2.3 percent. Job losses in the Morgantown area reflect the closure of a coal mine in Preston County. Financial activities also posted job losses in the. Both the state and the nation also experienced declining employment in this sector, which reflects the national financial crisis and housing bust. During the past five years, the fastest employment growth recorded in the was in the leisure and hospitality sector (4.4 percent per year). The also posted rapid employment growth in the professional and business services industry (2.8 percent per year) and in the health and education services sector (2.6 percent per year). Indeed, the Morgantown MSA registered faster employment growth rates in these three industries than did the state and the nation. 6 WVU Bureau of Business and Economic Research

7 Total Nat. Resources & Mining Construction Manufacturing Trade, Trans., and Utilities Information Financial Activities Prof. and Business Services Figure 3 *Annual Job Growth: Education and Health Services Leisure and Hospitality Other Services West Virginia United States Total Government -6% -5% -4% -3% -2% -1% 0% 1% 2% 3% 4% 5% *Annual job growth is based on nonfarm payroll data. The fastest employment growth in the state was in the natural resources and mining industry, at 2.3 percent per year. Manufacturing posted the most rapid employment decline (-4.3 percent per year) during the past five years. Nationally, the health care sector generated the fastest job growth (at 2.4 percent per year), while the construction sector experienced the most rapid job loss (at -5.5 percent per year). Forecast: The outlook for the depends on the performance of the U.S. and world economies. The national forecast which underpins the local outlook comes from IHS Global Insight. The forecast was completed in January 2011 and reflects the expected future performance of the U.S. economy at that time. Table 2 summarizes the IHS Global Insight forecast for the U.S. As Figure 4 shows, inflation-adjusted GDP is forecast to remain positive through 2015, with growth averaging 3.1 percent per year. That implies that the U.S. economy avoids recession during the forecast. Real GDP grew by 2.9 percent in 2010, after a rapid 2.6 percent drop in The outlook for 2011 is a bit brighter, with real GDP growth hitting 3.2 percent. Real GDP growth then remains in the neighborhood of trend growth (3.1 percent range) for the remainder of the forecast. The gradual rebound in real GDP growth during the forecast period eventually generates net job growth. Indeed, job growth rises from -4.3 percent in 2009, to -0.5 percent in 2010 and then to +1.4 percent in Job growth is forecast to hit 2.0 percent in 2012 and then remain in that range through Unfortunately, as Figure 4 also shows, the sluggish response of job growth to output gains means that the U.S. unemployment rate is forecast to remain above pre-recession lows. In particular, the unemployment rate is expected to fall from 9.3 percent in 2009 to 6.7 percent in Inflation (measured by the personal consumption expenditures deflator) remains under control during the forecast. Indeed, as Table 2 shows, inflation remains in the percent range through Inflation is expected to remain modest, even though commodity prices are expected to continue rising. Crude oil prices (West Texas Intermediate) rise during the next five years hitting $106.20/bbl by 2015, compared to $79.49/bbl in Outlook

8 Figure 4 U.S. Real GDP Growth Picks Up Steam In 2011 But Unemployment Remains High IHS Global Insight, Inc. January Forecast Real GDP Annual Growth Rate GDP Growth Rate Unemployment Rate Unemployment Rate :1 1986:1 1992:1 1998:1 2004:1 2010:1 1983:1 1989:1 1995:1 2001:1 2007:1 2013:1 3 The Federal Reserve is expected to keep short-term interest rates low through Beginning in 2012, sustained economic growth causes the Federal Reserve to begin cautiously raising interest rates. The outlook calls for the federal funds rate to rise from 0.17 percent in 2011 to 1.28 percent in The federal funds rate continues rising through the remaining years of the forecast, hitting 4.68 percent by The 30-year fixed mortgage rate follows a similar trend, rising from 4.73 percent in 2011 to 4.99 percent in The mortgage rate is expected to hit 7.09 percent by Table 2 U.S. Forecast IHS Global Insight, January 2011 Years Actual Forecast Annual Percent Change Real GDP Industrial Production Nonfarm Employment Nominal Personal Income Personal Consumption Deflator Real Export Growth (GDP Basis) Real Import Growth (GDP Basis) Housing Price Appreciation FHFA Index Percent Unemployment Rate Federal Funds Rate Year Fixed Mortgage Rate Billions of Current Dollars Federal Budget Surplus (Unified, FY) -1,416-1,294-1,408-1, Net Exports (NIPA) Gross Domestic Product 14,119 14,662 15,299 15,932 16,679 17,555 18,423 Key Prices Real Trd.Wtd. Value of U.S. Dollar vs Major Trading Partners (2005=1.000) Oil - West Texas Intermediate ($ per barrel) 8 WVU Bureau of Business and Economic Research

9 The residential housing sector gradually recovers during the forecast, although slowly. Residential housing starts are forecast to rise from 685 thousand in 2011 to million by 2015, but that still leaves starts well below their pre-recession peak (2.073 million in 2005). Single family house prices gradually stabilize and begin to recover as well. House prices (as measured by the Federal Housing Finance Agency) fall by 6.7 percent in 2011, then rise by 5.0 percent in That will be the first annual average increase in house prices since Real GDP growth accelerates in 2011 in part due to the additional fiscal stimulus enacted at the end of This additional stimulus is assumed to taper off by Overall, renewed economic growth drives tax revenue growth, while spending decelerates, which leads to a gradual reduction in the federal budget deficit during the next five years. The forecast calls for the deficit-to-gdp ratio, on a calendar year basis, to fall from 10.4 percent in 2009 to 3.7 percent by The forecast calls for U.S. real export growth to remain strong in 2011, with exports rising by 7.2 percent. That growth is supported by sustained global growth, which raises demand for U.S. produced goods and services, and by a continued depreciation of the U.S. dollar, which makes U.S. produced goods and services cheaper to international buyers. Rebounding U.S. growth since 2009 also means stronger growth in U.S. imports. Overall, the forecast calls for net exports (exports minus imports, one measure of the trade deficit) as a share of GDP to go from -2.7 percent in 2009 to -3.6 percent in Rebounding national growth sets the stage for accelerating growth in the during the next five years. That means stronger job growth, sustained real income and population gains, and a lower unemployment rate. The forecast for the Morgantown metropolitan area is summarized in Table 3 below. The is forecast to add jobs during the next five years, with growth averaging 1,195 jobs per year. That translates into annual job growth of 1.8 percent, which is well above expected state growth (1.0 percent) and equal to national job growth. As Figure 5 shows, the forecast also calls for average job growth during the next five years to be slightly slower than average growth during the period. Total Nat. Res., & Min. Construction Figure 5 Annual Job Growth: History and Forecast Manufacturing Trade, Trans., and Utilities Information Financial Activites Prof. and Business Services Educ. and Health Services Leisure and Hospitality Other Services Government -5% -4% -3% -2% -1% 0% 1% 2% 3% 4% 5% Outlook

10 As the figure shows, all sectors are expected to add jobs during the forecast, with most of the job gains coming in the service-providing sectors. However, as the figure shows, the goodsproducing sectors are expected to add jobs as well. Natural resources and mining, as well as manufacturing, jobs rise during the next five years in part due to rebounding national and world economic growth. This raises demand for coal and manufactured goods. In addition, the continued depreciation of the U.S. dollar contributes to improved export growth, which contributes to growth in these sectors, as does overall growth in the demand for pharmeceuticals. Construction jobs continue to grow as the region invests in infrastructure (including residential structures) and construction related to government projects (including federal prisons and West Virginia University). Most job gains during the forecast come in the service-providing sectors, especially health care; government; professional and business services; and trade, transportation, and utilities. Health care growth is supported by demographic trends and the concentration of hospitals already located in the region. Government jobs expand with population growth and rising activity related to prisons and the military. Job gains in professional and business services, as well as trade, transportation, and utilities, reflects rebounding global growth (as well as utility jobs at the Longview Power Plant). Accelerating job growth during the next five years means that the unemployment rate gradually declines. The forecast calls for the local unemployment rate to fall from 6.2 percent in 2010 to 4.6 percent by This means that the region follows the state and national trend toward lower unemployment, but the local rate remains well below the state and national rates during the forecast. Expanding jobs during the next five years means growth in real per capita personal income. The forecast calls for real per capita personal income growth to average 1.9 percent per year, which is faster than the expected state rate of growth (1.8 percent per year) but below the expected national rate of 2.0 percent. Job and income growth in the Morgantown area during the forecast sets the stage for continued population growth. The forecast calls for the local area to generate population growth at a rate of 0.6 percent per year, compared to no growth for the state and 1.0 percent growth for the nation. The baseline outlook calls for continued strong growth in the. However, it is important to also consider risks to the forecast. One important risk to local growth is the probability of a national downturn during the next five years. This would significantly slow growth in the local area and could even generate a drop in economic activity. Health care and government jobs are expected to contribute significantly to overall growth in the. However, these sectors face risks to future growth, with those risks related to the sustainability of the current local/state/federal budget path. If health care and/or overall government spending is cut significantly during the forecast, it will likely generate slower job growth in these sectors. Morgantown is likely to continue to be one of the fastest growing regions in the state. This makes it important for the local area to invest in the infrastructure (particularly for transportation) needed to support continued growth. 10 WVU Bureau of Business and Economic Research

11 Table 3 Employment, Population, And Income Forecasts Annual Growth Actual Forecast Morgantown Morgantown (%) W.Va.(%) U.S.(%) * * * * Nonfarm Payroll Employment By Industry Total 59,520 61,000 62,610 62,980 63,620 64,994 65,782 66,519 68,394 69,596 1, Goods Producing 7,550 7,740 8,080 7,500 7,300 7,446 7,632 7,734 7,843 7, Nat. Res. & Mining , Construction 2,690 2,710 2,900 2,860 2,780 2,814 2,951 3,026 3,093 3, Manufacturing 3,960 4,070 4,140 3,780 3,780 3,880 3,919 3,946 3,986 4, Service Producing 51,970 53,260 54,530 55,480 56,320 57,548 58,150 58,785 60,550 61,607 1, Trade, Trans., Util. 8,700 9,170 9,060 8,830 8,900 9,012 9,144 9,288 9,443 9, Information Financial Activities 1,770 1,750 1,710 1,620 1,590 1,578 1,610 1,623 1,656 1, Prof. & Business Serv. 4,300 4,410 4,670 4,860 5,030 5,265 5,359 5,512 5,810 6, Education & Health 11,540 11,880 12,290 12,610 12,720 13,060 13,277 13,455 13,957 14, Leisure & Hospitality 5,660 5,900 6,190 6,340 6,460 6,677 6,704 6,766 6,965 7, Other Services 2,820 2,860 2,940 3,020 3,080 3,148 3,194 3,198 3,254 3, Government 16,520 16,620 17,010 17,550 17,860 18,137 18,164 18,243 18,754 18, Labor Force, Employment, And The Unemployment Rate Labor Force 61,650 62,880 63,410 63,420 62,870 63,932 64,744 64,758 64,623 65, Employment 59,550 60,920 61,510 60,150 58,990 60,242 61,067 61,116 61,369 62, Unemployment Rate Annual Growth Actual Forecast Morgantown Morgantown (%) W.Va.(%) U.S.(%) * * * * Population Total Population 117, , , , , , , , , , Real Personal Income (Thousands, $2005) Total 3,477,763 3,572,208 3,649,738 3,789,794 3,958,189 4,113,877 4,116,660 4,178,662 4,359,193 4,485, , Wage and Salary 1,892,887 1,981,914 2,063,760 2,164,384 2,187,213 2,257,608 2,282,831 2,323,718 2,415,926 2,473,105 57, Other Labor Income 600, , , , , , , , , ,500 26, Proprietors' Income 340, , , , , , , , , ,840 10, Dividends, Interest, Rent 507, , , , , , , , , ,196 10, Transfer Income 633, , , , , , , , , ,677 20, The consists of Monongalia County and Preston County in West Virginia *This column contains the average yearly change during the period. U.S. forecast is from IHS Global Insight, January 2011, W.Va. Forecast is from West Virginia Economic Outlook Outlook

12 Outlook George W. Hammond, Ph.D. Associate Director, BBER and Associate Professor of Economics Jordan Hantz, Undergraduate Research Assistant This document is published by the Bureau of Business and Economic Research at the College of Business and Economics, West Virginia University, P.O. Box 6025, Morgantown, WV , (304) , fax (304) , Jose V. Sartarelli Milan Puskar Dean of the College of Business & Economics Tom S. Witt Associate Dean for Research and Outreach, Director of the Bureau of Business and Economic Research, and Professor of Economics Copyright 2011 WVU Research Corporation This conference is made possible by the following underwriters: Chesapeake Energy Corporation Morgantown Area Economic Partnership The Chambers Endowed Program for Electronic Business The Dominion Post The State Journal West Virginia Department of Revenue