ECONOMIC FORECAST BREAKFAST

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1 ECONOMIC FORECAST BREAKFAST LEADERSHIP IN A STARTUP ECONOMY FRIDAY, JANUARY 15, 2016

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4 CAREER ADVANCING DEGREES FROM LEEDS EVENING MBA PROGRAM FOR WORKING PROFESSIONALS #1 PART-TIME MBA Program in Colorado according to U.S. News & World Report Engage in a collaborative and INNOVATIVE environment designed for working professionals. Learn in small classes led by top-tier faculty. Complete an MBA in evening classes in 2 YEARS. Lock-step design yields 90% graduation rate. TWO CONVENIENT LOCATIONS: Boulder and Parker, CO CLASSES START MAY 2016! LEARN MORE LeedsMBA@colorado.edu

5 South Metro Denver Economic Forecast 2016 Outlook: Headwinds or Tailwinds? Richard Wobbekind Executive Director Business Research Division Leeds School of Business January 15, 2016

6 Change in Population Change in Colorado Population Thousands Net Migration 4th-fastest state for percentage growth 8th-fastest state for absolute growth 22nd-most populated state in nation Natural Increase Continued net migration into the state 83% of population along Front Range Source: Colorado Demography Office.

7 State Pre-Recession Employment Peak to November Growth 2015 Sources: Bureau of Labor Statistics (Seasonally Adjusted).

8 Colorado Jobs Added, Employment Growth Thousands , Best years since Sources: Bureau of Economic Analysis, NIPA Table 3.18B, Consensus Forecasts.

9 Employment National, State, and Local Recovery Percent 30.0% 25.0% Greeley 20.0% 15.0% 10.0% 5.0% 0.0% -5.0% -10.0% -15.0% Ft. Collins- Loveland Colorado Boulder Pueblo National Colorado Springs Grand Junction Denver Number of Months Since Peak Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics (Seasonally Adjusted).

10 Employment Change Professional and Business Services Education and Health Services Trade, Transportation, and Utilities Construction Leisure and Hospitality Government Financial Activities Manufacturing Other Services Information Natural Resources and Mining Thousands of Jobs Source: Boulder Economic Outlook Forum (BEOF).

11 Construction Value of Construction Nonbuilding 14% Nonresidential 30% Residential 55% Photo Courtesy

12 Housing Annual ChangeUnits vs. Households 70,000 60,000 50,000 Households Housing Units 40,000 30,000 20,000 10,

13 Colorado Foreclosures ,000 70,000 60,000 Total State Foreclosures Over Time Sales 50,000 40,000 30,000 20,000 10,000 0 Filings YTD Source: Colorado Division of Housing data available through September.

14 Federal House Price Index Housing by MSA Finance Agency (FHFA) Q Q Colorado 12.7% Denver-Aurora-Lakewood Boulder Fort Collins Greeley Pueblo Colorado Springs Grand Junction Percent CAGR Q Q Colorado 2.5% Denver-Aurora-Lakewood Boulder Fort Collins Greeley Pueblo Colorado Springs Grand Junction Percent Source: Federal Housing Finance Agency, All Transactions Indexes.

15 Residential Building Permits 45,000 40,000 35,000 30,000 25,000 Multifamily 36,750 Residential Housing: Home appreciation among the fastest nationally Mostly single family permits in ,000 15,000 Lowest foreclosure rate in two decades 10,000 5,000 0 Single Family Sources: U.S. Census Bureau and Colorado Business Economic Outlook Committee.

16 Value of Construction $ Millions 18,000 16,000 14,000 Nonbuilding $16.8 B 12,000 10,000 Nonresidential 8,000 6,000 4,000 2,000 0 Residential Sources: McGraw-Hill Construction Dodge Research and Analytics and Colorado Business Economic Outlook Committee.

17 Colorado Gross Revenue (excluding General reserves, Fund diversions, and transfers) $ Millions 12,000 11,400 10,800 10,200 9,600 9,000 8,400 7,800 7,200 6,600 6,000 FY 2007 FY 2008 FY 2009 FY 2010 FY 2011 FY 2012 FY 2013 FY 2014 FY 2015 FY 2016 FY 2017 FY 2018 Source: Colorado Office of State Planning and Budgeting, excluding reserves, diversions, and transfers, December 2014.

18 Employment and New Entity Filings Employment, thousands 12-month total new entity filings 2, ,000 2,500 2,450 2,400 2,350 2,300 2,250 2,200 2,150 Employment New Entity Filings 105, ,000 95,000 90,000 85,000 80,000 75,000 70,000 65,000 2, Note: Solid line displays actual seasonally adjusted employment numbers; dotted line reflects calculated forecasts. Source: Seasonally adjusted. Colorado total nonfarm employees from the Bureau of Labor Statistics, Current Employment Statistics (CES), calculations by BRD research team. 60,000

19 Q Q U.S. and Colorado Economies Index (50=Neutral) 75 National and State Expectations Colorado United States 25 Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q1 2016

20 Colorado Ranking Among Other States Metric 1-Year 3-Year 5-Year 10-Year Real GDP Growth Employment Growth Population Growth Personal Income Growth PCPI Growth PCPI Average Annual Pay Growth Average Annual Pay Unemployment Rate Labor Force FHFA Home Price Index Data Sources: Bureau of Economic Analysis, Bureau of Labor Statistics, U.S. Census Bureau, Federal Housing Finance Agency, and the Colorado State Demography Office. BRD calculations. Note: 1-year, 3-year, and 5-year are based on the compound annual growth rate.

21 Colorado Economic Indicators Year Consumer Price Inflation Percent Change Retail Sales Colorado Economic Indicators Percent Change Personal Income Unemployment Rate Percent Change Employment 2013 a a a Historical data. Note: Represents annual averages of the month-to-month growth rate.

22 State Summary Colorado outperforms nation in employment growth Falling unemployment Labor force pressures Full employment Growing population Strong in-migration

23 Concerns Fed funds target rate Cost of housing Availability of labor Price of oil El Niño Median family income

24 Thank You!

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27 Startup Trends

28 Trends-Follow the Money

29 Trends-Health Care

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31 Trends- International

32 Trends-CoWorking

33 Trends-Sharing Economy

34 Startup Community

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36 High Supply of Quality Companies

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40 Incubators

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42 Top 10 Metro Areas for High-Tech Startup Density 1. Boulder, Colo. 2. Fort Collins-Loveland, Colo. 3. San Jose-Sunnyvale-Santa Clara, Calif. 4. Cambridge-Newton-Framingham, Mass. 5. Seattle, Wash. 6. Denver, Colo. 7. San Francisco, Calif. 8. Washington-Arlington-Alexandria, DC-Va.-Md. 9. Colorado Springs, Colo. 10. Cheyenne, Wyo.

43 P2BInvestor Colorado Success Story

44 P2BInvestor

45 Qualified Small Business Stock (QSBS), also known as IRC Section 1202 Internal Revenue Code (IRC) Section 1244 of the federal tax code. This is the most important tip for most angel investors because IRC Section 1244 gives investors the ability to take an ordinary income Tax deduction on losses Incentives rather than the standard capital loss deductions.

46 Trends - Investing

47 Crowdfunding

48 High Supply of Quality Companies Lots of out of State VC Investment Newly Mobilizing Angels

49 Wall Street Journal Headlines: Bleak outlook for stocks in 2016

50 RVC Mission Mission The Rockies Venture Club is an angel investing network dedicated to accelerating economic development by educating and connecting investors and entrepreneurs

51 High Supply of Quality Companies

52 RVC Anti-Shark!

53 Two Ways to Invest in Colorado Startups

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69 Thank you to our presenting sponsor