Quarterly Regional Economic Report

Transcription

1 First/Second Quarter 21 Denver Region Economic Condition Summary Sometimes a picture IS worth a thousand words. Or, more precisely, sometimes a collection of pictures is worth a thousand words. As the nation, state and our region face the largest economic downturn in 7 years, there has been no dearth of commentary on the state of the economy. Commentary is often accompanied by one or two visual descriptions, but rarely is a full collection of economic indicators presented visually in one document. From time to time, the Denver Regional Council of Governments (DRCOG) economists are also asked to provide a tracking of economic indicators as context for a specific research report. I am pleased to present the DRCOG Quarterly Economic Report, in which we present a portfolio of economic indicators. We hope these pictures add context to the current economic situation. For the indicators included in this report, we have collected and presented the most current data available. Wherever possible, the data are presented for the nine-county DRCOG region of Adams, Arapahoe, Boulder, Broomfield, Clear Creek, Denver, Douglas, Gilpin and Jefferson counties. Unfortunately, not all data elements are reported at the regional level and not all data sources can supply information as current as we d like. For example, data on gross state product at the regional level are delayed about 16 months and the lowest geography reported is by metropolitan statistical area (MSA). There are two MSAs in the DRCOG region _ Denver-Aurora and Boulder-Longmont _ and they are not entirely contiguous with the DRCOG region. Nonetheless, in all instances we have attempted to present the data as close to the regional level and in as timely a manner as possible. While we present these indicators in visual form, we recognize there may be value to having the raw data accessible. You may find the raw data in the DRCOG Data Catalog at This database will reflect updates as well. We will periodically update this report and release a new set of visual depictions of the region's economy. Over time, this series of economic indicators will hopefully paint a picture of recovery. The DRCOG region has lost approximately 86,7 jobs since mid-28. Housing has been hit hard, while personal income has fared slightly better. With the collection of snapshots of the region's economy contained in this report, our intent is to provide another perspective of the health of the region's economy. For more information, contact (33) Jennifer Schaufele Executive Director

2 First/Second Quarter 21 TABLE OF CONTENTS The following topic table includes the traditional indicators used to measure the condition of the economy. Topic Category Indicators Macroeconomic Market Real Estate Local Revenues Population Employment Unemployment Gross Domestic Product Personal Income/Consumption Consumer Price Index Producer Price Index (Construction) Cost of Living Stock Market Standard and Poor s Business Confidence Index Consumer Confidence Lending Rates (mortgage, prime, etc.) Oil and Gas Housing Median Price Housing Opportunity Index Case & Shiller Index Residential Building Permits Residential Foreclosures Apartment Vacancies Commercial Vacancies Property Tax Sales Tax 1 1, 2 2 2, Back Page Back Page Back Page In an attempt to provide as much data as possible we have presented each indicator with historical data as far back as available or relevant. Caution must be used when comparing indicators with differing time series. For more information, contact (33)

3 MACROECONOMIC First/Second Quarter 21 3,, DRCOG Region Population 2,5, 2,, 1,5, 1,, 5, Source: Colorado State Demographer County Region , DRCOG Region Population by County 6, 5, 4, 3, 2, 1, Adams Arapahoe Boulder Broomfield Clear Creek Denver Douglas Gilpin Jefferson Source: Colorado State Demographer 1,6, 1,4, DRCOG Region Employment 1,2, 1,, 8, 6, 4, 2, Source: Colorado Department of Labor & Employment County Region For more information, contact (33)

4 First/Second Quarter 21 35, DRCOG Region Employment by County 3, 25, 2, 15, 1, 5, Adams Arapahoe Boulder Broomfield Clear Creek Denver Douglas Gilpin Jefferson Source: Colorado Department of Labor & Employment DRCOG Region Unemployment Rate by County Adams Arapahoe Boulder Broomfield Clear Creek Denver Douglas Gilpin Jefferson 24 2 Region Nation Source: Colorado Department of Labor & Employment Millions of current dollars 3, 25, 2, 15, 1, 5, Source: Bureau of Economic Analysis Colorado Gross Domestic Product (GDP) All Industry Total Growth 12.% 1.% 8.% 6.% 4.% 2.%.% 2 For more information, contact (33)

5 First/Second Quarter 21 Chained 2 dollars Per Capita Real GDP for the U.S. and Colorado 45, 4, 35, 3, 25, 2, 15, 1, 5, United States Colorado Source: Bureau of Economic Analysis Millions of nomimal dollars Source: Bureau of Economic Analysis DRCOG Region GDP Denver-Aurora-Broomfield and Boulder MSA Combined U.S. Personal Income $12,. $1,. $8,. $6,. $4,. $2,. $ % 5% 4% 3% 2% 1% % Disposable personal income Personal saving as a percentage of disposable personal income Source: Bureau of Economic Analysis For more information, contact (33)

6 First/Second Quarter Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics Consumer Price Index % 5.% 4.% 3.% 2.% 1.%.% -1.% -2.% Denver-Boulder-Greeley U.S. City Average Percent Change Previous Year 16% 14% 12% 1% 8% 6% 4% 2% % 2% 4% 6% Source: Association of General Contractors National Producer Price Indexes Producer price index (PPI) for finished goods PPI for inputs to construction industries PPI for inputs to highway and street construction PPI for inputs to other heavy construction PPI for inputs to nonresidential buildings PPI for inputs to multi-unit residential PPI for inputs to single-unit residential ACCRA Cost of Living Index Source: Council for Community and Economic Research Denver-Aurora 4 For more information, contact (33)

7 First/Second Quarter 21 MARKET Standard & Poor s Performance -6 Jul-6-7 Jul-7-8 Jul-8-9 Jul-9-1 Source: Standard & Poor s Adjusted Close Business Confidence Index 8. Above 5=expansion Q2Q3 Q4Q1Q2 Q3Q4 Q1Q2Q3 Q4Q1 Q2Q3Q4 Q1Q2Q3 Q4Q1 Q2Q3Q4 Q1Q2Q3 Q4Q1 Q Colorado Expansion/Contraction Line Source: LEEDS Business Confidence Index U.S. Consumer Confidence Index May-94 Sep May-95 Sep May-96 Sep May-97 Sep May-98 Sep May-99 Sep-99 - May- Sep- -1 May-1 Sep-1-2 May-2 Sep-2-3 May-3 Sep-3-4 May-4 Sep-4-5 May-5 Sep-5-6 May-6 Sep-6-7 May-7 Sep-7-8 May-8 Sep-8-9 May-9 Sep-9 May-1 Sep-1 Source: Conference Board Consumer Confidence Index (1985=1) For more information, contact (33)

8 First/Second Quarter 21 1% 9% 8% 7% 6% 5% 4% 3% 2% 1% % Source: Wall Street Journal Prime Rate/Freddie Mac Dollars per barrel , , 198 6, 1982 Source: Energy Information Administration 6, 1984 World Crude (U.S.) Prices 6, 1986 Mortgage Rates -94 Nov-94 Sep-95 Jul-96 May-97 Mar Nov-99 Sep- Jul-1 May-2 Mar-3-4 Nov-4 Sep-5 Jul-6 May-7 Mar-8-9 Nov-9 6, , 199 6, , , 1996 World Crude (U.S.) 6, , 2 6, 22 6, 24 6, 26 3 Year Fixed 15 Year Fixed 5 Year ARM 1 Year ARM Prime 6, 28 6, 21 Colorado All Grades Retail Gasoline Cents per gallon , 2 5, 21 5, 22 5, 23 5, 24 5, 25 5, 26 5, 27 5, 28 5, 29 5, 21 Source: Energy Information Administration Colorado 6 For more information, contact (33)

9 First/Second Quarter 21 REAL ESTATE Thousands of dollars Median Home Price Q1_94 Q3_94 Q1_95 Q3_95 Q1_96 Q3_96 Q1_97 Q3_97 Q1_98 Q3_98 Q1_99 Q3_99 Q1_ Q3_ Q1_1 Q3_1 Q1_2 Q3_4 Q1_4 Q3_5 Q1_5 Q3_6 Q1_6 Q3_7 Q1_7 Q3_8 Q1_8 Q3_9 Q1_9 Q3_1 Denver-Aurora, CO Boulder, CO National Source: National Association of Home Builders Share of homes sold that are affordable to AMI Q1_94 Q3_94 Q1_95 Q3_95 Q1_96 Q3_96 Q1_97 Housing Opportunity Index Q3_97 Q1_98 Q3_98 Q1_99 Q3_99 Q1_ Q3_ Q1_1 Q3_1 Q1_2 Q3_4 Q1_4 Q3_5 Q1_5 Q3_6 Q1_6 Q3_7 Q1_7 Q3_8 Q1_8 Q3_9 Q1_9 Q3_1 Denver-Aurora, CO Boulder, CO National Source: National Association of Home Builders Denver Year over Year (YOY) Change Oct-94 Jul-95 Apr Oct-97 Jul-98 Source: Macro Markets Case & Shiller Index Case & Shiller Home Price Index Apr-99 - Oct- Jul-1 Apr-2-3 Oct-3 Jul-4 Apr-5-6 Oct-7 Jul-7 Apr-8-9 Oct-9 Composite 1 YOY Change Denver Composite 1 25.% 2.% 15.% 1.% 5.%.% -5.% -1.% -15.% -2.% -25.% For more information, contact (33)

10 First/Second Quarter , 3, 25, 2, 15, 1, 5, Source: U.S. Census Bureau 9, 8, 7, 6, 5, 4, 3, 2, 1, 1% 9% 8% 7% 6% 5% 4% 3% 2% 1% % Source: U.S. Census Bureau DRCOG Region Residential Building Permits County Region DRCOG Region Building Permits by Type Single-Family Multi-Family Adams Arapahoe Boulder Broomfield Clear Creek Denver Douglas Gilpin Source: U.S. Census Bureau DRCOG Region Residential Building Permits by County For more information, contact (33)

11 First/Second Quarter Source: Colorado Division of Housing DRCOG Region Foreclosures by County Adams Arapahoe Boulder Broomfield Clear Creek Denver Douglas Gilpin Jefferson Rate per households DRCOG Region Foreclosure Rates by County Adams Arapahoe Boulder Broomfield Clear Creek Denver Douglas Gilpin Jefferson Source: Colorado Division of Housing 3% DRCOG Region Apartment Vacancies by County 25% 2% 15% 1% 5% Adams Arapahoe Boulder/Broomfield Denver Douglas Jefferson 7-County Metro Average % Source: Colorado Division of Housing/Apartment Association of Denver/author Gordon Von Stroh For more information, contact (33)

12 First/Second Quarter 21 25% DRCOG Region Commercial Real Estate Vacancy Rates 2% 15% 1% 5% % Q1 Source: Frederick Ross Company Office Industrial Retail LOCAL REVENUES In thousands of dollars 9, 8, 7, 6, 5, 4, 3, 2, 1, DRCOG Region Property Tax Revenues by County Adams Arapahoe Boulder Broomfield Clear Denver Douglas Gilpin Jefferson Creek Source: Colorado Division of Property Taxation In thousands of dollars 6, 5, 4, 3, 2, 1, Colorado Sales Tax Revenues Q2 Q4 Q2 Q4 Q2 Q4 Q2 Q4 Q2 Q4 Q2 Q4 Q2 Q4 Q2 Q4 Q2 Q4 Q2 Q4 Q2 Q4 Source: Colorado Department of Revenue Colorado Trendline Linear (Colorado) Enhancing and protecting the quality of life in our region 129 BROADWAY SUITE 7 DENVER COLORADO TEL FAX DRCOG@DRCOG.ORG WEBSITE: For more information, contact (33)