Is the bounce for real? Christopher Thornberg Principal, Beacon Economics
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1 Is the bounce for real? Christopher Thornberg Principal, Beacon Economics
2 Will the real economy stand up? Where are we now? The good news: The recession is over The bad news: we haven t completely fixed the problems, instead the economy is being driven by government policy What next? Fundamentals say weak recovery Fiscal issues in the state will continue as a result The best advice: enjoy the stability, but be cautious about the future
3 08-II 09-II Ch Cont. GDP % Personal consumption % -1.2% Durable goods % -0.8% Nondurable goods % -0.4% Services % -0.1% Gross investment % -4.2% Structures % -0.7% Equipment software % -1.6% Residential % -0.9% Net exports % Exports % -1.9% Imports % -3.0% Government % 0.5% National defense % 0.4% Nondefense % 0.1% State and local % 0.0% Worst 4 Quarter Contractions 2009-II -3.8% 1958-I -3.0% 1982-III -2.7% 1954-II -2.5% 1975-I -2.3% 1980-III -1.6% 1961-I -1.0% 1991-I -1.0% 1970-IV -0.2% Total Inventories %
4 Jan-04 Jul-04 Jan-05 Jul-05 Jan-06 Jul-06 Jan-07 Jul-07 Jan-08 Jul-08 Jan-09 Jul-09 Jan-04 Jul-04 Jan-05 Jul-05 Jan-06 Jul-06 Jan-07 Jul-07 Jan-08 Jul-08 Jan-09 Jul-09 Index of Payroll Employment Unemployment Rate United States California United States California
5 Jan-08 Sep-09 Riverside-San Bernardino-Ontario MSA 1,256,600 1,139, % -116,900 Santa Rosa-Petaluma MSA 190, , % -13,900 Oxnard-Thousand Oaks-Ventura MSA 294, , % -20,200 Santa Ana-Anaheim-Irvine Metro Div 1,513,000 1,417, % -95,500 Oakland-Fremont-Hayward Metro Div 1,046, , % -64,900 San Francisco-San Mateo-Redwood City Metro Div 998, , % -53,200 San Jose-Sunnyvale-Santa Clara MSA 919, , % -49,000 Los Angeles-Long Beach-Glendale Metro Div 4,095,800 3,879, % -216,200 Stockton MSA 208, , % -10,800 San Diego-Carlsbad-San Marcos MSA 1,308,400 1,240, % -67,500 Modesto MSA 159, , % -8,200 Salinas MSA 128, , % -5,800 Santa Barbara-Santa Maria-Goleta MSA 174, , % -5,700 Bakersfield MSA 238, , % -6,700
6 Q1-98 Q2-99 Q3-00 Q4-01 Q1-03 Q2-04 Q3-05 Q4-06 Q1-08 Q2-09 Housing Greater price increase / decrease Subprime central Exports Goods / tourism / licenses Business Spending The IT industry CA Taxable Sales Index
7 GDP Growth 2009-I 2009-II 2009-III Percent change at annual rate: Gross domestic product Personal consumption expenditures Durable goods Nondurable goods Services Gross private domestic investment Structures Equipment and software Residential Change in private inventories Net exports of goods and services Exports Imports Government consumption National defense Nondefense State and local
8
9 3Jan06 3Jun06 3Nov06 3Apr07 3Sep07 3Feb08 3Jul08 3Dec08 3May09 3Oct US Equity Markets Day A2/P2 Daily AA (BPs) Nasdaq S&P 500 DJIA
10 Jan-67 Jan-71 Jan-75 Jan-79 Jan-83 Jan-87 Jan-91 Jan-95 Jan-99 Jan-03 Jan-07 Jan-05 Jul-05 Jan-06 Jul-06 Jan-07 Jul-07 Jan-08 Jul-08 Jan-09 Jul Capacity Utilization to Oct Manufacturing Orders and Inventories to October Orders Inventories
11 Jan-07 May-07 Sep-07 Jan-08 May-08 Sep-08 Jan-09 May-09 Sep-09 Jan-06 Jun-06 Nov-06 Apr-07 Sep-07 Feb-08 Jul-08 Dec-08 May-09 Oct Auto Sales SAAR to Nov $315 $310 $305 $300 $295 $290 $285 Retail Sales to November 9 $280 8 $275
12 A? low
13 Jan-03 Sep-03 May-04 Jan-05 Sep-05 May-06 Jan-07 Sep-07 May-08 Jan-09 Sep-09 Jan-01 Oct-01 Jul-02 Apr-03 Jan-04 Oct-04 Jul-05 Apr-06 Jan-07 Oct-07 Jul-08 Apr Housing Starts to Oct 220 Case Shiller 20 City Index
14 Jan-97 Jan-98 Jan-99 Jan-00 Jan-01 Jan-02 Jan-03 Jan-04 Jan-05 Jan-06 Jan-07 Jan-08 Jan-09 Interest Rates The FHA Hope for Homeowners The tax credit Interest Rates Mortgage US Treasury
15 Jan-62 May-67 Sep-72 Jan-78 May-83 Sep-88 Jan-94 May-99 Sep-04 Jan-06 Jun-06 Nov-06 Apr-07 Sep-07 Feb-08 Jul-08 Dec-08 May-09 Oct Monetary Base and Excess Reserves 16.0% 14.0% 12.0% 10.0% 8.0% 6.0% 4.0% 2.0% 0.0% 2 Yr Growth to Nov Monetary Base Monetary Base - Excess Reserves M2 Prices
16 Q1-79 Q3-81 Q1-84 Q3-86 Q1-89 Q3-91 Q1-94 Q3-96 Q1-99 Q3-01 Q1-04 Q3-06 Q1-09 Q1-98 Q1-99 Q1-00 Q1-01 Q1-02 Q1-03 Q1-04 Q1-05 Q1-06 Q1-07 Q1-08 Q Ongoing Foreclosure New Foreclosure 60 to 90 Days by Type Prime FHA VA Subprime
17 2003Q1 2003Q3 2004Q1 2004Q3 2005Q1 2005Q3 2006Q1 2006Q3 2007Q1 2007Q3 2008Q1 2008Q3 2009Q1 2003Q1 2003Q3 2004Q1 2004Q3 2005Q1 2005Q3 2006Q1 2006Q3 2007Q1 2007Q3 2008Q1 2008Q3 2009Q1 13 Price / Asking Rent (PSF) Office 22% Office Vacancies 12 20% % 16% 8 14% % 10% Las Vegas Orange Las Vegas Orange
18 Q3 07 to Q3 09 Apartment Inland Empire 4.70% 8.00% $1,187 $1, % Los Angeles 4.90% 8.00% $1,745 $1, % Orange County 3.90% 7.90% $1,645 $1, % Hotel Inland Empire 64.30% 52.40% $117 $ % Los Angeles 74.40% 64.20% $159 $ % Orange County 72.40% 64.00% $170 $ % Office Inland Empire 11.30% 26.00% $23 $ % Los Angeles 11.70% 18.10% $31 $29-6.2% Orange County 14.30% 21.20% $30 $ % Retail Inland Empire 13.70% 22.00% $19 $ % Los Angeles 8.30% 13.50% $26 $ % Orange County 3.50% 10.90% $25 $ % Warehouse Inland Empire 3.30% 11.70% $6 $5-22.2% Los Angeles 3.80% 7.60% $8 $7-13.6% Orange County 6.00% 11.00% $7 $5-18.2%
19 Jan-05 Sep-05 May-06 Jan-07 Sep-07 May-08 Jan-09 Sep Q1 1986Q4 1988Q3 1990Q2 1992Q1 1993Q4 1995Q3 1997Q2 1999Q1 2000Q4 2002Q3 2004Q2 2006Q1 2007Q4 2009Q Bank Health Consumer Credit Delinquency rate on all loans Charge-off rate on all loans
20 1989-I 1991-I 1993-I 1995-I 1997-I 1999-I 2001-I 2003-I 2005-I 2007-I 1986-I 1988-I 1990-I 1992-I 1994-I 1996-I 1998-I 2000-I 2002-I 2004-I 2006-I 71% 70% 69% Share of GDP Consumers 0% -1% -2% 9% 8% 7% 6% Savings as Share DPI 68% -3% 5% 67% -4% 4% 66% 65% Net Trade -5% -6% 3% 2% 1% 64% -7% 0%
21 2006-Jan 2006-May 2006-Sep 2007-Jan 2007-May 2007-Sep 2008-Jan 2008-May 2008-Sep 2009-Jan 2009-May 2009-Sep Real Spending 1993-II 2008-I 2009-III Real Income Savings % 1.0% 3.0% Consumption % 83% 85% 8800 Taxes % 12.6% 9.0%
22 2008Q1 2008Q3 2009Q1 2009Q3 2010Q1 2010Q3 2011Q1 2011Q3 2012Q1 2012Q3 1995Q1 1996Q4 1998Q3 2000Q2 2002Q1 2003Q4 2005Q3 2007Q2 2009Q1 2010Q4 2012Q3 2014Q2 16% 14% 12% Drivers (% Income) 4.0% 2.0% GDP Growth 10% 8% 6% 0.0% -2.0% 4% 2% 0% -4.0% -6.0% -8.0% Savings Taxes
23
24 Jan-91 Feb-93 Mar-95 Apr-97 May-99 Jun-01 Jul-03 Aug-05 Sep-07 Positive Potential Changes Strong export growth Strong recovery in business spending Potential Policy Changes Extend tax cuts / more stimulus A New Bubble? Savings rates stall at lower level Real double dip? Fed policy Will weak labor markets force the Fed to maintain excessively loose policy? Real Value $US OITP
25 Good News The collapse in state revenues will come to an end this year Bad News Weak recovery implies a weak bounce in revenues Local property taxes, are still due for a big hit CORP PIT Sales Total DOF Forecast: Cash Basis FY $9,224 $46,564 $26,083 $89,594 FY $9,828 $46,675 $26,101 $89,385 Beacon Economics: Cash Forecast FY $9,235 $44,007 $26,625 $87,589 FY $9,933 $46,179 $27,242 $90,134
26 -15% -10% -5% 0% 5% 10% 15% State AV Forecast Actual Forecast -25% -20% -15% -10% -5% 0% 5% 10% 15% 20% 25% 30% Median Home Prices Actual Forecast
27 Summary The Recession is Dead Long Live the Recession? Consumer weakness will likely continue Businesses are a wild card Housing bounce won t last Banks not out of the woods yet Commercial trouble to continue Significant chance of a double dip Higher Rates coming down the pike Its not permanent Its just going to take some time PATIENCE!! But is this another transition for the US Labor force?
28 Analysis. Answers. Economic Forecasting Regional Intelligence Reports Business & Market Analysis Real Estate Market Analysis Ports & Infrastructure Analysis Economic Impact Analysis Public Policy Analysis To view or download this presentation please visit:
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