Progress and Postulates: Seeds of Opportunity in Tehama County and the North State Corning, CA April 23, 2013

Transcription

1 Progress and Postulates: Seeds of Opportunity in Tehama County and the North State Corning, CA April 23, 2013 Robert Eyler, PhD Frank Howard Allen Research Scholar and Professor, Economics Director, Executive MBA Program Sonoma State university

2 Tehama County and the North State Tehama continues to slowly recover Goods-producing, like much of the North State Ag, construction, manufacturing; and Geographically isolated from rest of California exposed risk Housing slowly coming back, likely better Driven by North State and state of CA otherwise Regional the way to play What is the future for Tehama and the North State? 2

3 Current State of Affairs Global clouds parting and forming European issues remain, Chinese growth remains America s Economy: cloudy with a chance of meatballs Austerity has financial market, political ramifications North State Economy Push and pull with California overall: North State ag focus and distance from population centers make for tricky econ dev Growth in region stronger: labor, income and housing Role of government in our lives changing up and down Will the momentum continue? 3

4 Global issues, Local effects Global Concerns and North State Commodity prices as regressive tax Export markets likely to see some pressure FDI coming from Europe and China Financial markets remain slowly adjusting Housing seems to be moving back up nationally: so what? Markets very nervous if bad news comes Over four years of recovery: something needs to give 4

5 2005:1 2005:2 2005:3 2005:4 2006:1 2006:2 2006:3 2006:4 2007:1 2007:2 2007:3 2007:4 2008:1 2008:2 2008:3 2008:4 2009:1 2009:2 2009:3 2009:4 2010:1 2010:2 2010:3 2010:4 2011:1 2011:2 2011:3 2011:4 2012:1 2012:2 2012:3 2012:4 Index (2005 Q1 = 100) Comparison of GDP Components, US, 2005$, Present Consumption Investment Government Spending Exports Quarter Source: BEA ( 5

6 8.0% Residential Investment, US (% change 2005$, SA), 1990Q1-2012Q4 6.0% 4.0% 2.0% 0.0% -2.0% -4.0% -6.0% -8.0% -10.0% -12.0% Source: BEA ( 6

7 6.0% Non-Residential Investment, US (% change 2005$, SA), 1990Q1-2012Q4 4.0% 2.0% 0.0% -2.0% -4.0% -6.0% -8.0% -10.0% Source: BEA ( 7

8 Billions of $ 18 Excess Reserves at U.S. Depository Institutions (Loanable Funds Not Lent), 2008$, Jan Aug Month Source: Federal Reserve Board

9 Billions of $ 2000 Excess Reserves at U.S. Depository Institutions (Loanable Funds Not Lent) 2008$, Jan Present Month Source: Federal Reserve Board 9

10 Jan-97 Jul-97 Jan-98 Jul-98 Jan-99 Jul-99 Jan-00 Jul-00 Jan-01 Jul-01 Jan-02 Jul-02 Jan-03 Jul-03 Jan-04 Jul-04 Jan-05 Jul-05 Jan-06 Jul-06 Jan-07 Jul-07 Jan-08 Jul-08 Jan-09 Jul-09 Jan-10 Jul-10 Jan-11 Jul-11 Jan-12 Jul-12 Jan-13 Billions of 2008$ 2000 Excess Reserves at U.S. Depository Institutions (Loanable Funds Not Lent) 2008$, Jan Present Month Source: Federal Reserve Board 10

11 California Major challenges for California, Innovation advantage may be lost in this generation CA less business-friendly over time due to taxes focused on businesses, regulations rising Affordable Care Act begins in 2014 Demographic shifts and cost of living otherwise Will California lose its workforce to aging and competition? Education gaps Can we generate more science and math students? What about soft skills? 11

12 North State Economy Housing and financial markets Housing recovering, but slow speed: helping the trades? 2013 looks like a better year than 2012, interest rates rising may not be a bad thing Goods markets Taxable sales rising across CA in 2012, 2013 likely slower growth Slow consumption growth ok if parallel to more savings Labor markets Recovery here, still a long way from full employment 2013 looks like a year of continued job growth, but slower 12

13 Gross Product by Area, North Valley (Chico, Redding, Yuba MSA) and California, Real GDP growth, % 6% North Valley CA 4% 2% 0% -2% -4% -6% Source: BEA and SSU 13

14 Jan-00 Jul-00 Jan-01 Jul-01 Jan-02 Jul-02 Jan-03 Jul-03 Jan-04 Jul-04 Jan-05 Jul-05 Jan-06 Jul-06 Jan-07 Jul-07 Jan-08 Jul-08 Jan-09 Jul-09 Jan-10 Jul-10 Jan-11 Jul-11 Jan-12 Jul-12 Jan Payroll Employment, SA, , 2000 = SF SJ CA SD 70 Source: EDD/BLS 14

15 Jan-00 May-00 Sep-00 Jan-01 May-01 Sep-01 Jan-02 May-02 Sep-02 Jan-03 May-03 Sep-03 Jan-04 May-04 Sep-04 Jan-05 May-05 Sep-05 Jan-06 May-06 Sep-06 Jan-07 May-07 Sep-07 Jan-08 May-08 Sep-08 Jan-09 May-09 Sep-09 Jan-10 May-10 Sep-10 Jan-11 May-11 Sep-11 Jan-12 May-12 Sep-12 Jan-13 Payroll Employment, Seasonally Adjusted, 2000 Feb 2013, Index 2000 = Tehama Butte CA Source: EDD 15

16 Housing Summary 2013 to be slightly better than 2012 Why? Distressed sales still relatively high Interest rates need to (and will) rise a bit Demand for housing is more churn than new Need job growth and stability for true recovery Bubble fears a non-issue given supply characteristics Lending not fueling demand growth this time 16

17 CA Housing Data: Most Distressed Counties County Feb-2012 Jan-2013 Feb-2013 Madera 73% 42% 53% Solano 74% 59% 52% San Joaquin 64% 53% 51% Stanislaus 71% 52% 48% Fresno 61% 48% 44% Sacramento 65% 44% 43% San Bernardino 66% 42% 43% Merced 63% 58% 41% Butte 53% 42% 40% Riverside 61% 45% 39% Yolo 73% 39% 38% Sonoma 51% 35% 34% Napa 52% 30% 34% California 53% 36% 33% Source: 17

18 CA Housing data: Least Distressed Counties County Feb-2012 Jan-2013 Feb-2013 California 53% 36% 33% Los Angeles 51% 35% 32% Humboldt 40% 23% 26% San Luis Obispo 42% 30% 21% Orange 43% 27% 20% Marin 39% 23% 19% San Mateo 37% 19% 19% Santa Clara 40% 24% 17% San Diego 29% 14% 15% Source: 18

19 Tehama County: Overall for looks like a year of continued growth Clouds forming a bit in terms of continued pace of recovery Housing growth not likely to create another building boom North State not immune to global or national economic issues Generally: good things happening, albeit slow 19

20 The Future (according to Rob) More broadband coming and needed A direct way to stimulate economic development in rural counties California close to a tipping point Place to live or do business, unlikely both Land preservation and eco-tourism How many counties in CA can actually pull this off? The Age of Energy and Bio Science Incentives to solve problems that face all of us 20

21 Questions to Answer Why are businesses going to grow or stay here? Can housing markets be used as an attractor? Are the assets in place to support attraction and growth? Need to think locally and act regionally: can this be done when we are counties and cities? 21