The North Bay Economy 2014: Continued Growth, Needs
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1 The North Bay Economy 2014: Continued Growth, Needs Rohnert Park, CA February 19, 2014 Robert Eyler, Ph.D. Professor, Department of Economics Director, Center for Regional Economic Analysis Sonoma State University
2 What to expect in 2014 Regional economy to grow in 2014, some signs of peaking o Housing markets: rapid growth in 2013 o Commercial real estate demand rising o Interest rates showing upward pressure: sign of growth o Business expectations of inflation rising o Drought in California not in any models yet 2
3 Global/Domestic National Economy Global economy o Chinese economy forecasts 5.5% 7% growth o Europe < 2 percent growth but growing, sort of o South America in inflationary cycle now: grew too fast Need generalized innovation for prolonged expansion For 2014, questions to consider: o Will tax reform come at national level and in what forms? o Will ACA slow down business investment? o Will debt issues continue to play into decision making? 3
4 Forecast Wrap US real GDP to grow 2-2.5% in 2014, real terms 10-year Treasury yields to 4% by Dec 2014 US unemployment under 6.5% by summer 2014, perhaps under 6% by early 2015 CA GSP growth of 3.2% in 2014 real terms Unemployment 8.3%, growth in jobs to continue Housing prices to rise 6-8% Inflation up just under 2% in CA (US a bit less) 4
5 2005:1 2005:2 2005:3 2005:4 2006:1 2006:2 2006:3 2006:4 2007:1 2007:2 2007:3 2007:4 2008:1 2008:2 2008:3 2008:4 2009:1 2009:2 2009:3 2009:4 2010:1 2010:2 2010:3 2010:4 2011:1 2011:2 2011:3 2011:4 2012:1 2012:2 2012:3 2012:4 2013:1 2013:2 2013:3 2013:4 Index (2005 Q1 = 100) GDP Components Growth, US, 2005$, Present Consumption Investment Government Spending Exports Quarter Source: BEA ( 5
6 6.0% Non-Residential Investment, US (% change 2005$, SA), 1990Q1 2013Q4 4.0% 2.0% 0.0% -2.0% -4.0% -6.0% -8.0% Source: BEA ( 6
7 10.0% Residential Investment, US (% change 2005$, SA), 1990Q1 2013Q4 5.0% 0.0% -5.0% -10.0% -15.0% Source: BEA ( 7
8 Interest Rates and Drivers The FED rumblings if o National unemployment is 6.5 percent or lower and o Inflation is over 2.5 percent annualized for two quarters in a row of PCE price inflation, then o Likely to be 25 basis point movements once it starts, all else constant. o QE taper and 25 basis point payment on reserves also out there What the Federal Reserve is trying to do o Careful not to cause panic o Careful to get cash on fence in motion 8
9 Billions of $ 2400 Excess Reserves at U.S. Depository Institutions (Loanable Funds Not Lent) 2008$, Jan Present Month Source: Federal Reserve Board 9
10 Jan-97 May-97 Sep-97 Jan-98 May-98 Sep-98 Jan-99 May-99 Sep-99 Jan-00 May-00 Sep-00 Jan-01 May-01 Sep-01 Jan-02 May-02 Sep-02 Jan-03 May-03 Sep-03 Jan-04 May-04 Sep-04 Jan-05 May-05 Sep-05 Jan-06 May-06 Sep-06 Jan-07 May-07 Sep-07 Jan-08 May-08 Sep-08 Jan-09 May-09 Sep-09 Jan-10 May-10 Sep-10 Jan-11 May-11 Sep-11 Jan-12 May-12 Sep-12 Jan-13 May-13 Sep-13 Jan-14 Billions of 2008$ 2400 Excess Reserves at U.S. Depository Institutions (Loanable Funds Not Lent) 2008$, Jan Present Month Source: Federal Reserve Board 10
11 California: Economic and Social Major challenges oinnovation advantage may be lost in this generation obecoming less business-friendly? odemographic shifts and workforce oeducation gaps: soft versus hard skills Economic challenges for 2014 owill be get another tech innovation bump? ostate budget still exposed to equity market cycles 11
12 What is Driving Growth in the Bay Area? Classic tech o Tech vets in evolution to media companies o Mobile apps continue to grow, M&A activity up Life Sciences o Bay Area growth rapid here, North Bay partnership formed o Longer path for investors, path for jobs Services: surrounding these companies in earnest o Logistics, marketing, professional services Important to watch for coming North Bay demand o Specifically commercial real estate 12
13 North Bay Economy Wine, tourism, services still the large plays o Can this be a place for life sciences across spectrum? Job growth since 2012 has been mainly in services, now a bit more in construction o Politics of growth + demography changes The role of manufacturing an ongoing debate Housing market a big focus in 2014 Need to think regionally 13
14 Jan-02 May-02 Sep-02 Jan-03 May-03 Sep-03 Jan-04 May-04 Sep-04 Jan-05 May-05 Sep-05 Jan-06 May-06 Sep-06 Jan-07 May-07 Sep-07 Jan-08 May-08 Sep-08 Jan-09 May-09 Sep-09 Jan-10 May-10 Sep-10 Jan-11 May-11 Sep-11 Jan-12 May-12 Sep-12 Jan-13 May-13 Sep-13 Jan-14 Employment Growth Comparison, Marin, Napa, Sonoma Counties and CA , Seasonally Adjusted, October 2009 = Sonoma CA Marin Napa Source: EDD ( 14
15 Place Housing Price Growth 2013 Growth Lowest Median Price Growth since Low Dec 2013 Median CA +19.4% $ 245, % $ 438,040 Lake +29.4% $ 85, % $ 165,000 Marin +12.2% $ 632, % $ 893,750 Mendocino +13.0% $ 181, % $ 278,570 Napa +32.7% $ 306, % $ 478,000 Solano +27.2% $ 179, % $ 293,520 Sonoma +17.1% $ 312, % $ 464,190 Source: 15
16 CA Housing data: Most Distressed Counties Place Dec-2012 Nov-2013 Dec-2013 Amador 37% 20% 35% Lake 45% 25% 34% Kings 49% 31% 28% Mendocino 39% 26% 27% Tulare 39% 20% 26% Fresno 52% 26% 24% Siskiyou 44% 22% 24% San Joaquin 53% 21% 23% Merced 51% 21% 22% San Bernardino 44% 20% 22% Solano 58% 29% 22% Monterey 45% 14% 20% El Dorado 37% 13% 19% Kern 39% 18% 19% Sacramento 51% 16% 19% Yolo 44% 14% 18% Riverside 48% 17% 17% California 37% 14% 16% Source: 16
17 CA Housing data: Least Distressed Counties Place Dec-2012 Nov-2013 Dec-2013 California 37% 14% 16% Butte 28% 9% 15% Madera 74% 10% 15% San Benito 50% 16% 15% Santa Cruz 34% 9% 15% Sonoma 37% 10% 15% Humboldt 29% 18% 14% Placer 47% 13% 13% Napa 39% 10% 10% Orange 30% 7% 10% Alameda 26% 6% 9% Marin 20% 6% 8% Contra Costa 29% 6% 7% San Luis Obispo 26% 6% 7% Santa Clara 19% 4% 7% San Mateo 20% 5% 6% San Diego 13% 5% 5% Source: 17
18 North Bay Leading Indicators Weighted average of macroeconomic variables for all counties. Leading variables tell us where we are headed o Default Notices: As defaults, economy o Building Permits: As permits, economy o New UI Claims: As new claims, economy o US Leading Index: As USLI, economy o Help-Wanted Ads: As ads, economy o Ag Price Index **** : As ag prices, economy Assumes demand not costs causing the price increase 18
19 Jan-02 May-02 Sep-02 Jan-03 May-03 Sep-03 Jan-04 May-04 Sep-04 Jan-05 May-05 Sep-05 Jan-06 May-06 Sep-06 Jan-07 May-07 Sep-07 Jan-08 May-08 Sep-08 Jan-09 May-09 Sep-09 Jan-10 May-10 Sep-10 Jan-11 May-11 Sep-11 Jan-12 May-12 Sep-12 Jan-13 May-13 Sep-13 Jan-14 Leading Indicator Comparison: Lake, Mendocino, Solano, US, Jan 2011 = Lake LI SolanoLI MendoLI USLI Sources: CREA@SSU, Conference Board 19
20 Jan-02 May-02 Sep-02 Jan-03 May-03 Sep-03 Jan-04 May-04 Sep-04 Jan-05 May-05 Sep-05 Jan-06 May-06 Sep-06 Jan-07 May-07 Sep-07 Jan-08 May-08 Sep-08 Jan-09 May-09 Sep-09 Jan-10 May-10 Sep-10 Jan-11 May-11 Sep-11 Jan-12 May-12 Sep-12 Jan-13 May-13 Sep-13 Jan-14 Leading Indicator Comparison: Sonoma, Marin, Napa, US, Jan 2011 = 100 SonLI MarinLI NapaLI USLI Sources: CREA@SSU, Conference Board 20
21 Coincident Indicators Coincident Indicator tell us where we are (all components positively related with economy): o Non-agricultural employment o Retail Sales o Personal Income 2014 a year of continued emergence, similar to 2013 o The leading indicator drives the coincident o Business growth vs. job growth: where does small business come into the equation? 21
22 Jan-02 May-02 Sep-02 Jan-03 May-03 Sep-03 Jan-04 May-04 Sep-04 Jan-05 May-05 Sep-05 Jan-06 May-06 Sep-06 Jan-07 May-07 Sep-07 Jan-08 May-08 Sep-08 Jan-09 May-09 Sep-09 Jan-10 May-10 Sep-10 Jan-11 May-11 Sep-11 Jan-12 May-12 Sep-12 Jan-13 May-13 Sep-13 Coincident Indicator Comparison: Lake, Mendocino, Solano, US, Jan 2011 = 100 Lake CI Mendo CI Solano CI USCI Sources: CREA@SSU, Conference Board 22
23 Jan-02 May-02 Sep-02 Jan-03 May-03 Sep-03 Jan-04 May-04 Sep-04 Jan-05 May-05 Sep-05 Jan-06 May-06 Sep-06 Jan-07 May-07 Sep-07 Jan-08 May-08 Sep-08 Jan-09 May-09 Sep-09 Jan-10 May-10 Sep-10 Jan-11 May-11 Sep-11 Jan-12 May-12 Sep-12 Jan-13 May-13 Sep-13 Coincident Indicator Comparison: Sonoma, Marin, Napa, US, Jan 2011 = MarinCI NapaCI Sonoma CI USCI Sources: CREA@SSU, Conference Board 23
24 2014 Considerations Death, taxes, debt Austerity and universal health care experimentation Five years of equity market growth on March 9 CA forecasted for real growth faster than US thru 2017 Need to think 5-10 years from now o What jobs are coming, and how will our demography change? o How will housing change? o Will there be any shift in innovation toward Asia? 24
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