Financial Markets Fall 2008 Economic Update
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1 Financial Markets Fall 28 Economic Update October 7, 28 Jeff Rubin Chief Economist, Chief Strategist Avery Shenfeld Managing Director, Senior Economist
2 Crash in Commodity Prices Exaggerates Growth Slowdown 6 y/y % chg Fcst World GDP growth (L) CRB Futures Index (R) Past Resource Bear Markets 1/8/28 Page 1
3 Neither US Nor Europe Driving Global Growth % of global GDP growth, 24-7 Key Emerging Markets (Braz il, Russia, India, China) + Mideast Oil Producers "BRICA" Other Asia US Eurozone Central & Eastern Europe Japan 1/8/28 Page 2
4 Marginal Cost of Oil Close to $9/Bbl US$/bbl Jan-4 Apr-4 Jul-4 Oct-4 Jan-5 Apr-5 Jul-5 Oct-5 Jan-6 Apr-6 Jul-6 Oct-6 Jan-7 Apr-7 Jul-7 Oct-7 Jan-8 Apr-8 Jul-8 Oct-8 Jan-9 Apr-9 Jul-9 Oct-9 Rosa (Angola) Usan (Nigeria) Source: Total SA, CIBC WM Crude Oil Price Marginal Cost of New Supply C dn Oil Sands 1/8/28 Page 3
5 Oil Demand Destruction in US Moderate So Far 1 8 yr/yr % chg /8/28 Page US Recession US oil demand -3% (US Dept of Energy)
6 No Growth in World Oil Supply 76 Mn bbl/day Jun Source: US Dept of Energy 62 Jan-2 Jul-2 Jan-3 Jul-3 Jan-4 Jul-4 Jan-5 Jul-5 Jan-6 Jul-6 Jan-7 Jul-7 Jan-8 1/8/28 Page 5
7 US Economy in Recession 6 q/q % chg, s.a.a.r. q/q ch, thousands, s.a forecast 7.Q2 7.Q4 8.Q2 8.Q4 9.Q2 9.Q4 Real GDP (left) Nonfarm Payrolls (right) /8/28 Page 6
8 Soaring TED Spread Shows Money Market Collapse month eurodollars less 3-month T-bills, bps October Sep-6 Dec-6 Mar-7 Jun-7 Sep-7 Dec-7 Mar-8 Jun-8 Sep-8 1/8/28 Page 7
9 US House Deflation: The End is in Sight Index: 2=1 Falling % change.. At a Slower Rate Fcst 16. Jan-6 Sep-6 May-7 Jan-8-3. Jan-6 Sep-6 May-7 Jan-8 Sep-8 1/8/28 Page 8
10 House Prices & Income Back in Balance 7 Index 1975= Household Income House Prices 1/8/28 Page 9
11 US Home Equity Withdrawals 8. SAAR, $bn Q1 1Q1 2Q1 3Q1 4Q1 5Q1 6Q1 7Q1 8Q1 1/8/28 Page 1
12 US Vehicle Sales to Crash to Decade Lows 19 Mar-9 Mar-91 Mar-92 Mar-93 Mar-94 Mar-95 Mar-96 Mar-97 Mar-98 Mar-99 Mar- Mar-1 Mar-2 Mar-3 Mar-4 Mar-5 Mar-6 Mar-7 Mar-8 Mar Mn units, SAAR 3 mo moving avg Fcst 1/8/28 Page 11
13 Sep4 Sep8 Real Fed Funds Rate /8/28 Page 12 Sep Sep96 Sep92 Sep88 Real Fed Funds Rate (%) Sep6 Sep64 Sep68 Sep72 Sep76 Sep8 Sep84
14 Energy Inflation Will Soar on Rebound in Oil Prices $US/bbl CPI: Energy y/y % chg Fcst 5% 4% 3% 1 2% 8 1% WTI Oil Prices % -1% -2% Dec.99 Jun.2 Dec.4 Jun.7 Dec.9 1/8/28 Page 13
15 Canadian Growth Has Faltered; Rebound in %, s.a.a.r. % Forecast 7:1 7:3 8:1 8:3 9:1 9: Real GDP Grow th (left) Unemployment Rate (right) 1/8/28 Page 14
16 Similar Real GDP Growth, But Worse Impact % chg, SAAR 14.7% real GDP nominal GDP employ. corp. profit Three quarters ending Q2 8 Three quarters ending Q1 9 1/8/28 Page 15
17 Nominal GDP More Linked to Global Growth % of variance explained C dn Real GDP R sq with US real GDP C dn Nominal GDP R sq with World Real GDP 1/8/28 Page 16
18 Canadian House Prices Some Overshooting 5 Index: 198 = first half Resale House Prices Disposable Income 1/8/28 Page 17
19 Canada vs US: Vive la Différence debt per capita CANADA $35, US $62, Share of Speculative Activity in Total Mortgage Outstanding mortgage debt as share of income 8% 12% 12% 1% consumer debt as share of income net worth as share of income cash position as share of fin. assets 52% 647% 2% 66% 557% 17% 8% 6% 4% 2% % Australia UK US Canada 1/8/28 Page 18
20 Canadian Banks Asset-to-Capital Multiples Not Particularly High European banks (highest) European banks (avg) US Investment Banks (Sep-8) Canadian Chartered Banks 1/8/28 Page 19
21 Canadian Bank Spreads Tarred with Global Brush 35 3 bps over Canadas, mid-term Bear Stearns Bailout Lehman Filing /2/7 8/29/7 11/7/7 1/16/8 3/26/8 6/4/8 8/13/8 1/8/28 Page 2
22 Rates Ease to Counter Wide Spreads 5 % 1-yr Canada Forecast overnight rate 1 Jul-4 Sep-5 Nov-6 Jan-8 Mar-9 1/8/28 Page 21
23 Sep8 Crisis Has Seen Flight to US$ /8/28 Page 22 Jul8 Aug8 Jun8 May8 15-day correlation S&P 5 and Trade-weighted US$ Apr7 May7 Jun7 Jul7 Aug7 Sep7 Oct7 Nov7 Dec7 Jan8 Feb8 Mar8 Apr8
24 But Fundamentals Point to Weaker US$ Once Flight to Safety Ends Current account as a % of GDP (Q2 28) Japan Canada EU UK US 1/8/28 Page 23
25 C$ Hit by Global Growth Slump 35 Index US cents Forecast monthly averages 5 6 Nov-98 May- Nov-1 May-3 Nov-4 May-6 Nov-7 May-9 BoC Commodity Index (left) C anadian Dollar (right) 1/8/28 Page 24
26 TSX Has Greater Global Link 3% 25% 2% Correlation with S&P5 Correlation with TSX ( annual correlation since 1984) 15% 1% 5% % -5% World GDP G7 GDP 1/8/28 Page 25
27 TSX is the High Beta Play 1,6 1,5 1,4 1,3 1,2 1,1 1, Jan-4 Nov-4 Sep-5 Jul-6 May-7 Mar-8 16, 15, 14, 13, 12, 11, 1, 9, 8, 7, 6, S&P 5 (left) TSX (right) 1/8/28 Page 26
28 Canadian Stocks Did Better Under Democrats % annual price return, TSX C omposite 4 Republican Years mean = 3.5% Democratic Years mean = 13.9% -3 Note: Data for 1956 to 27. Each dot represents 1 observed annual return. 1/8/28 Page 27
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