The External Environment for Developing Countries
|
|
|
- Ginger Price
- 6 years ago
- Views:
Transcription
1 d Public Disclosure Authorized Public Disclosure Authorized Public Disclosure Authorized The External Environment for Developing Countries March 2008 The World Bank Development Economics Prospects Group
2 Large-scale losses across global bourses in the last weeks index January 1, 2008 = 100 Dow Jones DAX TOPIX MSCI 75 Jan-08 Jan-08 Jan-08 Feb-08 Feb-08 Mar-08 Source: Thomson/Datastream.
3 1.290 Dollar plummets to all-time lows against the majors USD per Euro (inverse) [Left] and Yen per USD [right] Jan- Mar- May- Jul- Sep- Nov- Jan-08 Mar yen/usd USD/Euro (inverse) Source: Thomson/Datastream. 96
4 Industrial countries
5 A dramatic 75bp cut in Fed Funds on Mar-18 carries the rate to 2.25% Jun- 5-Jul- 5-Aug- Fed funds rate [left] DJIA [right] Fed funds target rate [L] 5-Sep- 6-Oct- 6-Nov- 7-Dec- 7-Jan- 08 Source: Thomson/Datastream. DJIA [R] 7-Feb Mar ,250 14,000 13,750 13,500 13,250 13,000 12,750 12,500 12,250 12,000 11,750
6 Employment declines feed into softening retail sales in February sales volume, ch% 3mmay/y [left]; delta employment, 3mma [right] Retail sales volume [L] Change in Employment [R] 01/15/06 05/15/06 09/15/06 01/15/ 05/15/ 09/15/ 01/15/08 Source: Departments of Commerce and Labor
7 U.S. inflation picks up on higher energy and food- a possible restraint on the Fed headline CPI ad PPI, ch% 3mma y/y Headline PPI Headline CPI 0 Jan-06 May-06 Sep-06 Jan- May- Sep- Jan-08 Source: U.S. Department of Labor.
8 Revised Japan GDP bumps Q4-growth to 3.5% from 3.7% on investment 5.0 growth of real GDP, and contributions to growth in percentage points Growth % Net exports Stocks Fixed Investment Government Consumption Q3-20 F Q4-20 P Q4-20 F Source: Cabinet Office and DECPG calculations.
9 Yen strength and plummeting equities hit consumer confidence hard 110 Yen per dollar [right] and TOPIX index January 1, 20 = Yen [R] TOPIX [L] Jan- Feb- Mar- Apr- May- Jun- Jul- Aug- Sep- Oct- Nov- Source: Thomson/Datastream. Dec- Jan- 08 Feb- 08 Mar
10 Japan s GDP boost from net exports may fade over goods export and import volumes, ch% saar Export volumes Import volumes Jan-06 Apr-06 Jul-06 Oct-06 Jan- Apr- Jul- Oct- Jan-08 Source: Cabinet Office-- Thomson/Datastream.
11 Euro-Zone GDP slows to 1.5% growth in fourth quarter on sluggish demand growth of real GDP, and contributions to growth in percentage points Growth % Net exports Fixed investment Consumption Government Change in stocks Q2-20 Q3-20 Q4-20 Source: Eurostat and DECPG calculations.
12 German factory orders drop in January foreign orders halve in momentum factory orders, total, domestic, overseas, ch% saar Domestic orders Foreign orders Total orders Jan-06 Apr-06 Jul-06 Oct-06 Jan- Apr- Jul- Oct- Jan-08 Source: Bundesbank-- Thomson/Datastream.
13 ECB: policy rates will not be cut as growth slows and HICP rises HICP inflation (ch% y/y) [L]; EA IP ch% saar [R] Euro Area IP (mfg) [R] HICP inflation (y/y) [L] Jan-06 May-06 Sep-06 Jan- May- Sep- Jan-08 Source: Eurostat and Bundesbank
14 Industrial production
15 Sharp downtrend expected for Euro Area industrial output growth 6mn/6mn ar 5 data forecast Jan-01 Jan-02 Jan-03 Jan-04 Jan-05 Jan-06 Jan- Jan-08 Source: DECPG
16 Robust external demand cushioned U.S. IP from weak domestic demand 6mn/6mn ar Export volumes data forecast 0-5 Industrial production Jan-01 Jan-02 Jan-03 Jan-04 Jan-05 Jan-06 Jan- Jan-08 Source: DECPG
17 IP trend growth in Japan is also 6mn/6mn ar 15 projected to deteriorate data forecast Jan-01 Jan-02 Jan-03 Jan-04 Jan-05 Jan-06 Jan- Jan-08 Source: DECPG
18 High-tech Markets
19 High-tech orders slumping in the U.S. and Europe G-3 orders for high-tech manufactures, US dollar terms, ch% saar United States [R] Europe [R] G-3 High-tech orders [L] Jan-06 Apr-06 Jul-06 Oct-06 Jan- Apr- Jul- Oct Source: National Agencies and DECPG calculations.
20 Semiconductor sales and tech output wane over late 20 and early 2008 semi-chip sales ch% y/y [L]; output of high-tech goods ch% saar [R] Production [R] Semiconductor sales -2 5 Jan-06 Apr-06 Jul-06 Oct-06 Jan- Apr- Jul- Oct- Jan-08 Source: SIA, Thomson/Datastream, Haver.
21 Exports mixed across the globe global exports of high-tech goods in USD terms, ch% 3mma y/y World USA East Asia x Japan Jan-06 Apr-06 Jul-06 Oct-06 Jan- Apr- Jul- Oct- Source: National Agencies and DECPG calculations.
22 International trade
23 U.S. export growth easing into the first months of 2008 goods exports: values and volumes, percent change 3mma/y/y and saar Value saar Value year/year 10 5 Volume year/year 0-5 Volume saar -10 Jan-06 Apr-06 Jul-06 Oct-06 Jan- Apr- Jul- Oct- Jan-08 Source: Department of Commerce-- Thomson/Datastream.
24 World and high-income exports to slow but revive somewhat at mid-2008 goods export volumes, ch% saar World exports High-income exports 2003M1 2003M M7 2005M4 2006M1 2006M10 20M7 2008M4 Source: National Agencies through Thomson/Datastream.
25 Exports from China and other developing economies up in January goods export volumes, ch% saar Developing ex China China exports 2003M1 2003M M7 2005M4 2006M1 2006M10 20M7 Source: National Agencies through Thomson/Datastream.
26 Oil prices
27 Gold $/toz Gold and Oil at all-time highs Oil $/bbl Oil Gold Jan- Jul- Jan-08 Source: LME and DECPG Commodities Group. 50
28 Crude oil inventories rise seasonally M bbl exacerbated by weak demand 5-year high-low ranges Jan-04 Jan-05 Jan-06 Jan- Jan-08 Jan-09 Source: U.S. Department of Energy and DECPG Commodities Group.
29 WTI Futures Prices - NYMEX $/bbl Monthly contract prices to Dec 2013* on select dates in Mar Feb Aug Jan Dec-06 Dec- Dec-08 Dec-09 Dec-10 Dec-11 Dec-12 Dec-13 * No monthly futures prices for 2013 for contracts trading before Nov
30 Non-oil commodity prices
31 (1990=100) Food and beverage prices surge Fats & Oils Grains Beverages Other Food Jan-06 Jul-06 Jan- Jul- Jan-08 Source: DECPG Commodities Group.
32 $/ton Copper prices rebound on falling stocks and tight supplies Copper price 000 tons Jan-06 Jan- LME stocks Jan-08 Source: LME and DECPG Commodities Group
33 World Refined Metal Consumption* 000 tons China Europe N America Other Asia OECD Pac Latin A FSU/EE ME Africa * Aluminum, Copper, Lead, Nickel, Tin, Zinc
34 International Finance
35 Continued stagnation in flows to emerging markets in February Gross capital flows to emerging markets $ billion Q1 Total Jan Feb Q1 Total Jan Feb Total Bonds Banks Equity Lat. America Bonds E. Europe Bonds Asia Bonds Others Source: DECPG Finance Team.
36 Continued turmoil in world stock markets Equity price indexes, January 1, 20 = 100 S&P-500 MSCI Eurofirst-300 Nikkei-225 Jun- Aug- Oct- Dec- Feb-08 Source: Thomson/Datastream.
37 Credit risk soars to record levels Credit default swap spreads (CDSs), basis points CDSs on the Europe index CDSs on the North American index CDSs on Emerging Market Index May- Jul- Sep- Nov- Jan-08 Mar-08 Source: JPMorgan-Chase.
38 Currencies
39 1.290 Dollar plummets to all-time lows against the majors USD per Euro (inverse) [Left] and Yen per USD [right] Jan- Mar- May- Jul- Sep- Nov- Jan-08 Mar yen/usd USD/Euro (inverse) Source: Thomson/Datastream. 96
40 Interest differentials now at 230 bp favoring euro-based assets US-LIBOR, EURIBOR in percent EURIBOR USLIBOR Jun- 5-Jul- 5-Aug- 5-Sep- 6-Oct- 6-Nov- 7-Dec- Source: Thomson/Datastream. 7-Jan Feb Mar- 08
41 105 Dollar falling equally sharply against emerging market units index, LCU per USD, January 1, 20 = Russian ruble euro Turkish lira Brazilian rei Jan- Mar- May- Jul- Sep- Nov- Jan-08 Mar-08 Source: Thomson/Datastream.
42 Focus March 2008 Food prices and domestic inflation
43 International food prices increased 25% in real terms since Jan-2006 Index, 2006= Nominal US$ Nominal LCU Real M1 2006M7 20M1 20M7 2008M1 Source: DECPG
44 Similar increases in domestic food prices across countries percentage change since Jan-2006 China EAP ex CHN Domestic food price Russia Turkey CEE LAC Egypt Jordan India Source: DECPG Pakistan imported food price Nigeria South Africa DEV average OECD HIC
45 Venezuela Latvia South Africa Egypt Colombia Bulgaria Czech OECD HIC Croatia Brazil Turkey Ecuador Slovak Nigeria Indonesia Food prices exert upward pressures on inflation percentage points Non-Food Food Source: DECPG
46 The External Environment for Developing Countries March 2008 The World Bank Development Economics Prospects Group
The External Environment for Developing Countries
d Public Disclosure Authorized Public Disclosure Authorized Public Disclosure Authorized The External Environment for Developing Countries January 2009 The World Bank Development Economics Prospects Group
The External Environment for Developing Countries
d Public Disclosure Authorized Public Disclosure Authorized Public Disclosure Authorized The External Environment for Developing Countries July 2009 The World Bank Development Economics Prospects Group
The External Environment for Developing Countries
d Public Disclosure Authorized Public Disclosure Authorized Public Disclosure Authorized The External Environment for Developing Countries June 2009 The World Bank Development Economics Prospects Group
SEPTEMBER Overview
Overview SEPTEMBER 214 Global growth. Global growth has been weaker than expected so far this year, as economic activity disappointed in a number of major countries in the first six months (Figure 1).
Global Economic Prospects: Navigating strong currents
Global Economic Prospects: Navigating strong currents Andrew Burns World Bank January 18, 2011 http://www.worldbank.org/globaloutlook Main messages Most developing countries have passed with flying colors
Economic Outlook: Global and India. Ajit Ranade IEEMA T & D Conclave December 12, 2014
Economic Outlook: Global and India Ajit Ranade IEEMA T & D Conclave December 12, 2014 Global scenario US expected to drive global growth in 2015 Difference from % YoY Growth October Actual October Projections
The real change in private inventories added 0.15 percentage points to the second quarter GDP growth, after subtracting 0.65% in the first quarter.
QIRGRETA Monthly Macroeconomic Commentary United States The U.S. economy rebounded in the second quarter of 2007, growing at an annual rate of 3.4% Q/Q (+1.8% Y/Y), according to the GDP advance estimates
Global Economic Prospects
Global Economic Prospects Back from the Brink? Andrew Burns World Bank Prospects Group April 12, 212 1 Amid some signs of improvement, global recovery remains fragile First quarter of 212 has been generally
Global Monthly April 2018
Global Monthly April 2018 US$, billions 500 400 300 200 100 Total Potentially impacted by new tariffs 0 China exports to U.S. U.S. exports to China Monthly Highlights Global economy: maturing upturn, gradual
Russia: Macro Outlook for 2019
October 2018 Russia: Macro Outlook for 2019 Natalia Orlova Head of Alfa Bank Macro Insights +7 495 795 36 77 norlova@alfabank.ru Egypt Saudi Arabia Brazil S. Africa UAE Iraq China Japan US Mexico UK Russia
APPENDIX ECONOMIC INDICATORS DEVELOPED ECONOMIES
16 QUARTERLY INVESTMENT STRATEGY APPENDIX ECONOMIC INDICATORS DEVELOPED ECONOMIES Purchasing Managers Index EMERGING ECONOMIES Purchasing Managers Index US Eurozone Japan Brazil Russia India China Industrial
Global Outlook. October 22, M. Marc Stocker DEC-Development Prospects Group
Global Outlook October 22, 214 M. Marc Stocker DEC-Development Prospects Group mstocker1@worldbank.org 1 About Growth Forecasts Public release of growth forecasts in the Global Economic Prospects in June
Developing Countries to Remain Resilient - Risks Considerable
Developing Countries to Remain Resilient - Risks Considerable Financial turmoil a serious threat that has proven manageable so far Developing country dynamism cushions the effect on growth while inflationary
Economic Indicators. Roland Berger Institute
Economic Indicators Roland Berger Institute October 2017 Overview Key points Economic Indicators A publication, compiled by the Roland Berger Institute, that provides you with the most important macroeconomic
Global Economic Prospects: Update Global Recovery in Transition
Global Economic Prospects: Update Global Recovery in Transition April 2015 M. Ayhan Kose 1 Global Prospects: Three Questions 1. How have global economic conditions changed since December? Broadly as expected;
Special Focus: How important are China and India in the global demand for commodities?
For more information, visit http://www.worldbank.org/prospects Overview As in the first quarter, global growth of about 2.3 percent (saar) disappointed in the second quarter of 215. In August, equity markets
All the BRICs dampening world trade in 2015
Aug Weekly Economic Briefing Emerging Markets All the BRICs dampening world trade in World trade in has been hit by an unexpectedly sharp drag from the very largest emerging economies. The weakness in
World Economic Outlook. Recovery Strengthens, Remains Uneven April
World Economic Outlook Recovery Strengthens, Remains Uneven April 214 1 April 214 WEO: Key Messages Global growth strengthened in 213H2, will accelerate further in 214-1 Advanced economies are providing
Snapshot of SA Economy
Snapshot of SA Economy Kgotso Radira 1 September 29 Economic Outlook Global share indices 2 Indices 18 16 14 12 1 8 6 4 25 26 27 28 29 S&P 5 FTSE 1 DAX Nikkei 3 Global interest rates 7 % 6 5 4 3 2 1 1999
Indonesia Economic Outlook and Policy Challenges
Indonesia Economic Outlook and Policy Challenges Daniel A. Citrin Asia and Pacific Department, IMF April 3, 28 Global Financial Stability Map: risks have risen; conditions have deteriorated October 27
PRESENTATION BY JACOB A. FRENKEL AT THE FORUM: INTELLIGENCE ON THE WORLD, EUROPE, AND ITALY. Villa d'este, Cernobbio - September 7, 8 and 9, 2012
PRESENTATION BY JACOB A. FRENKEL AT THE FORUM: INTELLIGENCE ON THE WORLD, EUROPE, AND ITALY Villa d'este, Cernobbio - September 7, 8 and 9, 1 Working paper, September 1. Kindly authorized by the Author.
Three-speed recovery. GDP growth. Percent Emerging and developing economies. World
Three-speed recovery GDP growth Percent 1 8 6 4 2-2 -4-6 198 1985 199 1995 2 25 21 215 Source: IMF WEO; Milken Institute. Emerging and developing economies Advanced economies World Output is still below
Inflation projection of Narodowy Bank Polski based on the NECMOD model
Economic Institute Inflation projection of Narodowy Bank Polski based on the NECMOD model Warsaw / 9 March Inflation projection of the NBP based on the NECMOD model Outline: Introduction Changes between
National Monetary Policy Forum. Chris Loewald, Head: Policy Development and Research 10 April 2016 Pretoria
National Monetary Policy Forum Chris Loewald, Head: Policy Development and Research 1 April 1 Pretoria In the April 17 MPR Executive summary & overview of the policy stance Overview of the world economy
The World Economic & Financial System: Risks & Prospects
The World Economic & Financial System: Risks & Prospects Dr. Jacob A. Frenkel Chairman & CEO Group of Thirty (G30).Bank Indonesia 7th Annual International Seminar Global Financial Tsunami: What Can We
The real change in private inventories added 0.22 percentage points to the second quarter GDP growth, after subtracting 0.65% in the first quarter.
QIRGRETA Monthly Macroeconomic Commentary United States The U.S. economy bounced back in the second quarter of 2007, growing at the fastest pace in more than a year. According the final estimates released
Emerging Markets Weekly Economic Briefing
Emerging Markets Weekly Economic Briefing Divergence in emergers monetary policy This year economic activity across the emergers has been subdued but inflation has generally remained moderate, allowing
Emerging Markets Weekly Economic Briefing
Emerging Markets Weekly Economic Briefing The risks of renewed capital flight from emerging markets Recent episodes of capital flight from emerging markets have highlighted the vulnerability of a number
Emerging Markets Weekly Economic Briefing
1 Emerging Markets Emerging Markets Weekly Economic Briefing Forecasts eased down again as trade remains sluggish We have cut our forecast for China again following weak growth in Q1. We now expect the
Chapter 1 International economy
Chapter International economy. Main points from the OECD's Economic Outlook A broad-based recovery has taken hold Asia, the US and the UK have taken the lead. Continental Europe will follow Investment
Chart 1. U.S. Personal Saving Rate and Household Debt (consu plus mortgage) as a % of Disposable Personal Incom
Chart 1 U.S. Personal Saving Rate and Household Debt (consu plus mortgage) as a % of Disposable Personal Incom 16% 14% 12% 10% 8% 6% 4% Last Points 4Q 2015- Saving Rate, 5.4%; HH Debt, 1 140% 130% 120%
Peru s Fundamentals and Economic Outlook
Peru s Fundamentals and Economic Outlook Julio Velarde Governor Central Bank of Peru October 2016 Content 1. Slow Global Recovery 5. Gradual withdrawal of monetary stimulus 2. Reversal in Peru s external
The External Environment for Developing Countries
The External Environment for Developing Countries Overview December 28 OECD GDP is likely to decline sharply in the fourth quarter as the effects of the financial crisis notably lack of access to finance
Market and Economic Charts. Retail Fund Management Team Investec Asset Management
Market and Economic Charts Retail Fund Management Team Investec Asset Management 30 April 2010 Looking at Markets Global SA Economics Major Index Performance Major Index Performance Market Drivers Inflation
Eurozone Economic Watch
BBVA Research - Global Economic Watch December 2018 / 1 Eurozone Economic Watch December 2018 Eurozone GDP growth still slows gradually, but high uncertainty could take its toll GDP growth could grow by
World Economy Geopolitics Investment Strategy. The Impact of EU s Sovereign Risks on Turkish Economy. Presentation given by
World Economy Geopolitics Investment Strategy OUTLOOK FOR WORLD S MAJOR FINANCIAL MARKETS The Impact of EU s Sovereign Risks on Turkish Economy Presentation given by Dr. Michael Ivanovitch, President MSI
Emerging Markets Weekly Economic Briefing
21 Emerging Markets Emerging Markets Weekly Economic Briefing Recession looms for some emerging economies Several major emerging economies struggling with domestically-induced problems are now in, or flirting
Globalisation and central bank policies
Globalisation and central bank policies Lucas Papademos European Central Bank Bridge Forum Dialogue 22 January 28, Luxembourg 1 Chart 1: Oil and other commodity prices Brent crude oil price (USD per barrel)
GLOBAL OUTLOOK ECONOMIC WATCH. July 2017
GLOBAL OUTLOOK ECONOMIC WATCH July 2017 Positive global outlook, with projections revised across areas The global outlook remains positive. Our BBVA-GAIN model estimates global GDP growth at 1% QoQ in,
International Economy Watch
International Economy Watch August AIB Treasury Economic Research Unit GDP Q- Q- Q- Q- Q- Q- Q- Q- Q- Q- Q- Q- Q- Q- Q- QoQ Change US......... -...... Eurozone -. -. -. -. -. -.......... German.... -.
International Monetary Fund
International Monetary Fund World Economic Outlook Jörg Decressin Deputy Director Research Department, IMF April 212 Towards Lasting Stability Global Economy Pulled Back from the Brink Policies Stepped
Economic Outlook. William Strauss Senior Economist and Economic Advisor Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago
Economic Outlook CRF Credit & A/R Forum & EXPO Salt Lake City, UT October 23, 218 William Strauss Senior Economist and Economic Advisor Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago What I said In August The outlook
Bualuang Exclusive Investment Outlook. March 2017
Bualuang Exclusive Investment Outlook March 2017 1 Theme: Trump support global equities Positive Risk Many countries return to stimulate economies. Many government will increase spending and support economy.
[ ] WEEKLY CHANGES AGAINST THE USD
![[ ] WEEKLY CHANGES AGAINST THE USD](/thumbs/78/77362224.jpg "[ ] WEEKLY CHANGES AGAINST THE USD")
January 15, 2018 [ ] MACRO & MARKETS COMMENTARY» The European central bank (ECB) has indicated it should revisit its communication stance in early 2018, according to the ECB s minutes of December meeting
Special Focus: Fiscal Policy Challenges in Developing Economies
Aug-4 Sep-4 Oct-4 Nov-4 Dec-4 Jan-5 Feb-5 Mar-5 Apr-5 For more information, visit http://www.worldbank.org/prospects Overview The global economy appears to be on track for another year of modest growth.
Financial Markets Fall 2008 Economic Update
Financial Markets Fall 28 Economic Update October 7, 28 Jeff Rubin Chief Economist, Chief Strategist Avery Shenfeld Managing Director, Senior Economist Crash in Commodity Prices Exaggerates Growth Slowdown
Monthly Economic Report
Monthly Economic Report April 19, 2018 Copyright Mizuho Research Institute Ltd. All Rights Reserved. 1. The Japanese Economy: the business conditions DI deteriorated; FY2018 fixed investment plans were
APPENDIX ECONOMIC INDICATORS DEVELOPED ECONOMIES
QUARTERLY INVESTMENT STRATEGY Third Quarter 15 19 APPENDIX ECONOMIC INDICATORS DEVELOPED ECONOMIES Purchasing Managers EMERGING ECONOMIES Purchasing Managers US Eurozone Japan Brazil Russia India China
Monetary Policy: A Key Driver for Long Term Macroeconomic Stability
Monetary Policy: A Key Driver for Long Term Macroeconomic Stability Julio Velarde Governor Central Bank of Peru March 2016 Agenda 1. Peru s growth is based on strong fundamentals 2. Recent economic developments
Economic Indicators. Roland Berger Institute
Economic Indicators Roland Berger Institute November 2018 Overview Key points Economic Indicators A publication, compiled by the Roland Berger Institute, that provides you with the most important macroeconomic
Global Economic Prospects and the Developing Countries William Shaw December 1999
Global Economic Prospects and the Developing Countries 2000 William Shaw December 1999 Prospects for Growth and Poverty Reduction in Developing Countries Recovery from financial crisis uneven International
Global Economic Prospects. South Asia. June 2014 Andrew Burns
Global Economic Prospects South Asia June 214 Andrew Burns Main Messages 214 Global forecast has been downgraded, mainly reflecting one-off factors Financing conditions have eased temporarily, but are
FEDERAL RESERVE BANK OF MINNEAPOLIS BANKING AND POLICY STUDIES
FEDERAL RESERVE BANK OF MINNEAPOLIS BANKING AND POLICY STUDIES Minneapolis Options Report December 13 th Commodity Markets Option trading rose relative to two weeks ago to a more average level last week
Global Economic Prospects
Global Economic Prospects Assuring growth over the medium term Andrew Burns DEC Prospects Group January 213 1 Despite better financial conditions, stronger growth remains elusive More than 4 years after
Global Equites declined from Concern over Trade War
Quarterly Market Outlook: Quarter 2 2018 on 3 April 2018 Global Equites declined from Concern over Trade War Investment Outlook for 2 nd Quarter 2018 Equity Thailand U.S. Europe Japan Asia Bond Thailand
Global Monthly July 2017
Global Monthly July 2017 Overview High-frequency data continue to suggest an ongoing recovery in global activity. Global inflation has abated, reflecting subdued energy prices and low core inflation in
2008 Economic and Market Outlook
Economic and Market Outlook Presented by: Gareth Watson Warren Jestin Vincent Delisle December 7 Economic Outlook Warren Jestin The Global Economic Landscape is Changing Rapidly Gears Down Emerging Powerhouses
[ ] WEEKLY CHANGES AGAINST THE USD
![[ ] WEEKLY CHANGES AGAINST THE USD](/thumbs/83/87976656.jpg "[ ] WEEKLY CHANGES AGAINST THE USD")
February 12, 2018 [ ] MACRO & MARKETS COMMENTARY» In the early hours of last Friday, U.S Congress approved a major budget deal that opens the door for more increase in defense and non-defense spending
August 8, 2006 Authorized for Public Release 148 of 158. Appendix 1: Materials used by Mr. Kos
August 8, 6 Authorized for Public Release 148 of 158 Appendix 1: Materials used by Mr. Kos Class II -- Restricted FR Page 1 of 4 Realized Volatility of MSCI Equity Indices 35 25 15 5 22 August 8, 6 Authorized
[ ] MACRO & MARKET COMMENTARY. » U.S. started the process to draft plans on a further $200 billion in Chinese
![[ ] MACRO & MARKET COMMENTARY. » U.S. started the process to draft plans on a further $200 billion in Chinese](/thumbs/93/112218100.jpg "[ ] MACRO & MARKET COMMENTARY. » U.S. started the process to draft plans on a further $200 billion in Chinese")
July 16, 2018 [ ] MACRO & MARKET COMMENTARY» U.S. started the process to draft plans on a further $200 billion in Chinese imports after tensions between the two largest economies in the world intensified,
Developing Trends: May 2013
Developing Trends: May 213 Overview Quarterly GDP trends diverge among major economies. Supported by a pick-up in consumption expenditures (3.2 percent, q/q saar) and gross private domestic investment
Regional Economic Outlook
Regional Economic Outlook Caucasus and Central Asia Azim Sadikov International Monetary Fund Resident Representative November 6, 2013 Outline Global Outlook CCA: Recent Developments, Outlook, and Risks
Eurozone Economic Watch. November 2017
Eurozone Economic Watch November 2017 Eurozone: improved outlook, still subdued inflation Our MICA-BBVA model for growth estimates for the moment a quarterly GDP figure of around -0.7% in, after % QoQ
FY2018, FY2019 Economic Outlook - The Japanese economy is continuing to follow a recovery track -
REVISED to reflect the 2 nd QE for the Apr-Jun Qtr of 2018 FY2018, FY2019 Economic Outlook - The Japanese economy is continuing to follow a recovery track - September 10, 2018 Copyright Mizuho Research
Developing Trends: September 2012
Developing Trends: September 212 Overview Economic activity has slowed down significantly in recent months. The recent bout of financial market tensions in Europe and weaker growth in some of the larger
World Economic Outlook Is the Tide Rising?
World Economic Outlook Is the Tide Rising? January 214 1 Global activity has strengthened. Further improvements expected. WEO Update in a nutshell Advanced economy growth has picked up Robust private demand
The Global Economic Crisis: Asia and the role of China Elliott School of International Affairs, George Washington University March 31, 2009
The Global Economic Crisis: Asia and the role of China Elliott School of International Affairs, George Washington University March 31, 29 Anoop Singh Asia and Pacific Department IMF 1 Five key questions
Market Insight Economy and Asset Classes December Oil Prices Downtrending: The Real Global Economic Stimulus
Market Insight Economy and Asset Classes December 2014 Oil Prices Downtrending: The Real Global Economic Stimulus 2 Equities Markets Feature In Citi analysts view, the expansion phase the US are enjoying
Potential Gains from the Reform Package
Chart 1 Potential Gains from the Reform Package GDP per capita, % 18 16 14 12 8 6 4 2 Ireland Germany Finland Portugal Spain France Greece Note: The estimated cumulative GDP impact from structural reforms
Caucasus and Central Asia Regional Economic Outlook October 2011
Regional Economic Outlook October 211 Oil and gas exporters Oil and gas importers Kazakhstan Georgia Uzbekistan Kyrgyz Republic Armenia Azerbaijan Turkmenistan Tajikistan Overview Global outlook (CCA)
Emerging Markets Weekly Economic Briefing
Emerging Markets Weekly Economic Briefing Global scenarios Slower growth in emerging markets is a key risk to our central forecast for the global economy. While more positive signs have recently appeared
WEEKLY CHANGES AGAINST THE USD MACRO & MARKETS COMMENTARY
July 17, 2017 [ W E E K LY E C O N O M I C C O M M E N TA R Y ] WEEKLY ANALYSIS FOR THE MOST CRITICAL ECONOMIC AND FINANCIAL DEVELOPMENTS MACRO & MARKETS COMMENTARY» The Federal Reserve (FED) might be
RUSSIAN ECONOMIC OUTLOOK AND MONETARY POLICY. RUSSIA S ECONOMIC OUTLOOK AND MONETARY POLICY December 2018
4% RUSSIA S ECONOMIC OUTLOOK AND December 1 2 Consumer prices (1) At the end of 1, inflation is expected to be close to 4%, which corresponds to the Bank of Russia s target 2 Inflation indicators, % YoY
Capital Flows and Monetary Coordination. Rakesh Mohan Executive Director International Monetary Fund
Capital Flows and Monetary Coordination Rakesh Mohan Executive Director International Monetary Fund June 9, 214 Capital Flows: Historical Overview Pre-WW I Debt flows, mostly long-term Gold standard stable
2015 Market Review & Outlook. January 29, 2015
2015 Market Review & Outlook January 29, 2015 Economic Outlook Jason O. Jackman, CFA President & Chief Investment Officer Percentage Interest Rates Unexpectedly Decline 4.5 10-Year Government Yield 4 3.5
The External Environment for Developing Countries
The Overview November 29 Global production and GDP now increasing at a stronger pace, led at first by developing countries, especially in East Asia, now joined by the major OECD blocs. Industrial production
Worcester Business Journal Economic Forecast Breakfast February 13, Jeff Fuhrer, EVP and Senior Policy Advisor Federal Reserve Bank of Boston
Worcester Business Journal Economic Forecast Breakfast February 3, 25 Jeff Fuhrer, EVP and Senior Policy Advisor Federal Reserve Bank of Boston X Not this lady X Not this guy 2 26:Jan 26:Sep 27: 28:Jan
Commercial Cards & Payments Leo Abruzzese October 2015 New York
US, China and emerging markets: What s next for the global economy? Commercial Cards & Payments Leo Abruzzese October 2015 New York Overview Key points for 2015-16 Global economy struggling to gain traction
[ ] WEEKLY CHANGES AGAINST THE USD. » The Bank of England raised its benchmark interest rate to its highest level in MACRO & MARKET COMMENTARY
![[ ] WEEKLY CHANGES AGAINST THE USD. » The Bank of England raised its benchmark interest rate to its highest level in MACRO & MARKET COMMENTARY](/thumbs/88/115177825.jpg "[ ] WEEKLY CHANGES AGAINST THE USD. » The Bank of England raised its benchmark interest rate to its highest level in MACRO & MARKET COMMENTARY")
August 06, 2018 [ ] MACRO & MARKET COMMENTARY» The Bank of England raised its benchmark interest rate to its highest level in almost a decade. Raising the interest rate is suggesting that inflation continues
FY2017, FY2018, FY2019 Economic Outlook - Firm outlook on both domestic and overseas economic growth remains unchanged -
REVISED to reflect the 2 nd QE for the Oct-Dec Qtr of 2017 FY2017, FY2018, FY2019 Economic Outlook - Firm outlook on both domestic and overseas economic growth remains unchanged - March 8, 2018 Copyright
Eurozone Economic Watch. February 2018
Eurozone Economic Watch February 2018 Eurozone: Strong growth continues in 1Q18, but confidence seems to peak GDP growth moderated slightly in, but there was an upward revision to previous quarters. Available
Economic & Financial Indicators. November Banco de Cabo Verde
Economic & Financial Indicators November Banco de Cabo Verde Monetary Policy Report BANCO DE CABO VERDE Department of Economic Studies and Statistics Avenida Amílcar Cabral, 27 CP 7600-101 - Praia - Cabo
Mexico: Dealing with international financial uncertainty. Manuel Sánchez
Manuel Sánchez United States Mexico Chamber of Commerce, Chicago, IL, August 6, 2015 Contents 1 Moderate economic growth 2 Waiting for the liftoff 3 Taming inflation 2 Since 2014, Mexico s economic recovery
ECONOMIC OUTLOOK FINALLY, SYNCHRONIZED GLOBAL GROWTH
ECONOMIC OUTLOOK FINALLY, SYNCHRONIZED GLOBAL GROWTH Augustine Faucher Chief Economist November 13, 2017 Senior Economic Advisor Chief Economist BETTER GROWTH THIS YEAR, AND AN UPGRADE TO 2018 World output,
The State of the World s Macroeconomy
The State of the World s Macroeconomy Marcelo Giugale Senior Director Global Practice for Macroeconomics & Fiscal Management Washington DC, December 3 rd 2014 Content 1. What s Happening? Growing Concerns
Special Focus: Recent Oil Price Developments in Perspective
Jan- Mar- May- Jul- Sep- Nov- Jan-5 Mar-5 May-5 For more information, visit http://www.worldbank.org/prospects Overview Table of Contents Global growth hit a soft patch in 5Q, driven by slowing activity
Inflation Report October National Bank of Poland Monetary Policy Council
Inflation Report October 9 National Bank of Poland Monetary Policy Council Warsaw, October 9 The Inflation Report presents the Monetary Policy Council s assessment of the current and future macroeconomic
2018 MACRO OVERVIEW. More of the Same, Yet Less of the Same. March 9, 2018
2018 MACRO OVERVIEW More of the Same, Yet Less of the Same March 9, 2018 RICHARD FARR MERION CAPITAL GROUP 484-436-4764 rfarr@merioncapitalgroup.com Jan-04 Oct-04 Jul-05 Apr-06 Jan-07 Oct-07 Jul-08 Apr-09
Global Monthly November 2018
Global Monthly November 2018 Overview Global growth is moderating amid tightening financial conditions and weakening trade and industrial activity. Global equity prices continued to decline in November,
[ ] WEEKLY CHANGES AGAINST THE USD MACRO & MARKET COMMENTARY. » Emerging Market had another unstable week as plunging currencies promoted
![[ ] WEEKLY CHANGES AGAINST THE USD MACRO & MARKET COMMENTARY. » Emerging Market had another unstable week as plunging currencies promoted](/thumbs/94/120057369.jpg "[ ] WEEKLY CHANGES AGAINST THE USD MACRO & MARKET COMMENTARY. » Emerging Market had another unstable week as plunging currencies promoted")
June 11, 2018 [ ] MACRO & MARKET COMMENTARY» Emerging Market had another unstable week as plunging currencies promoted central bank to act accordingly. The Central Bank of Turky and The Reserve Bank of
Chart Collection for Morning Briefing
Chart Collection for Morning Briefing November 14, 217 Dr. Edward Yardeni 516-972-7683 eyardeni@ Mali Quintana 48-664-1333 aquintana@ Please visit our sites at www. blog. thinking outside the box 16 Figure
Industrial Production Annex
Frequency Global Economic Prospects January 2012 Recent economic developments Unique exogenous shocks have affected industrial output throughout the year. The recovery in industrial output growth from
Vantage Investment Partners. Quarterly Market Review
Vantage Investment Partners Quarterly Market Review First Quarter 2016 Quarterly Market Review First Quarter 2016 This report features world capital market performance and a timeline of events for the
О КЛЮЧЕВОЙ СТАВКЕ RUSSIAN ECONOMIC OUTLOOK AND CHALLENGES TO MONETARY POLICY. December Bank of Russia Presentation for Investors
О КЛЮЧЕВОЙ СТАВКЕ RUSSIAN ECONOMIC OUTLOOK AND CHALLENGES TO MONETARY POLICY Bank of Russia Presentation for Investors December 16 USD per barrel RUB / USD 2 Oil Eхporters Production-cut Agreements Support
INFLATION REPORT. March Recent trends and macroeconomic forecasts
INFLATION REPORT March 2016 Recent trends and macroeconomic forecasts 2016-2017 INFLATION REPORT: Recent trends and macroeconomic forecasts 2016-2017 March 2016 International environment Public Monetary
Mongolia Selected Macroeconomic Indicators January 24, 2014
Mongolia Selected Macroeconomic Indicators January 2, 21 For further information, please contact: SSelenge@imf.org 2 2 27 2 29 21 211 212 213 213 Q1 Q2 Q3 Oct. Nov. Dec. Q Total US$-value 1,3 1,97 2,3
Global House View: Market Outlook
HSBC GLOBAL ASSET MANAGEMENT September 29 Global House View: Market Outlook Contents 1688/HSB1395a Market performance Macro-economic Picture Market Views: high level asset allocation Market Views: Equity
Mongolia Selected Macroeconomic Indicators December 18, 2013
Mongolia Selected Macroeconomic Indicators December 18, 213 For further information, please contact: SSelenge@imf.org 2 2 27 28 29 21 211 212 213 212 213 Q1 Q2 Q3 Oct. Nov. First 11 months Total US$-value
Latin America: the shadow of China
Latin America: the shadow of China Juan Ruiz BBVA Research Chief Economist for South America Latin America Outlook Second Quarter Madrid, 13 May Latin America Outlook / May Key messages 1 2 3 4 5 The global
MULTI-ASSET CLASS 1 EQUITIES: DEVELOPED COUNTRIES 1 EQUITY EMERGING COUNTRIES 2
10 2 3 6 8 9 13 14 MULTI-ASSET CLASS 1 EQUITIES: DEVELOPED COUNTRIES 1 EQUITY EMERGING COUNTRIES 2 Alpha Current Previous Alpha Current Previous Alpha Current Previous weight weight weight weight weight