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1 McVEAN Trading & Investments, LLC CHINA S ROLE IN A GLOBAL ECONOMY November 16, 2016 ATLANTA, GEORGIA Michael Drury Chief Economist McVean Trading and Investments, LLC 0
2 2015 GLOBAL GDP $73.5 TRILLION (-3.8% Y/Y) NAFTA $20.7T +2.5% EUROPE $17.3T -11.1% -10.0% China $11.4T +6.8% Other $10.3T -0.3% Japan+South Korea+Taiwan $6.1T -6.5% -5.8% Australia+Brazil+ Argentina+Russia+ OPEC $7.7T -19.8% Source: IMF 1
3 U.S. MAP SUNBELT 2
4 U.S.; EUROPE; CHINA SUBURBS RUST BELT SUNBELT 3
5 REAL GDP CURRENT QTR % CHANGE FROM YEAR AGO 14% 12% 10% 8% 6% 4% 2% 0% -2% RTC CRISIS NASDAQ BUBBLE -4% LEHMAN -6% Jan-49 Jan-55 Jan-61 Jan-67 Jan-73 Jan-79 Jan-85 Jan-91 Jan-97 Jan-03 Jan-09 Jan-15 Q
6 REAL GDP CURRENT QTR % CHANGE FROM YEAR AGO 14% 12% 10% 8% 6% 4% 2% 0% -2% NIKKEI BUBBLE ASIAN CRISIS -4% LEHMAN -6% Jan-49 Jan-55 Jan-61 Jan-67 Jan-73 Jan-79 Jan-85 Jan-91 Jan-97 Jan-03 Jan-09 Jan-15 Q
7 US TRADE BALANCE AS A % OF GDP 4 QUARTER AVERAGE 2% 1% 0% -1% -2% -3% -4% -5% -6% Jan-60 Jan-64 Jan-68 Jan-72 Jan-76 Jan-80 Jan-84 Jan-88 Jan-92 Jan-96 Jan-00 Jan-04 Jan-08 Jan-12 Jan-16 Q
8 IMF GROWTH PROJECTIONS PROJECTIONS World Output Advanced Economies United States Euro Area (0.2) Japan UK (0.7) Emerging and Developing Economies China (0.4) 7
9 US Household Wealth 2, , , , , , , Jan-00 Jan-04 Jan-08 Jan-12 Jan-16 S&P HOME PRICE Sep
10 DOMESTIC CORPORATE PROFITS VS CAPITAL INVESTMENT AS A % OF GDP 12% 16% 15% 10% 14% 8% 13% 12% 6% 11% 4% 10% Mar-75 Mar-79 Mar-83 Mar-87 Mar-91 Mar-95 Mar-99 Mar-03 Mar-07 Mar-11 Mar-15 DOMESTIC CORPORATE PROFITS CAPITAL INVESTMENT Q
11 NEW STUDENT LOANS VS NET BUSINESS INVESTMENT BILLIONS OF US$ Q2 Student Loans Business Investment - Depreciation 10
12 FISCAL POLICY FEDERAL GOVERNMENT DEFICIT AS A % OF GDP 10% 8% 6% 4% 2% 0% 2% 4% Jan 78 Jan 82 Jan 86 Jan 90 Jan 94 Jan 98 Jan 02 Jan 06 Jan 10 Jan 14 Q
13 5 YR TREASURY YIELD CHANGE FROM 5 YEARS AGO Jan-89 Jan-91 Jan-93 Jan-95 Jan-97 Jan-99 Jan-01 Jan-03 Jan-05 Jan-07 Jan-09 Jan-11 Jan-13 Jan-15 Jan-17 Jan-19 ACTUAL PROJECTION AT CURRENT RATE Oct-16 12
14 US, EUROPE, JAPAN PMI 3 MONTH AVERAGE /1/2006 1/1/2007 1/1/2008 1/1/2009 1/1/2010 1/1/2011 1/1/2012 1/1/2013 1/1/2014 1/1/2015 1/1/2016 1/1/2017 Eurozone US JAPAN (RS) Oct-16 13
15 US, EUROPE, JAPAN, CHINA PMI 3 MONTH AVERAGE /1/2006 1/1/2007 1/1/2008 1/1/2009 1/1/2010 1/1/2011 1/1/2012 1/1/2013 1/1/2014 1/1/2015 1/1/2016 1/1/2017 CHINA Eurozone US JAPAN (RS) Oct-16 14
16 CHINESE YUAN IN US DOLLARS Oct
17 CHINA NOMINAL GDP GROWTH IN US$ CURRENT QUARTER % CHANGE FROM YEAR AGO 35.0% 30.0% 25.0% 20.0% 15.0% 10.0% 5.0% 0.0% Mar-01 Mar-02 Mar-03 Mar-04 Mar-05 Mar-06 Mar-07 Mar-08 Mar-09 Mar-10 Mar-11 Mar-12 Mar-13 Mar-14 Mar-15 Mar-16 Q
18 CORN VS COPPER Jan-00 Jan-01 Jan-02 Jan-03 Jan-04 Jan-05 Jan-06 Jan-07 Jan-08 Jan-09 Jan-10 Jan-11 Jan-12 Jan-13 Jan-14 Jan-15 Jan Corn Copper Oct-16 17
19 CRUDE OIL MONTHLY Oct 16 18
20 POLICY LEVERS 1) Monetary Policy - Lower Interest Rates & Reserve Requirements 2) Fiscal Policy Infrastructure Spending 3) Regulation Reform & Open Markets 4) Exchange Rates Managing Yuan 19
21 CHINA FISCAL BALANCE AS A % OF GDP 4 QTR AVERAGE 2.0% 1.0% 0.0% -1.0% -2.0% -3.0% -4.0% -5.0% 1/1/2000 1/1/2002 1/1/2004 1/1/2006 1/1/2008 1/1/2010 1/1/2012 1/1/2014 1/1/2016 Q
22 CHINA TOTAL AMOUNT OF SOCIAL FINANCING 12 MONTH AVERAGE Sep 16 21
23 CHINESE GDP CURRENT QUARTER % CHANGE FROM YEAR AGO 25.0% 23.0% 21.0% 19.0% 17.0% 15.0% 13.0% 11.0% 9.0% 7.0% 5.0% 3/1/2000 3/1/2002 3/1/2004 3/1/2006 3/1/2008 3/1/2010 3/1/2012 3/1/2014 3/1/2016 REAL NOMINAL Q
24 CHINA GDP GROWTH CURRENT QUARTER %CH FROM YEAR AGO Mar-02 Mar-03 Mar-04 Mar-05 Mar-06 Mar-07 Mar-08 Mar-09 Mar-10 Mar-11 Mar-12 Mar-13 Mar-14 Mar-15 Mar REAL GDP (LHS) GDP DEFLATOR (RHS) Q
25 CHINESE NOMINAL GDP BY SECTOR 3 MONTH AVERAGE % CHANGE FROM YEAR AGO 30.0% 25.0% 20.0% 15.0% 10.0% 5.0% 0.0% Jan-99 Jan-01 Jan-03 Jan-05 Jan-07 Jan-09 Jan-11 Jan-13 Jan-15 PRIMARY & SECONDARY TERTIARY Q
26 CHINA MARKIT PMI: MANUFACTURING VS SERVICES /1/2014 8/1/2014 2/1/2015 8/1/2015 2/1/2016 8/1/2016 MANUFACTURING SERVICES Oct 16 25
27 CHINESE RAILROAD FREIGHT VS ELECTRICITY PRODUCTION 3 MONTH AVERAGE % CHANGE FROM YEAR AGO 3 MONTH AVERAGE 30.0% 25.0% 20.0% 15.0% 10.0% 5.0% 0.0% -5.0% -10.0% -15.0% -20.0% RAIL ELECTRICITY PRODUCTION Oct
28 REAL ESTATE IN CHINA Sales of Commercial Buildings in Eastern, Central and Western Regions for January-August 2016 Regions Floor Space of Commercial Buildings Sold Share of Production Growth Rate Y/Y (%) Sales of Commercial Buildings Share of Value Sold Growth Rate Y/Y (%) Price Appreciation National Total 100.0% % % Eastern 48.9% % % Central 27.3% % % Western 23.8% % % Real Estate Investment in Eastern, Central and Western Regions for January- December Regions Investment Share % of Investment in Residential Buildings Growth Rate Y/Y (%) Residential Buildings National Total 100.0% 66.9% Eastern 55.8% 67.3% Central 21.9% 69.7% Western 22.3% 63.0%
29 CHINA EXPORTS VS IMPORTS 3 MONTH AVERAGE %CH FROM 3 MONTH AVERAGE YEAR AGO 66.0% 49.5% 33.0% 16.5% 0.0% -16.5% -33.0% Jan-00 Jan-01 Jan-02 Jan-03 Jan-04 Jan-05 Jan-06 Jan-07 Jan-08 Jan-09 Jan-10 Jan-11 Jan-12 Jan-13 Jan-14 Jan-15 Jan-16 EXPORTS IMPORTS Oct-16 28
30 CHINESE TRADE SURPLUS BILLIONS OF DOLLARS SAAR 3 MONTH AVERAGE Oct-16 29
31 PASSENGER CAR SALES IN CHINA MILLIONS OF UNITS SEASONALLY ADJUSTED ANNUAL RATE Sep-11 Sep-12 Sep-13 Sep-14 Sep-15 Sep-16 MONTHLY 12 MO EMA Sep-16 30
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