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1 Peter Praet Member of the Executive Board of the ECB Belgian Financial Forum Colloquium on The low interest rate environment 4 May 217
2 Global PMI composite output (diffusion index; seasonally adjusted; monthly data) Euro area GDP and sentiment indicators (index, % q-o-q) Global excl. euro area Global excl. euro area average Advanced economies excl. euro area Emerging market economies Real GDP (rhs) ESI (lhs) Composite PMI (lhs) Sources: Markit, ECB staff calculations. Latest observation: March 217. Sources: Eurostat, European Commission, Markit and ECB. Latest observations: April 217 (PMI, ESI), 217Q1 (GDP)
3 Euro area nominal and real disposable income of households (% y-o-y; percentage point contributions) Euro area real compensation of employees (% y-o-y; percentage point contributions) Net social benefits/contributions Direct taxes Employees 6 Net property income Compensation of employees Gross disposable income Gross operating surplus Real gross disposable income 4 Real compensation per employee (GDP-deflated) GDP deflator/consumption deflator (ToT impact of oil price) Real compensation of employees (consumption-deflated) Sources: Eurostat, ECB calculations. Latest observation: 216Q4. Sources: Eurostat, ECB calculations. Latest observation: 216Q
4 HICP inflation and HICP excluding food and energy (annual percentage changes) HICP HICP excluding food and energy Source: Eurostat. Latest observation: April
5 Domestic producer prices and HICP for non-energy industrial goods (annual percentage changes) Services inflation and wage growth (annual percentage changes, quarterly data) HICP non-energy industrial goods (26.3%, lhs) HICP services Compensation per employee 2. Producer Price Index, domestic sales - non-food consumer goods (lhs) Producer Price Index - intermediate goods (rhs) Pre-crisis averages % 2.3 % Sources: Eurostat and ECB calculations. Latest observations: April 217 (HICP NEIG, flash estimate), March 217 for the rest. Source: Eurostat. Latest observations: 217Q1 (HICP services), and 216Q4 (compensation per employee in services). Pre-crisis averages: 1999 to
6 Breakdown of the GDP deflator (annual percentage changes; percentage point contributions) Unemployment (percentage of respective labour force) Unit labour costs Unit profits Unit taxes GDP deflator Difference Unemployment rate Broad unemployment rate Sources: Eurostat and ECB calculations. Latest observation: 216 Q4. Source: Eurostat (EU LFS). Note: 4-quarter moving averages. Percentage of the extended labour force. Latest observation: December
7 OIS spot term structure (percentages per annum) Change in EONIA forward yield curve (percentages per annum) 2. OIS (4 Jun 214) OIS (6 Mar 215) OIS (2 May 217).3 Change from 8 March to 16 March Change from 8 March to 21 April years to maturity Sources: Thomson Reuters and ECB calculations. Sources: Thomson Reuters and ECB calculations. Latest observation: 2 May
8 M3 and loan growth (annual percentage changes) Central bank balance sheets (Jan. 27 = 1) M3 loans to the private sector Eurosystem Federal Reserve Index (January 27=1) Source: ECB. Latest observation: March 217. Sources: ECB, Federal Reserve. Latest observation: 28 April
9 Composite lending rates to NFCs (percent per annum) Changes in reference rates and NFCs cost of borrowing, May 214 Feb 217 (basis points) 8. cross-country dispersion ES IT DE FR EA -2 reference rates cost of borrowing for NFCs EONIA DFR EA DE FR ES IT Source: ECB. Notes: The indicator for the total cost of bank borrowing is calculated by aggregating short and long-term rates using a 24-month moving average of new business volumes. The cross-country dispersion displays the min and max range over a fixed sample of 12 euro area countries. Latest observation: February
10 ECB Rubric monetary policy measures since June 214 Jun. 214 Sep. 214 Jan. 215 Dec. 215 Mar. 216 Dec. 216 Rate cuts MRO:.15%: MLF:.4%; DRF: -.1% MRO:.5%: MLF:.3%; DRF: -.2% MRO:.5%: MLF:.3%; DRF: -.3% MRO:.%: MLF:.25%; DRF: -.4% TLTROs Fixed rate (MRO) Max. maturity: Sep. 218 Uptake depends on net lending Mandatory early repayment Fixed rate at MRO or below if lending > benchmark (min. DFR) No mandatory early repayment Private asset purchases Public asset purchases Broad portfolio of simple & transparent ABS and CBs Purchases in EA sov. debt markets 6bn monthly purchases, incl. ABSPP/CBPP3 APP recalibration I Extension to Mar. 217 Reinvestment of principal payments Purchase of inv.- grade NFC bonds with high pass-through to real economy APP recalibration II 8bn monthly purchases Higher issue share limit for certain issuers APP recalibration III 6bn monthly purchases until December 217 Min. remaining maturity for PSPP eligible securities decreased from 2y to 1y Purchases below DF rate allowed if necessary
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