The ECB asset purchase programme and European financial markets
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1 Peter Praet Member of the Executive Board of the ECB The ECB asset purchase programme and European financial markets TSI Congress Berlin 28 September 217
2 Global and EA PMI composite output (diffusion index; SA; monthly data) Global PMI Composite Global: average Global PMI ex. EA Composite EA PMI Composite Sources: Markit, ECB staff calculations. Latest observation: August 217. Source: Markit. Latest observation: August
3 Industry Retail Construction Business and consumer sentiment (relative frequency) Households Services Source: European Commission. Note: Historical distribution of balances of opinion for five different sectors. Sample: January 2- August 217. Latest observation: August
4 M3 and loan growth (annual percentage changes) Central bank balance sheets (Jan. 27 = 1) 14 M3 loans to the private sector 6 Eurosystem Federal Reserve Source: ECB. Latest observation: August 217. Sources: ECB and Federal Reserve. Latest observation: 22 September
5 Bank loans to the private sector (annual percentage changes) DE ES EA Source: ECB. Latest observation: August
6 HICP inflation and HICP excluding food and energy (annual percentage changes) Risk neutral probability density function of euro area inflation over the next five years HICP HICP excluding food and energy APP Announcement (21 Jan 15) Latest observation (22 Sep 17) Source: Eurostat. Latest observation: August Sources: Bloomberg, Reuters, and ECB calculations. Note: Density functions are computed from 5-year maturity zero-coupon inflation option floors under the assumption of risk neutrality. These risk neutral density functions may differ significantly from physical (or "true") probability distributions. Shaded areas indicate the probability mass assigned to an inflation rate below.% over the next 5 years. Latest observation: 22 September 217.
7 Measures of underlying inflation (annual percentage changes) Components of HICP excluding food and energy (annual percentage changes, percentage point contributions) 3. HICP excluding food and energy HICP excluding food, energy, travel-related items and clothing Long-term average HICP excluding food and energy U2 Core Super-core 2. Clothing Travel Services excluding travel NEIG excluding clothing HICP excluding energy and food Sources: Eurostat and ECB calculations. Note: The dynamic factor model (U2 Core) is based on the full 93 HICP items from each of 12 countries. Super-core is based only on those items in HICP excluding food and energy that are sensitive to slack as measured by the output gap. The range includes exclusion-based measures, trimmed means and a weighted median. Latest observation: August Sources: Eurostat and ECB calculations. Latest observations: August 217.
8 Inflation in Services and Compensation per Employee in Services (annual percentage change) Wage Phillips curve (x-axis: percentage points; y-axis: annual percentage changes) 26 Q1-28 Q1 28 Q2-214 Q3 4. HICP services Compensation per employee Q4-217 Q1 217 Q2-219 Q3 Simple fitted Phillips curve Compensation per employee Sources: Eurostat and ECB calculations. Note: The latest observations are 217 Q3 (latest data point refers to August 217) for HICP services, and 217Q2 for compensation per employee Broad unemployment rate Sources: Eurostat and ECB calculations. Note: Broad unemployment rate includes (i) total unemployed, (ii) underemployed part-time workers who currently have jobs, although not at the optimal weekly hours they would like, and (iii) inactive persons who are marginally attached to the labour market, as a percent of the labour force plus all marginally attached workers. The difference between the unemployment rate and the broad unemployment rate is assumed to decline at the same pace as observed in the past 6 quarters. The black line represents a simple fitted Phillips curve. Latest observation: 217Q1.
9 Implied unemployment gaps (percentage points) Unemployment rate Broad unemployment rate Sources: Eurostat (EU LFS). Note: Seasonally adjusted data. Broad unemployment rate includes (i) total unemployed, (ii) underemployed part-time workers who currently have jobs, although not at the optimal weekly hours they would like, and (iii) inactive persons who are marginally attached to the labour market, as a percent of the labour force plus all marginally attached workers. To obtain the implied unemployment gaps both unemployment rates are expressed as differences to their 26 average plus the 26 unemployment gap from the June 217 BMPE. Latest observation: 217Q2 for unemployment and 217Q1 for broad unemployment
10 Evolution of OIS forward curves (percentages per annum) Key financial indicators since June 214 and impact of policy measures (basis points and index points) 5 1 Aug 7 1 Apr 1 3 May Sep 17 5 Policy measures: credit easing, APP, and DFR Change 25 Sep Jun Forward start in years -1-2 EA 1y yield OIS 1y yield OIS 1y yield NFC bond yield Bank bond yield -2-5 Euro Stoxx Source: ECB. Latest observation: 26 September 217. Sources: Bloomberg, ECB, ECB calculations. Latest observation: 25 September
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