Executive Board meeting

Transcription

1 Executive Board meeting August 7 Growth forecasts Consensus Forecasts GDP. Percentage change on previous year Forecasts June Forecasts June 8 Forecasts July World North Western Japan America Europe Asia excl. Japan Eastern Latin Europe America 7 Forecasts July World North Western Japan America Europe Asia excl. Japan Eastern Latin Europe America Source: Consensus Forecasts

2 House prices ) and housing starts in the US Seasonally adjusted. -month rise ). January June ) Median price for dwellings. ) -month moving average. New dwellings Existing dwellings Housing starts Sources: Reuters (EcoWin) and Equities Indices, November =. November August 7 Euro area Norway Emerging economies US Japan 9 Nov Jan 7 Mar 7 May 7 Jul 7 9 Source: Reuters (EcoWin)

3 Implied volatility from equity options Per cent. January August 7 Norway Europe US Jan Apr Jul Oct Jan 7 Apr 7 Jul 7 Sources: Reuters (Ecowin) and Oslo Stock Exchange Credit premium on BBB-rated corporate bonds -year maturity. Percentage points. January August US Europe Jan Jul Jan Jul Jan Jul Jan 7 Jul 7. Source: Reuters (EcoWin)

4 Credit spreads on bonds secured on subprime loans and ordinary mortgage loans Basis points. 9 January August 7 Subprime 7 H, BBB- Subprime H, BBB- Subprime H, BBB- MBS (mortgage bonds), BBB- Jan May Sep Jan 7 May 7 Source: Lehman Brothers 7 Price of hedging credit risk. -year CDS prices Basis points. July August 7 European banks (Itraxx index) DnB NOR Jul Nov Mar Jul Nov Mar 7 Jul 7 Sources: Bloomberg and Thomson Datastream 8

5 Price of hedging credit risk. -year CDS prices Basis points. October August 7 Norske Skog (left-hand scale) 8 7 Telenor Hydro Statoil Oct Jan Apr Jul Oct Jan 7 Apr 7 Jul 7 Source: Thomson Datastream 9 Central bank Supply of liquidity from various central banks Date Amount supplied in local currency Interest rate Comment: 9 August EUR 9.8bn. per cent (fixed-rate loan) Largest single injection ever. ECB promised full allotment. ECB August EUR.bn.8 per cent (average) Variable interest rate. Average interest rate on allotment of.8 per cent. August EUR 7.7bn.7 per cent (average) Variable interest rate. Average interest rate on allotment of.7 per cent. Federal Reserve 9 August August USD bn + USD bn USD 8bn From.87 to. per cent. (9bn). (bn),7 (bn) First amount supplied as a -day repo. Second amount was an ordinary O/N repo. According to the Financial Times, this is about twice as much as normal. Three different repo tranches in the course of the weekend. Largest injection since the days following September. Bank of Canada 9 and August CAD.9bn Bank of Japan August August JPY bn JPY bn. per cent (average).9 per cent (average) O/N -week repo The Reserve Bank of Australia August AUD.9bn Twice the normal amount. Swiss National Bank 9 August. per cent (overnight) and. per cent (-week) Has supplied a fair amount of liquidity. Reuters estimates the injection on Thursday 9 August at CHF - bn. 9 August NOK bn. per cent (average) Ordinary F-loan auction with allotment rate of. per cent.

6 Key policy rates and forward rates As at previous monetary policy meeting and as at August 7 US Euro area Norway August 7 Market after MPR /7 (7 June) Jan Jan Jan 7 Jan 8 Jan 9 Jan Sources: Reuters (EcoWin), Bloomberg and 8 -month interest rate differential and import-weighted exchange rate (I-) ) January December 88 9 I- (left-hand scale) Average August August 7 Previous monetary Weighted interest policy meeting rate differential (7 June 7) (right-hand scale) ) A rising curve denotes an appreciation of the krone. - Sources: Bloomberg, Reuters (EcoWin) and

7 In million barrels per day.. Petroleum production in Norway January May 7 Per cent 8. Crude oil production (left-hand scale) Annual growth in total petroleum production (right-hand scale) Source: Norwegian Petroleum Directorate Oil price Brent Blend and futures prices USD per barrel.. January - August Previous monetary policy meeting ( June) August Sources: Telerate, IPE and

8 Gas price USD/ Sm Average prices for crude oil and natural gas 997 Q 7 Q ) Weighted average gas price Statoil/Hydro (left-hand scale) Oil price USD per barrel 8 7 Brent Blend, USD/barrel (right-hand scale) ) Gas price UK (left-hand scale) ) Norwegian gas (left-hand scale) ) Average daily figures to date in 7 Q. Sources: Reuters (EcoWin), Statistics Norway, Statoil, Norsk Hydro and Various inflation indicators -month change. Per cent. January July 7 CPI Weighted median per cent trimmed mean CPI-ATE Source: Statistics Norway

9 - - - CPI-ATE ) Total and by supplier sector. Projections MPR /7 -month rise. Per cent. July July 7 Goods and services produced in Norway (.7) ) CPI-ATE Imported consumer goods (.) ) ) A further adjustment is made for the estimated effect of new maximum day-care rates in. ) 's projections. Jul Jan Jul Jan Jul Jan Jul Jan 7 Jul Sources: Statistics Norway and 7 Labour market Employment In s Unemployment Per cent. Seasonally adjusted. QNA LFS unemployment 7 8 LFS ) Registered unemployed ) The changes to the LFS have resulted in a break in the time series between and. Sources: Statistics Norway and Norwegian Labour and Welfare Organisation (NAV) 8

10 Manufacturing output index Volume index. Seasonally adjusted -month moving average and trend 8 Trend 8 -month moving average Source: Statistics Norway 88 Capacity utilisation in manufacturing - Business tendency survey Per cent. 98 Q 7 Q Source: Statistics Norway

11 Enterprise sector credit ) and liquid assets ) -month growth. Per cent. January June 7 (C to April) - Money supply (M) Total credit (C) 7 - ) Mainland non-financial enterprises (C). ) Non-financial enterprises' liquid assets (M). Source: Statistics Norway Retail sales index and index of commodity consumption Volume. Seasonally adjusted. January June 7 Index of commodity consumption Retail sales index Jan Jan Jan Jan Jan Jan Jan Jan Sources: Statistics Norway and

12 House prices, household debt and the money supply Change on same month/quarter previous year. Per cent January July 7 (C and M June) House prices Debt and money supply Real estate business C Statistics Norway 8 M Sources: Norwegian Association of Real Estate Agents, Association of Real Estate Agency Firms, Finn.no, ECON, Statistics Norway and Household saving ratio and net lending as a share of disposable income, ) 98 Saving - Net lending ) There is a break in the series between 99 and 99. ) Adjusted for estimated reinvested share dividends for Sources: Statistics Norway and

13 Projections in Monetary Policy Report /7 Per cent. Q Q 9 8 Key policy rate % % 7% 9% - Output gap CPI CPI-ATE Sources: Statistics Norway and Monetary Policy Report /7 Monetary policy strategy - evaluation The interest rate path presented in MPR /7 reflects the Executive Board's trade-off between bringing inflation up to target and stabilising developments in output and employment. In the light of this trade-off, the interest rate will be increased gradually so that we can assess the effects of interest rate changes and other new information on economic developments. Given the inflation target, we will be mindful of the effects of higher interest rates on the krone exchange rate when inflation is low. The key policy rate should lie in the interval ½ ½% in the period to the publication of the next Report on October 7, conditional on economic developments that are broadly in line with the projections. 8