Executive Board meeting

Transcription

1 ..9 Executive Board meeting June 9 Equity markets Indices. January =. Daily figures. January June 9 Euro area Norway US Emerging economies Japan Jan- Jun- Nov- Apr- Sep- Feb-9 Jul-9 Source: Thomson Reuters and Norges Bank

2 ..9 Credit spreads between corporate and government bonds Per cent. Daily figures. January 99 June 9 High risk in euro area ) High risk in US Low risk in US Low risk in euro area ) 99 ) Credit rating lower than BBB- ) Credit rating higher than or equal to BBB- Source: Thomson Reuters -year government bond yields Daily figures. July June 9. Per cent. Left panel: Nominal interest yields. Right panel: Spread between nominal and real (TIPS) yields US Euro area Euro area US Jul- Jan- Jul- Jan-9 Jul-9 Jul- Jan- Jul- Jan-9 Jul-9 Source: Thomson Reuters and Norges Bank

3 ..9 Government bond yields Difference between -year and - year bonds. Basis points. Daily figures. January 999 June 9 MPR /9 US Euro area Sources: Thomson Reuters and Norges Bank Forward rates in Norway, US, euro area, Sweden and UK -year swap rates years ahead. Per cent. Daily figures. January June 9 Norway Euro area S d Sweden UK US MPR /9 Jan- May- Sep- Jan- May- Sep- Jan-9 May-9 Sources: Thomson Reuters and Norges Bank

4 ..9 Change in effective exchange rates G exchange rates. Per cent. Change since MPR /9. Figures as at June AUD GBP CAD NZD CHF SEK EUR JPY NOK USD -, % -, % -, % -, % -, %, %, %, %,9 %, % - % - % - % % % % % % % % Sources: Bloomberg and Norges Bank PMI Manufacturing Seasonally adjusted. Monthly figures. January May 9 US (ISM) UK Japan Euro area China India Russia 9 Source: Thomson Reuters

5 ..9 Manufacturing production Volume. -month change. Monthly figures. Per cent. January May US UK - - Euro area Japan Source: Thomson Reuters 9 Industrial production China ) Volume. -month change. Monthly figures. Per cent. January May 9 ) Includes energy production. Figures for January and February are calculated as average -month growth in order to avoid New Year effects. Sources: Thomson Reuters and CEIC

6 ..9 Oil price (Brent Blend) USD per barrel. Daily figures. January December Commodity prices In USD. Index, week = Week week 9 Spot..9 Commodity index Metals..9 Food Copper Sources Thomson Reuters and Norges Bank Spare production capacity in OPEC as share of global demand Q 9 Q,,,,,,,,,, 9 Sources: US Department of Energy/EIA

7 ..9 Crude oil stocks Left panel: OECD crude oil stocks measured by days of consumption cover in OECD. Monthly figures. January May 9. Right panel: US crude oil stocks. In millions of barrels 9 Sources: EIA and Norges Bank Actual and expected key rates as at March 9 and June 9 Per cent. January December US Euro area UK MPR /9 ( March) June 9 9 Sources: Thomson Reuters, Bloomberg and Norges Bank

8 Inflation CPIXE weights in brackets. Projections from MPR /9 (dotted). - month growth. Per cent. January December 9 Trend in energy prices (.) Domestically produced goods and services (.) Imported consumer goods (.) CPIXE Sources: Nord Pool, Statistics Norway and Norges Bank House prices Monthly growth. Seasonally adjusted. Per cent. January May Sources: Real estate industry (NEF, EFF, FINN.no and ECON Pöyry)

9 ..9 Regional network Share reporting some or considerable capacity problems November January 9 April 9 NORTH MID-NORW AY NORTH- IN- WEST LAND NORTH MID- NORWAY NORTH- IN- WEST LAND NORTH- WEST NORTH MID- NORWAY IN- LAND >% -% -% -% -% -% % SOUTH-WEST SOUTH-WEST SOUTH-WEST SOUTH EAST SOUTH EAST SOUTH EAST Sources: Norges Bank and regional network Growth in production Past months and months ahead, annualised Rising Rising past months months ahead Sources: Norges Bank and regional network 9

10 ..9 Investment statistics for the petroleum industry Estimated and actual investment (current prices). In billions of NOK May Aug Nov Feb May Aug Nov Feb Previous year Same year Actual 9 Source Statistics Norway 9 Manufacturing =. Trend. January 99 April 9 9 Metals (in total) Manufacturing, total Furniture Source: Statistics Norway

11 ..9 Unemployment Per cent. Seasonally adjusted. January 99 May 9 Registered unemployed and on labour market programmes LFS unemployment Registered unemployed poyed Sources: Statistics Norway and Norwegian Labour and Welfare Administration (NAV) Beveridge curve increasing mismatch between job vacancy and unemployment Seasonally adjusted. Monthly figures. January May 9 e Vacancies as percentage of labour force 9 May 9 January,,,,,,, Unemployed as percentage of labour force Sources: Norwegian Labour and Welfare Administration (NAV ) and Norges Bank 9

12 ..9 Registered unemployed from 9 og Per cent. Seasonally adjusted Sep- Dec Number of months Sources: Statistics Norway and Norwegian Labour and Welfare Administration (NAV) Spending on services and air travel -quarter change. Per cent. Q 9 Q Spending on services (left-hand scale) Air travel (right-hand scale) May Sources: Statistics Norway and AVINOR

13 ..9 Spending on services and hotel occupancy rates -quarter change. Per cent. Q 9 Q Spending on services (left-hand scale) - Hotel occupancy rates (right-hand scale) March and April Sources: Statistics Norway TNS Gallup s trend indicator for households Unadjusted and trend. Q 99 Q Trend Unadjusted Source: TNS Gallup

14 ..9 Bond issues in Norway ) In billions of NOK. January June 9 Finance companies and mortage companies) Banks Non-financials ) All VPS-registered issues ) Since the swap arrangement was implemented, the largest portion of covered bonds has been issued to parent banks. Source: Stamdata Bond spreads compared with swap rates Left panel: Norwegian bank bonds. Weekly figures. Week week 9. Right panel: German covered bonds. -day moving average. January June,,,, -years, -years Swap arrangement, -years per. Mov. Avg. ( år) -years per. Mov. Avg. ( år),,,,,,,,,,,, -, Jan- Jul- Jan- Jul- Jan-9 -, -, -, Jan- Jul- Jan- Jul- Jan-9 Jul-9 Sources: DnB NOR markets, Thomson Reuters and Norges Bank

15 ..9 9 Key policy rate, money market rate and banks weighted lending rate on new loans ) Per cent. May June 9 Mortgage rate Money market rate Key policy rate May- Aug- Nov- Feb- May- Aug- Nov- Feb-9 May-9 9 ) Interest rates on new mortgage loans of NOK m within % of purchase price with variable Sources: Norsk familieøkonomi AS and Norges interest rate. Figures for the largest banks, weighted according to market share. Bank Three-month money market rate differential ) and import-weighted exchange rate (I-) ) January December 9 I- (left-hand scale) June - June -month rate differential (right-hand scale) - - ) Difference between -month money market rates in Norway and trading partners. ) A rising curve denotes an appreciation of the krone. Sources: Bloomberg, Thomson Reuters and Norges Bank

16 ..9 Key policy rate Actual developments, projection and strategy interval. Per cent / / / / / / / / / / / / /. des. /9 MPR /9 9 /9 Strategy interval ¾ ¾ per cent Source: Norges Bank