The economic situation and monetary policy
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- Hope Rosemary Webster
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1 The economic situation and monetary policy Governor Svein Gjedrem Sandnessjøen, September Business Tendency Survey Labour shortages in manufacturing. Smoothed. Per cent. Quarterly figures Source: Statistics Norway
2 s key rate Sight deposit rate. Per Cent 999 Source: Employment, labour costs and mainland GDP in Norway. Annual growth. Per cent Labour costs GDP - Employment Sources: Statistics Norway and
3 Employment in cyclical upturns Development after the beginning of cyclical upturns. Index, quarter = 9 Q 9 Q 99 Q - 9 Number of quarters 9 Sources: Statistics Norway and Number of registered foreign workers from new EU member states. In thousands Q First 7 months Sources: Central Office - Foreign Tax Affairs and
4 Unemployed In thousands. Seasonally adjusted. Monthly figures. Jan 99 Aug Registered unemployed and on labour market programmes LFS unemployment ) 7 7 Registered unemployed ) A change in the LFS has caused a break in the time series between and Sources: Statistics Norway and the Directorate of Labour Labour force participation rate Annual figures Labour force participation rate (LFS) Labour force participation rate (LFS) demographic conditions = Sources: Statistics Norway and
5 's regional network Region Nord: Growth in most business sectors Business outlook is good for most industries Plans of increasing investment Moderate profitability growth Source: Employment by industry. Helgeland and nationwide. As a percentage of total employment ( Q) % Public administration and other services % Nationwide Helgeland % % % % Retail trade, hotel and restaurant Agriculture, forestry, fishing Manufacturing Commercial services Transport, Construction communications Financial services Utilities Extraction of oil and gas Source: Statistics Norway
6 Fish farming Production of salmon and trout. By county. tons. Preliminary figures. Hordaland Nordland Troms Sogn og Fjordane Nord- Rogaland Trøndelag Sør- Trøndelag Møre og Romsdal Finnmark Other counties Source: Statistics Norway Prices for fresh farmed salmon NOK per kilo Source: Statistics Norway
7 Registered unemployment Helgeland and Nationwide Weighted average of the unemployment rate in municipalities. Per cent Helgeland Nationwide 999 Sources: Directorate of Labour and Welfare, and Statistics Norway Consumer prices -month change. Monthly figures. Per cent CPI (right-hand scale) Energy prices (left-hand scale) Goods and services produced in Norway (right-hand scale) Imported consumer goods (right-hand scale) Sources: Statistics Norway and 7
8 Oil price (Brent Blend) and futures prices USD per barrel. Daily figures. January 9 August 7 9 August June IR / Sources: EcoWin, ICE, Reuters and Gas price USD/Sm Average prices on crude oil and natural gas Q 997 Q Natural gas, average of Statoil and Hydro (left-hand scale) Oil price USD/barrel 7 Oil price Brent Blend (right-hand scale) Gas price UK (left-hand scale) Norwegian export of natural gas (left-hand scale) Sources: EcoWin, ICE, Statistisk sentralbyrå, Statoil and Norsk Hydro
9 Investment in oil and gas recovery incl. pipeline transport ) Annual growth in per cent Level, in billions of NOK (constant prices) - - Annual growth (left-hand scale) Investment level (right-hand scale) ) Projections for period 9 Sources: Statistics Norway and Expected real return on the Government Pension Fund Global In billions of NOK. Annual figures. 9 Premium for forward price Expected real return (RNB ) Structural, non-oil deficit 7 9 Sources: Ministry of Finance (The Revised National Budget ) and 9
10 Metal and equity prices Indices. January =. Daily figures. January August Metal prices Equities Jan Feb Zinc Mar Apr May Jun Nickel Copper Aluminium Jul Aug 9 Jan Feb Euro Area Mar US Apr May Jun Jul Norway Japan Aug Sources: STOXX, S&P, Nikkei, Oslo Børs, FTSE and EcoWin Interest rate expectations Actual developments and expected key rate from IR / and on 9 August USA UK Euro Area Sweden August IR / ( June) Aug- Aug- Aug- Aug- Aug-7 Aug- Aug-9 Sources: Reuters and
11 Real growth in household disposable income and consumption. Per cent Real income growth Real growth in consumption Sources: Statistics Norway and Electricity price. NOK/MWh. Nord Pool January July. Forward prices. Q Q 7 9 August June 7 7 Sources: Nord Pool and
12 Housing market January July Housing starts (total over last months in thousands) House prices (NEF) (-month growth in per cent) - - Sources: Associations of real estate agents (NEF, EFF), ECON, Finn.no, and Statistics Norway Credit growth -month growth. Per cent Total credit to non-financial corporations, Mainland-Norway Total credit, Mainland-Norway Households - - Source:
13 Sight deposit rate in baseline scenario Quarterly figures. Per cent Source: Sight deposit rate Baseline scenario with fan chart. Quarterly figures. Per cent 7 9% 7% % % Source:
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Executive Board meeting October % % 7% 9% Baseline scenarios with fan charts in MPR / Percent 7-9 9 MPR / MPR / 7 - - - - Output gap 9 CPIXE 9 - - - Sources: Statistics Norway and Norges Bank Key policy
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