Chart 1 Oil investment and spending of petroleum revenues. In billions of 2016 NOK. Average annual change

Transcription

1 Chart Oil investment and spending of petroleum revenues. In billions of 6 NOK. Average annual change 3 3 Spending Investment 3 3 Sources: Statistics Norway and Norges Bank 3 6 3

2 Chart Key policy rates. Average of 5 and 6. Percent Nominal interest rate ) Real interest rate ) 3 Norway Sweden Denmark Finland ) Deposit rates are used for Denmark and Finland (euro area). ) Estimated real rate is adjusted for inflation, measured by the consumer price index, subtracted from the nominal key policy rate. Sources: Bloomberg, Statistics Norway, Thomson Reuters and Norges Bank 3

3 Chart 3 Changes in employment. From Q3 to 6 Q. In thousands of persons Oil related industries Hotel and restaurant Construction Public sector Other industries Sources: Statistics Norway and Norges Bank 3 3

4 Chart Norway s trade and current account balance. Percent of GDP Trade balance Current account balance Sources: Statistics Norway and Norges Bank

5 Chart 5 Working age population. Aged between 5 6. Average annual growth. Percent ).6.6. Advanced economies ) Norway ) The broken lines are projections for 6 3 from the United Nations medium fertility scenario and Statistics Norway s benchmark scenario. ) Europe, North America, Australia, New Zealand and Japan. Sources: Statistics Norway and United Nations

6 Chart 6 Productivity growth. GDP per hour worked. ) Annual growth. Percent Advanced economies ) Norway ) Trend estimated by HP filter with lambda =. ) A selection of OECD countries. Sources: Statistics Norway, The Conference Board Total Economy Database TM and Norges Bank

7 Chart 7 Growth in technology leading countries and in Norway. GDP per capita. Annual growth. ) Percent 3 UK US Norway ) The chart shows average annual growth over different periods. Sources: Broadberry, S., B. Campbell, A. Klein, M. Overton and B. van Leeuwen () "British Economic Growth, 7 87: an output based approach", Discussion Papers 3. University of Kent School of Economics, FRED database, the Maddison Project (3), Statistics Norway and Norges Bank

8 Chart 8 Norwegian productivity growth. GDP per hour worked excluding oil. ) Constant prices. Annual growth. Percent Capital contribution Contribution from education ) Total factor productivity (TFP) ) Estimates 6 3. )The estimation is based on a method provided by Hall, R. and C. Jones (998) "Why do some countries produce so much more output per worker than others". NBER Working Paper 656. The marginal contribution from education equals 6 percent. Sources: Statistics Norway and Norges Bank

9 Chart 9 GDP per capita in China. At constant 99 USD Sources: The Maddison Project (3) and World Bank

10 Chart Global manufacturing production. Percentage shares China US EU Source: World Bank

11 Chart Persons living in poverty. ) Billions of persons Other countries China ) Living at less than USD.9 per day at constant prices (PPP). Source: World Bank

12 Chart Income growth in the US. Constant prices. Index. 98 = 5 5 5% lowest income % highest income Source: Piketty, T., E. Saez and G. Zucman (6) "Distributional national accounts: Methods and estimates for the United States". NBER Working Paper 95

13 Chart 3 Global warming. Deviations in earth s surface temperature relative to ) Degrees Celsius ) Four year moving average. Source: Met Office Hadley Centre / Climatic Research Unit

14 Chart Price of emission. NOK per tonne of CO equivalent. 6 Oil and gas Domestic air transport Personal vehicles Domestic sea transport Fishing ETS ) manuf. sector ) Agriculture ) Sectors covered by the EU Emissions Trading System. ) Allowance equals NOK 5 per tonne of CO. Source: Ministry of Finance

15 Chart 5 Fiscal spending of petroleum revenues. Share of mainland trend GDP. Percent Structural non oil budget deficit % of GPFG ) ) Government Pension Fund Global. Source: Ministry of Finance

16 Chart 6 Probability of 5 percent decline in the size of the GPFG ) over a ten year horizon. ) Percent 7 7 Spending in initial year: 6 5 3% of GPFG % of GPFG Equity share: 6% Equity share: 75% ) Government Pension Fund Global. ) Estimated probability given variable oil revenues, return on the GPFG, other government revenues and spending of oil revenues. The estimates are based on a model described in NBIM (6) "Asset allocation with government revenues and spending commitments". Discussion Note /6. Source: Norges Bank