Challenges for tomorrow: the Greek economy and the health care sector

Transcription

1 1 Challenges for tomorrow: the Greek economy and the health care sector Nikos Vettas Professor, Athens University of Economics and Business General Director of IOBE Athens, June 2 nd nd AESGP Annual Meeting The future of self-care: Shaping the new environment

2 thousand GDP per capita Εuro area (12 countries) Greece Source : AMECO 2

3 Key Macroeconomic and Financial Figures Key Macroeconomic Figures * GDP Unemployment General Government Balance Current Account Balance Harmonised Inflation Gross Fixed Capital Formation Including State aid to the banking sector on the deficit * IOBE projections Sources: Eurostat/European Economic Forecast, spring 216, European Commission 3

4 Real effective exchange rate Real Effective Exchange Rate (CPI), 25=1 Real Effective Exchange Rate (ULC), 25= Greece Portugal Greece Portugal Source: Eurostat Real Effective Exchange Rate (deflator: CPI - against 37 trading partners) Real Effective Exchange Rate (deflator: unit labor costs in total economy - against 37 trading partners) 4

5 Investments Gross Fixed Capital Formation (% of GDP) Euro area (12 countries) Greece Source: AMECO 5

6 Foreign Direct Investment (% of GDP) 6% FDI as a % of GDP 5% 4% 3% 2% 1% % Germany 3.% 1.7% Ireland 21.% 27.9% Greece 1.1%.6% Spain 4.2% 2.1% Portugal 3.7% 4.3% -1% Germany Ireland Greece Spain Portugal Source: Eurostat 6

7 billion Trade balance (Goods and Services) ,3-19,5-12,9-6,6-4,5-4,9-2,9-2,6-2, -4-31,8 Balance Imports of goods and services Exports of goods and services Sources: ELSTAT/European Economic Forecast, spring 216, European Commission 7

8 Harmonized Inflation 6% 5% 4% 3% 2% 1% % -1% -2% ΕA-19 Greece Sources: Eurostat/European Economic Forecast, spring 216, European Commission 8

9 Budget Primary Balance (% of GDP) Greece ΕA-19 Source: European Economic Forecast, spring 216, European Commission 9

10 % GDP Pensions Payments (% of GDP) 17, 15, 13, 11, 9, 7, 5, Greece EA-18 Sources: Social Budget 29, Ministry of Labour & Social Security, 21/Eurostat 1

11 Public spending on Health (% of GDP) EA-19 Greece 11

12 Public Spending categories (% of GDP) Defence Health Education Source: Eurostat 12

13 % population Poverty and social exclusion Greece ΕA-18 Source : Eurostat 13

14 Direct taxation (% of GDP) 14% 12% 1% 8% 6% 4% 2% % Direct Taxation - Total Profits-Income Real Estate Property Past Years * Projection ** Forecast Source: State Budget, , Ministry of Finance 14

15 Public Revenue- Expenditure Primary Balance (% of GDP) Gen. Government Expenditure (l.h.s.) Gen. Government Revenue (l.h.s.) Primary Balance (r.h.s.) 15

16 USA The Netherlands Switzerland Germany Sweden France Denmark Canada (1) Belgium Japan Austria New Zealand (1) Portugal (1) Spain (2) Norway Avg OECD Italy Australia (2) Slovenia Iceland Greece Finland UK Ireland (2) Slovakia Israel (1) Hungary Chile Chezh Rep. Korea Luxemburg (2) Poland Mexico Estonia Turkey % GDP Health expenditure, 213 (% GDP) Source: OECD, Health Data 215,SHA, (1) Estimations (2) Data

17 -7,2-4,3-4 -3,3-1,6-1,6-2,3 -,4 -,8 -,3 -,2 -,1,5,3,5,5,6,9 1, ,3,8 1,3 1,7 2,2 1,7 1,7 2 2,3 3,5 3,4 3,2 3,6 3,2 3,4 3,3 2,8 5,4 5,3 5,4 6,7 8,4 11,3 Average per capita health expenditure growth, vs Πηγή: OECD, Health Statistics

18 Health Expenditure, Public Health Expenditure (in mil. ) health expenditure mil.euro Current health expenditure Current public health expenditure Πηγές: System Health Accounts 213, EL.STAT, 215, Data processing: ΙΟΒΕ 18

19 Per capita net public pharmaceutical expenditure in Greece, EU and EZ Greece EU (22) EZ (17) Source: System of Health Accounts (SHA) 213, EOPYY 214, State Budget 214: Executive Summary, OECD Health Data 215, Eurostat, data processing IOBE. 19

20 Breakdown of NHS hospitals expenditures, (in mil. ) Medicines Medical Supplies Orthopedical materials Chemical Reactors Services Outsourcing/ other expenses Total - Source: Ministry of Health 2

21 Monthly average pharmaceutical purchases and receipts in the kind of households, % 9% 8% 7% 6% 5% 4% 3% 2% 1% 1,1% 1,5% 1,5% 1,5% 1,4% 1,5% 2,3% 2,9% 2,6% 2,3% 3,3% 2,3% 1,7% 1,5% 1,7% 9,7% 9,3% 9,2% 8,5% 8,7% 7,8% 21,2% 2,1% 29,8% 29,4% 15,2% 17,5% 18,% 17,3% 26,7% 2,% 23,3% 23,3% 19,3% 19,2% 22,1% 22,1% 14,3% 18,8% 27,4% 27,4% 11,7% 1,8% 16,1% 27,9% 15,% 29,3% 32,4% 33,3% % Pharmaceutical products Hospital services Dental services Medical services Paramedical services Therapeutic appliances and equipment Source: EL.STAT. 215, data processing IOBE During the economic crisis period there was a shift of household expenditure towards pharmaceuticals and hospital care. 21

22 Added Value Pharmaceutical Sector Production mil. (21) % 1. 4,6% 5,% ,% 746 3,4% 672 2,8% 3,4% 3,8% 3,2% ,% 2,9% 3,1% 4,5% 4,% 3,5% 3,% ,5% 2,% 3 1,5% 2 1,% 1,5% ,% Value added mil. (21=1) Share of pharmaceutical sector in total manufacturing Source: Eurostat,215, data processing IOBE 22

23 Pharmaceutical sales in value, Greece, (bln ) bil. euro ,55 7, 6,3 5, ,61 3,96 3, ,47 1,47 1,31 1,2 1,36 1,34 1, Pharmacies/Wholesalers Hospitals/EOPYY farmacies Approximately 73,5% of total sales were supplied to wholesalers and private pharmacies and 26,5% of sales to hospitals & EOPPY pharmacies Source: EOF 215 (Pharmacies/Wholesalers at retail prices and Hospitals at hospital prices) 23

24 Pharmaceutical Sales in Greece, volume, mil. packages 6 566,5 562, ,2 512,4 479,4 484,6 493, , 465,8 434,3 424,3 394,8 44,6 416,1 1 97,5 96,8 86,9 88,1 84,5 8, 77, Pharmacies/Wholesalers Hospitals/EOPYY farmacies Total Source: EOF 215 *Possible smaller packaging replacements 24

25 OTC sales, (in mil. ) mil.euro mil.euro ,4 292,3 95, ,2 83, Value Volume Source: AESGP, 215, IMS, 215 Note: Depending on the source of information used, there may be deviations over EOFs sales data. 25

26 OTC total Sales across countries, 214 Germany Brazil Poland Italy Mexico UK Ukraine Spain Austria Netherlands Switzerland Belgium Sweden Argentina Hungary Greece Finland Portugal New Zealand Denmark Lithuania Latvia Croatia Estonia Turkey OTC share in Greece is among the lowest compared with the rest of Europe. However, the respective market shares depend crucially on the range of non-prescription medicines included in each country. Source: AESGP, 215 *Note: Different definition of OTC in Greece and other European counties 26

27 OTC sales by group in Greece, in mil. OTC groups %13/14 % of total, 214 Cough and cold % 19.9% Analgesics % 2.2% Digestives % 7.3% Skin treatment % 8.6% Vitamins and minerals % 23.% Others % 2.9% Total % 1% From July 216, 216 OTC pharmaceutical products (from a total of 1.582), will be available from supermarkets (except pharmacies) 87% of OTC will be available only from pharmacies 13% of OTC will be available and from other sales points Strict criteria in order to ensure that the easy access won t be detrimental for the public health Vitamins and Minerals had the greatest share of the market, followed by analgesics and cold remedies Source: AESGP, 215, data processing IOBE 27

28 Thank you 28