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1 Experiences in Japan: Case of Inflation Indexed Bonds Yukinobu Kitamura Hitotsubashi University 30 January 2009
2 First Inflation Indexed Bonds issued in 1742, Massachusetts, USA
3 Global Markets for Inflation Indexed Bonds Country Issue Date Index Used Argentina Non-agricultural wholesale price Australia Consumer prices 1991 Average weekly earnings Austria 1953 Electricity prices Brazil Wholesale prices General prices Canada Consumer prices Chile Consumer prices Colombia 1967 Wholesale prices Consumer prices Czech Republic Consumer prices Denmark Consumer prices Finland Wholesale prices France 1952,1973 Gold price 1956 Level of industrial production 1956 Average value of French securities 1957 Price of equities Greece Consumer prices Hungary Consumer prices Iceland Consumer prices Cost of building index Credit Terms Index Consumer prices Ireland Consumer prices Israel Consumer prices Italy 1983 Deflator of GDP at factor cost Mexico Consumer prices New Zealand Consumer prices Consumer prices Norway 1982 Consumer prices Poland Consumer prices Sweden 1952 Consumer prices Consumer prices Turkey Wholesale prices Consumer prices United Kingdom Consumer prices Consumer prices United States 1742,1780 Commodity prices Consumer prices Source: Deacon and Derry (1998) Table 1.1, p.6. Note: In addition to government bonds, this table includes issues by public corporations, semi-government authorities, and those that carry a government guarantee.
4 International Comparisons of Structures in Indexed Bonds United States United Kingdom France Italy Canada Japan Time of Introduction January 1997 March 1981 September 1998 December 2003 December 1991 March 2004 type of CPI CPI-U (urban CPI) RPI (Retail Price Index) CPI (except tobacco), HICP (except tobacco HICP (except tobacco) CPI Core CPI Linked CPI Lag three months three or eight months three months three months three months three months Principal Guaranteed Yes No Yes Yes No No Term Years 5, 10, 20, 30 years 6-50 years 4,10, 15,30 years 5,10,15,30 years 30 years 10 years Interest Payment Frequency twice a year twice a year once a year twice a year twice a year twice a year Strips OK No No OK No No Amount of Issue US$536.2 billion ( 4830 billion) October 2008 UK 157 billion ( 2140 billion) September 2008 Euro billion ( 1920 billion) September 2008 Euro 83.7 billion ( 1060 billion) October 2008 CA$31.5 billion ( 340 billion) November billion December 2008 Source: Treasury Department of the United States, Debt Management Office of United Kingdom, the Department of Treasury of Italy, Bank of Canada, Ministry i of Finance of Japan and the Bank of Japan (Mizuho Securities) i
5 Issue Records in Japan Issue April 2007 June August October December February April June August 2008 Amount of Issue (billion yen) Month of Interest Payment September, March December June March, September June, December March, September June, December Month of Redemption March June September December March June Base Month December March June September December March Note: August and February are basically reopen.
6 Outstanding Amounts March 2004 March 2005 March 2006 March 2007 December 2007 March 2008 December Note: Time is at the end of the month. Billion yen.
7 Holders of Indexed Bonds In UK, 80% are life insurance and pension funds. In USA, the major holders are investment (mutual) funds. In Japan, 70% are the foreign institutional investors such as pension funds, life insurance and hedge funds.
8 Why the Japanese Investors are so reluctant to hold indexed bonds? Low prospects in future inflation. Public pension funds are not afraid of inflation because inflation risk can be hedged by increases in tax revenue. Institutional investors are reluctant to introduce new operation and accounting system that can handle indexed bonds. Market liquidity is still low.
9 Future Prospects In the long run, inflation i indexed d bonds will be included in the portfolio of annuity products. In order to be recognized as one of the most useful inflation hedging instruments, the Government has to advertize the inflation indexed bonds more extensively and perhaps to provide a special tax incentive.
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