Turkey s Saving Deficit Issue From an Institutional Perspective

Transcription

1 Turkey s Saving Deficit Issue From an Institutional Perspective Engin KURUN, Ph.D CEO, Ziraat Asset Management Oct. 25th, Istanbul 1

2 PRESENTATION Household and Institutional Savings Institutional Investors Perspective Policy Issues Global Outlook 2

3 COMPOSITION SAVINGS 3

4 CURRENT ACCOUNT DEFICIT 4

5 MUTUAL FUND ASSETS EUROZONE (Mio. Eur) TOTAL NET ASSETS Equity Funds Bond Funds Austria ,0% 51,1% 13,5% 3,3% 16,1% 1,1% Belgium ,1% 10,5% 20,5% 2,6% 20,3% 0,0% Bulgaria ,5% 6,5% 25,8% 33,9% 0,3% 0,0% Czech Republic ,9% 15,5% 22,4% 33,3% 15,9% 0,0% Denmark ,1% 56,3% 3,2% 0,0% 0,4% 0,0% Finland ,2% 28,1% 14,3% 20,1% 0,0% 0,3% France ,5% 16,8% 22,0% 31,4% 0,0% 1,3% Germany ,9% 20,5% 21,7% 3,4% 0,0% 6,6% Greece ,7% 33,6% 17,2% 15,4% 8,1% 0,0% Hungary ,0% 11,9% 0,7% 52,2% 10,2% 4,0% Ireland Italy ,4% 36,6% 29,4% 19,7% 0,0% 0,0% Liechtenstein ,1% 17,8% 11,2% 3,3% 1,3% 52,3% Luxembourg ,6% 30,1% 16,1% 14,4% 0,0% 6,8% Netherlands ,5% 20,0% 15,8% 0,0% 0,0% 19,8% Norway ,2% 21,8% 3,7% 18,7% 0,0% 0,7% Poland ,1% 15,1% 16,3% 14,6% 0,6% 19,3% Portugal ,4% 27,0% 11,1% 14,4% 5,7% 23,4% Romania ,3% 18,8% 4,5% 52,6% 0,1% 20,7% Slovakia ,7% 14,6% 15,7% 47,8% 8,1% 7,1% Slovenia ,6% 3,8% 28,7% 1,0% 1,7% 0,2% Spain ,3% 42,8% 22,4% 4,5% 0,0% 0,0% Sweden ,9% 5,8% 17,3% 6,2% 5,5% 1,3% Switzerland ,1% 23,6% 37,7% 8,6% 0,0% 0,0% Turkey ,6% 7,6% 8,9% 77,3% 0,1% 2,6% United Kingdom ,2% 18,0% 8,9% 0,5% 7,2% 8,2% TOTAL ,0% 27,6% 18,8% 21,7% 1,8% 5,4% Source: EFAMA Quarterly Statistics, June 2011 Balanced funds Money market funds Funds of funds Others 5

6 MUTUAL FUNDS IN/OUTFLOWS Table 4. Net Assets of the European UCITS Industry 30/06/ /03/ /12/2010 Members EUR m Share EUR m % chg (1) EUR m % chg (2) Austria 80, % 82, % 84, % Belgium 87, % 88, % 91, % Bulgaria % % % Czech Republic 4, % 4, % 4, % Denmark 66, % 67, % 67, % Finland 52, % 53, % 53, % France 1,172, % 1,196, % 1,210, % Germany 247, % 247, % 249, % Greece 6, % 7, % 7, % Hungary 9, % 9, % 9, % Ireland 769, % 752, % 758, % Italy 161, % 167, % 175, % Liechtenstein 26, % 27, % 26, % Luxembourg 1,857, % 1,869, % 1,880, % Netherlands 62, % 62, % 64, % Norw ay 67, % 67, % 63, % Poland 19, % 19, % 19, % Portugal 7, % 8, % 8, % Romania 1, % 1, % 1, % Slovakia 3, % 3, % 3, % Slovenia 1, % 2, % 2, % Spain 162, % 165, % 164, % Sw eden 157, % 161, % 162, % Sw itzerland (3) 207, % 194, % 207, % Turkey 12, % 13, % 15, % United Kingdom 673, % 675, % 675, % All Funds 5,921, % 5,949, % 6,007, % (1) End June 2011 compared to end M arch 2011; (2) end June 2011 compared to end December 2010; (3) the asset growth reflects a growing number of funds captured by Swiss data. 6

7 MUTUAL FUND PER CAPITA GDP per capita (USD) Mutual Fund per capita (USD) Mutual fund per capita excluding MM funds (USD) S.Korea , , ,35 Brazil , , ,15 S.Africa 7.102, , ,12 Poland ,31 669,29 590,55 Hungary , Czech ,00 528,85 288,46 Mexico 9.245,32 748,62 281,77 China 4.284,22 258,02 245,34 India 1.176,95 96,63 82,3 Turkey ,80 268,91 60,22 Russia ,32 25,64 25,64 MUTUAL FUND / GDP EQUITIES / GDP U.S FRANCE BRAZIL CANADA S. KOREA JAPAN MEXICO ITALY GERMANY HUNGARY 9 9 INDIA 7 43 CHINA 6 50 PORTUGAL 5 43 CZECH REP GREECE 3 22 TURKEY

8 EUROPEAN BANKS TOTAL EXPOSURE TURKEY: bn GREECE: bn ITALY: bn GERMANY: 1.3 tn U.K: 2 tn 8

9 POLICY ISSUES - I Financial system in Turkey is heavily depending on Banking sector (approx. 82%) and savings are mostly allocated to bank deposits (approx. 70%) Managed funds have only 8% share on total household savings. GDP growth should be consistent in order to increase savings but because of young age population in Turkey, it is not possible to accumulate ages are best period for saving purpose therefore we hope to increase savings as Turkish population becomes older. Government policies for pension funds are not supportive enough. We need new regulations on asset management side. Public funds should be managed by the private asset management companies. We may start this solution with currently discussed Severance Pay reform. 9

10 POLICY ISSUES - II We believe it is possible to increase savings through pension funds via 50% defined contribution and 50% defined benefit. There should be some tax improvements on capital market instruments, in order to develop these markets. Public funds and pension funds will accelerate savings growth. Turkish Sovereign Wealth Fund should be established and this fund should invest strategic sectors on equity side and long end of the yield curve on bonds side. In future this fund may invest abroad. We belive if such improvement occurs whole portfolio or at least part of it will be given to private asset managers. Global crises shows us the importance of portfolio protection. We need more financial instruments especially on derivatives. Recently published Medium Term Program for Turkish Economy and Istanbul International Financial Center project will also fuel a.m. issues. 10

11 ASSET MANAGEMENT GLOBAL OUTLOOK 11

12 USE OF HEDGING INSTRUMENTS 12