PENSIONS IN OECD COUNTRIES: INDICATORS AND DEVELOPMENTS

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1 PENSIONS IN OECD COUNTRIES: INDICATORS AND DEVELOPMENTS Marius Lüske Directorate for Employment, Labour and Social Affairs, OECD Lisbon,

2 OUTLINE Talk based on recent OECD publications: Pensions at a Glance Preventing Ageing Unequally 1. Indicators of the current situation 2. How do OECD countries reform their pension systems? 2

3 1. INDICATORS OF THE CURRENT SITUATION 3

4 Demographics: the old-age dependency ratio is expected to almost double by 2050 in OECD countries (and more than double in Portugal). Number of people older than 65 years per 100 people of working age (20-64), 2015 and Source: Pensions at a Glance Japan Italy Finland Germany Portugal Sweden France Denmark Greece Latvia Estonia United Kingdom Belgium Spain Austria Netherlands Switzerland Slovenia Czech Republic OECD Hungary Norway Canada New Zealand Australia United States Poland Iceland Ireland Luxembourg Slovak Republic Israel Korea Chil e Turkey Mexico 4

5 Demographics: Life expectancy keeps rising while the effective labour market exit age is lower today than 40 years ago. Life expectancy at age 65 and age of effective labour market exit: evolution (in years) since 1975, OECD average (24 countries) 5 Change in life expectancy at age 65 since Change in effective labour market exit age since 1975 Source: OECD Health Statistics, OECD calculations 5

6 Employment rates fall sharply with age Employment rates of workers aged 55 to 59, 60 to 64 and 65 to 69 in 2016 Source: Pensions at a Glance OECD OECD OECD Iceland Sweden Switzerland Czech Republic Den mark New Zealand Japan Norway Germany Finland Estonia United Kingdom Neth erlands Israel Korea Latvia Can ada France Slovak Republic Australia Hun gary Chile United States Austria Ireland Portugal Belgium Italy Poland Mexico Spain Luxembourg Slovenia Greece Turkey 6

7 Growth of employment rates of older workers has been strong in most OECD countries, but not in Portugal. Change in employment rates, , percentage points Percentage point difference Source: Pensions at a Glance 2017 Turkey Greece Iceland Portugal Mexico United States Norway Switzerland Korea Japan Sweden Ireland Spain Denmark United Kingdom Luxembourg Canada OECD France Slovenia Chile Australia Poland Belgium Finland New Zealand Israel Austria Czech Republic Estonia Italy Latvia Netherlands Slovak Republic Hungary Germany

8 France Luxembourg Spain Italy Greece Portugal United States Canada Japan Ireland Mexico Germany OECD New Zealand Sweden Iceland Finland Netherlands United Kingdom Switzerla nd Denmark Czech Republic Latvia Korea Estonia Retirement income: How well older people fare compared to the young differs across countries Incomes of the 65+ as % of total population incomes, 2014 or latest available Source: Pensions at a Glance

9 Retirement income: Material deprivation is an issue among older people in several European countries Percentage of the 65+ who cannot afford at least 3 out of 9 clearly defined items or services (e.g. TV, car, eating meat or fish every other day) 40% 35% % of the 65+, % 25% 20% 15% 10% 5% 0% Norway Sweden Switzerland Luxembourg Iceland Denmark United Kingdom Netherlands Austria Finland Belgium Germany France Spain Ireland Czech Republic OCDE25 Estonia Slovenia Poland Portugal Italy Slovak Republic Hungary Lithuania Greece Source: Eurostat 9

10 Pension-benefit expenditures account for a considerable part of GDP spending in several countries Gross public pension expenditure as % of GDP, 2016 Source: The 2018 Ageing Report 10

11 2. HOW DO OECD COUNTRIES REFORM THEIR PENSION SYSTEMS? 11

12 Pension reform in OECD countries between 2013 and 2015 Source: Pensions at a Glance

13 and between 2015 and 2017 Source: Pensions at a Glance

14 Automatic adjustments Main idea is to reduce political pressure Links between retirement ages and life expectancy in Denmark, Finland, Italy, the Netherlands, Portugal and the Slovak Republic Automatic adj. in funded DC schemes: pricing of annuities Automatic adj. in NDC for new pensions: ITA, LVA, NOR, POL, SWE Adjustments to dependency ratio or public finances: Germany, Japan, Portugal, Spain, Sweden

15 Many OECD countries raise normal retirement ages Normal pension age for a man with a full career from age 20, 2016 and future Source: Pensions at a Glance

16 Raising retirement ages? Life expectancy at birth keeps rising and most of additional years are in good health Gains in life expectancy at birth (total and healthy), OECD countries, Source: Pensions at a Glance

17 Raising retirement ages? But life expectancy and work capacity is not the same for everybody Life expectancy gaps between high-educated and low-educated men at age 65 (around 2011) Country Difference (in years) Italy 2.3 Canada 2.4 United Kingdom 2.9 Sweden 2.8 France 3.2 United States 2.7 Belgium 5.6 Chile 6.2 Czech Republic 6.2 Hungary 6.9 Source: Preventing Ageing Unequally 17

18 Mandatory contribution rates are high in a number of OECD countries Mandatory contribution rates for an average worker in 2016 Source: Pensions at a Glance

19 For more information: Pensions at a Glance 2017 Preventing Ageing Unequally Pensions Outlook

20 120 Retirement income: Future net replacement rates will vary across countries and income-groups Net future replacement rates by earnings level United Kingdom Mexico Source: Pensions at a Glance 2017 Poland Japan Chile Ireland Australia New Zealand Switzerland Korea Norway United States Germany Canada Greece Sweden Slovenia average low high Estonia Latvia Czech Republic Finland Belgium France Israel Iceland Denmark Spain Slovak Republic Luxembourg Hungary Austria Italy Portugal Netherlands Turkey 20