ECFIN-C3 (2009) PART 1 MAIN DEVELOPMENTS

Transcription

1 ECFIN-C3 (2009) PART 1 MAIN DEVELOPMENTS

2 Methodological note Since the issue for the second quarter of 2004, nominal and real effective exchange rates presented in this report are calculated based on a reference group of 41 countries. By extending the group of reference countries from 24 countries to 41 countries, over percent of extra-euro area exports instead of 58 percent are covered. The effective exchange rate calculations consequently better reflect trade patterns. The reference group of 41 countries has been constructed by extending the former IC24 group (which includes the initial 15 EU countries, Norway, Switzerland, Australia, the United States, Canada, Japan, Mexico, New Zealand and Turkey) with the twelve recently acceded Member States, Russia, China, Brazil, Korea and Hong Kong. Due to data constraints, real effective exchange rates based on unit labour costs cannot be calculated for this group. Therefore, for the time being, only real effective exchange rates calculated to measure price competitiveness (i.e., based on consumer price indices) are based on this new reference group ( broad group ). Real effective exchange rates calculated to measure cost competitiveness are based on a reference group of 36 countries (the former IC24 group plus the twelve recently acceded Member States). The broad group is included in the tables and charts where appropriate. In the tables and charts on pages 1 to 76 of part 2, each country s relative position is assessed with respect to the rest of 36 countries (the EU27 countries, Norway, Australia, Canada, Japan, the United States, Mexico, New Zealand, Turkey and Switzerland), with the European Union and with the euro area. Diverging movements in costs and prices may change the relative competitiveness positions of Member States. This report presents five measures of the real effective exchange rate of individual countries, EU27 and the euro area (EA16). The different measures (abbreviations for the deflators are explained in the Annex) do not always give a uniform picture of the movement over time in the real effective exchange rate of a given country against its partners and, as such, the indicators of cost and price competitiveness need to be interpreted carefully. 1

3 DATA ON PRICE AND COST COMPETITIVENESS QUARTERLY REPORT FIRST AND SECOND QUARTER 2009 I. INTERNATIONAL DEVELOPMENTS 1. BILATERAL EXCHANGE RATES OF THE O Chart 1: The euro against and since launch of the euro Index = appreciation of euro Chart 2: The euro against and CHF since launch of the euro Index = CHF 01/99 01/00 01/01 01/02 01/03 01/04 01/05 01/06 01/07 01/08 01/09 01/99 01/00 01/01 01/02 01/03 01/04 01/05 01/06 01/07 01/08 01/09 Chart 3: The euro against SEK and PLN since launch of the euro Index = Chart 4: The euro against RUB and CNY since launch of the euro Index = RUB SEK PLN CNY 01/99 01/00 01/01 01/02 01/03 01/04 01/05 01/06 01/07 01/08 01/09 01/99 01/00 01/01 01/02 01/03 01/04 01/05 01/06 01/07 01/08 01/09 Table 1: Evolution of the bilateral exchange rates of euro area's main trading partners Change relative to previous periods (quarterly averages; pre-1999: synthetic euro) previous quarter previous year medium-term avg. previous quarter previous year medium-term avg. Q2-09/Q1-09 Q2-09/Q2-08 Q2-09/avg Q2-09/Q1-09 Q2-09/Q2-08 Q2-09/avg / 4.6% -12.7% 16.3% SEK/ -1.5% 15.3% 18.9% / 8.6% -18.8% -0.1% PLN/ -1.0% 30.7% 15.0% / -3.3% 10.8% 25.9% RUB/ -1.5% 18.6% 74.7% CHF/ 1.1% -6.1% -3.5% CNY/ 4.5% -14.3% -1.7%

4 2. NOMINAL EFFECTIVE EXCHANGE RATES index = Chart 5: Nominal effective exchange rates of the euro NEER vs rest of broad group (41) bilateral / Jan-99 Jan-00 Jan-01 Jan-02 Jan-03 Jan-04 Jan-05 Jan-06 Jan-07 Jan-08 Jan-09 Table 2: Nominal effective exchange rates (vs. broad group (41), index average 1999 = ) Second quarter of 2009 (monthly averages) Apr-09 May-09 Jun USA Japan UK Change relative to previous periods previous quarter Q2-09/Q1-09 previous year Q2-09/Q2-08 medium-term avg Q2-09/avg % 0.9% 22.1% -4.8% 14.3% -3.3% -7.0% 17.0% 12.2% 4.2% -11.9% -14.6% average = 1 Chart 6: Nominal effective exchange rates vs IC24 since 19 (monthly averages)

5 3. PRICE COMPETITIVENESS BASED ON CPI (HICP WHEN AVAILABLE) average 1999 = Chart 7: Real effective exchange rates vs broad group (41) (deflated by CPI --HICP for EU Member States when available--, quarterly data) Table 3: Real effective exchange rates (CPI / HICP deflated) (vs. broad group (41), index average 1999 = ) Most recent four quarters Q3-08 Q4-08 Q1-09 Q2-09 Change relative to previous periods previous quarter Q2-09/Q1-09 previous year Q2-09/Q2-08 medium-term avg Q2-09/avg EA % -1.1% 7.8% USA % 10.8% -5.5% Japan % 14.0% -9.8% UK % -10.7% -18.3% average = Chart 8: Real effective exchange rates vs IC24 since 19 (deflated by CPI --HICP for EU Member States when available--, quarterly data)

6 4. COST COMPETITIVENESS BASED ON UNIT LABOUR COSTS IN TOTAL ECONOMY average 1999 = Chart 9: Real effective exchange rates vs IC36 (deflated by Unit Labour Costs in total economy, quarterly data) Table 4: Real effective exchange rates (ULCE deflated) (vs. 36 countries, index average 1999 = ) Most recent four quarters Q3-08 Q4-08 Q1-09 Q2-09 Change relative to previous periods previous quarter Q2-09/Q1-09 previous year Q2-09/Q2-08 medium-term avg Q2-09/avg EA % 0.9% 10.0% USA % 12.5% -7.2% Japan % 17.2% -17.4% UK % -12.7% -14.5% average = Chart 10: Real effective exchange rates vs IC24 since 19 (deflated by Unit Labour Costs in total Economy, quarterly data)

7 5. COMPETITIVENESS OF THE USA AND JAPAN RELATIVE TO THE O AREA Chart 11: Price and cost indicators for USA and Japan relative to euro area (EA16) REER: USA vs. EA16 average 1999 = ULCE HICP PGDP PX REER: Japan vs. EA16 average 1999 = ULCE HICP PGDP PX Table 5: Relative price and cost indicators of USA and Japan relative to euro area (EA15) over last quarter over last year compared to medium term average Q2-09/Q1-09 Q2-09/Q2-08 Q2-09/avg % change ULCE PGDP PX HICP ULCE PGDP PX HICP ULCE PGDP PX HICP USA -4.4% -4.3% -6.2% -4.1% 13.2% 14.9% 11.7% 13.1% -14.1% -12.9% -11.4% -13.0% Japan -8.6% -7.8% -8.9% -8.7% 21.2% 22.4% 15.4% 21.8% -23.4% -20.1% -17.7% -16.1% Chart 12: Real effective exchange rates: and vs euro area since 19 average = (deflated by Unit Labour Costs in total economy, quarterly data)

8 II. DEVELOPMENTS AT MEMBER STATE LEVEL Table 6: Relative price and cost price indicators: intra euro area over last quarter over last year compared to medium term average Q2-09/Q1-09 Q2-09/Q2-08 Q2-09/avg % change ULCE PGDP PX HICP ULCE PGDP PX HICP ULCE PGDP PX HICP BLEU 0.2% 0.3% 0.7% -0.2% 0.5% 0.4% 1.6% -0.5% 1.9% 0.9% 11.5% 0.3% Germany 0.8% 0.0% 0.1% -0.7% 0.8% -0.7% -0.8% -0.1% -11.2% -9.7% -9.6% -4.9% Greece 0.1% 0.0% 0.6% 0.7% -0.1% 0.7% 2.7% 0.5% 8.7% 8.0% 11.8% 6.4% Spain -0.8% -0.2% 0.0% 0.5% -1.8% 0.0% 0.6% -0.9% 5.9% 10.8% 8.6% 5.9% France -0.5% 0.0% -0.3% -0.2% -1.7% 0.1% -1.8% -0.6% -0.4% -0.2% -8.5% -2.3% Ireland -3.1% -0.7% 0.5% -0.8% -4.7% -2.7% -0.2% -1.9% 9.1% 2.7% -5.3% 4.3% Italy -0.3% 0.1% 0.4% 1.1% 0.3% 0.6% 2.4% 0.7% 7.9% 5.5% 17.4% 3.5% Malta -0.2% 0.3% -0.5% 3.0% 0.0% 0.8% 3.3% 3.1% 1.4% 4.6% 24.0% 5.6% Cyprus 0.3% 1.0% 0.6% 1.5% 0.7% 3.6% 1.8% 0.1% 4.7% 10.7% 7.6% 2.3% Netherl 0.8% 0.0% -1.1% 0.8% 1.9% 0.6% -0.1% 1.4% 5.8% 3.8% 3.1% 1.4% Austria 0.0% -0.1% 0.3% -0.2% 0.2% 0.0% -0.2% -0.3% -4.0% -1.3% -0.2% -1.8% Portugal -0.6% 0.4% 0.1% 0.0% -0.9% 0.3% 0.3% -1.2% 5.0% 4.7% 3.7% 1.9% Slovenia -1.5% 0.0% 0.5% 0.8% -0.5% 0.6% 0.3% 0.2% 4.7% 4.9% 2.4% 6.4% Slovakia 0.3% 0.6% 0.8% -1.0% 6.6% 6.6% 5.8% 4.9% 52.1% 50.6% 40.7% 55.8% Finland 0.2% 0.1% -0.5% 0.1% 2.4% 0.2% -1.5% 1.4% 3.3% -1.7% -9.1% -1.9% Table 7: Relative price and cost price indicators: intra EU27 over last quarter over last year compared to medium term average Q2-09/Q1-09 Q2-09/Q2-08 Q2-09/avg % change ULCE PGDP PX HICP ULCE PGDP PX HICP ULCE PGDP PX HICP BLEU -0.3% -0.2% -0.1% -0.8% 3.2% 2.8% 2.7% 1.6% 4.3% 3.5% 12.8% 3.5% Bulgaria -0.7% -0.3% -3.1% -0.9% 6.7% 7.9% 0.2% 4.9% 36.3% 38.6% 32.0% 41.1% CzechRep 3.1% 3.2% 5.7% 2.4% -3.8% -4.6% -4.3% -4.0% 35.0% 26.9% 7.1% 29.4% Denmark -0.8% -0.9% -1.8% -0.7% 5.8% 5.3% 2.5% 4.4% 16.2% 9.3% 10.8% 5.2% Germany 0.1% -0.7% -1.2% -1.5% 4.8% 3.1% 1.1% 3.1% -8.0% -6.4% -7.3% -1.1% Estonia -1.2% -1.3% -2.0% -2.3% 7.0% 3.2% 1.5% 2.4% 55.1% 31.2% 26.0% 23.0% Greece -0.4% -0.5% -0.3% 0.1% 2.5% 3.1% 3.8% 2.6% 8.9% 8.2% 11.6% 7.9% Spain -1.2% -0.7% -0.8% -0.1% 0.7% 2.3% 1.6% 1.1% 8.4% 13.5% 10.0% 9.2% France -1.0% -0.6% -1.3% -1.0% 1.4% 2.9% -0.6% 1.8% 2.2% 2.6% -6.8% 1.3% Ireland -3.8% -1.4% -0.6% -1.7% -1.1% 0.6% 1.0% 0.9% 14.0% 7.9% -2.8% 10.5% Italy -0.8% -0.5% -0.6% 0.4% 3.3% 3.4% 3.6% 3.1% 9.6% 7.4% 18.1% 6.3% Cyprus -0.4% 0.2% -0.5% 0.6% 4.0% 6.7% 2.9% 2.6% 7.9% 14.6% 9.8% 7.3% Latvia -4.3% -2.6% -3.8% -1.8% -0.2% 1.3% -3.6% 5.9% 56.9% 41.9% 31.5% 29.8% Lithuani -4.4% -0.8% -3.4% -1.5% -2.6% 6.7% 2.5% 7.7% 29.3% 35.9% 32.9% 30.7% Hungary 2.6% 3.3% 6.7% 4.2% -9.8% -8.9% -0.7% -8.3% 11.6% 9.4% -4.1% 15.4% Malta -0.7% -0.3% -1.3% 2.3% 2.7% 3.3% 4.3% 5.3% 4.5% 8.1% 26.2% 9.9% Netherl 0.3% -0.6% -1.9% 0.0% 4.9% 3.3% 1.0% 3.8% 8.5% 6.7% 4.5% 5.0% Austria -0.4% -0.6% -0.7% -0.9% 3.0% 2.6% 1.1% 2.0% -3.5% -0.7% 0.3% -0.6% Portugal -0.9% -0.1% -0.6% -0.6% 1.2% 2.3% 1.1% 0.4% 7.0% 7.1% 5.0% 4.8% Poland -0.4% 0.7% 5.1% 1.7% -21.5% -21.7% -16.6% -19.1% -10.6% -2.1% 4.5% 1.2% Romania 2.9% 3.0% 4.4% 1.3% -5.7% -3.0% -1.6% -6.2% 49.9% 52.8% 10.5% 19.8% Slovenia -1.9% -0.5% -0.4% 0.3% 2.2% 3.2% 1.7% 2.5% 5.3% 5.6% 2.8% 7.5% Slovakia -0.2% -0.1% -0.6% -1.7% 10.6% 10.4% 7.9% 8.2% 51.5% 50.0% 40.7% 55.6% Finland -0.3% -0.5% -1.7% -0.7% 6.6% 3.9% 0.2% 4.7% 5.9% 1.2% -7.8% 2.0% Sweden 1.3% 1.0% 3.8% 1.3% -12.2% -10.9% -5.2% -10.4% -15.8% -15.0% -9.0% -15.1% UK 2.9% 2.9% 3.2% 3.5% -9.5% -9.2% -2.3% -7.1% -18.7% -19.1% -9.7% -21.3% 6

9 Table 8: Relative price and cost price indicators of the EU Member States vs. rest of IC36 over last quarter over last year compared to medium term average Q2-09/Q1-09 Q2-09/Q2-08 Q2-09/avg % change ULCE PGDP PX HICP ULCE PGDP PX HICP ULCE PGDP PX HICP BLEU 0.5% 0.6% 1.1% -0.1% 1.0% 0.4% 1.1% -0.7% 6.7% 5.3% 14.2% 5.3% Bulgaria -0.1% 0.2% -2.3% -0.4% 5.8% 5.9% -1.7% 3.2% 38.9% 39.0% 31.3% 40.6% CzechRep 3.6% 3.7% 6.5% 2.8% -4.9% -5.9% -5.1% -5.2% 36.3% 27.9% 7.8% 30.5% Denmark 0.0% 0.2% -0.1% 0.1% 3.4% 3.1% 1.7% 2.1% 18.5% 11.1% 11.5% 7.6% Germany 1.3% 0.5% 0.8% -0.3% 0.9% -0.9% -1.4% -0.6% -4.4% -3.6% -4.8% 1.1% Estonia -0.5% -0.4% -0.7% -1.7% 5.0% 1.2% 0.4% 0.4% 56.0% 31.3% 25.7% 23.5% Greece 0.3% 0.1% 0.7% 0.6% 1.0% 1.0% 2.1% 0.7% 11.6% 9.7% 12.4% 8.9% Spain -0.6% 0.0% 0.4% 0.5% -1.2% 0.1% 0.3% -1.0% 10.6% 15.1% 11.5% 10.7% France 0.0% 0.4% 0.3% 0.0% -1.6% -0.4% -2.6% -1.2% 5.0% 4.8% -4.9% 3.3% Ireland -2.3% 0.1% 1.7% -0.3% -5.4% -4.1% -2.0% -3.4% 18.2% 11.2% 0.3% 13.8% Italy 0.3% 0.5% 1.1% 1.3% 0.2% -0.1% 1.3% -0.1% 12.5% 9.5% 19.7% 8.3% Cyprus 0.2% 0.8% 0.5% 1.1% 2.3% 4.8% 1.8% 0.9% 9.6% 15.7% 10.7% 8.0% Latvia -3.8% -2.1% -3.0% -1.4% -1.2% 0.3% -4.0% 4.7% 57.8% 42.4% 31.6% 30.5% Lithuani -3.8% -0.1% -2.4% -0.9% -4.1% 5.0% 1.5% 6.0% 30.4% 36.6% 33.1% 31.4% Hungary 3.1% 3.8% 7.6% 4.7% -10.9% -10.2% -1.7% -9.6% 12.8% 10.1% -3.6% 16.1% Malta 1.4% 1.7% 1.5% 4.4% -3.1% -2.8% 0.2% -0.5% 8.8% 11.4% 30.0% 12.8% Netherl 1.0% 0.1% -0.8% 0.7% 2.8% 1.1% -0.3% 1.6% 10.2% 7.9% 5.4% 6.2% Austria 0.3% 0.1% 0.5% -0.1% 0.7% 0.1% -0.5% -0.3% -1.7% 0.7% 1.4% 0.8% Poland 0.1% 1.2% 5.9% 2.1% -22.2% -22.6% -17.1% -20.0% -9.8% -1.6% 4.6% 1.9% Portugal -0.3% 0.6% 0.5% 0.1% -0.7% 0.2% -0.3% -1.5% 8.7% 8.4% 6.1% 6.1% Romania 3.5% 3.5% 5.2% 1.7% -6.4% -4.3% -2.8% -7.4% 52.8% 53.8% 10.6% 20.4% Slovenia -1.4% 0.0% 0.2% 0.7% 1.1% 1.9% 0.8% 1.2% 6.0% 5.8% 2.8% 7.6% Slovakia 0.2% 0.3% 0.1% -1.3% 9.4% 9.0% 7.0% 6.9% 52.6% 50.7% 41.1% 56.4% Finland 0.8% 0.6% 0.1% 0.3% 3.6% 0.9% -1.5% 1.7% 8.8% 3.4% -6.5% 4.3% Sweden 2.2% 2.2% 6.1% 2.1% -14.2% -12.6% -5.6% -12.5% -13.2% -12.9% -8.2% -12.2% UK 4.1% 4.2% 5.3% 4.6% -12.7% -12.6% -4.9% -10.4% -14.5% -15.6% -6.8% -17.7% 7