Some Historical Examples of Yield Curves
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1 3 months 6 months 1 year 2 years 5 years 10 years 30 years Some Historical Examples of Yield Curves Nominal interest rate, % January 1981 June1999 December Time to maturity This graph shows the yield curves for U.S. Treasury bonds at three points in time. Source: Federal Reserve Board
2 Government Bond Yield Curve, January 18, 2012
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4 For S&P, a bond is considered investment grade if its credit rating is BBB- or higher. Bonds rated BB+ and below are considered to be speculative grade, sometimes also referred to as "junk" bonds
5 S&P: The general meaning of our credit rating opinions is summarized below. AAA Extremely strong capacity to meet financial commitments. Highest Rating. AA Very strong capacity to meet financial commitments. A Strong capacity to meet financial commitments, but somewhat susceptible to adverse economic conditions and changes in circumstances. BBB Adequate capacity to meet financial commitments, but more subject to adverse economic conditions. BBB- Considered lowest investment grade by market participants. BB+ Considered highest speculative grade by market participants. BB Less vulnerable in the near-term but faces major ongoing uncertainties to adverse business, financial and economic conditions. B More vulnerable to adverse business, financial and economic conditions but currently has the capacity to meet financial commitments. CCC Currently vulnerable and dependent on favorable business, financial and economic conditions to meet financial commitments. CC Currently highly vulnerable. C Currently highly vulnerable obligations and other defined circumstances. D Payment default on financial commitments. Note: Ratings from AA to CCC may be modified by the addition of a plus (+) or minus (-) sign to show relative standing within the major rating categories.
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8 The High-Yield Spread,
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10 S&P Ratings: Sovereign Debt
11 Croatia BBB- Negative Curacao A- Stable Cyprus BB+ Negative Czech Republic AA- Stable Denmark AAA Stable Dominican Republic B+ Stable Ecuador B- Positive Egypt B+ Negative El Salvador BB- Stable Estonia AA- Negative Fiji B Stable Finland AAA Negative France AA+ Negative Gabon BB- Stable Georgia BB- Stable Germany AAA Stable Ghana B Stable Greece CC Negative Grenada B- Stable Guatemala BB Negative Guernsey AA+ Stable Honduras B Positive Hong Kong AAA Stable Hungary BB+ Negative Iceland BBB- Stable India BBB- Stable Indonesia BB+ Positive Ireland BBB+ Negative
12 Harmonised long-term interest rates for convergence assessment purposes ( 1 ) (percentages per annum; period averages; secondary market yields of government bonds with maturities of close to ten years ( 2 )) Countries Dec. 10 Jan. 11 Feb. 11 Mar. 11 Apr May 11-Jun 11-Jul Aug. 11 Sep. 11 Oct. 11 Nov. 11 Dec. 11 Sources: ECB and European Commission. The latest data are available via Statistical Data Warehouse (SDW): Euro Area, SDW, Long-term Interest Rates Non-Euro Area, SDW, Long-term Interest Rates ( 1 ) As Estonia has a very limited government debt, there are currently no suitable long-term government bonds available on the financial market. See Table 2 for a MFI interest rate indicator for Estonia. ( 2 ) For Cyprus, primary market yields are reported. The same applies to Bulgaria and Romania up to December 2005, Slovenia up to October 2003 and Lithuania up to October ( 3 ) A harmonised long-term interest rate is presented starting mid-may Before, the Luxembourg Government did not have outstanding long-term debt securities with a residual maturity of close to ten years. Therefore, the yield on long-term bond(s) issued by a private credit institution with a residual maturity close to 10 years is presented for the period up to mid-may 2010 and is thus not fully harmonised for that period. Euro area Belgium Germany Ireland Greece Spain France Italy Cyprus Luxembourg ( 3 ) Malta Netherlands Austria Portugal Slovenia Slovakia Finland
13 Greece s Debt Crisis S&P bond rating (A) Greece s Sovereign Debt Ratings A A- BBB+ BBB Interest rates, % (B) Interest Rates on 10-Year Government Bonds Greece BBB- BB+ BB Germany Year Year Over , fears that the Greek government might default on its debt caused the country s bond rating (A) to fall and (B) interest rates on its bonds to rise relative to rates on bonds issued by other European governments. Source: Standart & Poor s; OECD
14 U.S. Real Interest Rates, Real 12 interest rate, % 10 8 BBB corporate bonds 30-year mortgages year Treasury bonds day Treasury bills -4 Year This graph charts the behavior over time of four interest rates in the United States. Each is a real rate-the nominal rate minus inflation over the previous year. The broad movements in the four interest rates are similar over time. Source: Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis
15 International Real Interest Rates, Real interest rate, % Canada USA France Year Real interest rates in the three countries examined here follow the same broad pattern over time. (The real interest rate for each country is the nominal rate on 3-month government bonds minus inflation over the previous year.) Source: International Monetary Fund
16 Inflation and Nominal Interest Rates Across Countries Nominal interest rate, % Turkey Russia Romania 40 Mexico USA Poland 10 Japan South Africa Inflation rate, % For the 1990s, this graph plots average inflation and the average nominal interest rate on 3-month government bonds in 41 countries. The graph illustrates the Fisher effect: higher inflation raises the nominal interest rate. Source: International Monetary Fund
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