SPECIAL REPORT: U.S. ALUMINUM IMPORT MONITOR. March Issued: May 2018

Transcription

1 SPECIAL REPORT: U.S. ALUMINUM IMPORT MONITOR March 218 Issued: May 218

2 OVERVIEW OF SECTION 232 Section 232 of the Trade Expansion Act of 1962, as amended, authorizes the President to adjust the imports of an article and its derivatives that are being imported into the United States in such quantities or under such circumstances as to threaten to impair the national security. On March 8, 218 the President authorized the imposition of a 1 percent ad valorem tariff on aluminum articles, as defined below. This report provides the industry with a means of tracking and identifying the importation of aluminum and aluminum products that fall within the scope of this order. As of this publication, the aluminum and aluminum products subject to the 1% tariff include those under the HTS Chapter 76 headings shown in the table to the right: The current roster of countries that are exempt from the 1% tariffs through May 31, 218, are included in the table below. As was outlined in the April 3, 218 Presidential Proclamation, the Administration has reached agreements in principle with Argentina, Australia, and Brazil to exempt those countries from the tariff indefinitely, although the details of these agreements have yet to be finalized and/or made public. The Administration has made clear that in all ongoing negotiations it is focused on a combination of tariffs and quotas that will restrain imports and prevent transshipment. Any change to the status quo as outlined in the April 3 proclamation, including an extension of the current deadline for country exemptions, will require Presidential action. A separate process for granting product exclusions is being administered by the Commerce Department. Argentina Australia Brazil Canada Mexico European Union: Austria Belgium Bulgaria Croatia Cyprus Czech Republic Denmark Estonia Finland France Germany Greece Hungary Harmonized Tariff Schedule Headings HTS 761 HTS 764 HTS 765 HTS 766 HTS 767 HTS 768 HTS 769 HTS HTS Ireland Italy Latvia Lithuania Luxembourg Malta Netherlands Aluminum Product Unwrought Aluminum Aluminum Bars, Rods, and Profiles Aluminum Wire Aluminum Plate, Sheet and Strip Aluminum Foil Aluminum Tubes & Pipes Aluminum Tube & Pipe Fittings Aluminum Castings Aluminum Forgings Poland Portugal Romania Slovakia Slovenia Spain Sweden United Kingdom 2

3 EXECUTIVE SUMMARY Total U.S. imports of aluminum and aluminum products covered under the 232 determination reached 15.1 billion pounds in 217, an increase of 15.2 percent over the 216 total of 13.1 billion pounds. Imports from countries currently subject to the 1 percent ad valorem tariff (nonexempt), reached 7.1 billion pounds in 217, accounting for 47. percent of the total. This is up from 35.5 percent in 214. The 7.1 billion pounds represented an increase of 22. percent over the 216 level of 5.8 billion pounds. The majority of imports (both non-exempt and exempt) in 217 were classified under US HTS 761, or unwrought aluminum ingot. Through March 218, imports covered under the 232 determination totaled 4. billion pounds, an increase of eight-tenths of one percent over year-to-date 217. The 2. billion pounds of imports from non-exempt countries through the first three months of 218 represented an increase of 6.2 percent over like-217 levels, and accounted for 51. percent of total covered imports. Much like in prior years, the majority of imports from both non-exempt and exempt countries were classified under US HTS 761. March Highlights (Links provided): Non-Exempt Partners: In 217, >24% of imports were Sheet & Plate Imports (766) 766 imports have increased >43% YTD in imports surged in Jan. 218 Imports from India have increased >111% YTD in 218 Volumes have been well above previous levels in each month Through March, imports from India were at >36% of 217 total Exempt Partners: 79% of imports fell under 761 (Unwrought) March 218 imports of 761 were up 62% M/M Despite increase, 761 imports still within 4-yr range Total Imports from Exempt partners up 48% M/M in March Imports from Canada were up >61% M/M, but off 9% YTD Mexican imports up >19% M/M and >9% YTD 3

4 232 Covered Imports: Non-Exempt vs. Exempt - Annual Total Imports from Non-Exempt Countries Total Imports from Exempt Countries % Chng % Chng Non-Exempt Exempt 5.83b lbs 7.12b lbs +22.% b lbs 8.2b lbs +9.7% % % % % % % 769.2% 768.3% YTD % % % % %.1% 768.4% % HTS Headings: Unwrought aluminum; Aluminum bars, rods, and profiles; Aluminum wire; Aluminum plate, sheet, strip; Aluminum foil; Aluminum tubes and pipes; 769 Aluminum tube and pipe fittings; and 7616 ( / ) - Aluminum castings and forgings. 4

5 232 Covered Imports: Non-Exempt vs. Exempt 218 YTD Ja n-14 Ma r-14 Ma y-14 Jul-14 Sep-14 Nov-14 Ja n-15 Ma r-15 Ma y-15 Jul-15 Sep-15 Nov-15 Ja n-16 Ma r-16 Ma y-16 Jul-16 Sep-16 Nov-16 Ja n-17 Ma r-17 Ma y-17 Jul-17 Sep-17 Nov-17 Ja n-18 Ma r-18 Total Imports from Non-Exempt Countries 217 YTD 218 YTD % Chng 1, 9 US Imports of Covered Aluminum Products (Millions of Pounds) Non-Exempt Exempt 1.92b lbs 2.4b lbs +6.2% 218YTD % b lbs 1.95b lbs 769.2% % 768.3% -4.3% % Total Imports from Exempt Countries 217 YTD 218 YTD % Chng % 218YTD % % % % U.S. Census Bureau HTS Headings: Unwrought aluminum; Aluminum bars, rods, and profiles; Aluminum wire; Aluminum plate, sheet, strip; Aluminum foil; Aluminum tubes and pipes; 769 Aluminum tube and pipe fittings; and 7616 ( / ) - Aluminum castings and forgings % % % 768.5% 769.1% % 5

6 232 Covered Imports: Non-Exempt vs. Exempt Rolling Average Product by USHTS Heading Non Exempt Mar. 218 Exempt Mar. 218 Total Mar. 218 Non Exempt 3-Mo. Avg. Exempt 3-Mo. Avg. Total 3-Mo. Avg. Non Exempt Mar/3MA Exempt Mar/3MA Total Mar/3MA Unwrought 546,459, ,989,56 1,235,448, ,234, ,451, ,685, % 38.2% 32.2% Extruded Shapes/Rod & Bar 18,679,391 32,26,77 5,886,161 18,72,843 3,184,844 48,95, % 6.7% 4.% Extruded Shapes 17,297,344 25,627,566 42,924,91 16,84,495 24,72,26 4,876,71 2.9% 6.5% 5.% Rods & Bars 1,382,47 6,579,24 7,961,251 1,916,348 6,112,639 8,28, % 7.6% -.8% Wire & Redraw 18,478,486 42,853,85 61,332,336 17,243,345 38,383,345 55,626,69 7.2% 11.6% 1.3% Aluminum Wire 5,17,437 8,375,894 13,393,331 3,463,436 7,768,288 11,231, % 7.8% 19.2% Redraw Rod 13,461,49 34,477,956 47,939,5 13,779,91 3,615,56 44,394, % 12.6% 8.% Sheet & Plate 16,64,428 6,592,338 22,656, ,25,422 6,73,92 232,756,341-7.% -.2% -5.2% Can Stock 17,635, ,553 18,119,326 18,997, ,587 19,63, % -23.7% -7.7% Circles & Discs 2,131,6 747,61 2,879,21 2,253, ,338 2,971,86-5.4% 4.1% -3.1% Plate 18,48,98 5,718,184 24,199,164 16,68,517 5,687,77 22,368, %.5% 8.2% Sheet 121,816,75 53,642, ,459,66 134,94,16 53,691, ,785, % -.1% -6.6% Foil 29,317,415 18,117,15 47,434,52 28,434,96 17,65,16 46,39, % 2.9% 3.% Pipe & Tube 1,732,273 3,393,649 5,125,922 1,715,343 3,273,127 4,988,469 1.% 3.7% 2.8% Pipe & Tube Fittings 1,146, ,44 1,515,8 1,24, ,624 1,57, %.8% -3.5% Castings & Forgings 2,695,276 1,826,653 4,521,929 3,71,314 1,727,947 4,799, % 5.7% -5.8% Total 778,573, ,348,329 1,626,921, ,65,26 65,722,236 1,329,372, % 3.4% 22.4% 6

7 NON-EXEMPT TRADING PARTNERS: TRENDS IN COVERED IMPORTS BY PRODUCT & COUNTRY Data through March 218

8 Jan-16 Feb-16 Mar-16 Apr-16 May-16 Jun-16 Jul-16 Aug-16 Sep-16 Oct-16 Nov-16 Dec-16 Jan-17 Feb-17 Mar-17 Apr-17 May-17 Jun-17 Jul-17 Aug-17 Sep-17 Oct-17 Nov-17 Dec-17 Jan-18 Feb-18 Mar-18 Non-Exempt Trading Partner Imports: By Product Millions of Pounds

9 Non-Exempt Trading Partner Imports: By Product Product by USHTS Heading Mar. 218 Feb. 218 M/M %Ch. Mar. 217 Y/Y %Ch. YTD 218 YTD 217 YTD %Ch Unwrought 546,459,183 44,57, % 491,54, % 1,38,72,788 1,318,311, % Extruded Shapes/Rod & Bar 18,679,391 18,577,827.5% 14,8, % 56,162,529 38,829, % Extruded Shapes 17,297,344 16,392, % 11,588, % 5,413,486 33,91, % Rods & Bars 1,382,47 2,185, % 2,419, % 5,749,43 5,738,33.2% Wire & Redraw 18,478,486 13,767, % 2,77,54-11.% 51,73,36 64,277, % Aluminum Wire 5,17,437 4,191, % 14,429, % 1,39,37 53,737,72-8.7% Redraw Rod 13,461,49 9,576,43 4.6% 6,34, % 41,339,729 1,54, % Sheet & Plate 16,64,428 15,99, % 139,618, % 516,76,265 36,59, % Can Stock 17,635,773 19,742, % 11,732, % 56,992,11 34,396,7 65.7% Circles & Discs 2,131,6 2,95,4 1.7% 2,581, % 6,76,566 6,2, % Plate 18,48,98 1,568, % 1,27, % 5,41,55 26,328, % Sheet 121,816,75 72,692, % 115,277, % 42,282,48 293,782, % Foil 29,317,415 25,853, % 43,62, % 85,34, ,114, % Pipe & Tube 1,732,273 1,48, % 1,728,523.2% 5,146,28 5,129,324.3% Pipe & Tube Fittings 1,146,676 1,121, % 716,629 6.% 3,614,314 2,554, % Castings & Forgings 2,695,276 3,1, % 2,674,39.8% 9,213,942 8,818, % Total 778,573, ,418, % 714,19,565 9.% 2,35,95,781 1,917,545, % 9

10 Non-Exempt Trading Partner Imports: By Product Unwrought Extruded Shapes/Rod & Bar Wire & Redraw Sheet & Plate Foil Pipe & Tube Pipe & Tube Fittings Castings & Forgings.. 1

11 Covered Imports By Non-Exempt Trading Partner Import Partner Mar. 218 Feb. 218 M/M %Ch. Mar. 217 Y/Y %Ch. YTD 218 YTD 217 YTD %Ch. Russia 227,327,165 8,319, % 271,425, % 453,673, ,32, % United Arab Emirates 212,166,996 86,761, % 13,278, % 39,374,7 456,43, % China 17,41,154 71,18, % 12,262, % 377,265, ,768, % India 39,56,586 55,213, % 26,56, % 138,253,38 65,337, % South Africa 37,83,649 82,654, % 35,24, % 153,582, ,292, % Bahrain 35,748,149 42,579,89-16.% 42,736, % 131,162,27 13,939,617.2% Qatar 18,624,85 19,885,73-6.3% 15,354, % 51,694,66 62,686, % Indonesia 16,769,812 1,628, % 13,512, % 42,977,123 36,847, % Korea, South 16,438,995 8,337, % 4,572, % 31,38,459 13,198, % Oman 11,343,515 6,551, % 7,538, % 25,22,682 4,112, % Japan 1,68,49 7,712, % 6,714, % 25,239,238 16,494,33 53.% Venezuela 9,216,64 24,953, % 12,164,3-24.2% 55,67,371 61,935, % Taiwan 5,491,8 2,99, % 1,155, % 1,632,268 4,7, % Saudi Arabia 5,74,978 24,245, % 7,773, % 44,455,95 17,49, % Turkey 4,235,523 4,758, % 2,67, % 13,5,128 7,82, % Vietnam 4,23,798 6,889, % 3,34, % 17,46,697 11,14, % Armenia 3,74,445 1,86, % 1,45, % 9,288,237 4,241, % Thailand 2,849,485 1,552, % 2,595,33 9.8% 6,726,817 4,893, % New Zealand 1,933,97 1,828, % 2,36, % 6,187,729 2,593, % Colombia 1,643,348 1,398, % 1,383, % 4,448,489 3,364, % All Others 7,831,67 31,188, % 5,776, % 47,855,39 2,421, % Total 778,573, ,418, % 714,19,565 9.% 2,35,95,781 1,917,545, % 11

12 Spotlight: Top 5 Non-Exempt Trading Partners in March 1, Total - Non Exempt 3 Russia (Millions of Pountds) 25 United Arab Emirates (Millions of Pountds) China (Millions of Pountds) India (Millions of Pountds) 1 8 South Africa (Millions of Pountds)

13 EXEMPT TRADING PARTNERS: TRENDS IN COVERED IMPORTS BY PRODUCT & COUNTRY Data through March 218

14 Jan-16 Feb-16 Mar-16 Apr-16 May-16 Jun-16 Jul-16 Aug-16 Sep-16 Oct-16 Nov-16 Dec-16 Jan-17 Feb-17 Mar-17 Apr-17 May-17 Jun-17 Jul-17 Aug-17 Sep-17 Oct-17 Nov-17 Dec-17 Jan-18 Feb-18 Mar-18 Exempt Trading Partner Imports: By Product Millions of Pounds

15 Exempt Trading Partner Imports: By Product Product by USHTS Heading Mar. 218 Feb. 218 M/M %Ch. Mar. 217 Y/Y %Ch. YTD 218 YTD 217 YTD %Ch Unwrought 688,989,56 425,51, % 563,134, % 1,495,354,242 1,625,947,827-8.% Extruded Shapes/Rod & Bar 32,26,77 28,688, % 26,756, % 9,554,533 75,825, % Extruded Shapes 25,627,566 22,63, % 21,427, % 72,216,617 59,716, % Rods & Bars 6,579,24 6,85, % 5,328, % 18,337,916 16,18, % Wire & Redraw 42,853,85 36,735, % 39,87, % 115,15,34 125,14,54-7.9% Aluminum Wire 8,375,894 7,726, % 11,826, % 23,34,865 33,292,312-3.% Redraw Rod 34,477,956 29,9, % 28,43, % 91,845,169 91,722,192.1% Sheet & Plate 6,592,338 59,741,18 1.4% 59,139, % 182,192, ,547, % Can Stock 483, , % 633, % 1,9,76 1,351,23 4.7% Circles & Discs 747,61 673, % 949, % 2,155,13 2,511, % Plate 5,718,184 5,252, % 6,23, % 17,63,31 17,186, % Sheet 53,642,991 53,47, % 51,532, % 161,73, ,499,3 8.5% Foil 18,117,15 17,613, % 9,2, % 52,815,47 28,252, % Pipe & Tube 3,393,649 3,125, % 3,23, % 9,819,38 8,8, % Pipe & Tube Fittings 368,44 432, % 479, % 1,96,871 1,499, % Castings & Forgings 1,826,653 1,794, % 2,37,26-1.3% 5,183,842 5,737,64-9.7% Total 848,348, ,632, % 73,641, % 1,952,166,78 2,4,626, % 15

16 Exempt Trading Partner Imports: By Product 1, Unwrought Extruded Shapes/Rod & Bar Wire & Redraw Sheet & Plate Foil Pipe & Tube Pipe & Tube Fittings Castings & Forgings

17 Covered Imports: By Exempt Trading Partner Import Partner Mar. 218 Feb. 218 M/M %Ch. Mar. 217 Y/Y %Ch. YTD 218 YTD 217 YTD %Ch. Canada 79,453,66 439,15, % 616,361, % 1,577,642,817 1,732,349,24-8.9% Argentina 58,935,676 58,43,98.9% 22,551, % 119,178, ,989, % Mexico 16,363,632 13,676, % 13,796, % 42,326,49 38,693, % Germany 11,342,767 1,65, % 13,11, % 34,949,12 36,654,55-4.7% France 9,235,488 1,1, % 6,64, % 35,593,291 19,579, % Australia 7,621,7 7,679, % 4,568, % 41,196,132 25,42, % Brazil 6,89,445 11,625,92-4.7% 4,13, % 25,84,894 11,17, % Austria 5,858,795 6,46, % 6,938, % 17,867,61 18,255, % Greece 4,9,13 3,23, % 4,699, % 12,684,579 11,971,611 6.% Spain 3,82,286 1,166, % 1,382, % 6,628,349 3,761, % Italy 3,218,512 2,213, % 2,37, % 8,96,68 6,462, % Belgium 2,328,716 2,427, % 1,417, % 7,5,632 5,46, % Sweden 2,234,542 1,98, % 1,321, % 6,359,532 5,3, % Netherlands 1,795,995 1,291, % 1,63, % 4,117,377 4,354,46-5.4% Luxembourg 1,427,684 1,192, % % 3,277, % United Kingdom 753,125 92, % 1,477, % 2,513,753 4,835, % Czech Republic 596,375 59,227 1.% 518,83 15.% 1,745,376 1,45, % Romania 554,473 39, % 699, % 1,316,76 1,542, % Slovenia 527, , % 421, % 1,614,171 1,392,4 16.% Denmark 226,6 267, % 92, % 883,72 316, % All Others 263, , % 212, % 1,33,37 845, % Total 848,348, ,632, % 73,641, % 1,952,166,78 2,4,626, % 17

18 Spotlight: Top 5 Exempt Trading Partners in March 1, 8 Total - Exempt 1, 8 Canada (Millions of Pountds) 12 1 Argentina (Millions of Pountds) Mexico (Millions of Pountds) 25 Germany (Millions of Pountds) 2 France (Millions of Pountds)

19 POTENTIAL IMPACT OF QUOTAS: COVERED IMPORTS BY TRADING PARTNER As mentioned previously, while the Administration has reached agreements in principle with Argentina, Australia, and Brazil, we are not aware of the details of these agreements. Nevertheless, we do know that in all ongoing negotiations the Administration will utilize a combination of tariffs and quotas. On March 28, the United States and South Korea reached an agreement to update the U.S.-Korea Free Trade Agreement (KORUS). In addition to changes to the FTA, South Korea agreed to limit steel imports into the United States to a product-specific quota equal to 7 percent of that country s average annual import volume from 215 through 217. While South Korea did not make a similar agreement on aluminum, it did give us some insight into one likely outcome of ongoing negotiations. In the data that follow, we assume a hypothetical similar 7 percent quota on aluminum imports over the prior three years, and apply it to aluminum trading partners on a country-by-country basis to illustrate what the effect of such a quota would be if adopted. We have also included the effect of a quota equal to 1 percent of 217 import volumes. This information is provided in an effort to inform and prepare members should some sort of quota agreements be made with either currently exempt or currently non-exempt trading partners. We will update this table as new agreements are established and made public.

20 Top 1 Trading Partners: Non-Exempt vs. Exempt Trading Partners* YTD % of 217 7% of 3-Yr. Avg. 218 % of 3YrAvg. Non-Exempt 2,35,95,781 7,115,738,372 5,831,537,434 4,146,414, % 3,988,527, % Russia 453,673,165 1,639,637,712 1,665,777,48 682,469, % 93,56, % United Arab Emirates 39,374,7 1,47,621,456 1,225,441,43 645,474, % 764,992, % China 377,265,895 1,413,286,33 1,194,594,5 1,28,39, % 89,444, % South Africa 153,582, ,263, ,366, ,792, % 148,965, % India 138,253,38 378,126, ,278, ,385, % 148,351, % Bahrain 131,162,27 544,87, ,965, ,765, % 283,69, % Venezuela 55,67,371 22,66, ,277, ,684, % 117,745, % Qatar 51,694,66 26,23,64 255,84,57 19,311, % 164,639, % Saudi Arabia 44,455,95 15,16, ,536, ,841, % 11,846, % Indonesia 42,977, ,341,881 99,62, ,249, % 14,582, % All Others 197,444, ,43, ,594, ,129, % 332,763, % Exempt 1,952,166,78 8,24,73,112 7,314,17,452 6,91,936, % 5,189,375, % Canada 1,577,642,817 6,423,444,591 6,88,847,379 5,872,258, % 4,289,728, % Argentina 119,178, ,172, ,499,348 21,19, % 279,228, % Mexico 42,326,49 154,418, ,599, ,983, % 98,466, % Australia 41,196, ,83,957 49,79,416 73,84, % 8,872,74 5.9% France 35,593,291 95,492,623 65,48,841 53,145, % 49,944, % Germany 34,949,12 129,786,54 189,379,756 27,124, % 122,81, % Brazil 25,84, ,118,14 18,24,415 41,375, % 62,654, % Austria 17,867,61 79,813,838 8,68,884 72,994, % 54,464, % Greece 12,684,579 45,556,346 47,41,474 5,435, % 33,458, % Italy 8,96,68 38,491,117 26,778,274 5,78, % 26,914, % All Others 36,791, ,691,567 17,466,36 9,82,7 24.7% 76,589,44 48.% Total 3,988,117,489 15,139,811,484 13,145,77,886 11,48,351, % 9,177,93, % *Volume in Pounds 2

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