SEE macroeconomic outlook Recovery gains traction, fiscal discipline improving. Alen Kovac, Chief Economist EBC May 2016 Ljubljana
|
|
- Gervais Atkinson
- 5 years ago
- Views:
Transcription
1 SEE macroeconomic outlook Recovery gains traction, fiscal discipline improving Alen Kovac, Chief Economist EBC May 216 Ljubljana
2 Real economy highlights
3 Recent GDP track record reveals more favorable footprint GDP, y/y growth rates in the selected economies 6 5 3Q14 4Q14 1Q15 2Q15 3Q15 4Q Croatia Slovenia Serbia Montenegro Macedonia Bosnia and Herzegovina Source: Statistical offices
4 4Q:9 1Q:1 2Q:1 3Q:1 4Q:1 1Q:11 2Q:11 3Q:11 4Q:11 1Q:12 2Q:12 3Q:12 4Q:12 1Q:13 2Q:13 3Q:13 4Q:13 1Q:14 2Q:14 3Q:14 4Q:14 1Q:15 2Q:15 3Q:15 4Q:15 GDP momentum kept robust momentum GDP performance EU & peer comparison (4Q trailing annual growth rate) 6% 4% 2% % -2% -4% -6% -8% -1% EU28 CEE6 SI Source: Eurostat
5 4Q:9 1Q:1 2Q:1 3Q:1 4Q:1 1Q:11 2Q:11 3Q:11 4Q:11 1Q:12 2Q:12 3Q:12 4Q:12 1Q:13 2Q:13 3Q:13 4Q:13 1Q:14 2Q:14 3Q:14 4Q:14 1Q:15 2Q:15 3Q:15 4Q:15 4Q:9 1Q:1 2Q:1 3Q:1 4Q:1 1Q:11 2Q:11 3Q:11 4Q:11 1Q:12 2Q:12 3Q:12 4Q:12 1Q:13 2Q:13 3Q:13 4Q:13 1Q:14 2Q:14 3Q:14 4Q:14 1Q:15 2Q:15 3Q:15 4Q:15 4Q:9 1Q:1 2Q:1 3Q:1 4Q:1 1Q:11 2Q:11 3Q:11 4Q:11 1Q:12 2Q:12 3Q:12 4Q:12 1Q:13 2Q:13 3Q:13 4Q:13 1Q:14 2Q:14 3Q:14 4Q:14 1Q:15 2Q:15 3Q:15 4Q:15 Private consumption trending higher, investments seen moving into red GDP components EU & peer comparison (4Q trailing annual growth rate) 4% 3% 2% 1% Private consumption 1% 5% % Fixed capital formation % -5% -1% -2% -3% -4% -5% EU28 CEE6 SI -1% -15% -2% -25% EU28 CEE6 SI 2% 15% Exports 1% 5% % -5% -1% EU28-15% -2% CEE6 SI Source: Eurostat
6 Jan-1 May-1 Sep-1 Jan-11 May-11 Sep-11 Jan-12 May-12 Sep-12 Jan-13 May-13 Sep-13 Jan-14 May-14 Sep-14 Jan-15 May-15 Sep-15 Jan-16 Jan-1 May-1 Sep-1 Jan-11 May-11 Sep-11 Jan-12 May-12 Sep-12 Jan-13 May-13 Sep-13 Jan-14 May-14 Sep-14 Jan-15 May-15 Sep-15 Jan-16 Jan-1 May-1 Sep-1 Jan-11 May-11 Sep-11 Jan-12 May-12 Sep-12 Jan-13 May-13 Sep-13 Jan-14 May-14 Sep-14 Jan-15 May-15 Sep-15 Jan-16 Jan-1 May-1 Sep-1 Jan-11 May-11 Sep-11 Jan-12 May-12 Sep-12 Jan-13 May-13 Sep-13 Jan-14 May-14 Sep-14 Jan-15 May-15 Sep-15 Jan-16 Sentiment remains largely robust, consumers looking more cautious Sentiment indicators Construction confidence indicator EU SI Industrial confidence indicator Source: Eurostat EU SI 3 Retail confidence indicator EU SI Consumer confidence indicator EU SI
7 1Q:9 2Q:9 3Q:9 4Q:9 1Q:1 2Q:1 3Q:1 4Q:1 1Q:11 2Q:11 3Q:11 4Q:11 1Q:12 2Q:12 3Q:12 4Q:12 1Q:13 2Q:13 3Q:13 4Q:13 1Q:14 2Q:14 3Q:14 4Q:14 1Q:15 2Q:15 3Q:15 4Q:15 1Q:16 Labor market trends seen remaining supportive as unemployment remains on downward trajectory Unemployment rate (4Q average) EU28 CEE6 SI Source: Eurostat
8 1Q:9 2Q:9 3Q:9 4Q:9 1Q:1 2Q:1 3Q:1 4Q:1 1Q:11 2Q:11 3Q:11 4Q:11 1Q:12 2Q:12 3Q:12 4Q:12 1Q:13 2Q:13 3Q:13 4Q:13 1Q:14 2Q:14 3Q:14 4Q:14 1Q:15 2Q:15 3Q:15 4Q:15 Employment is also trending higher Employment rate (4Q average) EU28 CEE6 SI Source: Eurostat
9 Employment 215/28 CAGR Employment vs GDP employment recovery lags, evidence of jobless recovery in several countries Average growth rate of GDP vs average growth rate of employment 215/218 3% 2% 1% % -1% SI -2% -3% HR -4% -5% -5% -4% -3% -2% -1% % 1% 2% 3% 4% GDP 215/28 CAGR Source: Eurostat
10 Employment dynamics improving, though still at slower pace compared to GDP GDP vs employment (28=1) EU 28 employment EU 28 GDP Slovenia employment Slovenia GDP Source: Eurostat
11 Ireland Malta Luxembourg Romania Poland Macedonia Montenegro Sweden Slovakia Czech Republic Latvia Spain Hungary Lithuania Bulgaria USA Slovenia United Kingdom EU Netherlands Croatia Estonia Cyprus Serbia Euro area Germany Portugal Denmark Belgium France Austria Italy Greece Finland Japan Slovenia keeping pace with EU average, Croatia and Serbia outlook firmed, Macedonia and Montenegro keeping strong pace Expected cumulative GDP growth Source: EC spring 216 forecast
12 GDP shifts into lower gear amid investments slowdown, exports and private consumption remain supportive Contributions to real GDP growth f 216f Private consumption Investments Inventories Public consumption Net exports GDP, growth rate Source: SURS, EBC
13 Low inflation environment CPI expected to gradually pick up in the following years Average 215 CPI figure and 216 forecasts CRO HUN SLO CZE SLK POL ROM f (Dec) 216f (Jun) Source: Erste Research
14 External debt (% of GDP) Debt-C/A deficit spiral robust CA performance supporting further deleveraging Current account balance and external debt (% of GDP) Slovenia CEE C/A balance (% of GDP) Source: Eurostat
15 Fiscal metrics showing improvement
16 Public debt (% of GDP) Fiscal / GDP combo looks increasing comfortable Real GDP growth and public debt (% of GDP) SLOVENIA CEE % -5% -4% -3% -2% -1% % 1% 2% 3% 4% 5% 6% Real GDP growth Source: Eurostat
17 Public debt (% of GDP) Deficit moving towards comparable CEE levels and below 3% of GDP threshold Deficit and public debt (% of GDP) SLOVENIA CEE Deficit (% of GDP) Source: Eurostat
18 GRE ESP UK POR FRA CRO SLK SLO FIN POL BEL ITA BUG IRE DEN HUN NET MAL LAT AUS CYP ROM CZE LIT SWE GER LUX Fiscal outlook consolidation remains on track in Slovenia, Croatia positively surprised Budget gaps (% of GDP) Maastricht 3% Source: EC
19 ROM FIN BUG GRE POL LUX FRA CRO ESP LIT UK SLK CZE BEL LAT ITA NET DEN HUN AUS SWE CYP POR GER SLO MAL IRE correspondingly pressure on public debt eases Expected public debt accumulation in period 6 Source: EC
20 Financing profile looking strong Public sector financing needs in 216, cash buffer and % completion of target issuance 1% 9% 8% 7% 6% 5% 4% 3% 2% 1% % 81% if we compare 1Q16 financing + cash buffer to t-bill and t-bond redemptions only HR CZ HU PL RO RS SK SI 1Q16 issuance vs total 216 financing need Cash buffer vs total 216 financing need Gross fin. needs in % of GDP, 216 total (rhs) 25% 2% 15% 1% 5% % Source: Bloomberg
21 Bulgaria Denmark Sweden Czech Republic Finland Latvia Romania Lithuania Poland Slovakia Netherlands Hungary Malta Austria France Slovenia Germany Croatia Belgium United Kingdom Spain Italy Cyprus Portugal Ireland Greece Low yield environment supporting debt servicing cost, though risk profile remains differentiating factor 16% 14% 12% 1% critical rate average rate current 1Y rate 8% 6% 4% 2% % * Critical rate represents interest rate at which country is spending 1% of total budget expenditures for debt servicing Source: Eurostat; Bloomberg
22 Jan-11 Apr-11 Jul-11 Oct-11 Jan-12 Apr-12 Jul-12 Oct-12 Jan-13 Apr-13 Jul-13 Oct-13 Jan-14 Apr-14 Jul-14 Oct-14 Jan-15 Apr-15 Jul-15 Oct-15 Jan-16 Apr-16 Less aggressive FED supportive of CDS compression 5yr CDS spread Source: Bloomberg A World BBB World A EU BBB EU
23 December S&P seems to be on spot as Slovenia is concerned CDS vs. S&P rating Source: Bloomberg
24 May 216 YTD flattening driven by compression on Weaker end of the rating scale CDS vs. S&P rating Source: Bloomberg
25 May-13 Jun-13 Jul-13 Aug-13 Sep-13 Oct-13 Nov-13 Dec-13 Jan-14 Feb-14 Mar-14 Apr-14 May-14 Jun-14 Jul-14 Aug-14 Sep-14 Oct-14 Nov-14 Dec-14 Jan-15 Feb-15 Mar-15 Apr-15 May-15 Jun-15 Jul-15 Aug-15 Sep-15 Oct-15 Nov-15 Dec-15 Jan-16 Feb-16 Mar-16 Apr-16 May-16 Spread indicating steady pattern recently and similar Pattern remains our baseline scenario for 216 Yield comparison and spread Spread (RHS) DE 224 SI Source: Bloomberg
26 Nov-12 Dec-12 Jan-13 Feb-13 Mar-13 Apr-13 May-13 Jun-13 Jul-13 Aug-13 Sep-13 Oct-13 Nov-13 Dec-13 Jan-14 Feb-14 Mar-14 Apr-14 May-14 Jun-14 Jul-14 Aug-14 Sep-14 Oct-14 Nov-14 Dec-14 Jan-15 Feb-15 Mar-15 Apr-15 May-15 Jun-15 Jul-15 Aug-15 Sep-15 Oct-15 Nov-15 Dec-15 Jan-16 Feb-16 Mar-16 Apr-16 Slovenia trading tight with Italy and Portugal 1Y EUR yields Slovenia vs. selected Eurobonds performance (bp) 3 PT IT ES Source: Bloomberg
27 Nov-12 Dec-12 Jan-13 Feb-13 Mar-13 Apr-13 May-13 Jun-13 Jul-13 Aug-13 Sep-13 Oct-13 Nov-13 Dec-13 Jan-14 Feb-14 Mar-14 Apr-14 May-14 Jun-14 Jul-14 Aug-14 Sep-14 Oct-14 Nov-14 Dec-14 Jan-15 Feb-15 Mar-15 Apr-15 May-15 Jun-15 Jul-15 Aug-15 Sep-15 Oct-15 Nov-15 Dec-15 Jan-16 Feb-16 Mar-16 Apr-16 similar pattern when comparing to CEE peers 1Y EUR yields Slovenia vs. selected Eurobonds performance (bp) PL SK CZ Source: Bloomberg
28 Thank you for your attention!!
Macroeconomic overview SEE and Macedonia
Macroeconomic overview SEE and Macedonia Zoltan Arokszallasi Chief Analyst, Macro & FX/FI Research Erste Group Bank Erste Investors Breakfast, 29 September, Skopje 02. Oktober SEE shows mixed performance
More informationJanuary 2010 Euro area unemployment rate at 9.9% EU27 at 9.5%
STAT//29 1 March 20 January 20 Euro area unemployment rate at 9.9% EU27 at 9.5% The euro area 1 (EA16) seasonally-adjusted 2 unemployment rate 3 was 9.9% in January 20, the same as in December 2009 4.
More informationOctober 2010 Euro area unemployment rate at 10.1% EU27 at 9.6%
STAT//180 30 November 20 October 20 Euro area unemployment rate at.1% EU27 at 9.6% The euro area 1 (EA16) seasonally-adjusted 2 unemployment rate 3 was.1% in October 20, compared with.0% in September 4.
More informationThe Cyprus Economy: from Recovery to Sustainable Growth. Vincenzo Guzzo Resident Representative in Cyprus
The Economy: from Recovery to Sustainable Growth Vincenzo Guzzo Resident Representative in Growth momentum remains strong 18 : Real GDP ( billion) 1 Deviation from Pre-Crisis Level and Trend (Percent)
More informationChart pack to council for cooperation on macroprudential policy
Chart pack to council for cooperation on macroprudential policy Contents List of charts... 3 Macro and macro-financial setting... 5 Swedish macroeconomic setting... 5 Foreign macroeconomic setting... Macro-financial
More informationFiscal rules in Lithuania
Fiscal rules in Lithuania Algimantas Rimkūnas Vice Minister, Ministry of Finance of Lithuania 3 June, 2016 Evolution of National and EU Fiscal Regulations Stability and Growth Pact (SGP) Maastricht Treaty
More informationHarmonised Index of Consumer Prices (HICP) August 2015
Aug-14 Sep-14 Oct-14 Nov-14 Dec-14 Jan-15 Feb-15 Mar-15 Apr-15 May-15 Jun-15 MONTENEGRO STATISTICAL OFFICE R E L E A S E Broj: 201 Podgorica, 18 September 2015 When using the data please name the source
More informationMay 2009 Euro area external trade surplus 1.9 bn euro 6.8 bn euro deficit for EU27
STAT/09/106 17 July 2009 May 2009 Euro area external trade surplus 1.9 6.8 deficit for EU27 The first estimate for the euro area 1 (EA16) trade balance with the rest of the world in May 2009 gave a 1.9
More informationJanuary 2009 Euro area external trade deficit 10.5 bn euro 26.3 bn euro deficit for EU27
STAT/09/40 23 March 2009 January 2009 Euro area external trade deficit 10.5 26.3 deficit for EU27 The first estimate for the euro area 1 (EA16) trade balance with the rest of the world in January 2009
More informationAugust 2008 Euro area external trade deficit 9.3 bn euro 27.2 bn euro deficit for EU27
STAT/08/143 17 October 2008 August 2008 Euro area external trade deficit 9.3 27.2 deficit for EU27 The first estimate for the euro area 1 (EA15) trade balance with the rest of the world in August 2008
More informationJanuary 2014 Euro area international trade in goods surplus 0.9 bn euro 13.0 bn euro deficit for EU28
STAT/14/41 18 March 2014 January 2014 Euro area international trade in goods surplus 0.9 13.0 deficit for EU28 The first estimate for the euro area 1 (EA18) trade in goods balance with the rest of the
More informationRecovery at risk? - CEE external vulnerability and Poland Article IV preliminary conclusions
Central, Eastern and Southeastern Europe (CESEE) Recovery at risk? - CEE external vulnerability and Poland Article IV preliminary conclusions CASE, Warsaw - May 27, 214 James Roaf Senior Resident Representative
More informationJune 2014 Euro area international trade in goods surplus 16.8 bn 2.9 bn surplus for EU28
127/2014-18 August 2014 June 2014 Euro area international trade in goods surplus 16.8 bn 2.9 bn surplus for EU28 The first estimate for the euro area 1 (EA18) trade in goods balance with the rest of the
More informationFirst estimate for 2011 Euro area external trade deficit 7.7 bn euro bn euro deficit for EU27
27/2012-15 February 2012 First estimate for 2011 Euro area external trade deficit 7.7 152.8 deficit for EU27 The first estimate for the euro area 1 (EA17) trade in goods balance with the rest of the world
More informationMay 2012 Euro area international trade in goods surplus of 6.9 bn euro 3.8 bn euro deficit for EU27
108/2012-16 July 2012 May 2012 Euro area international trade in goods surplus of 6.9 3.8 deficit for EU27 The first estimate for the euro area 1 (EA17) trade in goods balance with the rest of the world
More informationEU-28 RECOVERED PAPER STATISTICS. Mr. Giampiero MAGNAGHI On behalf of EuRIC
EU-28 RECOVERED PAPER STATISTICS Mr. Giampiero MAGNAGHI On behalf of EuRIC CONTENTS EU-28 Paper and Board: Consumption and Production EU-28 Recovered Paper: Effective Consumption and Collection EU-28 -
More informationAugust 2012 Euro area international trade in goods surplus of 6.6 bn euro 12.6 bn euro deficit for EU27
146/2012-16 October 2012 August 2012 Euro area international trade in goods surplus of 6.6 12.6 deficit for EU27 The first estimate for the euro area 1 (EA17) trade in goods balance with the rest of the
More informationPensions at a Glance: Europe and Central Asia
Pensions at a Glance: Europe and Central Asia Edward Whitehouse Head of Pension-Policy Analysis Social Policy division OECD European Commission/ World Bank conference Reforming Pension Systems in Europe
More informationEU BUDGET AND NATIONAL BUDGETS
DIRECTORATE GENERAL FOR INTERNAL POLICIES POLICY DEPARTMENT ON BUDGETARY AFFAIRS EU BUDGET AND NATIONAL BUDGETS 1999-2009 October 2010 INDEX Foreward 3 Table 1. EU and National budgets 1999-2009; EU-27
More informationLive Long and Prosper? Demographic Change and Europe s Pensions Crisis. Dr. Jochen Pimpertz Brussels, 10 November 2015
Live Long and Prosper? Demographic Change and Europe s Pensions Crisis Dr. Jochen Pimpertz Brussels, 10 November 2015 Old-age-dependency ratio, EU28 45,9 49,4 50,2 39,0 27,5 31,8 2013 2020 2030 2040 2050
More informationJune 2012 Euro area international trade in goods surplus of 14.9 bn euro 0.4 bn euro surplus for EU27
121/2012-17 August 2012 June 2012 Euro area international trade in goods surplus of 14.9 0.4 surplus for EU27 The first estimate for the euro area 1 (EA17) trade in goods balance with the rest of the world
More informationDATA SET ON INVESTMENT FUNDS (IVF) Naming Conventions
DIRECTORATE GENERAL STATISTICS LAST UPDATE: 10 APRIL 2013 DIVISION MONETARY & FINANCIAL STATISTICS ECB-UNRESTRICTED DATA SET ON INVESTMENT FUNDS (IVF) Naming Conventions The series keys related to Investment
More informationEMPLOYMENT RATE IN EU-COUNTRIES 2000 Employed/Working age population (15-64 years)
EMPLOYMENT RATE IN EU-COUNTRIES 2 Employed/Working age population (15-64 years EU-15 Denmark Netherlands Great Britain Sweden Portugal Finland Austria Germany Ireland Luxembourg France Belgium Greece Spain
More informationDomestic Debt Market Development in Poland Marek Szczerbak Republic of Poland Ministry of Finance Public Debt Department
Domestic Debt Market Development in Poland Marek Szczerbak Republic of Poland Ministry of Finance Public Debt Department DMF Stakeholders Forum 2011 Berne, 8-9 June 2011 1 I. Historical perspective 2 Developing
More informationPRACTICAL ASPECTS AND DILEMMAS OF MEDIUM TERM FISCAL PLANNING - CASE OF SLOVENIA. Copyright rests with the author. All rights reserved.
PRACTICAL ASPECTS AND DILEMMAS OF MEDIUM TERM FISCAL PLANNING - CASE OF SLOVENIA Copyright rests with the author. All rights reserved. Saša Jazbec, Ministry of Finance Republic of Slovenia MARCH 2018 Agenda
More informationCommunication on the future of the CAP
Communication on the future of the CAP The CAP towards 2020: meeting the food, natural resources and territorial challenges of the future Tassos Haniotis, Director Agricultural Policy Analysis and Perspectives
More informationSecond estimate for the third quarter of 2008 EU27 current account deficit 39.5 bn euro 19.3 bn euro surplus on trade in services
STAT/09/12 22 January 2009 Second estimate for the third quarter of 20 EU27 current account deficit 39.5 bn euro 19.3 bn euro surplus on trade in According to the latest revisions1, the EU272 external
More informationGrowth, competitiveness and jobs: priorities for the European Semester 2013 Presentation of J.M. Barroso,
Growth, competitiveness and jobs: priorities for the European Semester 213 Presentation of J.M. Barroso, President of the European Commission, to the European Council of 14-1 March 213 Economic recovery
More informationSome Historical Examples of Yield Curves
3 months 6 months 1 year 2 years 5 years 10 years 30 years Some Historical Examples of Yield Curves Nominal interest rate, % 16 14 12 10 8 6 4 2 January 1981 June1999 December2009 0 Time to maturity This
More informationNOTE ON EU27 CHILD POVERTY RATES
NOTE ON EU7 CHILD POVERTY RATES Research note prepared for Child Poverty Action Group Authors: H. Xavier Jara and Chrysa Leventi Institute for Social and Economic Research (ISER) University of Essex The
More informationEurope Outlook. Third Quarter 2015
Europe Outlook Third Quarter 2015 Main messages 1 2 3 4 5 Moderation of global growth and slowdown in emerging economies, with downside risks The recovery continues in the eurozone, but still marked by
More informationFiscal sustainability challenges in Romania
Preliminary Draft For discussion only Fiscal sustainability challenges in Romania Bucharest, May 10, 2011 Ionut Dumitru Anca Paliu Agenda 1. Main fiscal sustainability challenges 2. Tax collection issues
More informationQuarterly Gross Domestic Product of Montenegro 3 rd quarter 2017
MONTENEGRO STATISTICAL OFFICE R E L E A S E No: 224 Podgorica, 22 December 2017 When using the data, please name the source Quarterly Gross Domestic Product of Montenegro 3 rd quarter 2017 The release
More informationTurkey: Recent Developments and Future Prospects. ISBANK Economic Research Division October 2018
Turkey: Recent Developments and Future Prospects ISBANK Economic Research Division October 2018 Macroeconomic Outlook Strong Economic Growth Cycle GDP of 851 bn USD (2017), 10.6k USD (2017) per capita
More informationSpain France. England Netherlands. Wales Ukraine. Republic of Ireland Czech Republic. Romania Albania. Serbia Israel. FYR Macedonia Latvia
Germany Belgium Portugal Spain France Switzerland Italy England Netherlands Iceland Poland Croatia Slovakia Russia Austria Wales Ukraine Sweden Bosnia-Herzegovina Republic of Ireland Czech Republic Turkey
More informationCentral and Eastern Europe: Global spillovers and external vulnerabilities
Central and Eastern Europe: Central and Eastern Europe: Global spillovers and external vulnerabilities ICEG Annual Conference Brussels, May 28 Christoph Rosenberg International Monetary Fund Overview The
More informationEMPLOYMENT RATE Employed/Working age population (15-64 years)
1 EMPLOYMENT RATE 1980-2003 Employed/Working age population (15-64 years 80 % Finland (Com 75 70 65 60 EU-15 Finland (Stat. Fin. 55 50 80 82 84 86 88 90 92 94 96 98 00 02 9.9.2002/SAK /TL Source: European
More informationWorld Economic Outlook Central Europe and Baltic Countries
World Economic Outlook Central Europe and Baltic Countries Presentation by Susan Schadler and Christoph Rosenberg September 5 World growth returns to trend. (World real GDP growth, annual percent change)
More informationTraffic Safety Basic Facts Main Figures. Traffic Safety Basic Facts Traffic Safety. Motorways Basic Facts 2016.
Traffic Safety Basic Facts 2013 - Main Figures Traffic Safety Basic Facts 2015 Traffic Safety Motorways Basic Facts 2016 Motorways General Almost 26.000 people were killed in road accidents on motorways
More informationEuropean Advertising Business Climate Index Q4 2016/Q #AdIndex2017
European Advertising Business Climate Index Q4 216/Q1 217 ABOUT Quarterly survey of European advertising and market research companies Provides information about: managers assessment of their business
More informationTraffic Safety Basic Facts Main Figures. Traffic Safety Basic Facts Traffic Safety. Motorways Basic Facts 2017.
Traffic Safety Basic Facts 2013 - Main Figures Traffic Safety Basic Facts 2015 Traffic Safety Motorways Basic Facts 2017 Motorways General More than 24.000 people were killed in road accidents on motorways
More informationTaxation trends in the European Union EU27 tax ratio at 39.8% of GDP in 2007 Steady decline in top personal and corporate income tax rates since 2000
DG TAXUD STAT/09/92 22 June 2009 Taxation trends in the European Union EU27 tax ratio at 39.8% of GDP in 2007 Steady decline in top personal and corporate income tax rates since 2000 The overall tax-to-gdp
More informationCOMMISSION STAFF WORKING DOCUMENT Accompanying the document
EUROPEAN COMMISSION Brussels, 9.10.2017 SWD(2017) 330 final PART 13/13 COMMISSION STAFF WORKING DOCUMENT Accompanying the document REPORT FROM THE COMMISSION TO THE EUROPEAN PARLIAMENT, THE COUNCIL, THE
More informationREPORT FROM THE COMMISSION TO THE EUROPEAN PARLIAMENT, THE COUNCIL, THE EUROPEAN ECONOMIC AND SOCIAL COMMITTEE AND THE COMMITTEE OF THE REGIONS
EUROPEAN COMMISSION Brussels,.4.29 COM(28) 86 final/ 2 ANNEXES to 3 ANNEX to the REPORT FROM THE COMMISSION TO THE EUROPEAN PARLIAMENT, THE COUNCIL, THE EUROPEAN ECONOMIC AND SOCIAL COMMITTEE AND THE COMMITTEE
More informationQuarterly Gross Domestic Product of Montenegro 2st quarter 2016
Government of Montenegro Statistical Office of Montenegro Quarterly Gross Domestic Product of Montenegro 2st quarter 2016 The release presents the preliminary data for quarterly gross domestic product
More informationTraffic Safety Basic Facts Main Figures. Traffic Safety Basic Facts Traffic Safety. Motorways Basic Facts 2015.
Traffic Safety Basic Facts 2013 - Main Figures Traffic Safety Basic Facts 2015 Traffic Safety Motorways Basic Facts 2015 Motorways General Almost 30.000 people were killed in road accidents on motorways
More informationComparing pay trends in the public services and private sector. Labour Research Department 7 June 2018 Brussels
Comparing pay trends in the public services and private sector Labour Research Department 7 June 2018 Brussels Issued to be covered The trends examined The varying patterns over 14 years and the impact
More informationThe new fiscal code economic context and impact on the budget. Ionut Dumitru President of the Fiscal Council June 2015
The new fiscal code economic context and impact on the budget Ionut Dumitru President of the Fiscal Council June 2015 A booming economy before the crisis 1.8 2.1 Annual average GDP growth (2001-2008) 3.3
More informationGender pension gap economic perspective
Gender pension gap economic perspective Agnieszka Chłoń-Domińczak Institute of Statistics and Demography SGH Part of this research was supported by European Commission 7th Framework Programme project "Employment
More informationQuarterly Gross Domestic Product of Montenegro 4 th quarter 2018 (p)
MONTENEGRO STATISTICAL OFFICE R E L E A S E No: 46 Podgorica, 22 March 2019 When using the data, please name the source Quarterly Gross Domestic Product of Montenegro 4 th quarter 2018 (p) The release
More informationNPL resolution in the case of Romania
National Bank of Romania NPL resolution in the case of Romania June 2015 Financial Stability Department National Bank of Romania 1 Summary Main features of the Romanian banking sector Definition of NPL:
More informationDecember 2010 Euro area annual inflation up to 2.2% EU up to 2.6%
STAT/11/9 14 January 2011 December 2010 Euro area annual inflation up to 2.2% EU up to 2.6% Euro area 1 annual inflation was 2.2% in December 2010 2, up from 1.9% in November. A year earlier the rate was
More informationBorderline cases for salary, social contribution and tax
Version Abstract 1 (5) 2015-04-21 Veronica Andersson Salary and labour cost statistics Borderline cases for salary, social contribution and tax (Workshop on Labour Cost Survey, Rome, Italy 5-6 May 2015)
More informationInvestment in Germany and the EU
Investment in Germany and the EU Pedro de Lima Head of the Economics Studies Division Economics Department Berlin 19/12/2016 11/01/2017 1 Slow recovery of investment, with strong heterogeneity Overall
More informationSTAT/14/ October 2014
STAT/14/158-21 October 2014 Provision of deficit and debt data for 2013 - second notification Euro area and EU28 government deficit at 2.9% and 3.2% of GDP respectively Government debt at 90.9% and 85.4%
More informationScenario for the European Insurance and Occupational Pensions Authority s EU-wide insurance stress test in 2016
17 March 2016 ECB-PUBLIC Scenario for the European Insurance and Occupational Pensions Authority s EU-wide insurance stress test in 2016 Introduction In accordance with its mandate, the European Insurance
More informationEnterprise Europe Network SME growth forecast
Enterprise Europe Network SME growth forecast 2017-18 een.ec.europa.eu Foreword Since we came into office three years ago, this European Commission has put the creation of more jobs and growth at the centre
More informationEurozone Economic Watch. February 2018
Eurozone Economic Watch February 2018 Eurozone: Strong growth continues in 1Q18, but confidence seems to peak GDP growth moderated slightly in, but there was an upward revision to previous quarters. Available
More informationJanuary 2005 Euro-zone external trade deficit 2.2 bn euro 14.0 bn euro deficit for EU25
42/2005-23 March 2005 January 2005 Euro-zone external trade deficit 2.2 14.0 deficit for EU25 The first estimate for euro-zone 1 trade with the rest of the world in January 2005 was a 2.2 billion euro
More informationJune Introduction Relevance of the database Extractions Hits Completeness...6
June 2005 1 Introduction...2 2 Relevance of the database...3 2.1 Extractions...3 2.2 Hits...5 3 Completeness...6 3.1 Coverage of the database...6 3.2 Geographical level...9 3.3 Distribution by domain...11
More informationCENTRAL BANK OF THE REPUBLIC OF TURKEY
CENTRAL BANK OF THE REPUBLIC OF TURKEY Growth and Financial System Durmuş YILMAZ Governor February, 211 1 Presentation Outline I. Recent Developments in the Turkish Economy II. III. Monetary Policy Policy
More informationTHE ECONOMY AND THE BANKING SECTOR IN BULGARIA
THE ECONOMY AND THE BANKING SECTOR IN BULGARIA SECOND QUARTER OF 2018 SOFIA HIGHLIGHTS The Bulgarian economy recorded growth of 3,6% on an annual basis in Q1 2018, driven by the private consumption and
More information34 th Associates Meeting - Andorra, 25 May Item 5: Evolution of economic governance in the EU
34 th Associates Meeting - Andorra, 25 May 2012 - Item 5: Evolution of economic governance in the EU Plan of the Presentation 1. Fiscal and economic coordination: how did it start? 2. Did it work? 3. Five
More informationMarch 2005 Euro-zone external trade surplus 4.2 bn euro 6.5 bn euro deficit for EU25
STAT/05/67 24 May 2005 March 2005 Euro-zone external trade surplus 4.2 6.5 deficit for EU25 The first estimate for euro-zone 1 trade with the rest of the world in March 2005 was a 4.2 billion euro surplus,
More informationInvestment and Investment Finance. the EU and the Polish story. Debora Revoltella
Investment and Investment Finance the EU and the Polish story Debora Revoltella Director - Economics Department EIB Warsaw 27 February 2017 Narodowy Bank Polski European Investment Bank Contents We look
More informationEconomic recovery and employment in the EU. Raymond Torres, Director, ILO Research Department
Economic recovery and employment in the EU Raymond Torres, Director, ILO Research Department Outline of presentation I. Situation in the EU versus Japan and the US II. Role of macroeconomic policies and
More informationPRESENTATION BY JACOB A. FRENKEL AT THE FORUM: INTELLIGENCE ON THE WORLD, EUROPE, AND ITALY. Villa d'este, Cernobbio - September 7, 8 and 9, 2012
PRESENTATION BY JACOB A. FRENKEL AT THE FORUM: INTELLIGENCE ON THE WORLD, EUROPE, AND ITALY Villa d'este, Cernobbio - September 7, 8 and 9, 1 Working paper, September 1. Kindly authorized by the Author.
More informationEMPLOYMENT RATE Employed/Working age population (15 64 years)
EMPLOYMENT RATE 198 26 Employed/Working age population (15 64 years 8 % Finland 75 EU 15 EU 25 7 65 6 55 5 8 82 84 86 88 9 92 94 96 98 2 4** 6** 14.4.25/SAK /TL Source: European Commission 1 UNEMPLOYMENT
More informationComposition of capital IT044 IT044 POWSZECHNAIT044 UNIONE DI BANCHE ITALIANE SCPA (UBI BANCA)
Composition of capital POWSZECHNA (in million Euro) Capital position CRD3 rules A) Common equity before deductions (Original own funds without hybrid instruments and government support measures other than
More informationThe Challenge of Public Pension Reform in Advanced and Emerging Economies
The Challenge of Public Pension Reform in Advanced and Emerging Economies Mauricio Soto Fiscal Affairs Department International Monetary Fund January 212 The views expressed herein are those of the author
More informationTurkey: Recent Developments and Future Prospects. ISBANK Economic Research Division May 2018
Turkey: Recent Developments and Future Prospects ISBANK Economic Research Division May 2018 Macroeconomic Outlook Strong Economic Growth Cycle GDP of 851 bn USD (2017), 10.6k USD (2017) per capita Average
More informationRegional Economic Outlook
E U R Advanced Europe Emerging Europe Regional Economic Outlook Spring 18 Key Messages Strong economic growth but lead indicators point to a peak Much lower wage growth in most of advanced Europe than
More informationGlobal Economic Prospects
Global Economic Prospects Back from the Brink? Andrew Burns World Bank Prospects Group April 12, 212 1 Amid some signs of improvement, global recovery remains fragile First quarter of 212 has been generally
More informationTHE ECONOMY AND THE BANKING SECTOR IN BULGARIA
THE ECONOMY AND THE BANKING SECTOR IN BULGARIA THIRD QUARTER OF 2018 SOFIA HIGHLIGHTS The Bulgarian economy recorded growth of 3,2% on an annual basis in Q2 2018, driven by the private consumption and
More informationAdverse scenario for the European Insurance and Occupational Pensions Authority s EU-wide insurance stress test in 2018
9 April 218 ECB-PUBLIC Adverse scenario for the European Insurance and Occupational Pensions Authority s EU-wide insurance stress test in 218 Introduction In accordance with its mandate, the European Insurance
More informationEU Market Situation for Poultry. Committee for the Common Organisation of the Agricultural Markets 22 March 2018
EU Market Situation for Poultry Committee for the Common Organisation of the Agricultural Markets 22 March 218 -.2% -.8% -1.1% -2.4% -2.9% -3.3% -4.2% -4.5% 5.1% 4.6% 4.5% 3.8% 3.3% 2.7% 2.4% 1.5% 1.1%
More informationThe EFTA Statistical Office: EEA - the figures and their use
The EFTA Statistical Office: EEA - the figures and their use EEA Seminar Brussels, 13 September 2012 1 Statistics Comparable, impartial and reliable statistical data are a prerequisite for a democratic
More informationMay 2009 Euro area annual inflation down to 0.0% EU down to 0.7%
STAT/09/88 16 June 2009 May 2009 Euro area annual inflation down to 0.0% EU down to 0.7% Euro area 1 annual inflation was 0.0% in May 2009 2, down from 0.6% in April. A year earlier the rate was 3.7%.
More informationEUROPA - Press Releases - Taxation trends in the European Union EU27 tax...of GDP in 2008 Steady decline in top corporate income tax rate since 2000
DG TAXUD STAT/10/95 28 June 2010 Taxation trends in the European Union EU27 tax ratio fell to 39.3% of GDP in 2008 Steady decline in top corporate income tax rate since 2000 The overall tax-to-gdp ratio1
More informationTHE ECONOMY AND THE BANKING SECTOR IN BULGARIA IN 2018
THE ECONOMY AND THE BANKING SECTOR IN BULGARIA IN 2018 SOFIA HIGHLIGHTS In 2018 the Bulgarian economy recorded growth of 3,1% on an annual basis, driven by the private consumption and investments; The
More information2017 Figures summary 1
Annual Press Conference on January 18 th 2018 EIB Group Results 2017 2017 Figures summary 1 European Investment Bank (EIB) financing EUR 69.88 billion signed European Investment Fund (EIF) financing EUR
More informationDG TAXUD. STAT/11/100 1 July 2011
DG TAXUD STAT/11/100 1 July 2011 Taxation trends in the European Union Recession drove EU27 overall tax revenue down to 38.4% of GDP in 2009 Half of the Member States hiked the standard rate of VAT since
More informationEuro-QE at the end of the road for now
Germany France Italy Agencies Spain Netherlands Belgium Austria Portugal Finland Ireland Slovakia Slovenia Lux Latvia Lithuania Malta 7.8 2.6 2.1 3.21 1.17 Trend Macrolytics, LLC Donald Luskin, Chief Investment
More informationAugust 2005 Euro-zone external trade deficit 2.6 bn euro 14.2 bn euro deficit for EU25
STAT/05/132 20 October 2005 August 2005 Euro-zone external trade deficit 2.6 14.2 deficit for EU25 The first estimate for euro-zone 1 trade with the rest of the world in August 2005 was a 2.6 billion euro
More informationCOMMISSION DECISION of 23 April 2012 on the second set of common safety targets as regards the rail system (notified under document C(2012) 2084)
27.4.2012 Official Journal of the European Union L 115/27 COMMISSION DECISION of 23 April 2012 on the second set of common safety targets as regards the rail system (notified under document C(2012) 2084)
More informationNOTE. for the Interparliamentary Meeting of the Committee on Budgets
NOTE for the Interparliamentary Meeting of the Committee on Budgets THE ROLE OF THE EU BUDGET TO SUPPORT MEMBER STATES IN ACHIEVING THEIR ECONOMIC OBJECTIVES AS AGREED WITHIN THE FRAMEWORK OF THE EUROPEAN
More informationSovereign Risks and Financial Spillovers
Sovereign Risks and Financial Spillovers International Monetary Fund October 21 Roadmap What is the Outlook for Global Financial Stability? Sovereign Risks and Financial Fragilities Sovereign and Banking
More informationThe ECB's drive to build purchased assets
Germany France Italy Agencies Spain Netherlands Belgium Austria Portugal Finland Ireland Slovakia Slovenia Lux Latvia Lithuania Malta 7.8 2.6 2. 3.1 1.11 Trend Macrolytics, LLC Donald Luskin, Chief Investment
More informationHigh Debt, Slow Growth, Financial Instability, Growing Inequality: What Role for Economic Policy?
High Debt, Slow Growth, Financial Instability, Growing Inequality: What Role for Economic Policy? Paul van den Noord Counsellor to the Chief Economist, OECD 1 Central projection growth, annualised, in
More informationThe ECB's drive to build purchased assets
Germany France Italy Agencies Spain Netherlands Belgium Austria Portugal Finland Ireland Slovakia Slovenia Lux Latvia Lithuania Malta 7.6 2.5 1.9 2.86 1.11 Trend Macrolytics, LLC Donald Luskin, Chief Investment
More informationInvestment and competitivenss" Boris Vujčić, guverner
Investment and competitivenss" Boris Vujčić, guverner e-mail: boris.vujcic@hnb.hr Outline Capital investment and FDI developments in Croatia and peer countries Structural position of Croatia Why are some
More informationEurozone Economic Watch. November 2017
Eurozone Economic Watch November 2017 Eurozone: improved outlook, still subdued inflation Our MICA-BBVA model for growth estimates for the moment a quarterly GDP figure of around -0.7% in, after % QoQ
More informationApproach to Employment Injury (EI) compensation benefits in the EU and OECD
Approach to (EI) compensation benefits in the EU and OECD The benefits of protection can be divided in three main groups. The cash benefits include disability pensions, survivor's pensions and other short-
More informationH Marie Skłodowska-Curie Actions (MSCA)
H2020 Key facts and figures (2014-2020) Number of NL researchers funded by MSCA: EU budget awarded to NL organisations (EUR million): Number of NL organisations in MSCA: 427 268.91 351 In detail, the number
More informationMacroeconomic scenarios for skill demand and supply projections, including dealing with the recession
Alphametrics (AM) Alphametrics Ltd Macroeconomic scenarios for skill demand and supply projections, including dealing with the recession Paper presented at Skillsnet technical workshop on: Forecasting
More informationH Marie Skłodowska-Curie Actions (MSCA)
H2020 Key facts and figures (2014-2020) Number of FI researchers funded by MSCA: EU budget awarded to FI organisations (EUR million): Number of FI organisations in MSCA: 155 47.93 89 In detail, the number
More informationQuarterly Gross Domestic Product of Montenegro for period 1 st quarter rd quarter 2016
Government of Montenegro Statistical Office of Montenegro Quarterly Gross Domestic Product of Montenegro for period 1 st quarter 015 - rd quarter 016 The release presents the final results of quarterly
More informationEnterprise Europe Network SME growth outlook
Enterprise Europe Network SME growth outlook 2018-19 een.ec.europa.eu 2 Enterprise Europe Network SME growth outlook 2018-19 Foreword The European Commission wants to ensure that small and medium-sized
More informationMacroeconomic Policies in Europe: Quo Vadis A Comment
Macroeconomic Policies in Europe: Quo Vadis A Comment February 12, 2016 Helene Schuberth Outline Staff Projection of the Euro Area Monetary Policy Investment Rebalancing in the euro area Fiscal Policy
More informationThe Tax Burden of Typical Workers in the EU
The Tax Burden of Typical Workers in the EU 28 2018 James Rogers Cécile Philippe Institut Économique Molinari, Paris Bruxelles TABLE OF CONTENTS Abstract... 3 Background... 3 Main Results... 4 On average,
More information