Growth, competitiveness and jobs: priorities for the European Semester 2013 Presentation of J.M. Barroso,
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1 Growth, competitiveness and jobs: priorities for the European Semester 213 Presentation of J.M. Barroso, President of the European Commission, to the European Council of 14-1 March 213
2 Economic recovery will be gradual GDP trends in the EU: levels and rates GDP level (27 = 1) GDP rate (annual) forecasts Presentation of J.M. Barroso to the European Council, 14-1 March 213 1
3 Job creation will be subdued Number of people employed in the EU (in million) 23 forecasts Presentation of J.M. Barroso to the European Council, 14-1 March 213 2
4 Competitiveness is key Global competitiveness index Rank Country Rank Country 1 Switzerland 36 Spain 2 Singapore 39 Czech Republic 3 Finland 41 Poland 4 Sweden 42 Italy Netherlands 4 Lithuania 6 Germany 47 Malta 7 United States 49 Portugal 8 United Kingdom Latvia 9 Hong Kong SAR 6 Slovenia 1 Japan 8 Cyprus 12 Denmark 6 Hungary 16 Austria 62 Bulgaria 17 Belgium 71 Slovak Republic 21 France 78 Romania 22 Luxembourg 81 Croatia 27 Ireland 96 Greece 34 Estonia Presentation of J.M. Barroso to the European Council, 14-1 March 213 Source: World Economic Forum 3
5 Long-term performance varies significantly Productivity levels and trends (hourly productivity levels in per hour worked) per hour worked IE FR DE ES IT EU average EL PT LV Presentation of J.M. Barroso to the European Council, 14-1 March 213 4
6 This shows in our trade record Changes in the share of the world export market % 7 Gains 2 FR UK IT ES NL BE SE AT DK EL FI PT IE CY MT EU US JP -3 DE PL CZ RO HU SK LU BG SI LT LV EE China Losses Presentation of J.M. Barroso to the European Council, 14-1 March 213
7 Annual Growth Survey 213: five priorities Pursuing differentiated, growth-friendly fiscal consolidation Restoring normal lending to the economy Promoting growth and competitiveness for today and tomorrow Tackling unemployment and the social consequences of the crisis Modernising public administration Presentation of J.M. Barroso to the European Council, 14-1 March 213 6
8 Fiscal consolidation and growth: a debated issue (1) Trends in GDP, unemployment and budget deficits in selected Member States Unemployment rate Ireland Greece Budget deficit (% GDP) Presentation of J.M. Barroso to the European Council, 14-1 March 213 Note: the scales vary for each country Real GDP growth (right-hand scale) Latvia Portugal
9 Fiscal consolidation and growth: a debated issue (2) Trends in GDP, unemployment and budget deficits in selected Member States Unemployment rate Spain France Budget deficit (% GDP) Presentation of J.M. Barroso to the European Council, 14-1 March 213 Note: the scales vary for each country Real GDP growth (right-hand scale) Italy Germany
10 Current accounts are improving Current account balances (% of GDP) (forecast) % of GDP - EL PT PL RO CY CZ ES LT IT FR SK LV FI UK MT SI EE BE HU IE AT BG DE DK LU SE NL -1-1 Presentation of J.M. Barroso to the European Council, 14-1 March 213 9
11 Imbalances are being corrected (1) Trends in current account balances and unit labour costs in selected Member States Unit labour costs, in EUR (2 = 1) Unit labour costs relative to trade partners (2 = 1) Current account surplus/deficit in % of GDP (right-hand scale) Ireland Latvia Greece Presentation of J.M. Barroso to the European Council, 14-1 March 213 Note: the scales vary for each country Portugal
12 Imbalances are being corrected (2) Trends in current account balances and unit labour costs in selected Member States Unit labour costs, in EUR (2 = 1) Unit labour costs relative to trade partners (2 = 1) Current account surplus/deficit in % of GDP (right-hand scale) Spain Italy France Germany Presentation of J.M. Barroso to the European Council, 14-1 March 213 Note: the scales vary for each country 11
13 Structural adjustments are taking place Changes in the composition of current account adjustment pps. of GDP IE LV PT ES EL DE IT FR IE LV PT ES EL DE IT FR IE LV PT ES EL DE IT FR Exports Imports Income and transfers Presentation of J.M. Barroso to the European Council, 14-1 March
14 Energy prices matter for competitiveness Electricity prices for industry in / kwh (2 nd semester 211) Total price (all taxes included) Energy & supply costs Network costs Taxes & levies (excluding VAT) VAT,2,2,1,1,, BG EE FI FR* RO LU NL PT PL EL LT CZ HU* LV AT ES EU* BE IE DE MT IT DK CY * For FR and HU, and hence for the EU, disaggregated data are not available, Presentation of J.M. Barroso to the European Council, 14-1 March 213 so only the total for "energy, supply and network costs" is shown. 13
15 Raising innovation levels is a priority R&D investments in the EU as a % of GDP 211 performance* 22 national target** % 4, 4, 3, 3, 2, 2, 1, 1,,, EU target FI SE DK DE AT SI EE FR BE NL EU CZ UK IE PT LU ES IT HU LT PL MT LV SK EL BG CY RO * EL: 27. **No targets set by EL and the UK. For CZ: a target (of 1%) is available only for the public sector. For IE: the target is 2.% of GNP which is estimated to be equivalent to 2.% of GDP. For LU: the target is between 2.3% and 2.6% (2.4% was assumed). Presentation of J.M. Barroso to the European Council, 14-1 March
16 Education and skills are also key Share of young people (age 3-34) with tertiary attainment 212 performance 22 national target 7 6 % 4 3 EU target 2 1 IE CY LU* SV LT UK FI FR* BE DK NL ES EE SL PL* LV EU DE* EL HU BG PT AT CZ SK MT RO IT Presentation of J.M. Barroso to the European Council, 14-1 March 213 * 211 data 1
17 The example of the ICT sector Digital jobs: vacancies and graduates* (numbers) Vacancies in the digital sector New ICT graduates * Surveys and forecasts assuming moderate growth in GDP and ICT investment. Only ICT graduates are considered here. Presentation of J.M. Barroso to the European Council, 14-1 March 213 Source: Empirica 16
18 We need to redouble our efforts to combat unemployment, especially among young people Unemployment rates and numbers of unemployed, overall and among young people (under 2) (December 212) Unemployment rates in % (total population) Number of persons unemployed (rounded) Youth unemployment rates in % Number of young unemployed (rounded) Unemployment rates in % (total population) Number of persons unemployed (rounded) Youth unemployment rates in % Number of young unemployed (rounded) EU BE BG CZ DK DE EE IE EL ES FR IT CY LV LT LU HU MT NL AT PL PT RO SI SK FI SE UK Presentation of J.M. Barroso to the European Council, 14-1 March
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