Recovery at risk? - CEE external vulnerability and Poland Article IV preliminary conclusions
|
|
|
- Liliana Betty Grant
- 5 years ago
- Views:
Transcription
1 Central, Eastern and Southeastern Europe (CESEE) Recovery at risk? - CEE external vulnerability and Poland Article IV preliminary conclusions CASE, Warsaw - May 27, 214 James Roaf Senior Resident Representative IMF Regional Office for Central and Eastern Europe
2 Outline Outlook for the region External funding patterns and risks Policy priorities Poland Article IV 2
3 Growth picked up in 213H2 CESEE excl. RUS & TUR: Contributions to Real GDP Growth 1 (Percent) Euro area - real GDP growth Real GDP growth Domestic Demand Net exports Q1 21Q1 211Q1 212Q1 213Q1 213Q4
4 Drivers of growth different across region... 8 CEE (Percent) 8 SEE 8 Russia 8 Turkey (Percent) (Percent) (Percent) Q Q4 213Q1 Real GDP growth Q4 213Q1 213Q4 213Q1 213Q4 Consumption Investment Net exports
5 ... but recovery is mostly creditless... 5 Credit to Nonfinancial Corporations (Percent, year-over-year, nominal exchange-rate adjusted) 4 3 TUR 2 1 RUS Baltics+CEE+SEE -1 Jan-9 Sep-1 May-12 Jan-14
6 ... while external funding flows became more volatile post-taper talk 3 CESEE excl. RUS & TUR: Capital Flows (Billions of US dollars) 2 1 Total -1 Bank loans & other investment Portfolio investment -2 FDI 29:Q1 21:Q1 211:Q1 212:Q1 213:Q1 213:Q4
7 Growth is expected to accelerate... CESEE excl. RUS & TUR: Contributions to Real GDP Growth 1 (Percent) Euro area - real GDP growth Real GDP growth Domestic Demand Net exports Q1 21Q1 211Q1 212Q1 213Q1 213Q
8 ...but projections have been revised downwards. Real GDP Growth, 214 (Percent) 5 Oct 213 WEO 4 TUR TUR LTU LTU MKD MKD RUS RUS 3 BLR BLR ROU ROU BIH ALB BIH ALB SRB SRB 2 HRV HRV SVN SVN BGR BGR CZE CZE HUN HUN EST EST SVK SVK MNE MNE POL POL MDA MDA UVK UVK LVA LVA
9 ...but projections have been revised downwards. Real GDP Growth, 214 (Percent) 5 Apr 214 WEO 4 TUR RUS 3 BLR SRB 2 HRV SRB 1 SVN -1-2 HRV SVN HUN BGRCZE BLR BGR RUS CZE HUN LTU MKD LTU MKD POL MNE EST SVK TUR SVK EST MNE POL ROU ROU ALB BIH ALB BIH MDA MDA LVA LVA UVK UVK
10 Key Risks Protracted weak growth in euro area Increasing geopolitical tensions Global financial market volatility
11 Risks from geopolitical tensions: trade linkages with Russia and Ukraine Exports to Russia and Ukraine (Percent of trading partner GDP) >
12 > Risks from geopolitical tensions: Dependence on Russian gas Imports of gas imports (Percent of total gas consumption)
13 CESEE External Funding Patterns and Risks 1 2 External Funding Structures External Funding Conditions
14 CESEE External Funding Patterns and Risks 1 2 External Funding Structures External Funding Conditions
15 High dependence on external funding Baltics CEE Gross External Liabilities (Percent of GDP) SEE 28 8 East3 CESEE RUS TUR 4
16 High dependence on external funding 16 Baltics CEE Gross External Liabilities (Percent of GDP) 12 Baltics CEE SEE SEE 212 East3 CESEE 8 East3 RUS RUS TUR TUR CESEE Average of other EMs 4
17 Significant share is FDIs 16 Baltics CEE Gross External Liabilities (Percent of GDP) SEE FDI stock East3 CESEE TUR 8 RUS 4
18 Private sector accounts for most of the external debt 16 Baltics CEE External Debt (Percent of GDP) 12 8 Baltics CEE SEE SEE 212 East3 East3 RUS TUR TUR Public Private CESEE CESEE 4 RUS Average of other EMs
19 Funding structure matters Private External Debt Structures (Percent of GDP, 212) 12 Debt securities Direct cross-border lending Parent bank lending Inter-company lending UVK ALB RUS TUR BLR SVK CZE LTU POL MKD BIH ROU UKR MDA SRB SVN HRV BGR EST HUN LVA
20 Taking out funding from affiliated entities gives a different picture Private External Funding from Non-Affiliated Sources (Percent of GDP, 212) 6 Debt securities Direct cross-border lending UVK ALB RUS TUR BLR SVK CZE LTU POL MKD BIH ROU UKR MDA SRB SVN HRV BGR EST HUN LVA
21 FX risks arise from external borrowing, but also from FX or FX-linked domestic loans FX or FX-Linked Loans to Nonfinancial Private Sector 1 8 (Percent of GDP, 213) FX or FX-linked domestic loans Direct cross-border lending to nonfinancial private sector HRV SRB UKR MKD HUN BLR ROU TUR ALB POL RUS
22 Public sector is exposed to foreign funding and exchange rate risks as well Public Debt and Foreign Exchange Risks (Percent of GDP, 213) 8 Rest Public debt exposed to FX risk EST RUS BGR LVA MKD TUR BLR ROU LTU BIH CZE SVK POL HRV SRB ALB SVN HUN
23 Some countries have both high external and fiscal financing needs Financing Needs (Percent of GDP, 214) Fiscal financing needs 3 ALB Median HRV HUN 2 SRB SVN BLR MKD POL 1 CZE BIH ROU SVK LTU LVA BGR RUS Median TUR EST 1 2 External financing needs 3 4
24 To sum up: sources of external funding risks Stock vulnerabilities Flow vulnerabilities External fundamentals Stock of debt External financing needs Exchange rate misalignment External funding from non-affiliated sources Fiscal financing needs Reserve buffers Debt denominated or linked to FX Funding costs
25 Countries susceptible to external funding risks External Fundamentals BLR EST SVN HRV TUR HUN SRB Stock Vulnerability Flow Vulnerability
26 CESEE External Funding Patterns and Risks 1 2 External Funding Structures External Funding Conditions
27 CESEE region has undergone large scale foreign bank funding reduction since the crisis External Position of BIS-Reporting Banks, 23:Q1-213:Q (Billions of US dollars, exchange-rate adjusted vis-à-vis all sectors) CESEE CESEE ex. RUS & TUR 5 25 Oct-8 Sep-11 May-13 23:Q1 26:Q3 21:Q1 213:Q3
28 Reversal of portfolio inflows since taper talk Cumulative EPFR Flows into CESEE ETFs and Mutual Funds 4 25 Bond Equity (Billions of US dollars) 1 Oct-8 Sep-11 May-13-5 Jan-3 Jul-7 Jan-12 Apr-14
29 accompanied by a divergence in bond market spreads EMBIG Spreads Indices, Jan Apr 214 (May 21, 213 = 1) BLR RUS TUR & UKR (simple avg.) Others (simple avg.) May 22, 213 Jan 21, 214 Jan-13 Jul-13 Jan-14 Apr-14
30 While external factors are important, domestic fundamentals also matter 1 External and Domestic Drivers (Percent of variance) External factors Domestic factors Residual CDS/EMBIG spreads Local bond yields Portfolio flows Cross-border bank flows
31 Near term policy priorities Monetary & Exchange Rate Flexibility Targeted Liquidity Provision Active Debt Management International Cooperation 31
32 Medium term policy priorities Rebuild Fiscal Buffers Address Crisis Legacies Address Structural Weaknesses Diversify Funding Sources 32
33 Outline Outlook for the region External funding patterns and risks Policy priorities Poland Article IV 33
34 Main messages from annual consultation Steady recovery from slowdown External risks remain, FCL helps Inflation low, challenge for monetary policy Fiscal consolidation at appropriate pace Pension system changes don t address legacy issues Financial sector resilient, but supervisory framework needs further work Labor market and business climate reforms needed 34
35 Recovery picking up momentum 5 Real GDP growth Back CESEE Poland Euro Zone
36 Real rates rising as inflation falls 6. (percent) Back Policy rate y/y inflation rate
37 Calibrated fiscal policy (percent of GDP) Structural deficit Headline deficit Back
38 Pension changes Improve fiscal aggregates by about 3 percent of GDP in present value terms But implicit liabilities rise in turn Liquidity in bond and equity markets could fall Legacy flaws pose long-term risks fix zero floor in indexation mechanism align disability pension formula with regular benefits address imbalances in special occupational schemes low replacement rates threaten old-age poverty and fiscal pressures Back 38
39 Main messages from annual consultation Steady recovery from slowdown External risks remain, FCL helps Inflation low, challenge for monetary policy Fiscal consolidation at appropriate pace Pension system changes don t address legacy issues Financial sector resilient, but supervisory framework needs further work fix legal and tax obstacles to NPL resolution restructure credit unions finalize Systemic Risk Board legislation Back 39
40 Business climate Doing Business 214 rank Denmark UK Finland Sweden Ireland Lithuania Germany Estonia Latvia Macedonia Netherlands Austria Portugal Slovenia Belgium France Cyprus Montenegro Poland Slovakia Spain Hungary Bulgaria Luxembourg Italy Turkey Greece Romania Czech Rep. Kosovo Croatia Albania Serbia Malta Bosnia Back 4
41 Thank you! 41
Recovery at risk? Central and Eastern Europe remains vulnerable to external funding threats.
Central, Eastern and Southeastern Europe (CESEE) Recovery at risk? Central and Eastern Europe remains vulnerable to external funding threats. May 5, 214 James Roaf Senior Resident Representative IMF Regional
MIND THE CREDIT GAP. Spring 2015 Regional Economic Issues Report on Central, Eastern and Southeastern Europe (CESEE) recovery. repair.
Spring 215 Regional Economic Issues Report on Central, Eastern and Southeastern Europe (CESEE) repair recovery MIND THE CREDIT GAP downturn expansion May, 215 Growth Divergence in 214 Quarterly GDP Growth,
CESEE Deleveraging and Credit Monitor 1
CESEE Deleveraging and Credit Monitor 1 June 5, 218 Key Developments in BIS Banks External Positions and Domestic Credit and Key Messages from the CESEE Bank Lending Survey Deleveraging of western banks
CESEE DELEVERAGING AND CREDIT MONITOR 1
CESEE DELEVERAGING AND CREDIT MONITOR 1 November 17, 215 Key developments in BIS Banks External Positions and Domestic Credit The reduction of external positions of BIS reporting banks vis-à-vis Central,
The IMF, CESEE and Banking
The IMF, CESEE and Banking 34 th BACEE Regional Banking Conference Budapest, April 1-11, 217 Bas B. Bakker Senior Regional Resident Representative for Central and Eastern Europe The IMF has had close involvement
Economic outlook in the Western Balkans
Economic outlook in the Western Balkans Holger Muent, Regional Head Western Balkans June 217 The Western Balkans convergence challenge: decades or centuries? FullconvergencewithEUlivingstandardscanrangefrom4yearsinanoptimisticscenariotomorethan2
Central, Eastern, and Southeastern Europe: The Past and Future of Convergence
Central, Eastern, and Southeastern Europe: The Past and Future of Convergence LSE SU Emerging Markets Forum London, March 1, 218 Bas B. Bakker Senior Regional Resident Representative for Central, Eastern
Recovery and Challenges in Eastern Europe
Recovery and Challenges in Eastern Europe OECD - 7th annual meeting of Senior Budget Officials from Central, Eastern and South-Eastern European countries (CESEE) Zagreb, Croatia, 3 June - 1 July 211 Franziska
Regional Economic Issues in CESEE
Regional Economic Issues in CESEE JVI Lecture, Vienna, February 8, 2017 Bas B. Bakker Senior Regional Resident Representative for Central and Eastern Europe Outlook for CESEE 2 Within CESEE dichotomy:
Pensions at a Glance: Europe and Central Asia
Pensions at a Glance: Europe and Central Asia Edward Whitehouse Head of Pension-Policy Analysis Social Policy division OECD European Commission/ World Bank conference Reforming Pension Systems in Europe
Public Pension Spending Trends and Outlook in Emerging Europe. Benedict Clements Fiscal Affairs Department International Monetary Fund March 2013
Public Pension Spending Trends and Outlook in Emerging Europe Benedict Clements Fiscal Affairs Department International Monetary Fund March 13 Plan of Presentation I. Trends and drivers of public pension
Why Have Some CESEE Countries Done Better Than Others since Early Transition?
Why Have Some CESEE Countries Done Better Than Others since Early Transition? IMF Macroeconomic Policy Seminar Vienna, June 13, 2018 Bas B. Bakker Senior Regional Resident Representative for Central, Eastern
Main Risks for Belarussian Economy and Prospects for Belarus-IMF cooperation
Main Risks for Belarussian Economy and Prospects for Belarus-IMF cooperation Workshop Economic Environment for Businesses Minsk, December 14, 216 Bas B. Bakker Senior Regional Resident Representative for
State Involvement and Economic Growth
State Involvement and Economic Growth (The Future of the European Economy: Over to the State, or to the Market?) 27th Economic Forum Krynica, Poland September 2017 Bas B. Bakker Senior Regional Resident
Regional Economic Outlook
E U R Advanced Europe Emerging Europe Regional Economic Outlook Spring 18 Key Messages Strong economic growth but lead indicators point to a peak Much lower wage growth in most of advanced Europe than
SEE macroeconomic outlook Recovery gains traction, fiscal discipline improving. Alen Kovac, Chief Economist EBC May 2016 Ljubljana
SEE macroeconomic outlook Recovery gains traction, fiscal discipline improving Alen Kovac, Chief Economist EBC May 216 Ljubljana Real economy highlights Recent GDP track record reveals more favorable footprint
Macroeconomic overview SEE and Macedonia
Macroeconomic overview SEE and Macedonia Zoltan Arokszallasi Chief Analyst, Macro & FX/FI Research Erste Group Bank Erste Investors Breakfast, 29 September, Skopje 02. Oktober SEE shows mixed performance
Spain France. England Netherlands. Wales Ukraine. Republic of Ireland Czech Republic. Romania Albania. Serbia Israel. FYR Macedonia Latvia
Germany Belgium Portugal Spain France Switzerland Italy England Netherlands Iceland Poland Croatia Slovakia Russia Austria Wales Ukraine Sweden Bosnia-Herzegovina Republic of Ireland Czech Republic Turkey
CESEE DELEVERAGING AND CREDIT MONITOR 1
CESEE DELEVERAGING AND CREDIT MONITOR 1 December 6, 216 Key developments in BIS Banks External Positions and Domestic Credit and Key Messages from the CESEE Bank Lending Survey The external positions of
CESEE DELEVERAGING AND CREDIT MONITOR 1
CESEE DELEVERAGING AND CREDIT MONITOR 1 May 11, 217 Key developments in BIS Banks External Positions and Domestic Credit and Key Messages from the CESEE Bank Lending Survey The external positions of BIS
CESEE DELEVERAGING AND CREDIT MONITOR 1
CESEE DELEVERAGING AND CREDIT MONITOR 1 May 27, 214 In 213:Q4, BIS reporting banks reduced their external positions to CESEE countries by.3 percent of GDP, roughly by the same amount as in Q3. The scale
EU-28 RECOVERED PAPER STATISTICS. Mr. Giampiero MAGNAGHI On behalf of EuRIC
EU-28 RECOVERED PAPER STATISTICS Mr. Giampiero MAGNAGHI On behalf of EuRIC CONTENTS EU-28 Paper and Board: Consumption and Production EU-28 Recovered Paper: Effective Consumption and Collection EU-28 -
The European Financial and Competitiveness Crisis: the Central-Eastern and Southeastern European (CESEE) situation
Wiener Institut für Internationale Wirtschaftsvergleiche The Vienna Institute for International Economic Studies www.wiiw.ac.at The European Financial and Competitiveness Crisis: the Central-Eastern and
Non-Performing Loans in CESEE
Non-Performing Loans in CESEE Vienna, September 23, 2014 James Roaf Senior Resident Representative IMF Regional Office for Central and Eastern Europe, Warsaw High NPLs ratios need to be addressed Boom-bust
The Cyprus Economy: from Recovery to Sustainable Growth. Vincenzo Guzzo Resident Representative in Cyprus
The Economy: from Recovery to Sustainable Growth Vincenzo Guzzo Resident Representative in Growth momentum remains strong 18 : Real GDP ( billion) 1 Deviation from Pre-Crisis Level and Trend (Percent)
NPLs in Hungary. a regional perspective. Budapest, March 3, 2015
NPLs in a regional perspective Budapest, March 3, 215 James Roaf Senior Resident Representative IMF Regional Office for Central and Eastern Europe, Warsaw Diverging NPL ratios 2 NPLs as percent of total
Comparing pay trends in the public services and private sector. Labour Research Department 7 June 2018 Brussels
Comparing pay trends in the public services and private sector Labour Research Department 7 June 2018 Brussels Issued to be covered The trends examined The varying patterns over 14 years and the impact
Post-crisis bank business models in Central and Southeastern Europe. Erik Berglof Chief Economist European Bank for Reconstruction and Development
Post-crisis bank business models in Central and Southeastern Europe Erik Berglof Chief Economist European Bank for Reconstruction and Development The region at the peak of the crisis: Strong impact, but
How Do the Challenges Facing Emerging Europe Compare?
How Do the Challenges Facing Emerging Europe Compare? 12 th CEI Summit Economic Forum Mark Allen Senior IMF Resident Representative for Central and Eastern Europe First Shock: collapse in trade 6 4 World
World Economic Outlook Central Europe and Baltic Countries
World Economic Outlook Central Europe and Baltic Countries Presentation by Susan Schadler and Christoph Rosenberg September 5 World growth returns to trend. (World real GDP growth, annual percent change)
The Challenge of Public Pension Reform in Advanced and Emerging Economies
The Challenge of Public Pension Reform in Advanced and Emerging Economies Mauricio Soto Fiscal Affairs Department International Monetary Fund January 212 The views expressed herein are those of the author
Mark Allen. Market power in CEE banking sectors and the impact of the global financial crisis. Discussion of Paper by Efthyvoulou and Yildirim
Market power in CEE banking sectors and the impact of the global financial crisis Discussion of Paper by Efthyvoulou and Yildirim CASE, Warsaw, February 15, 2013 Mark Allen Senior IMF Resident Representative
How to Get Back on the Fast Track?
REGIONAL ECONOMIC ISSUES REPORT ON CENTRAL, EASTERN AND SOUTHEASTERN EUROPE How to Get Back on the Fast Track? MAY, 216 EUROPEAN DEPARTMENT Map of Central, Eastern, and South-Eastern Europe Baltics CEE
Central and Eastern Europe: Global spillovers and external vulnerabilities
Central and Eastern Europe: Central and Eastern Europe: Global spillovers and external vulnerabilities ICEG Annual Conference Brussels, May 28 Christoph Rosenberg International Monetary Fund Overview The
Golden Aging in Emerging Europe and Central Asia
Golden Aging in Emerging Europe and Central Asia Emily Sinnott Europe and Central Asia Region Working Group on Ageing, Seventh Meeting, Geneva November 20, 2014 Related Work Aging-related Studies Emerging
34 th Associates Meeting - Andorra, 25 May Item 5: Evolution of economic governance in the EU
34 th Associates Meeting - Andorra, 25 May 2012 - Item 5: Evolution of economic governance in the EU Plan of the Presentation 1. Fiscal and economic coordination: how did it start? 2. Did it work? 3. Five
The Challenge of Public Pension Reform
The Challenge of Public Pension Reform Baoping Shang Fiscal Affairs Department International Monetary Fund May 4, 212 This presentation represents the views of the author and should not be attributed to
Taking Stock of Monetary and Exchange Rate Regimes in Emerging Europe
Taking Stock of Monetary and Exchange Rate Regimes in Emerging Europe Nazim Belhocine, Ernesto Crivelli, Nan Geng, Tiberiu Scutaru, Johannes Wiegand, and Zaijin Zhan Based on EUR Departmental Paper 03/16,
A Strategy for Resolving Europe s Problem Loans Anna Ilyina (IMF)
A Strategy for Resolving Europe s Problem Loans Anna Ilyina (IMF) 1 Scale of the NPL problem Macro-financial implications Institutional obstacles to NPL resolution A strategy to tackle high NPLs 1 Europe
Consumer credit market in Europe 2013 overview
Consumer credit market in Europe 2013 overview Crédit Agricole Consumer Finance published its annual survey of the consumer credit market in 28 European Union countries for seven years running. 9 July
The impact of global market volatility on the EBRD region. CSE and OCE September 02, 2015
The impact of global market volatility on the EBRD region CSE and OCE September 02, 2015 KEY RECENT DEVELOPMENTS IN CHINA AND COMMODITY MARKETS Emerging markets growth has been decelerating since 2009
Consumer Credit. Introduction. June, the 6th (2013)
Consumer Credit in Europe at end-2012 Introduction Crédit Agricole Consumer Finance has published its annual survey of the consumer credit market in 27 European Union countries (EU-27) for the sixth year
THE ECONOMY AND THE BANKING SECTOR IN BULGARIA
THE ECONOMY AND THE BANKING SECTOR IN BULGARIA SECOND QUARTER OF 2018 SOFIA HIGHLIGHTS The Bulgarian economy recorded growth of 3,6% on an annual basis in Q1 2018, driven by the private consumption and
Slovenia Country Profile
Slovenia Country Profile EU Tax Centre July 2015 Key tax factors for efficient cross-border business and investment involving Slovenia EU Member State Double Tax Treaties With: Albania Armenia Austria
THE ECONOMY AND THE BANKING SECTOR IN BULGARIA IN 2018
THE ECONOMY AND THE BANKING SECTOR IN BULGARIA IN 2018 SOFIA HIGHLIGHTS In 2018 the Bulgarian economy recorded growth of 3,1% on an annual basis, driven by the private consumption and investments; The
EU BUDGET AND NATIONAL BUDGETS
DIRECTORATE GENERAL FOR INTERNAL POLICIES POLICY DEPARTMENT ON BUDGETARY AFFAIRS EU BUDGET AND NATIONAL BUDGETS 1999-2009 October 2010 INDEX Foreward 3 Table 1. EU and National budgets 1999-2009; EU-27
Caucasus and Central Asia Regional Economic Outlook October 2011
Regional Economic Outlook October 211 Oil and gas exporters Oil and gas importers Kazakhstan Georgia Uzbekistan Kyrgyz Republic Armenia Azerbaijan Turkmenistan Tajikistan Overview Global outlook (CCA)
Enterprise Europe Network SME growth forecast
Enterprise Europe Network SME growth forecast 2017-18 een.ec.europa.eu Foreword Since we came into office three years ago, this European Commission has put the creation of more jobs and growth at the centre
January 2014 Euro area international trade in goods surplus 0.9 bn euro 13.0 bn euro deficit for EU28
STAT/14/41 18 March 2014 January 2014 Euro area international trade in goods surplus 0.9 13.0 deficit for EU28 The first estimate for the euro area 1 (EA18) trade in goods balance with the rest of the
Some Historical Examples of Yield Curves
3 months 6 months 1 year 2 years 5 years 10 years 30 years Some Historical Examples of Yield Curves Nominal interest rate, % 16 14 12 10 8 6 4 2 January 1981 June1999 December2009 0 Time to maturity This
OVERVIEW. The EU recovery is firming. Table 1: Overview - the winter 2014 forecast Real GDP. Unemployment rate. Inflation. Winter 2014 Winter 2014
OVERVIEW The EU recovery is firming Europe's economic recovery, which began in the second quarter of 2013, is expected to continue spreading across countries and gaining strength while at the same time
EMPLOYMENT RATE IN EU-COUNTRIES 2000 Employed/Working age population (15-64 years)
EMPLOYMENT RATE IN EU-COUNTRIES 2 Employed/Working age population (15-64 years EU-15 Denmark Netherlands Great Britain Sweden Portugal Finland Austria Germany Ireland Luxembourg France Belgium Greece Spain
Quarterly Gross Domestic Product of Montenegro 3 rd quarter 2017
MONTENEGRO STATISTICAL OFFICE R E L E A S E No: 224 Podgorica, 22 December 2017 When using the data, please name the source Quarterly Gross Domestic Product of Montenegro 3 rd quarter 2017 The release
Fiscal rules in Lithuania
Fiscal rules in Lithuania Algimantas Rimkūnas Vice Minister, Ministry of Finance of Lithuania 3 June, 2016 Evolution of National and EU Fiscal Regulations Stability and Growth Pact (SGP) Maastricht Treaty
Prospects for the Region
Prospects for the Region OECD South Caucasus and Ukraine Initiative Workshop on Financial Market Development Warsaw, November 17, 29 Mark Allen Senior IMF Resident Representative for Central and Eastern
THE ECONOMY AND THE BANKING SECTOR IN BULGARIA
THE ECONOMY AND THE BANKING SECTOR IN BULGARIA THIRD QUARTER OF 2018 SOFIA HIGHLIGHTS The Bulgarian economy recorded growth of 3,2% on an annual basis in Q2 2018, driven by the private consumption and
Live Long and Prosper? Demographic Change and Europe s Pensions Crisis. Dr. Jochen Pimpertz Brussels, 10 November 2015
Live Long and Prosper? Demographic Change and Europe s Pensions Crisis Dr. Jochen Pimpertz Brussels, 10 November 2015 Old-age-dependency ratio, EU28 45,9 49,4 50,2 39,0 27,5 31,8 2013 2020 2030 2040 2050
1. Managing the Upswing in Uncertain Times
1. Managing the Upswing in Uncertain Times Economic Activity Continues to Firm Up Europe continues to enjoy a strong growth spurt. Growth has firmed up in many European economies, including all the major
First estimate for 2011 Euro area external trade deficit 7.7 bn euro bn euro deficit for EU27
27/2012-15 February 2012 First estimate for 2011 Euro area external trade deficit 7.7 152.8 deficit for EU27 The first estimate for the euro area 1 (EA17) trade in goods balance with the rest of the world
May 2012 Euro area international trade in goods surplus of 6.9 bn euro 3.8 bn euro deficit for EU27
108/2012-16 July 2012 May 2012 Euro area international trade in goods surplus of 6.9 3.8 deficit for EU27 The first estimate for the euro area 1 (EA17) trade in goods balance with the rest of the world
Economic outlook in the Western Balkans. Peter Sanfey Deputy Director, Country Economics and Policy Vice Presidency Policy and Partnerships, EBRD
Economic outlook in the Western Balkans Peter Sanfey Deputy Director, Country Economics and Policy Vice Presidency Policy and Partnerships, EBRD 1 December 16 Short-term growth prospects Have improved
August 2012 Euro area international trade in goods surplus of 6.6 bn euro 12.6 bn euro deficit for EU27
146/2012-16 October 2012 August 2012 Euro area international trade in goods surplus of 6.6 12.6 deficit for EU27 The first estimate for the euro area 1 (EA17) trade in goods balance with the rest of the
REPORT FROM THE COMMISSION TO THE EUROPEAN PARLIAMENT, THE COUNCIL, THE EUROPEAN ECONOMIC AND SOCIAL COMMITTEE AND THE COMMITTEE OF THE REGIONS
EUROPEAN COMMISSION Brussels,.4.29 COM(28) 86 final/ 2 ANNEXES to 3 ANNEX to the REPORT FROM THE COMMISSION TO THE EUROPEAN PARLIAMENT, THE COUNCIL, THE EUROPEAN ECONOMIC AND SOCIAL COMMITTEE AND THE COMMITTEE
Caucasus and Central Asia Regional Economic Outlook
Juha Kähkönen International Monetary Fund November 212 Overview Global outlook (CCA) outlook and risks CCA macroeconomic policies CCA structural challenges 2 The global recovery has weakened 6 Global Manufacturing
THE INVERTING PYRAMID: DEMOGRAPHIC CHALLENGES TO THE PENSION SYSTEMS IN EUROPE AND CENTRAL ASIA
THE INVERTING PYRAMID: DEMOGRAPHIC CHALLENGES TO THE PENSION SYSTEMS IN EUROPE AND CENTRAL ASIA 1 Anita M. Schwarz Lead Economist Human Development Department Europe and Central Asia Region World Bank
CENTRAL BANK OF THE REPUBLIC OF TURKEY
CENTRAL BANK OF THE REPUBLIC OF TURKEY Growth and Financial System Durmuş YILMAZ Governor February, 211 1 Presentation Outline I. Recent Developments in the Turkish Economy II. III. Monetary Policy Policy
great place to live and to locate you business Ministry of Economy of the Republic of Moldova
Invest in Moldova great place to live and to locate you business Ministry of Economy of the Republic of Moldova Moldova a strategic location Proximity to key markets European Union Market Commonwealth
Credit guarantee schemes in Central, Eastern and South-Eastern Europe - a survey
Vienna Initiative 2 Credit guarantee schemes in Central, Eastern and South-Eastern Europe - a survey EBA-EIB-EIF seminar on Synthetic Securitisation and Financial Guarantees, 31 May 2016, London Áron Gereben
Courthouse News Service
14/2009-30 January 2009 Sector Accounts: Third quarter of 2008 Household saving rate at 14.4% in the euro area and 10.7% in the EU27 Business investment rate at 23.5% in the euro area and 23.6% in the
STAT/12/ October Household saving rate fell in the euro area and remained stable in the EU27. Household saving rate (seasonally adjusted)
STAT/12/152 30 October 2012 Quarterly Sector Accounts: second quarter of 2012 Household saving rate down to 12.9% in the euro area and stable at 11. in the EU27 Household real income per capita fell by
Restoring Fiscal Sustainability in Central and Eastern Europe: The Role of Budget Institutions
Restoring Fiscal Sustainability in Central and Eastern Europe: The Role of Budget Institutions Marco Cangiano Assistant Director Public Financial Management 6 th Annual Meeting of OECD-CESEE Senior Budget
Plenary Meeting of the Sectoral Social Dialogue Sector on Professional Football
BRUSSELS, 20 NOVEMBER 2014 Plenary Meeting of the Sectoral Social Dialogue Sector on Professional Football BRUSSELS, 20 NOVEMBER 2014 Welcome by the Chair 1 BRUSSELS, 20 NOVEMBER 2014 1. Adoption of agenda
Chart pack to council for cooperation on macroprudential policy
Chart pack to council for cooperation on macroprudential policy Contents List of charts... 3 Macro and macro-financial setting... 5 Swedish macroeconomic setting... 5 Foreign macroeconomic setting... Macro-financial
Quarterly Gross Domestic Product of Montenegro 2st quarter 2016
Government of Montenegro Statistical Office of Montenegro Quarterly Gross Domestic Product of Montenegro 2st quarter 2016 The release presents the preliminary data for quarterly gross domestic product
June 2014 Euro area international trade in goods surplus 16.8 bn 2.9 bn surplus for EU28
127/2014-18 August 2014 June 2014 Euro area international trade in goods surplus 16.8 bn 2.9 bn surplus for EU28 The first estimate for the euro area 1 (EA18) trade in goods balance with the rest of the
Borderline cases for salary, social contribution and tax
Version Abstract 1 (5) 2015-04-21 Veronica Andersson Salary and labour cost statistics Borderline cases for salary, social contribution and tax (Workshop on Labour Cost Survey, Rome, Italy 5-6 May 2015)
NPL resolution in the case of Romania
National Bank of Romania NPL resolution in the case of Romania June 2015 Financial Stability Department National Bank of Romania 1 Summary Main features of the Romanian banking sector Definition of NPL:
Sovereign Risks and Financial Spillovers
Sovereign Risks and Financial Spillovers International Monetary Fund October 21 Roadmap What is the Outlook for Global Financial Stability? Sovereign Risks and Financial Fragilities Sovereign and Banking
Domestic Debt Market Development in Poland Marek Szczerbak Republic of Poland Ministry of Finance Public Debt Department
Domestic Debt Market Development in Poland Marek Szczerbak Republic of Poland Ministry of Finance Public Debt Department DMF Stakeholders Forum 2011 Berne, 8-9 June 2011 1 I. Historical perspective 2 Developing
European Advertising Business Climate Index Q4 2016/Q #AdIndex2017
European Advertising Business Climate Index Q4 216/Q1 217 ABOUT Quarterly survey of European advertising and market research companies Provides information about: managers assessment of their business
CANADA EUROPEAN UNION
THE EUROPEAN UNION S PROFILE Economic Indicators Gross domestic product (GDP) at purchasing power parity (PPP): US$20.3 trillion (2016) GDP per capita at PPP: US$39,600 (2016) Population: 511.5 million
June 2012 Euro area international trade in goods surplus of 14.9 bn euro 0.4 bn euro surplus for EU27
121/2012-17 August 2012 June 2012 Euro area international trade in goods surplus of 14.9 0.4 surplus for EU27 The first estimate for the euro area 1 (EA17) trade in goods balance with the rest of the world
Approach to Employment Injury (EI) compensation benefits in the EU and OECD
Approach to (EI) compensation benefits in the EU and OECD The benefits of protection can be divided in three main groups. The cash benefits include disability pensions, survivor's pensions and other short-
Quarterly Financial Accounts Household net worth reaches new peak in Q Irish Household Net Worth
Quarterly Financial Accounts Q4 2017 4 May 2018 Quarterly Financial Accounts Household net worth reaches new peak in Q4 2017 Household net worth rose by 2.1 per cent in Q4 2017. It now exceeds its pre-crisis
EUROPA - Press Releases - Taxation trends in the European Union EU27 tax...of GDP in 2008 Steady decline in top corporate income tax rate since 2000
DG TAXUD STAT/10/95 28 June 2010 Taxation trends in the European Union EU27 tax ratio fell to 39.3% of GDP in 2008 Steady decline in top corporate income tax rate since 2000 The overall tax-to-gdp ratio1
World Economic and Financial Surveys. Regional Economic Outlook. Europe. Managing the Upswing in Uncertain Times MAY
World Economic and Financial Surveys Regional Economic Outlook Europe Managing the Upswing in Uncertain Times MAY 18 I N T E R N A T I O N A L M O N E T A R Y F U N D 218 International Monetary Fund Cataloging-in-Publication
MINIMUM WAGES ACROSS OECD COUNTRIES: BACK TO THE FUTURE?
Paris, 20 October 2017 MINIMUM WAGES ACROSS OECD COUNTRIES: BACK TO THE FUTURE? Andrea Garnero Economist Employment, Labour and Social Affairs OECD A widespread (but heterogenous) wage setting institution
EMPLOYMENT RATE Employed/Working age population (15-64 years)
1 EMPLOYMENT RATE 1980-2003 Employed/Working age population (15-64 years 80 % Finland (Com 75 70 65 60 EU-15 Finland (Stat. Fin. 55 50 80 82 84 86 88 90 92 94 96 98 00 02 9.9.2002/SAK /TL Source: European
Long Term Reform Agenda International Perspective
Long Term Reform Agenda International Perspective Asta Zviniene Sr. Social Protection Specialist Human Development Department Europe and Central Asia Region World Bank October 28 th, 2010 We will look
Financial wealth of private households worldwide
Economic Research Financial wealth of private households worldwide Munich, October 217 Recovery in turbulent times Assets and liabilities of private households worldwide in EUR trillion and annualrate
Enterprise Europe Network SME growth outlook
Enterprise Europe Network SME growth outlook 2018-19 een.ec.europa.eu 2 Enterprise Europe Network SME growth outlook 2018-19 Foreword The European Commission wants to ensure that small and medium-sized
CFA Institute Member Poll: Euro zone Stability Bonds
CFA Institute Member Poll: Euro zone Stability Bonds I. About the Survey... 2 a. Background... 2 b. Purpose and Methodology... 2 II. Full Results... 2 Q1: Requirement of common issuance of sovereign bonds...
Quarterly Gross Domestic Product of Montenegro 4 th quarter 2018 (p)
MONTENEGRO STATISTICAL OFFICE R E L E A S E No: 46 Podgorica, 22 March 2019 When using the data, please name the source Quarterly Gross Domestic Product of Montenegro 4 th quarter 2018 (p) The release
Turkey: Recent Developments and Future Prospects. ISBANK Economic Research Division October 2018
Turkey: Recent Developments and Future Prospects ISBANK Economic Research Division October 2018 Macroeconomic Outlook Strong Economic Growth Cycle GDP of 851 bn USD (2017), 10.6k USD (2017) per capita
DG TAXUD. STAT/11/100 1 July 2011
DG TAXUD STAT/11/100 1 July 2011 Taxation trends in the European Union Recession drove EU27 overall tax revenue down to 38.4% of GDP in 2009 Half of the Member States hiked the standard rate of VAT since
Turkey: Recent Developments and Future Prospects. ISBANK Economic Research Division May 2018
Turkey: Recent Developments and Future Prospects ISBANK Economic Research Division May 2018 Macroeconomic Outlook Strong Economic Growth Cycle GDP of 851 bn USD (2017), 10.6k USD (2017) per capita Average
Governor of the Bank of Latvia
Lessons from Latvia s internal adjustment strategy Ilmārs Rimšēvičs Governor of the Bank of Latvia September 4, 2012 Presentation outline Overheating of Latvia s economy Expansionary consolidation Lessons
EMPLOYMENT RATE Employed/Working age population (15 64 years)
EMPLOYMENT RATE 198 26 Employed/Working age population (15 64 years 8 % Finland 75 EU 15 EU 25 7 65 6 55 5 8 82 84 86 88 9 92 94 96 98 2 4** 6** 14.4.25/SAK /TL Source: European Commission 1 UNEMPLOYMENT
Macroeconomic scenarios for skill demand and supply projections, including dealing with the recession
Alphametrics (AM) Alphametrics Ltd Macroeconomic scenarios for skill demand and supply projections, including dealing with the recession Paper presented at Skillsnet technical workshop on: Forecasting
FDI in Central, East and Southeast Europe: Recovery amid Stabilising Economic Growth
Wiener Institut für Internationale Wirtschaftsvergleiche The Vienna Institute for International Economic Studies www.wiiw.ac.at wiiw FDI Report 217 FDI in Central, East and Southeast Europe: Recovery amid