Golden Aging in Emerging Europe and Central Asia

Transcription

1 Golden Aging in Emerging Europe and Central Asia Emily Sinnott Europe and Central Asia Region Working Group on Ageing, Seventh Meeting, Geneva November 20, 2014

2 Related Work Aging-related Studies Emerging Europe and Central Asia Eastern Europe and the Baltics Bulgaria: Aging and growth Latvia: Analysis for aging strategy Poland: Savings study and policy notes Romania: Analysis for aging strategy Russia Poverty and well-being Inequality Health Long-term care Family support policies Firm-level productivity Lifelong learning Labor participation Growth Fiscal Migration Aging in Europe and Central Asia 2

3 1. For Emerging Europe and Central Asia, the foremost challenge is to improve health Aging in Europe and Central Asia 3

4 Emerging Europe and Central Asia had smallest life expectancy gains in the world since 1960s Life expectancy gains lags behind other regions Aging in Europe and Central Asia 4

5 Room to live longer and become healthier Life expectancy at age 50 Healthy life expectancy at age 50 Japan Italy Netherlands Republic of France United States Germany Slovenia Finland Czech Republic Serbia Bosnia and Turkey Montenegro Albania Croatia Azerbaijan FYR Macedonia Poland Slovakia Estonia Armenia Romania Georgia Bulgaria Tajikistan Lithuania Uzbekistan Hungary Latvia Turkmenistan Moldova Kyrgyzstan Ukraine Russian Belarus Kazakhstan Source: Global Burden of Disease Study, Aging in Europe and Central Asia 5

6 What a difference sixty years makes: Ukraine s population structure in 2010 if mortality decline of France from Population Source: World Bank calculations using UN Population Data (2013). Aging in Europe and Central Asia 6

7 The cardiovascular revolution can bring great reduction in old-age mortality Causes of higher mortality in Emerging Europe and Central Asia compared to the EU-15 Cardiovascular disease Cancer Stroke Lower respiratory infections Cause of death HIV/AIDS Self-harm Road injury Liver cirrhosis Chronic obstructive pulmonary disease Stomach cancer Tuberculosis % total years of life lost in ECA Source: Global Burden of Disease Study 2010 (2013). Global Burden of Disease Study 2010 (GBD 2010) Results Seattle, WA, Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation (IHME). Accessed 27 June Aging in Europe and Central Asia 7

8 2. An increase in labor force participation can compensate for a fall in the working-age population Aging in Europe and Central Asia 8

9 Working-age population is projected to contract substantially in all but young Central Asia and Turkey Change in working-age population (15-64), in percent EU15 Northern & Central EU15 Southern EU Eastern Partnership & Russia Balkans Young -40 Sources: World Bank staff calculations based on Labor Force Survey, ILO and Eurostat.. Aging in Europe and Central Asia 9

10 Room to activate the reserve labor force 35% 30% 25% 20% 15% 10% 5% 0% Potential to increase Labor Force among year olds Georgia Kazakhstan Sweden Kyrgyzstan Ireland Estonia United Kingdom Latvia Azerbaijan Germany Lithuania Finland Denmark Moldova Portugal Netherlands Spain Bulgaria Russian Federation Czech Republic Austria Slovakia Ukraine Luxembourg Romania Greece France Italy Serbia Croatia Belgium Slovenia Hungary Turkey Poland Change in labor force participation Note: Potential gain is calculated as the projected increase in the size of the workforce aged if the population aged had the same participation rate as the age group in each country. Data are for 2008 for all countries except Georgia, Moldova, and Ukraine (2005) and the Kyrgyz Republic (2006). Sourcez: World Bank estimates based on World Development Indicators and labor force (ILO) and households surveys, latest years available. Aging in Europe and Central Asia 10

11 Dependency ratios can remain stable until 2030 if labor market participation rises Ratio of inactive over active people aged 15 and older, by sub-region, 1990 to EU15 and EFTA Western Balkans EU13 Eastern Partnership and Russia Turkey and Central Asia Note: The data presented is based on past estimates of actual participation rates between 1990 and 2010, ILO projections based on past trends between 2015 and 2030, and maximum participation scenario developed by World Bank staff (female participation rise, convergence with Iceland and longer working lives). Sources: World Bank staff calculations, based on ILO (2011) and UN (2013). Aging in Europe and Central Asia 11

12 Stock of human capital is projected to increase Emerging Europe and Central Asia: Total years of education, = Working-age population Total years of education in working-age population Source: World Bank staff calculations based on UN (2013) and Wittgenstein Centre data. Aging in Europe and Central Asia 12

13 How will the age structure of the labor force affect productivity? Cross-country evidence suggests that aggregate TFP is low when the labor force is very young or very old, compared to a labor force with many year olds Age Distribution of Workforce Simulated Aggregate TFP (in logs) Source: Based on estimates in Feyrer (2007). Aging in Europe and Central Asia 13

14 The aging brain can compensate Better-performing older participants compensated for age-related memory decline by reorganizing the episodic retrieval network Source: Daselaar and Cabeza (2004). Aging in Europe and Central Asia 14

15 Confronting three myths about work at older ages Myth 1: Older workers do not want to work and prefer retirement Fact: 2/3 prefer options of gradual retirement and part time work (EU27, Accession countries) 2. Myth 2: Older workers are less productive, more difficult hires Mixed evidence, but policies can be put in place to alleviate lower productivity or even increase it (e.g.: agediverse teams) 3. Myth 3: Lump of labor fallacy; old workers take jobs from young Well, it s a fallacy But older workers do face some barriers when looking for work and in the workplace Aging in Europe and Central Asia 15

16 There are significant (perceived) barriers to employment after 55 EU15 EU11 % reporting each reason as very, fairly, not very, not at all important, 2011 Attitudes of employers Excluded from training No gradual retirement Places are not adapted Lack of modern skills Pensions/tax systems Family care obligation Retire with partner Excluded from training No gradual retirement Attitudes of employers Pensions/tax systems Places are not adapted Lack of modern skills Retire with partner Family care obligation Source: Eurobarometer, % 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80% 90% 100% Very important Fairly important Not very important Not important at all Aging in Europe and Central Asia 16

17 3. Age dependency is not a concept that is fixed to time from birth Aging in Europe and Central Asia 17

18 Age not a concept fixed over time: 60 as the new 70 but not everywhere How old you have to be today to have the same mortality as a person of 60 in 1959 France Poland Czech Republic Slovenia Slovakia Bulgaria Estonia Lithuania Belarus Hungary Latvia Ukraine Russia Female Age Sources: World Bank staff calculations for all ECA countries with data available using Human Mortality Database. University of California, Berkeley (USA), and Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research (Germany), Aging in Europe and Central Asia 18

19 Dependency measured as disability diverges from chronological age definition Japan In percent Hungary Japan Hungary 5 0 Old age dependency ratio Adult disability dependency ratio Notes: Adult disability dependency ratio (ADDR) defined as the number of adults at least 20 years old with disabilities, divided by the number of adults at least 20 years without them. Source: Sanderson and Scherbov (2010). Aging in Europe and Central Asia 19

20 4. Fertility decline, not longevity increase, mostly explains aging Aging in Europe and Central Asia 20

21 Fertility transition is occurring much more rapidly that happened for richer countries France took 200 years and Korea just 17 years to move from the average woman having over 5 children to below replacement rate fertility 8 Korea ( ) Albania ( ) Russia ( ) Turkey ( ) England ( ) Total fertility rate (period average) Replaceme nt rate France England Russia Turkey Tajikistan Albania Korea Ireland Poland France ( ) Number of years 0 Aging in Europe and Central Asia 21

22 A Fertility Re-increase In Developed Countries? Myrskylä M., Kohler H.P., Billari F., 2009: Advances in development reverse fertility declines. Nature, 460(6). 107 countries, 1975 and : Negative Correlation Between HDI and TFR 2005: Positive Correlation for HDI > 0.9 Aging in Europe and Central Asia 22

23 5. Older people less likely to be vulnerable to poverty than other segments of the population Aging in Europe and Central Asia 23

24 100% 80% Pensions play key role in reducing old-age poverty 2006 Poverty rate by Age, Kazakhstan, $5/day PPP 60% 40% 20% 0% 100% 80% 60% 40% 20% Pensions play a very large poverty reduction role among older individuals 0% Age HH Income per Capita net of pensions HH Income per Capita Source: Kazakhstan Household Budget Survey, The World Bank. Aging in Europe and Central Asia 24

25 but pension reforms that lower coverage may increase poverty 100% 90% 80% 70% 60% 50% 40% 30% 20% 10% 0% Slovak Republic Poland Estonia Czech Republic Lithuania Croatia Latvia Hungary Russia Georgia Belarus Bulgaria Serbia Romania Bosnia Federation Republika Srpska Kazakhstan Tajikistan Turkey Kyrgyz Republic Albania Azerbaijan Armenia % of 65+ population receiving benefits Older advanced countries Older emerging countries Younger countries Source: The World Bank Aging in Europe and Central Asia 25

26 Reducing inequality over life course: Health presents a large challenge Higher excess mortality among the less educated in Russia, 2011 Source: Ivanova, A., E. Zemlyanova, Mikhaylov, A and Golovenkin, SE(2014). "The differences in mortality of adult population of Russia according level of education." Zdravookhranenie Rossiyskoy Federatsii 6: 4-8. Aging in Europe and Central Asia 26

27 6. Continued productivity gains are critical Aging in Europe and Central Asia 27

28 Emerging Europe and Central Asia old, but yet not wealthy share (%) UZB TJK KGZ AZE MDA UKR GEO ARM BGR ROU BLR RUS MKD ALB LVA TUR LTU POL SVK HRV HUN CZE Per capita wealth (ln) Source: UN Population Data (Revision 2012) and World Bank s Wealth of Nations database (2010). Aging in Europe and Central Asia 28

29 Healthy aging Active aging Prosperous aging From diagnostics to solutions 1. What do we know about what works? Europe and Japan have aging quicker learning about and sharing solutions 2. Where are the knowledge gaps? Policy options, designing new interventions, evaluations, pilots 3. What are the institutional needs? Challenge for governments in implementing multi-sectoral programs, with local governments often at the fore. Successful interventions involve a range of partners government, private sector, community groups, media Aging in Europe and Central Asia 29

30 World Bank Group 1818 H Street NW Washington, DC Thank you